美国能再次成为制造业大国吗，也许只是一个不切实际的梦想

Can the US become a manufacturing power again, or is that just an unrealistic dream?

美国能再次成为制造业大国吗？也许只是一个不切实际的梦想？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Fred Chuatiuco

Thanks for the request.

NO. Expect a nigthmare in the future.

The U.S. today is operating under financialized capitalism and has for decades forsaken any infrastructure program to sustain and maintain an industrial base for manufacturing.

Additionally, education has also been relegated to the states and the private sector to assume and together with diminished social and public services such as healthcare and public transportation, labor cost in the U.S. has become too expensive to be competitive with most other countries.

不能。做好准备迎接噩梦吧。

如今的美国是在金融化的资本主义框架下运作的，几十年来一直忽略基础设施建设，导致制造业的工业基础受到冲击。

此外，教育也被划归各邦政府和私营经济来运营，加上国家对医疗保健和公共交通等社会和公共服务投入的减少，美国的劳动力成本已经十分昂贵了，无力和大多数其他国家竞争。

Nothing is expected to change as U.S. expenditures are still captive to the military industrial complex and a dysfunctional political system.

For the future, U.S. investment in infrastructue is pitiful. The foundation for optimization of advanced technologies such as IoT and AI requires a national 5G communication network. Currently, the U.S. has just uder 400,000 cell sites and 150,000 towers, mostly located in most urbanized areas and none in the rural. On the other hand, China has over 2.3 million 5G base station and on track to have 3 million by the end of 2023 covering both urban and rural regions and plans are in place to construct 10,000 5G factories within the 2021–25 period.

鉴于美国的开支仍然受制于军工联合体和问题频发的政治体系，这种现状很难出现变化。

就未来而言，美国在基础设施方面的投资少得可怜。想要充分提升物联网、人工智能等先进技术，需要搭建全国性的5G通信网络。目前，美国仅有不到40万个手机基站和15万个基站塔，大部分位于都市区，农村地区一个都没有。与此同时，中国的5G基站已超过230万个，到2023年底将达到300万个，实现城乡地区全覆盖，中国还计划在2021-25年期间建设1万家5G工厂。

Ray Comeau

Thanks for request

Nostalgia is popular. It is an unrealistic expectation and certainly not a dream.

The costs to conform to US environmental regulations, plus the slow progress in getting all the government processes approved, the required supply chains, the demands on the US logistical infrastructure are some of the challenges involved. Then you have the increased energy capacity needs to power these plants. Renewable energy amounts to only 13% of current consumption in the US. Whatever method would be used to expand the needed energy capacity, adds more costs on a US power grid that is old and fragmented.

如今大家都在念旧。但这是一个不切实际的奢望，是不可能成真的梦想。

符合美国环境法规要求所需的成本，加上政府审批流程太过缓慢，供应链对美国物流设施的要求，这些都是很大的挑战。而且为了给这些工厂供电，还要提高能源生产能力。可再生能源目前仅占到美国能源消耗量的13%。无论采用何种方法来扩大能源生产能力，都需要对美国陈旧而分散的电网追加投入。

To be half way efficient in manufacturing you need to automate with robots. You set up not to hire people, you buy hundreds of robots. That drives up another increase to capital costs. Sorry but not the job boom many Americans would expect. Besides young Americans are not interested working in factories, but Latin American immigrants would.

要想提高制造业的生产效率，就要用机器人实现自动化。不用聘请员工，而是采购数百个机器人，而这又推高了资本成本。很抱歉，但这可不是多数美国人所期望的就业热潮。此外，年轻的美国人对在工厂工作不感兴趣，但拉丁美洲的移民会愿意。

The lower economies of scale the US versus Asia, result in a higher cost of goods versus other countries, which challenges the idea of US exporting those goods. The higher manufacturing costs limits consumers to high income nations, which would still be under cut, by Asian manufacturers.

Recent surveys of US consumers indicate, the Made in USA label "might" generate a 10% price premium in the US. If the price difference between imported and US made goods were only 10%, imports would never have grown to the level it is today.

美国的规模经济相对于亚洲而言较低，导致商品成本高于其他国家，这对美国的商品出口带来了挑战。较高的制造成本将消费者限制在高收入国家，但这些国家也会受到亚洲制造商的冲击。

最近对美国消费者的调查表明，“美国制造”的标签在美国可能会造成10%的价格溢价。如果进口商品和美国制造商品之间的价差只有10%，进口绝不会疯长到今天的水平。

L (Luis) Figueroa

That’s a great question and I’m a bit ambivalent about a possible answer. It will be challenging given the level of political dysfunction and polarization that exsts these days in America. Getting political agreement on any grand industrial strategy will be virtually impossible, in contrast to the grand geopolitical strategy that arose out of the ashes of WWII when the U.S. was virtually the only nation that had not suffered the horrors of WWII and in essence became the manufacturer to the world.

这是一个很好的问题，我对答案没什么把握。鉴于美国目前政治紊乱和两极分化的严重程度，这个目标很难实现。为了宏大的工业战略达成政治协议，这是几乎不可能的事。这和诞生于二战废墟的宏大地缘政治战略目标形成了鲜明的对比，当时的美国是唯一一个没有遭受过二战惨烈战火吞噬的国家，迅速崛起为全球制造商。

However, that was an accident of history and highly unlikely to be repeated. Today the world is vastly more competitive and the U.S. is falling behind in many areas of manufacturing, especially to China. However, there are still areas that it can contest such as semiconductor manufacturing. Semiconductor manufacturing, especially at the extreme end of the spectrum, is becoming more strategic for both economic supremacy and national security, and if a serious national effort gains momentum it could become a major discriminator for many newer industries in the future.

但，这是历史的偶然，无法重演。今天的世界竞争要更为激烈，美国已经在制造业的许多领域中落后了，尤其是已经落后于中国了。但美国在半导体制造等领域仍有极强的竞争力。半导体制造业，尤其是在尖端频谱方面，对经济霸权和国家安全都越来越具有战略意义。

On the other hand I’m afraid that too much current effort is being placed in the United States on being a manufacturer for green energy related products, where China has a dominant and increasing lead. This effort is taking away resources from the more critical area related to semiconductor manufacturing. In addition the U.S. should continue leveraging its ability to produce petroleum products at low cost and continue to produce internal combustion engine products for longer time periods than green energy proponents would desire, perhaps by teaming more effectively with European and Japanese manufacturers.

另一方面，我担心美国为了成长为绿色能源相关产品的制造商投入了太多的努力，而中国已经在这个领域占据了主导地位，而且越来越领先。美国在绿色能源领域的努力分走了半导体制造的资源。此外，美国应该继续充分利用低成本生产石油产品的能力，继续生产内燃机产品，而不是绿色能源支持者所希望的那样，通过与欧洲和日本制造商更有效地合作来实现。

The other major manufacturing sector where the U.S. is loosing its lead is the aerospace and defense sector and its ability to rapidly develop and manufacture products. This sector is critical to national security and in maintaining the country’s transportation infrastructure, which is critical to economic growth. At some point the government may need to make some tough decisions, including consolidation or nationalization, along with major strategic investments to strengthen its competitiveness.

It’s not clear to me how the evolution of what appears to be a new American industrial policy will evolve and whether it will even be successful, given the highly uncertain and politically fragmented times.

美国在航空航天和国防等主要制造领域也正逐步失去领先地位，快速开发和制造产品的能力逐步走弱。这个领域对维护国家安全和国家交通基础设施至关重要，而交通基础设施又对经济增长至关重要。未来，美国政府可能需要做出一些艰难的决定，包括整合或国有化以及重大战略投资才能增强自己的竞争力。

鉴于高度不确定性和政治分裂的局面，我不清楚美国新产业政策将如何演变，也不清楚能否成功。

Daniel Jacobson

Yes. It isn’t unrealistic. After the Second World War the United States had a time of glory days. Then, by the time I was born twenty some years later it had been squandered. It is still being squandered. People like to blame. I get it.

I remember as a child we had a big console television. the television repairman would be in often to fix the thing. My dad got tired of the expensive unreliable television so he bought a plain kind of ugly Japanese television. That was about 50 years ago. As far as I know, it still works.

是的。这不是没有可能。第二次世界大战后，美国就经历过一段光辉岁月。但20多年后我出生的时候，美国已经开始错失良机了。至今依然如此。人们喜欢责备别人。

我记得小时候家里有一台很大的电视。电视修理工经常得修理这台东西。我爸爸受够了华而不实的垃圾电视，所以他买了一台普普通通、其貌不扬的日本电视。那是大约50年前的事了。据我所知，这台电视现在还能正常使用呢。

My dad was a union guy, and he would only buy American cars. Then there was an embargo in 73 and everyone was screwed. Except for those that had the fuel efficient small cars from Japan or Germany. (Anyone remember playing “slug bug?”). So, when the US car manufacturers started offering K cars my dad bought one. A Ford Fairmont wagon. We had it a few days and we took the family trip to the grandparents for Christmas. It stopped on the freeway an hour into the trip. My dad walked to find a phone for a tow. The rest of us stayed in the car. During a blizzard. The next car my dad bought was a Honda.

American manufacturing was killed by Americans. But the question should be asked, which Americans? I already know, you decide for yourself. When we can agree where the problem lies, we can make efforts to fix it.

我爸爸很爱国，他说他只会买美国车。1973年发生禁运，所有人都遭殃了。除了那些拥有日本或德国产的节油小型汽车的人。(有人记得玩过“鼻涕虫”游戏吗?)所以，当美国汽车制造商开始供应K型汽车时，我爸爸也买了一辆。那是一辆福特费尔蒙特轿车。我们开着这辆车，载着全家人去爷爷奶奶家过圣诞节。一小时后它在高速公路上抛锚了。我爸爸只能步行去找电话喊人拖车。我们在暴风雪中只能都待在车里。我爸爸后来买了第二辆车，是一辆本田。

美国制造业是被美国人自己摧毁的。但问题应该这么问，是被哪些美国人摧毁的？我是知道的，你自己也想想。当我们能对问题的症结达成一致看法时，我们就能努力解决问题。

Vasily Smith

Will manufacturing come back to America 100%?

I just want to add my two cents to everyone great answers.

IMHO. I’m clearly not an expert.

There is already in the world pretty successful model of first world country that doing well with manufacturing. I’m talking about Germany. They have a lot of good ideas that we should at least consider. Like apprenticeship. Etc. I am not saying everything could be copied. But still.

制造业能100%重回美国吗？

我想在大家精彩回答的基础上补充两点意见。

恕我直言，我并非专家。

第一世界国家在制造业方面取得良好成就，已经创立了相当成功的模式。我所指的就是德国。他们有很多很好的想法，我们可以借鉴一下。但我并不是说我们要照搬一切。

Another point is that we live in the world where a lot of customers want instant gratification and products to be customized to their taste. And they are willing to pay premium for it. Both of this factors could be very beneficial for local manufacturing. Especially with advances in tools like 3D printing..

Customers with money don't want to wait for stuff to be made and delivered from China.

Especially environmentally conscious customer that knows how much impact all these deliveries have.

I don't think it is so bad after all..

另一点在于，在我们生活的世界里，很多顾客都喜欢即时满足和个性化定制。他们也愿意为此支付更高的价格。这两个因素都可能对当地制造业非常有利，尤其是3D打印机等工具不断改进…

有钱的客户不愿意花时间等候商品从中国生产完再运送到自己手上。

尤其是有环保意识的顾客，他们知道商品运输会给环境带来多大的影响。

我认为事情也没有想象中那么糟。

John Wong

The US’s problem is its labour unions making its labour costs too high so that it become uncompetitive. Aside from that US workers are not competitive.

So, why should companies invest in domestic manufacturing instead of importing?

The current measures the US government is doing is subsidization and using tariffs as well as bullying companies like TSMC, Samsung etc. All these are anti free trade.

美国的问题在于各行各业的工会抬高了劳动力成本，从而失去了竞争力。除此之外，美国工人自身也缺乏竞争力。

所以，美国企业为什么不直接进口，而要投资国内制造业呢？

美国政府目前采取的措施是发放补贴、滥用关税工具，同时欺压台积电、三星等公司。这些行为都是反自由贸易的。

So, the question is “Can the packet of measure make the US a manufacturing power?”

Certain industries like the military industry can pay well and have all its productions in the US and the customers can pay the high costs, the US government can force that happen but it can’t politically because the industry has high influence. However, that would only make US industries strong in certain areas.

所以，问题应该这么问：“一揽子措施能帮助美国成为制造业大国吗？”

某些行业，如军事行业付得起高工资，所有产品都可以实现国产，客户也付得起高成本，美国政府也有能力强制这类产品的国产化，但在政治上这是不可行的，因为该行业具有很高的影响力。不过这只能让美国制造业在某些领域做强做大。