Does a NATO-Russia war over Ukraine really mean a nuclear war?

北约与俄罗斯会不会就乌克兰问题爆发核战？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Progressives United

To me, a NATO-Russian war over Ukraine seems quite unlikely in that I cannot see any NATO country willing to join the fight over Ukraine. The only way that I can see it happening would be if Russia decided to attack one of the NATO countries for aiding Ukraine.

在我看来，北约与俄罗斯就乌克兰问题爆发战争似乎不太可能，因为我觉得没有哪个北约国家愿意加入乌克兰问题导致的战争。我认为发生这种情况的唯一导火索是，俄罗斯决定攻打某个援助乌克兰的北约国家。

I think that only Putin could answer the question of going nuclear. If Russia were to attack a NATO country, NATO en masse would respond (theoretically). Since NATO certainly does not need nuclear weapons to defeat Russia, I cannot imagine any one of the three nuclear-armed NATO countries resorting to nuclear weapons. Even if Putin were to use low-yield tactical nukes, NATO would not need to follow suit to defeat Russia.

我认为会不会爆发核战的问题，只有普京才能回答。如果俄罗斯要攻打某个北约国家，北约将集体做出回应(理论上)。因为北约无需核武器就能打败俄罗斯，我无法想象北约中那三个拥有核武器的国家有哪个会诉诸核武器。即便普京使用低当量战术核武器，北约也不需要效仿俄罗斯，用核武器挫败俄罗斯。

Finally, I suspect that Putin would use intercontinental, strategic nuclear weapons if he felt like the survival of Russia as a sovereign nation or his personal survival were at risk.

最后，我怀疑，如果普京觉得作为一个主权国家，俄罗斯的安危受到了威胁，或者他的个人生存受到威胁，他可能会使用洲际战略核武器。

Tomaž Vargazon

Related

Will Russia cause a nuclear war over Ukraine?

Ukrainians have shown they won’t balk at Russian forces trying to take their cities. Street fighting erupted in Kyiv and Harkiv both, with Russians witdrawing in both cases - presumably after having taken heavy losses.

俄罗斯会因乌克兰问题引发核战争吗？

乌克兰人已经表明，他们面对俄罗斯军队占领乌克兰城市的企图绝不会退让。基辅和哈尔科夫都爆发了巷战，俄罗斯人在这地都撤军了——也许遭受了重大损失。

There isn’t much nuclear weapons can help you out here. They can take out some of the city perhaps, but if defenders are determined you’ll need to reduce the city to rubble with nuclear weapons. It would take approxmately 10% of Russian nuclear arsenal, all of it in heavy duty warheads, just to take out those two cities alone. However if you do that you leave yourself wide open to a NATO first strike, seeing as you’re an obvious madman. With 10% of your strongest nuclear arsenal gone you may lack enough power to retalliate.

能发挥作用的核武器也不太多。也许俄罗斯能够摧毁某些城市，但如果守军下定决心，你就需要动用核武器才能把这座城市夷为平地。这可能需要耗费俄罗斯大约10%的核武器，清一色重型弹头，只是为了摧毁这两座城市。不过一旦俄罗斯这么做，就会给北约的第一次打击留下很大的空间，因为显然，在北约看来俄罗斯就是一个彻头彻尾的疯子。可是俄罗斯已经用掉了核武库中震慑力最强的10%，也许已经没有足够的力量进行反击了。

So that’s out of the question. Probably. For now anyway, Russia will try something else first. These were seen in Belarus yesterday:

所以这种情况不会发生。可能。无论如何，俄罗斯都会先试试其他方法。昨天在白俄罗斯就出现了这个装备：

TOS-1 launcher

The TOS-1 looks like any other rocket artillery, but these missiles have thermobaric warheads. Thermobaric warheads spread a mist of an incendiary (fuel of some sort, but even coal dust has that effect), then ignite it with a secondary explosion. The effect is devastating, first there is a fireball that burns everything in its path, then a massive and sudden drop of pressure rips your lungs apart. One of the two will kill you.

TOS-1喷火坦克

TOS-1的外观和其他火箭炮一样，但这些导弹有温压弹头。温压弹头可以将一团燃烧物(某种燃料，但用煤尘也能有同样的效果)扩散开来，然后用二次爆炸将其引燃。这种效果是毁灭性的，先是用一个火球烧毁途经遇到的一切，紧接着气压突然大幅下降，足以撕裂士兵的五脏六腑，总有一种会要了你的命。

These wepons were initially designed to take out the Taliban in the caves of Afghanistan during the Soviet war in that country. I imagine they would be effective at taking out defenders of a city though.

这些武器最初是为了在苏联战争期间消灭阿富汗藏身洞穴中的塔利班分子而设计的。我想这些武器足以摧毁一个城市的守军。

Jerry Idakabor

First, let’s make clear there is no NATO-Russia war over Ukraine right now. NATO is not a party in the current war. This is strictly Russia-Ukraine and the West is supply Ukraine with military aid.

首先，让我们明确一点，北约和俄罗斯之间目前并没有因为乌克兰问题发生战争。北约也不是俄乌战争的参战方。这是俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争，西方国家向乌克兰提供了军事援助。

Can the current situation degenerate to a war between nato and Russia? It’s possible but right now very unlikely. Why? Russia has avoided allowing it spill over into any nato country and has avoided using nukes or biological weapons in Ukraine that could bring nato confronting Russia over Ukraine.

目前的局势会不会恶化成北约和俄罗斯之间的战争？这一点有可能发生，但现在还为时尚早。为什么？俄罗斯一直不想让疫情蔓延到北约国家，也不在乌克兰使用可能导致北约与俄罗斯对抗的核武器或生物武器。

Now, a nato-Russia war, whether it’s over Ukraine or any other issues, in the future, does not mean a nuclear war but does mean the potential for a nuclear war is great because both sides have nuclear weapons and Russia doesn’t have the capacity to fight nato conventionally.

现在，北约和俄罗斯之间的战争，无论是因为乌克兰还是任何其他问题，都不意味着就会是一场核战争，但核战争的可能性确实很大，因为双方都拥有核武器，若是常规作战，俄罗斯无力对抗北约。

NATO will, without a single doubt, obliterate a Russian side in conventional warfare so much so Russia will quickly feel it is at an exstential threat level and may reach for a nuclear weapon.

毫无疑问，北约会在常规战争中击败俄罗斯，俄罗斯会觉得国家存亡受到威胁，因此可能会启用核武器。

Both sides have clashed in proxy wars since the days of the Soviet Union but those wars were very far from Russia’s borders and from the borders of nato States- this is not a proxy war for Russia, Russia is invading Ukraine and Ukraine is right at Russia’s border- this is the reason this Russia-Ukraine war is seen as a nuclear war trigger if nato was to get directly involved.

自苏联成立以来，双方都通过代理战争发生过冲突，但这些战争都远离俄罗斯边境和北约国家的边境——俄罗斯出兵乌克兰，乌克兰就在俄罗斯的边境上——因此如果北约直接参与，这场俄乌战争就会被视为核战争触发器。

Heather Fredeking

Should the war somehow escalate to a NATO-Russia War it does not necessitate a nuclear war. Both Russia and at least three NATO nations possess nuclear weapons but everyone involved understands that the launch of a single nuclear weapon will be responded to by a retaliatory nuclear strike.

如果这场战争升级成北约和俄罗斯之间的战争，倒未必就会是核战争。俄罗斯和至少三个北约国家都拥有核武器，但相关各方都明白，只要任何一方率先发射核武器，必然会遭到报复性的核打击。

The long ago agreement was that nuclear weapons would exst to deter opponents from using those weapons.

Additionally, I cannot imagine Putin will allow the war in Ukraine to escalate.

很久以前，各国签订过协议，约定核武器的存在是为了威慑对手使用这些武器。

此外，我无法想象普京会允许乌克兰战争进一步升级。

Therefore, paranoia about nuclear war is really unnecessary. Plus, you are worrying about something you cannot control. Worry and stress is of no value, it gives you wrinkles, grey hair, increases cortisol levels increasing weight gain, blood sugar/glucose levels, cause cardiovascular problems, and digestive disorders. There is enough likely occurrences to be concerned with without worrying about nuclear war.

因此，对核战争的无端恐惧是没有必要的事。另外，你担心的事是你无法控制的。担心和压力没有价值，只会让你徒长皱纹，徒长白发，增加皮质醇水平，体重上涨，血糖/葡萄糖水平升高，引起心血管问题和消化紊乱等。这个世界上值得关注的新闻多如牛毛，没有必要为核战争杞人忧天。

PLEASE NOTE: If your convictions are strong enough move you to reply negatively, I applaud you, as long as you do not disable reply, if you are rude, insulting, demeaning, aggressive or lewd, are a troll, promote Kremlin or anti-West propaganda your comment will be deleted. Please remember children use this site. Civil dialogue, however is encouraged

请注意：如果你强烈坚信核战会爆发，你坚持这种悲观想法，只要你不关闭评论，我也会为你鼓掌；但如果你粗鲁，无礼，贬低他人，咄咄逼人或粗俗下流，如果你是一个喷子，力挺克里姆林宫或抹黑西方，我一定会删除你的评论。请记住，孩子们也会浏览这些内容的。不过，我支持友善的对话。

Naghi Fayyaz

No, not at all, for example, because of the war in Ukraine, there is no nuclear war;

in my opinion, despite the turmoil in the behavior of the Russian rulers, I can only predict a nuclear war in two ways:

不，完全不可能，不会因为乌克兰的战争导致核战争；

在我看来，俄罗斯统治者不按常理出牌，我只能从两个方面预测：

1. In a severe military conflict between Russia and NATO, NATO forces enter Russian territory.

2. Russia uses nuclear missiles to defend itself against a nuclear attack from the West.

1. 俄罗斯和北约之间爆发严重军事冲突，北约部队进入俄罗斯领土。

2. 俄罗斯使用核导弹来防御来自西方的核攻击。

In other cases, the Russian rulers are only exaggerating and making baseless claims about nuclear war, and this is to intimidate the West, otherwise, even those inside the atomic shelters in Russia, know that:" the first atomic attack by Russia, would be tantamount to ending Russia's map of the planet", and they would never really go for atomic war.

除此之外，俄罗斯统治者只会夸大说辞，毫无根据地声称将启动核战争，目的就是为了恐吓西方国家。否则那些藏身于俄罗斯原子弹避难所内的人都知道：”俄罗斯一旦率先使用核弹，俄罗斯就会从地球版图上被抹去”，他们决不会真正发动原子战争。

Progressives United

If NATO and Russia were to get in a war Putin could turn it into a nuclear war. I can’t see any way NATO would get in a war with Russia. If Putin calls NATO hel the Ukrainians defend themselves a war of NATO on Russia, as he flirts with, he could start attacking NATO. He would be insane to do so. NATO would win a conventional war, and NATO (unless run by an insane leader) would not invade Russia or attempt to take it over [which would be the triggers for Russia to go nuclear]. No one would use nukes on the other side unless they were deranged.

如果北约和俄罗斯开战，普京可能会把它升级成核战争。我不认为北约会和俄罗斯开战。

如果普京称北约帮助乌克兰人自卫就是北约对俄罗斯开战，就像他开玩笑时说的那样，他可能会将矛头对准北约。

他如果真的这么做，就太疯狂了。北约通过常规战争就能打赢俄罗斯，而且北约（除非换一个疯狂的领导人）不会入侵俄罗斯或企图接管俄罗斯（这会是俄罗斯启动核武器的触发因素）。没有人会将核武器用在对方身上，除非他们真的疯了。

So I don’t think such a war will ever happen.

所以我认为这种战争永远不会发生。

Jan Stubbs

No, but it would increase the risk of nuclear war. In the unlikely event that NATO forces enter the war, they would easily overcome the Russian forces. Given that Putin hates losing, and knowing how fearful the West is of a nuclear exchange, he might be tempted to try it on a small scale.

不会，但核战争的风险会增加。如果北约军队加入战争，他们可以轻松战胜俄罗斯军队。考虑到普京不能容忍俄罗斯战败，也知道西方对核战争有多么恐惧，他可能会忍不住挑起小规模的核战争。

Vic Nou

It's entirely up to Mr Putin.

Mr Putin was a KGB colonel trained to lie deceive blackmail bully threaten abuse and KILL.

He is capable to brainwash individuals institutions and countries.

He's using the law and his position to frame the innocent the weak and the vulnerable.

Russia will be a pariah state if he's continuing to be the president.

这完全取决于普京。

普京曾是克格勃上校，接受过撒谎、欺骗、勒索、恐吓、虐待和杀戮的训练。

他有能力对个人、政府部门和各国进行洗脑。

他利用法律和自己的地位陷害无辜的弱者和弱势群体。

如果他继续当总统，俄罗斯注定成为被世界遗弃的国家。

Harold Cohn

If the Ukraine continues to be used as a proxy warrior for Biden and NATO, there may be nuclear in the Ukraine as last resort for Russia! I do not believe Biden or NATO will take any action if this happens!

如果乌克兰继续作为拜登和北约的傀儡勇士，乌克兰可能会爆发核战，这是俄罗斯的最后手段！如果真的发生这种情况，我不相信拜登或北约会采取行动！

Progressives United

I'm hopeful that cooler Russian military heads will keep Putin's unrealized military ambitions in check! Starting a Nuclear War is a little hard to end! But, if the former sociopathic KGB killer starts a Nuclear War, the combined number of Nukes of NATO far out number Russian Nukes considerably, not that would matters if Western Civilization ends!

我希望头脑还比较冷静的俄罗斯军官能够遏制普京未能实现的军事野心！核战争一旦启动，是很难结束的！但是，如果这位前克格勃真的发动核战争，北约的核武器总数可远远超过俄罗斯，就算西方文明因此终结，也无关紧要！