莫迪对美国国会表示“印度很快就会成为世界第三大经济体”，这可能吗

Modi tells the US Congress that "India will soon be the third largest economy in the world", is this possible?

莫迪对美国国会表示“印度很快就会成为世界第三大经济体”，这事可能吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Ray Comeau

Absolutely it is possible. It is a matter of how and when.

There are two established methods for comparing economies using different currencies.

这绝对是有可能的，只是时间和方式的问题。

针对使用不同货币的经济体，我们有2种公认的比较方法。

The old method is using foreign exchange market rates to convert all non-USD currencies into US dollars. This method is what mainstream media publishes because it the oldest method and the simplest to understand. However the flaw in this method is that foreign exchange market rates have nothing to do with the size of the economy. the FX market is like a commodity market, currency traders affect the value of the currency through trades.

旧的方法是基于外汇市场的汇率，将所有非美元货币折算成美元。这种方法是主流媒体发布的方法，是最早也最容易理解的方法。但这种方法有一个缺点，也就是外汇市场的汇率和经济规模没有必然联系。外汇市场就像商品市场，外汇交易员通过外汇交易左右货币的价值。

The newer method is called purchase price parity (PPP). It creates the equivalent of an international dollar to determine the amount each economy produces (GDP). PPP is a more realistic yardstick (not perfect but better than FX rates) of much was produced.

If country "A" and "C" each produce the exact same hammer, but it costs $5 for "A" to produce it by the value of its currency; but cost "B" $1 to produce it, did "A"'s economy really produce 5 times then "B"?

Here is the GDP of the top economies -

新的方法被称为购买力平价(PPP)，先确立一美元的等价物，再衡量每个经济体的生产总值(GDP)。购买力平价是一个更贴合实际的衡量方式(虽然不尽完美，但已经胜过直接用汇率来对比)。

如果国家“A”和“C”生产完全相同的锤子，但“A”生产它的成本按其货币价值计算是5美元;但是B的成本是1美元，A的经济产出真的是B的5倍吗?

以下是世界头部经济体的GDP

India is rising. Under one method India is 5th. Under the other method, it is 3rd.

印度正在崛起。用方法一来衡量，印度排名第五，但用另一种方法来看印度已经是第三了。

Eric Wang

Modi is betting on India’s sheer population size, if everything goes well. The recent retreats of foreign investors seem to suggest otherwise. Modi is a blowhard fence-sitter.

莫迪只是把希望押在印度庞大的人口规模上罢了。最近外国投资的撤离似乎表明情况并不乐观。莫迪就是一个爱吹牛皮的墙头草。

Sumanth Murthy

Yes.

Japan is a fast aging society and Germany has some issues with energy.

Naturally, India will be the third largest economy.

是的。

日本是一个快速老龄化的社会，德国在能源方面也遇到了一些问题。

所以，印度会跻身第三大经济体。

We need to compare PER-WORKER PRODUCTIVITY to truly assess the performance of an economy.

The per-worker productivity of Japan still remains very high.

Because the median age is around 50, the GDP growth has essentially stagnated at around $4.5 trillion.

我们要比较每个工人的生产率，才能真正评估一个经济体的表现。

日本的人均生产率处于领先地位。

由于日本的中位数年龄在50岁左右，GDP增长基本上停滞在4.5万亿美元左右。

On Demand Journalism

India's economic growth rate has been steadily increasing, with a 7.6% growth rate in the year 2015-2016. This growth is expected to continue, with the International Monetary Fund predicting a growth rate of 7.5% in the year 2016-2017. Additionally, India's own government has set a target of achieving a 10% growth rate in the next few years.

印度的经济增长率一直在稳步提升，2015-2016年的增长率为7.6%。这一增长速度有望保持，国际货币基金组织预测印度2016-2017年的增长率为7.5%。此外，印度政府将未来几年的增长率目标定在10%。

India's rapidly growing population also plays a significant role in its economic growth potential. With over 1.3 billion people, India has the second-largest population in the world. This means there is a large workforce and a substantial consumer base, both of which are crucial for economic growth.

印度快速增长的人口也在其经济增长潜力中发挥了重要的作用。印度人口超过了13亿，是世界第二大人口国。这意味着印度有庞大的劳动力和大量的消费者基础，这两者都对经济增长至关重要。

Furthermore, the Indian government has been implementing economic reforms to attract foreign investment and promote entrepreneurship. Initiatives such as "Make in India" and "Digital India" have been launched to boost manufacturing and innovation in the country. In addition, the government's efforts to simplify regulations and improve infrastructure have also contributed to India's economic growth.

此外，印度政府一直在实施经济改革，吸引外国投资、鼓励创业。印度启动了“印度制造”和“数字印度”等计划来刺激制造业和创新。此外，印度政府简化法规、改善基础设施的努力也为印度的经济增长做出了贡献。

Despite these positive developments, there are still challenges that India must overcome in order to become the third largest economy in the world. The country faces issues such as corruption, poverty, and a large informal economy. Moreover, India's economic growth rate has slowed down in the past due to global economic factors, such as the 2008 financial crisis.

虽然印度有了这些积极的发展，但印度还需克服某些挑战才能成为世界第三大经济体。印度面临着腐败、贫困和庞大的非正规经济等问题。此外，印度受到全球经济的影响(如2008年金融危机)，经济增长速度有所放缓。

However, if India continues on its current growth trajectory and makes progress on addressing these challenges, it is certainly possible for Modi's claim to become a reality in the near future.

但如果印度继续保持目前的增长轨迹，并在应对这些挑战方面取得进展，莫迪的说法当然有可能在不久的将来成为现实。

References:

- International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Update

- Government of India. (n.d.). Make in India

- Government of India. (n.d.). Digital India

- The World Bank. India.

参考数据：

—国际货币基金组织。《世界经济展望》

—印度政府。印度制造

—印度政府。数字印度

—世界银行。印度。

Samaksh Rawal

Can India become the world's third largest economy if yes when?

YES.

印度能成为世界第三大经济体吗?

能。

Let us play with some numbers:

我们一起来玩玩数字转换游戏吧：

USA has 23.5 trillion dollar economy.

China has 18 trillion dollar economy.

India has approxmately 2 trillion dollar economy.

Our large imports do not count as a part of our GDP whereas our exports do. We need to import less and export more.

美国的经济规模：23.5万亿美元。

中国的经济规模：18万亿美元。

印度的经济规模：约2万亿美元。

我们的大量进口不属于我们GDP，而出口可以。所以我们必须减少进口，增加出口。

We have to follow four goals to reach the status of developed nation.

Goal 1

The goal should be to reach the third position in GDP terms in the world, after the USA and China by 2022.

Goal 2

By 2030 or earlier, India should aim to rank in the top fifty in the world in GDP per capita, with an aim to reach the twenty-fifth rank.

Goal 3

Making India terrorism free by 2020 and total ban on crime against women.

Goal 4

Making India harmonious.

要实现发达国家的地位，我们必须遵循四个目标。

目标1

目标：到2022年，印度的GDP达到世界第三，仅次于美国和中国。

目标2

到2030年或更早，印度的人均GDP方面跻身世界前50名，努力达到第25名。

目标3

到2020年，印度摆脱恐怖主义，全面清零针对妇女的犯罪行为。

目标4

印度实现和谐融洽。

In addition to above goals. We need to do reforms.

Sector-wise reforms for a developed India:

除了上述目标，我们还需要进行改革。

分部门进行改革，实现印度的发展：

Agriculture

农业

1.Making all rain-fed arable land of India irrigated in some form. A 90% coverage of all arable land within a decade should be the target.

2.24*7 availability of electricity.

3.Skill development of farm workers.

4.Improvement of supply chain is vital.

1.印度所有可耕地都获得灌溉设施。十年内耕地覆盖率应达到90%。

2.实现24*7的电力供应。

3.农场工人学习新技能。

4.改善物流情况，这一点至关重要。

5.Generate commercial level GM varieties out of Indian innovation.

6.More cleaner and greener agriculture including organic farming.

7.Special attention to growing of pulses. We still import lot of pulses.

8.Generation of completely stable IP’s in the country.

9.Rise of Agropreneurs. We need more agriculture cooperatives.

5.利用印度的创新能力，培育商业化的转基因品种。

6.发展更清洁、更绿色的农业生产技术，包括有机农业。

7.重视豆类的种植。我们每年都需要进口很多豆子。

8.研发自主知识产权。

9.鼓励农业企业家创业。印度需要更多的农业合作社。

Manufacturing

制造业

1.Rationalise Tax Regimes

2.Monitor the progress of approved projects.

3.More attention to MSMEs- They are the backbone of Manufacturing.

4.Create new MSMEs

5.Remove Red Tapism- Approve plans in 3 months.

1.税收制度合理化

2.监督已批准项目的推进进度。

3.关注中小微企业-它们才是制造业的支柱力量。

4.鼓励中小微企业队伍的壮大

5.简化政务—将审批周期控制在3个月内。

7.Environmental Laws- Make them Industry friendly.

8.Revise labour laws- Ensure maxmum employment.

9.Aim High- 100 Mega Manufacturing Indian companies.

10.Domestic production of Defence related equipment.

11.Sensitization towards IPR.

7.修订环境法—支持工业发展。

8.修订劳动法—保障最大限度的就业。

9.树立远大目标：打造100家大型制造企业。

10.实现国防武器装备的国产。

11.重视知识产权。

Mining

Mines-” Temples of modern India”.

采矿业

矿山—“现代印度的寺庙”。

1.Give special status to mining sector.

2.Reduce delays in permits and clearances. Create a sense of confidence in the sector.

3.Increase efforts for surveys and pre-exploration studies. Private players should be encouraged to do this.

4.Cost effective mineral transport systems should be planned.

1.优先发展采矿业。

2.缩短许可证和通关的审批时间，提振行业信心。

3.加大调查和勘探前的研究力度，鼓励私营企业参与。

4.规划建设具备成本效益的矿石运输系统。

5.Re-skill the exsting workforce and adequately skill new entrants to the sector.

6.Use of modern technology for efficient production, reduction of pollution and workers’ safety.

7.Value addition activities should be encouraged around the mines. Many local people will get better paying jobs.

8.Locate thermal power plants near the mines.

6.利用现代技术提高生产效率，减少污染，保障工人安全。

7.鼓励在矿山周围开展增值业务。让当地人得到收入更高的工作。

8.在矿山附近建设火力发电厂。

Road Infrastructure

Our target:

道路基础设施

我们的目标：

1.National Highways - 50 km per day.

2.State Highways - 100 km per day.

3.Rural Roads - 1000 km per day.

1.国道—每天铺设50公里。

2.国家高速公路—每天铺设100公里。

3.农村公路—每天铺设1000公里。

Chemical

化工

1.The Industry should look for feed stocks alternate to the current modes of crude oil and natural gas.

2.Encourage in-house production of PVC, Acrylic acid, Phenol and Methanol in large quantities.

3.Shale gas needs urgent attention.

4.Repair and upgrade Indian fertiliser plants.

5.Step up the R&D process.

6.Safety aspects of the workers and plants are extremely important.

1.寻找当前原油和天然气模式的替代原料。

2.鼓励国内生产PVC、丙烯酸、苯酚和甲醇。

3.关注页岩气的开采。

4.修复和升级印度的化肥生产企业。

5.加快研发过程。

6.工人和工厂的安全极其重要。

Telecom

电信

1.Broadband for all with a minimum download speed of 2 MBps

2.Increasing rural teledensity to 70 percent and to 100 percent by 2020.

3.Liberalisation of spectrum and convergence of network, services and devices.

4.Unified licensing, de-linking of spectrum from licences, online real-real time submission and processing.

1.普及宽带，最低下载速度达到2mbps

2. 将农村电话普及率提高到70%，然后提高到100%。

3.开放频谱，使网络、服务和设备得以衔接。

4.统一牌照，解除频谱与牌照的捆绑，实现线上实时提交和处理。

Health Care

医疗

1.Tele-education of the rural and small-town doctors to improve their clinical knowledge and update them on the latest development in patient treatment.

2.A large number of mobile diagnostic centres across the country , with modern equipment and a power generator, to reach people in remote corners.

1.为农村和小城镇的医生提供远程教育，提高他们的临床知识水平，让他们了解最新的治疗方法。

2.在全国各地铺设大量移动诊断中心，配备现代化设备和发电机，为偏远角落的人们提供服务。

National Security

国土安全

1.Modernising our defence forces.

2.Indigenization of defence production.

3.Strengthening and skilling internal security systems against various forms of terrorism.

4.Preparing India to be cyber secure.

1.实现国防部队现代化。

2.实现国防生产国产化。

3.加强国内安全系统、具备应对各种形式恐怖主义的技能。