如果印度终止中印贸易，会对中国和印度的经济造成什么影响

If India stops trading with China, how will it effect the Chinese and Indian economies?

如果印度终止中印贸易，会对中国和印度的经济造成什么影响？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Varun Pratap Singh

If India stops/reduces import from China then will it hurt China economy?

Everytime China does something sinister, this “boycott Chinese goods" campaign starts. People must understand that Chinese goods are not merely Chinese cheap mobile phones or some lame electronics.

Check out your home, office college for any type of electronic and electrical goods. Note down how many of them are MADE IN CHINA. From where do people think that most of our laptops, pc (lenovo, Dell, hp,Mac any brand), mobiles (Samsung, Sony, LG any other), PlayStations, iphones etc etc come from? Even mobile chargers, adapters, earphones.

Now run another search for iron, mixer grinders, nail cutters, razors, blades, knives and similar items and note down things which are MADE IN CHINA.

If you think that's all, Chinese goods have made considerable inroads into our diwali decorations, plaster of Paris idols and various other accessories which we fail to notice. In the diwali cracker segment, Chinese goods are in direct competition with made in Sivakasi crackers segment.

如果印度终止或减少从中国进口，会伤害到中国经济吗？

每次中国做什么坏事，就会引来“抵制中国货”的运动。大家得明白，中国不是只有廉价手机和垃圾电子产品的。

看看你自己家里、办公室、学校里的所有电子产品，其中有多少是中国制造？你们认为大多数的笔记本电脑、个人电脑(联想、戴尔、惠普、Mac等品牌)、手机(三星、索尼、LG等)、playstation、iphone等都是从哪里来的？更不用说移动充电器、适配器、耳机了。

现在再找找熨斗、搅拌机、指甲刀、剃须刀、刀片、刀具等东西，看看哪些是中国制造。

中国商品已经在我们的排灯节装饰品、巴黎雕像石膏和其他我们没有注意到的各种配件中都占据了相当大的份额。排灯节燃放的爆竹中，中国爆竹和西瓦卡西鞭炮激烈竞争。

This amount of Chinese influence in the Indian market is the result of years, if not decades of business. Statistically speaking, Indian trade deficit with China is around 50billion us dollars in the favour of China. That means Chinese imports in India are valued 50billion us dollars more than Indian exports to China.

Even If we consider that we successfully boycott Chinese goods, economically it will hurt India. Because it will take Indian manufacturers years to fill the supply gap. The tremendous supply -demand mismatch will continue for years, and in the meantime, all such products will see their prices skyrocket and indian public will feel the burn.

中国在印度市场的影响力是多年经营的结果。据统计，印度对中国的贸易逆差约为500亿美元。这意味着中国出口到印度的货值比印度出口到中国的货值高出500亿美元。

就算我们认为印度可以成功抵制中国货，印度经济也会因此自损八百。因为印度制造商需要数年时间才能填补供应缺口。供需的严重失衡将持续数年时间，与此同时，这些产品的价格都会大幅飙升，印度公众会感到痛苦。

We must first atleast get at par with China on the manufacturing front, if not ahead of it, before such adventurism.

“Statistics may hurt, but they don't lie”.

China is one of our top 3 trading partners alongwith USA and Saudi but From Chinese point of view, their exports to india constitute of only 2%of their total exports. So it is evident that in the scenario of a total Chinese goods blackout by india, it'll be india which will receive the backlash

在进行这种冒险行动之前，我们如果无法在制造业方面超过中国，起码也得赶上中国。

“统计数据可能会伤人，但它们绝不会说谎”。

中国、美国和沙特是我们的三大贸易伙伴，但从中国的角度来看，中国对印度的出口仅占中国总出口的2%。所以很明显，如果印度全面封锁中国商品，印度会受到极大冲击。

Jayant Roy

Lets start with how it will affect India:

Boycotting China will have a devastating effect for India, now and definitely in the future. An agrarian country that has catapulted into the ranks for a near developed country in such a short time speaks volumes for the people of that country. Take infrastructure. China is said to build small cities in 22 months and much before it is even required by the population. New empty cities stand waiting for people to move in as the development behemoth moves along. I have personally visited 2 new cities and they are beautiful. Ports are being developed at a rapid pace. Roads are incomparable and the railways are state of the art and the railway technology is not copied, it is own development. High speed trains connect most of the big cities. These technological advanced goods and services are cheap, instead of buying Japanese, western European or US, it would be preferred to buy from China.

我们先说说印度会受到什么影响吧：

不管是现在还是将来，抵制中国将对印度造成毁灭性的影响。一个农业国家，可以在这么短的时间内贴近发达国家的行列，对中国人民来说意义重大。

比如基础设施。据说中国可以在22个月内建成小型城市，远远超过了人口现时的需求。随着开发的大步推进，新的空城建成后等待民众入住。

我参观过两座新城市，非常漂亮。港口正在快速建设。道路路况达到世界一流水平，铁路十分先进，铁路技术也是中国自己原创研发的。

高铁连接了大多数大城市。这些有着先进技术的商品和服务价格低廉，与其购买日本、西欧或美国的商品，不如购买中国的商品。

If India wants to progress rapidly, then at present the only solution is to embrace the Chines manufacture and technology. India can beat the drum after we really have had some domestic technological advancement and real manufactures, wherein we capture some of the world trade.

Most of the advanced goods are produced in China under license from the rest of the world, the finish is awesome and the goods are reliable (of course, if you want really cheap products, then do not expect really good items), Lenovo and Apple do outsource from China, so do not denigrate Chinese manufacturing.

如果印度想要快速进步，那么目前唯一的解决办法就是积极拥抱中国的制造和技术。在我们真正掌握技术进步，真正拥有制造业之后，印度也可以大力宣传自己，争取国际贸易份额。

大多数高档商品都是中国在其他国家的授权下生产的，产品很可靠(当然，如果你想要真正便宜的东西，就别对质量抱太大希望)，联想和苹果都选择把生产外包给中国，所以不要诋毁中国制造业的水平。

Next is the products that China produces are innovative and labour saving and sometime cost 1/10th the original cost.

So, India can boycott Chinese goods but this will come at a great cost.

For China, India is a “another country from which some goods are imported” not a critical country and a loss of Indian market will not set back the Chinese economy.

其次，中国生产的商品是创新的，节省劳动力，有时成本只需要原始成本的十分之一。

所以，印度可以抵制中国货，但必须付出巨大的代价。

对中国来说，印度只是“一个进口商品的国家”，但远非重要国家，失去印度市场也不会拖累中国经济。

SO is there a need to compare or discuss, which country will be affected?

所以哪个国家会受到影响呢，我们还有必要比较或讨论吗？

Akshay Kr Gupta·

China's current exports are upto a tune of $2.2 tn. and the portion corresponding to India is a mere 2%. So certainly, even if people of India decide to boycott Chinese goods completely it won't affect Chinese economy much. But it will certainly affect Indian economy by the following three ways

中国目前的出口总额高达数万亿美元，印度仅占到其中的2%。所以，即便印度人彻底抵制中国货，也不会对中国经济造成什么影响。但肯定会在以下三个方面影响印度经济：

1. Difficulty of Indian producers or manufacturers to replace the cheap imports from China. Of course, Chinese goods are being used in production of other goods etc because they are dirt cheap.

1. 印度生产商或制造商难以生产出可以取代中国廉价进口商品的产品。当然，中国商品被用于生产其他商品等，因为它们非常便宜。

2. It affects the livelihood of those small businesses who sustain themselves by selling cheap Chinese products. Think about that roadside vendor who comes to the window of your car to sell small accessories, or the cracker seller who would have been surviving by selling cheap Chinese crackers.

2. 会影响那些靠销售廉价中国商品勉力维持的小企业的生计。想一想那些在你车窗外叫卖小饰品的路边小贩，想一想那些靠售卖便宜的中国爆竹为生的小贩。

3. It affects the overall business sentiment between India and China. We also want big ticket Chinese investments for infrastructure development. We must not forget that China is a richer country compared to India and India faces an infrastructure deficit of upto $1 tn. Think about how much can Chinese investors contribute to bridge this deficit.

3. 会影响印度和中国之间的整体商业氛围。我们还希望中国来印度大量投资基础设施建设呢。我们别忘了，中国比印度更富裕，印度面临着高达1万亿美元的基础设施赤字。想想吧，中国投资者能为弥补这一赤字贡献多少！

A wise decision everytime would be to engage constructively with China. It is only after becoming strong economically that we can compete effectively against China, not by boycotting Chinese crackers!

明智的决定就是要和中国进行建设性的接触。只有在经济强大起来后，我们才能真正和中国开战竞争，光靠抵制中国的爆竹是没有用的！

Rishi Parashar

What will be the effect on India, if we stop all kind of trade with China?

There is no point in doing that because by doing this

India will DIG IT’s OWN GRAVE .

China till date is India’s largest Trade Market

如果我们终止和中国的所有贸易往来，对印度会有什么影响？

这样做毫无意义，因为印度这么做就是在自掘坟墓。

迄今为止，中国是印度最大的贸易市场。

India-China Relations Political Relations

On 1 April, 1950, India became the first non-socialist bloc country to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. Prime Minister Nehru visited China in October 1954. While, the India-China border conflict in 1962 was a serious setback to ties, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s landmark visit in 1988 began a phase of improvement in bilateral relations. In 1993, the signing of an Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the India-China Border Areas during Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s visit reflected the growing stability and substance in bilateral ties.

印中政治关系

1950年4月1日，印度成为第一个与中华人民共和国建立外交关系的社会主义集团外的国家。尼赫鲁总理于1954年10月访问中国。虽然1962年的印中边界冲突令两国关系严重受挫，但印度总理拉吉夫·甘地1988年里程碑式的访问让两国关系走出阴霾。1993年拉奥总理访华期间，两国签署了《关于在印中边界实控线沿线维持和平与安宁的协议》，反映了两国关系不断增强的稳定性和重要性。

INDIA-CHINA ECONOMIC RELATIONS

India-China economic relations constitute an important element of the strategic and cooperative partnership between the two countries. Several institutional mechanisms have been established for enhancing and strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries. Besides the India-China Joint Economic Group on Economic Relations and Trade, Science and Technology (JEG) and the India-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED), a Financial Dialogue has also been taking place between the two countries since 2006.

印中经济关系

印中经济关系是两国战略合作伙伴关系的重要组成部分。两国建立了若干促进和加强经济合作的体制机制。自2006年以来，除了印中经济关系、贸易、科技联合经济小组和印中战略与经济对话，两国之间也一直在进行财政对话。

Vikas Goel

India has recently banned 50 Chinese apps and this could create a major set-back for China. But here are some reasons as to why it is very difficult for India if it stops trading with China:

印度最近禁用了50款中国应用，这可能会给中国带来沉重打击。但如果印度终止与中国的贸易，这对印度来说将会非常困难的局面，原因如下：

Smartphones are used by everyone and the share of Chinese products is a whop 72%. OnePlus, VIVO, OPPO to name a few dominate the Smartphone industry of India.

66% of India’s population uses at least one Chinese app. The dependency on Chinese app is so much that it will be difficult to live without them.

Chinese share of products in Steel is 15-20 percent.

China is a leading country for solar energy and although India is in number two, its parts come from China. Chinese share of products is 90%.

India is also dependant on China in the areas of Pharma/API.

每个印度都在使用智能手机，其中中国手机的市场份额高达72%。一加、VIVO、OPPO等公司称霸着印度的智能手机行业。

66%的印度人至少会使用一款中国应用程序。印度人对中国应用程序的依赖太大了，离了它们简直寸步难行。

中国钢铁制品的市场份额为15- 20%。

中国是太阳能行业的领先国家，虽然印度排名第二，但所有部件都来自中国。中国产品的份额达到了90%。

印度在制药/原料药领域也依赖中国。