Will India be the the world's leading power in 2050?

到2050年，印度能成为世界头号强国吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Venkatanarayanan Ganapathi

A week feels like an eternity in politics. And 2050 is 27 years away. Not even a sane Astrologer would dare to predict. But what do we mean by ‘leading power’? Is it in the economic or military sense? The crystal ball is fogged up. We are living in a faster-than-you-can-imagine changing world and so, there are a lot of ifs and buts to my views:

在政坛局势中，一个礼拜就足够改天换地了。2050年是27年以后的事了，占星家也不敢妄加预测。但是我们所说的“头号大国”是什么意思？是在经济上还是在军事上？水晶球也看不分明。我们生活在一个变化之快超乎想象的世界里，所以，在我看来，一切都存在着很多“如果”和“但是”。

1.     Militarily we are already a leading power with sufficient deterrent capabilities. But are we in a position to project our power beyond our shores like the US? Not yet. For that to happen, India needs to build its infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities. For that you need the political vision and will. And a huge amount of money. Which leads us to the next point

1.     军事上，我们已经是一个拥有足够威慑能力的军事大国了。但我们能像美国那样向海外施加军事影响力吗？还不行。要实现这一目标，印度需要建设基础设施和制造能力。印度需要有政治远见和坚定决心，以及一大笔资金。而这就引出下一个问题

2.     Economically, India is doing quite nicely, despite the buffetting we are getting due to the weakening rupee and increasing price of oil. But again, we need to do something quickly to reduce our vulnerability to shocks such as these. But let us look at the even bigger picture.

2.     经济上，印度的表现相当亮眼，虽然我们受到了卢比贬值和油价上涨的冲击。但同样，我们需要迅速采取行动，让自己在面对冲击时不那么脆弱。我们要着眼大局。

3.     India needs to invest much, much more in building its intellectual assets. Today, we rank 130 among 189 countries in terms of the Human Development Index. Norway was ranked first. So, you can see how much ground we have to cover. We need to spend much, much more on education healthcare and infrastructure, and work our butts off to narrow the huge development gaps that exst between states.

3.     印度必须加大投资，加强知识资产的建设。今天，印度的人类发展指数在189个国家中排名第130位。挪威排名第一。所以，我们还任重而道远。我们必须在教育、医疗和基础设施方面投入更多资金，努力缩小邦与邦之间的巨大发展差距。

Can India overcome these challenges by 2050? I think we have the capability. With political sagacity (which is not a small if) and will, and a not-too-hostile external environment, we should be able to get within striking distance of the number 1.

2050年，印度能完成这些挑战吗？我认为印度是有这个能力的。我们有政治远见(这非常重要)和意愿，加上一个相对友好的外部环境，我们应该有能力成为头号大国。

Ray Comeau

NO, and we are talking about economic power really. Military and soft power are just as elusive as economic.

不可能，我说的是经济实力。军事、软实力也和经济实力一样难以捉摸。

India has huge internal issues to resolve for its development and I doubt 30 years is a long enough time frame for India, given little evidence at the moment that the government has any serious plans to tackle the biggest issues before it.

India is not growing at a rate that exceeds China’s. That type of result will not close the huge gap between the two.

印度有很多内部问题亟需解决，我觉得没有个30年是解决不了的，目前政府也完全没有制订任何计划来解决迫在眉头的严重问题。

印度的增长速度比中国慢。这样的结果不可能缩小两国之间的巨大差距。

India has a lot to rectify to get its economy towards the potential it has.

India is forecast to add some 400 million people over the next 30 years and if there is not work for them when they reach working age, it will add to India poverty roles.

印度需要在很多方面进行改进，才能发挥经济潜力。

印度在未来30年内可能会增加4亿人口，如果他们达到工作年龄时找不到工作，印度的贫困问题就会进一步加剧。

Sivaram Krishnan

Consider the following leading countries. What areas do they excel in?

看看下面这些国家。他们在哪些领域表现出色呢？

Russia – Energy, Military

Britain – Automobile, Finance, Aircraft

France – Cuisine, Aircraft, Fashion, Railways

Germany – Automobile, Chemicals, Manufacturing

Japan – Automobile, Electronics, Manufacturing, Railways

China – Electronics, Manufacturing, Textiles, Railways

俄罗斯-能源，军事

英国-汽车，金融，飞机

法国-烹饪，飞机，时尚，铁路

德国-汽车，化工，制造

日本-汽车，电子，制造，铁路

中国-电子，制造，纺织，铁路

Now, the same list for the US, the sole sup in 2018.

Energy, Automobile, Finance, Beverage, Aircraft, Entertainment, Software, Hardware, Chemicals, Manufacturing, Military, Education, Food, Textiles, Pharma, Media, Sports

现在，再看看美国这个唯一的超级大国。

能源、汽车、金融、酒水、飞机、娱乐、软件、硬件、化工、制造、军事、教育、食品、纺织、医药、媒体、体育

What are the chances that India will become pre-eminent in as many of these sectors? Low.

If all the stars align, India can excel in the following:

印度在这些领域出人头地的机会有多大？机会渺茫啊。

如果一切顺利，印度倒是可以在以下方面崭露头角：

Automobile - Assembly, manufacturing and some design

Food - Already one of the largest producers/consumers

Entertainment - Bollywood and it daughters

汽车-组装、制造及部分设计

食品-已经是全球最大的生产国/消费国之一

娱乐-宝莱坞

Software

Manufacturing - If Make in India succeeds

Textiles - One of the powerhouses

软件

制造业-如果“印度制造”取得成功的话

纺织业-印度经济的驱动力之一

Pharma - Largest producer of Generics

Sports - Cricket, hockey, Kabaddi

But pre-eminence is still far away……….

制药-最大的仿制药生产国

运动-板球，曲棍球，卡巴迪

但印度离出人头地还差得很远..........

Kaizad Mistry

India got independence in 1947

By 2047 or 2050 India will manage to achieve 100% literacy and develope better infrastructure related to faster railways having all passanger trains running between 200 to 300 kmph old bullet train technology of Japan and other transportation such as having more airport seaport riverport expresshighways etc.

印度于1947年获得独立。

到2047年或2050年，印度将实现100%的识字率，基础设施也可以实现升级：铁路提速，所有客运列车时速提升到200至300公里/小时，建造更多机场、海港、河港、高速公路等。

India would have good supply of electricity and complete electric vehicles. By 2050

So basically by 2047 or 2050 onwards India will manage to achieve population control and gradually become 100% educated and it will take atleast another 50 years more to become a super power

到2050年，印度会拥有充足的电力供应和技术成熟的电动汽车。

所以基本上截止2047年或2050年，印度会控制住人口规模，慢慢实现教育100%普及，再过50年，印度就有望成为超级大国了。

Even If India manages to control population growth caste reservations corruption and many other things. Then i think India can reach the same level of developed countries in 2097 .After 150 years of independence.

May be in my next birth if I am born in 2047 or 2050 again in India. I will be able to see it becoming a super power by 2097.

就算印度控制住人口增长速度，种姓预留制度，腐败等诸多问题，我认为印度在独立150年后，即2097年前后，才能达到发达国家的水平。

如果我能在2047年或2050年重新转世，生在印度，我就有望见证印度在2097年成为一个超级大国了。

Jagabandhu Mishra

Reservation, caste based politics and bribe will put brakes on the fast development of India. The middle class will not grow as the upper class or the poor grow in India. Discontent will rise among middle class. Government will not be able to manage the discontent among the middle class. The farmers lobby will also create havoc in the name of farm loan waiver and free power.

The major problem may be high price of crude and fall of Rupee. If alternative sources are not established soon, the growth may slide down very sharp. The dream of crossing 3 trillion US Dollar GDP by 2020 may not happen. The population growth in lower strata and illegal migration may also halt the growth curve.

But India will remain a very important power in the next 200 years. No one can subdue India as done in the past. It may remain at number three, four or five. But India remains a force in the world in terms of economy and military power. The voice of India will be heard by all the top nations of the world. India may not dictate terms to all. But no one can dictate terms to India after 2025. 2050 is far to visualise. By that time India may be in the big league of the nations in the world.

预留制、种姓政治和贪污受贿会阻碍印度的快速发展。印度的中产阶级不可能像上层阶级或穷人那样增长。中产阶级的不满情绪将会积累升级。政府无力压制中产阶级的不满。农民游说团也会打着免除农业贷款和免费用电的名义制造混乱。

最重要的问题可能是原油价格高企和卢比贬值。如果不尽快选定替代来源，经济增长会急转直下。到2020年，印度GDP突破3万亿美元的梦想可能无法实现。底层人口的增长和非法移民也可能阻断经济增长。

但在未来200年里，印度都会是一个非常重要的大国。再没有哪个国家能像过去那样征服印度。印度可能会保持在第三、第四或第五名的位置。但就经济和军事实力而言，印度一直都会是全球一支强大的力量。世界各国都要听取印度的意见。在2025年之后，印度可能没有实力对所有国家发号施令，但也没有谁能对印度发号施令。2050年还很遥远。等到那个时候，印度可能已经是世界上最强大的国家之一了。

Prabhakar Rallabhandi

India may not become the world leading power in 2050 but it will be certainly in top 3 and that should be enough for its future- assuming that the world has one post 2050

印度可能没办法在2050年成为世界领先大国，但肯定能挤进前三，这对印度而言也足够了。

This is because there is at present a lot of gap between US,China and India in terms of GDP and GDP per capita . Even with growth rates moderating in US and China and assuming > 5% growth in India( 2030–50) ,this gap is too big to be bridged. The demographic advantage that India has at present over the other major economies is not enough to overcome this .

我这么说，是因为目前美国、中国和印度在GDP和人均GDP方面存在很大差距。就算美国和中国的增长率放缓，就算印度(2030 - 2050年)能保持5%以上的增长率，这一差距短期内也无法弥合。印度目前相对于其他主要经济体的人口优势也尚不足以弥补如此大的差距。

But there are also several riders which can affect prosperity of different countries and Global warming is the most serious . No one knows which country will be submerged by melting of glaciers and when and how the rain and weather pattern of the world will be impacted due to global warming . We should hope that the world will not head for apocalypse and mass destruction due to global warming

但是也有一些因素可以影响各国的未来，全球变暖是齐总最严重的因素。没有人知道哪个国家会因为冰川融化而被淹没，也没有人知道全球变暖将在何时以何种方式影响世界的降雨和天气。我们要祈祷世界不会因为全球变暖而走向末日和毁灭。

Ernest W. Adams

Related

Is India a world power? If it is not now, will it become one in the future? If so, approxmately when will it?

印度是世界强国吗？如果现在还不是，以后会是吗？如果是这样的话，大概要等到什么时候？

It’s getting there, but it has enough internal problems to prevent it from flexng its muscles abroad. Also, the never-ending hassle over J&K and the border with China keep it distracted from other things.

If India can resolve its endemic poverty and raise its standard of living and its literacy rate, it will be a world power. At the moment it is a regional power.

I suspect it will take another 50 years.

印度正在向着这个目标迈进，但目前国内还有很多问题，牵制了印度的发展。此外，查谟克什米尔和中印边界的无休止的争吵让印度无暇关注其他事情。

如果印度能够解决地方性贫困问题，提高民众生活水平和识字率，印度必将成为世界强国。目前印度只能算是地区大国。

我估计还需要50年的时间。

Akshay Sandu

Related

What will be the future of India by 2050?

India will be second largest economy after china in 2050.

India’s GDP will share total 16% of Cumulative global GDP growth between 2016 and 2050.

到2050年，印度会发展成什么样子？

2050年，印度将成为仅次于中国的第二大经济体。

到2050年这段时间，印度GDP将占全球累计GDP增长的16%。

(1.) The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstrip population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements

(2.) Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average

(1) 到2050年，世界经济规模可能会增加一倍以上，远远超过人口增长，原因是技术推动生产率不断提高

(2) 新兴市场(E7)的平均增长速度可能是发达经济体(G7)的两倍

As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th).

因此，预计到2050年，世界七大经济体中会出现六个新兴经济体，其中就有中国(第一)、印度(第二)和印度尼西亚(第四)居首。

The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050.

到2050年，美国在全球GDP排名中可能会降至第三位，而欧盟27国在全球GDP中所占的份额可能会降至10%以下。