印度本世纪内能赶超中国吗

Can India catch up with China in this century?

印度本世纪内能赶超中国吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

SATZ

Do you think India will ever be able to move ahead of China?

Why India want to move ahead China. China is not a threat to India. India Should Cooperate with China to achieve it's target. Some disputes may be there but China is india's good training partner.

你认为印度有能力超越中国吗？

为什么印度要超越中国呢。中国对印度又不是威胁。印度应该和中国合作，实现自己的发展目标。两国可能存在一些争议，但中国是印度很好的训练伙伴。

India has to solve it's border disputes with China in a peaceful way.

India and China are friends in SCO, RCEP,WTO, climate Change matters so both countries try to counter Western dominate.

India should make trust among his neighbours. India's aim is not to counter china it's wants to balance only. India wants to be a super country means india need the support of world powers.

Don't see China as a threat instead making as a partner.

印度必须以和平方式解决与中国的边界争端。

印度和中国在上合组织、区域全面经济伙伴关系、世界贸易组织、气候变化等问题上都是朋友，所以两国都希望对抗西方的霸主地位。

印度应该和邻国培养信任。印度的目标不是对抗中国，印度只想保持平衡。印度想成为超级大国意味着需要世界大国的支持。

不要把中国视为威胁，要把中国当做合作伙伴。

Nithin Rao

India is never catching up with China. There will never be a shortage of Indian supremacists claiming the opposite, the magnitude of ignorance couldn’t be worse.

China’s yearly exports are equivalent to that of India’s entire GDP.

印度永远赶不上中国。很多印度至上主义者只会叫嚷着中国不如印度，实在是太无知了。

中国每年的出口额就相当于印度全年的GDP了。

It’s demeaning to compare a regressive, third world country that has poor infrastructure, high levels of unemployment, a third of its population living in abject poverty and single digit growth levels throughout its history with China, a magnanimous, modernized country led by visionaries that has outpaced the growth of any major economy in modern history.

China is realist, India is delusional. India never does anything extraordinary but talks a lot.

一个第三世界国家，基础设施落后破败，失业率居高不下，三分之一的人口生活在赤贫中，历史上经济增长率也只有个位数而已，反观中国，中国是一个坦荡大气的现代化国家，领导人颇有远见，经济增长速度超过了现代历史上所有重要经济体。

中国是现实主义者，而印度是妄想狂。印度从来没有做出过什么特别的事情，整天只会夸夸其谈。

Let’s keep the macroeconomic factors aside, the GDP equation is simple math.

让我们把宏观经济因素放在一边，GDP的计算其实并不复杂。

This is why growth rates are meaningless unless you look at the base GDP numbers of a country. India cannot catch up as long as that gap remains, and it’s only widening with time.

China has consistently maintained double digit GDP growth for decades after it liberalized. India on the other hand struggles to maintain a single digit positive growth. Even if China suddenly stop growing, it will take India 15 years at a average growth rate of 12% to surpass China.

这就是为什么单看增长率毫无意义，你要看一个国家的GDP基础。只要差距仍然存在，印度就无法赶超，而且这种差距只会随着时间的推移而不断扩大。

改革开放几十年来，中国一直保持着两位数的GDP增长。而印度勉力维持个位数的正增长。就算中国突然停止增长的脚步，印度想超过中国也还需要以平均12%的增长率保持15年的时间。

Exports - China won the trade war and has now surpassed the US to become the largest exporter in the world. It manufactures high end electronics, telecom equipment and high-tech goods. India is losing out the exports market to the likes of Bangladesh and Vietnam - which already exports more than India.

Industrialization - The scale of industrialization in China is unimaginable. China produces more steel and cement than the next 5 countries combined. You can imagine the level of infrastructure development there. India is at the third place with much lower production even though it has the same number of people with the same demand for infrastructure.

出口—中国赢得了贸易战，现在已经超过美国成为世界上最大的出口国。中国能够生产高端电子产品、电信设备和高科技产品。而印度正把出口市场拱手让给孟加拉国和越南等国——这些国家的出口已经超过印度。

工业化—中国工业化的规模令人咂舌。中国的钢铁和水泥产量比后面五个国家的总和还多。可以想象中国的基础设施发展水平有多高了。印度排在第三位，产量比中国低得多，但两国人口数量相同，对基础设施的需求也相同。

China’s military prowess is already the second best after the US, comparisons with India would be embarrassing.

Investment in research - China has heavily invested in research for modernizing its economy. It’s leading the world in both telecommunication and AI. The race for AI supremacy will be between the United States and China, India is nowhere close.

China spends much more on research than India, today it’s as good as some Western countries when it comes to science. In India, religion and cultural debauchery supersedes science and research.

中国的军事实力已经是仅次于美国的全球第二强，印度相形之下令人尴尬。

研究投资—中国在经济现代化的研究上投入了大量资金。中国在电信和人工智能领域都处于世界领先地位。人工智能霸权的争夺将在美国和中国之间展开，印度差得太远了。

中国在科研上的投入比印度多得多，如今在科学方面完全不输西方国家。但印度用宗教和文化取代了科学和研究。

Infrastructure - The US has the world’s largest flight coverage with excellent connectivity throughout the country. China has the world’s most expansive high speed rail network, it’s rapidly catching up with the US in air traffic. India has neither, it has the worst infrastructure of all major economies.

Small towns having less than 25,000 inhabitants in the US are served by major regional airports, India on the other hand does not even have adequate airports for its metropolitan cities.

基础设施—美国拥有世界上最大的航班覆盖范围，国内有着良好的交通便利性。中国拥有世界上最大的高铁网络，在空中交通方面也正迅速追赶美国。印度一样都没有，印度的基础设施是所有主要经济体中最差劲的。

在美国，人口不足2.5万的小城镇都有地区性机场，但印度各大城市都不一定拥有机场。

In China, you can cover a distance of 1500km from Beiing to Shanghai in less than 6 hours on their HSR, Mumbai-Delhi has no such connectivity which is quite shameful.

Telecommunication - China and the West has 5G coverage by now, India’s network seems to be nowhere around. The next race for telecom supremacy is between China and the US. India is far behind.

Core technologies - China has figured out aircraft engine manufacturing, it has a robust in-house defence manufacturers that build cutting-edge fighter jets, frigates and aircraft carriers.

在中国，你可以用不到6小时的时间从北京移动到上海，行程1500公里，但印度的孟买到德里没有这种高速交通工具，可耻啊。

电信—截止目前，中国和西方都实现了5G覆盖，但印度的网络落后太多了。下一场电信霸权的争夺将在中国和美国之间展开。印度远远落后。

核心技术—中国已经掌握了飞机发动机制造技术，拥有强大的国防军备制造商，可以制造出尖端战斗机、护卫舰和航空母舰。

India is more than 10–15 years behind China, US here. COMAC is moving ahead to challenge the Airbus-Boeing duopoly, not an Indian company.

FDI/Green energy - China remains the seconds largest beneficiary of foreign investments. India doesn’t make it to the top 5. There’s a reason why Tesla chose China over India for its overseas debut, a few years back. Beiing focused on an expansive electric grid that covers the entire country. They also had proper infrastructure to create charging stations throughout their cities.

印度在这方面落后中国和美国10-15年以上。中国商飞正努力突破空客和波音的双头垄断，印度公司完全不见踪影。

外国直接投资/绿色能源—中国现在是第二大外国投资受益国。印度都没能进入前五名。几年前，特斯拉在海外首次亮相时选择了中国而非印度，这是有原因的。中国很重视建设覆盖全国的庞大电网，他们还拥有充分的基础设施，可以在城市范围内建立充电站。

Indian cities are overcrowded with barely any space for that. It is unable to fulfill any of its electricity demand, China on the other hand has a production surplus. Power outages are still the norm in most of India including its metropolises, a stable electric grid is a distant dream.

Disaster management - The way these countries handled their pandemic response is a very good indicator of their capabilities. China with almost the same population not only prevented its healthcare systems from a total breakdown, they managed to effectively trace and contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

印度城市过于拥挤，几乎没有空间可以容纳这些东西。印度满足不了任何电力需求，而中国却面临生产过剩的问题。在印度大部分地区，包括大城市，停电仍是常态，稳定的电网还只是一个遥远的梦想。

灾害管理—各国应对疫情的方式很好地反映了各自的实力。和印度人口几乎相同的中国不仅避免了医疗体系的全面崩溃，而且有效地追踪和遏制了新冠病毒的传播。

India is the complete opposite with its mismanagement, complacency and abdication of responsibility has failed to protect its own citizens. Population size is not an excuse here. This is a country that talks about competing with China, but its clear from their current situation that they cannot.

Progression - China has always been progressive. It outlawed the regressive practice of arranged marriages in the 1950s. India actively encourages them. Most Chinese are atheists but in India loyalty to religion supersedes everything else. A country can only progress rapidly if its broader society allows it. Such changes never have and never will happen in India which is full of hyper-nationalists who start whining about culture and religion. Politicians use this vulnerability to cater to their vote banks using populist, religious rhetoric to retain power while ignoring any urgent development.

印度则完全相反，政府管理不善、盲目自满、推卸责任，未能保护自己的公民。人口规模大也不能作为借口。印度一心想和中国竞争，但从目前的情况来看，他们显然做不到。

进步—中国一直在进步。中国在20世纪50年代就取缔了包办婚姻这种落后的做法。印度积极鼓励他们。大多数中国人是无神论者，但在印度，人们对宗教的忠诚高于一切。一个国家只有在得到社会广泛支持的情况下才能迅速发展。但在印度，这种变化从来没有发生过，也永远不可能发生，因为印度充满了超级民族主义者，他们对文化和宗教开始不满。政客们则利用这一点来迎合选民，用民粹主义和宗教言论来争取权利，将紧迫的发展需要置于一边。

China is now on its way to be a strong contender to the US. It is the only country that the West and the world see as a potential superpower along with the United States. Beiing is moving rapidly to surpass Washington in key areas, India is not even halfway close to China, everybody knows that except India.

中国正在成为美国的有力竞争者。它是唯一一个被西方和世界视为与美国并列的潜在超级大国的国家。中国正在关键领域迅速超越美国，印度甚至还没有接近中国一半，除了印度，每个人都知道这一点。

Random Quorer

I doubt that. Yes, India does have the second biggest population(maybe the biggest in next few years). But that is not enough. Indian population has been the second largest for decades. But why China achieve the economic boom instead of India?

Yes, India’s economic increase is fast in these two years. But when you look at the sheer volume，India’s economic growth is still smaller than China.

我对此表示怀疑。是的，印度确实拥有世界第二大人口(也许在未来几年就能升至人口第一大国)。但这远远不够。几十年来，印度人口一直是世界第二。为什么中国成功实现了经济繁荣，印度没有？

是的，这两年印度的经济增长很快。但从绝对数量上看，印度的经济增长仍低于中国。

There are many prerequisite for China’s economy boom other than population. First, large well-educated population provides cheap labor, not just population. The number of engineering student that graduate from Chinese university is much larger than India. In fact, China can not only provide low-end labor, but also provide cheaper high level labor. Second, a strong government to achieve it’s goals. During Mao’s time, China was extremely poor. But the China still spend large amount of resources on education, which is significant for the economic growth in Deng’ s age.

除了人口，中国经济的繁荣还有很多先决条件。首先，大量受过良好教育的人口提供了廉价劳动力。中国大学毕业的工科学生数量比印度多得多。事实上，中国不仅可以提供低端劳动力，还可以提供性价比高的高端劳动力。第二，中国拥有强大的政府来实现自己的目标。中国曾经也非常贫困，但中国依然为教育投入大量资源，这对经济增长具有十分重要的意义。

Ram Mysore Hatti

Not possible in the next 50–75 years and beyond. The reason being:

Poor leadership, lack of vision & enthusiasm & desire to excel.

It is a cultural aspect. Satisfied with the way they are & what they have.

Dysfunctional or poorly functional de ocracy.

Corruption, very dominant. Cant change the society in 50–70 years.

在未来50-75年甚至更久一点，都是不可能的。原因如下：

印度的领导能力差，缺乏远见、热情和追求卓越的意愿。

印度的文化方面的问题。印度人对自己的现状和所拥有的一切感到满意。

印度的皿煮制度出现问题，或者表现不佳。

印度的腐败盛行。无法在50-70年内彻底改变社会。

NiceU

Depending on the industry.

When people talk about GDP growth, they hardly talk about industry.

Only by mastering the most advanced industries, one can maintain economic growth. Things like auto-drive, bio-tech, AI, 5G, will become the base of gdp growth.

If India want to catch up with China, think about what tech it can dominate.

这取决于制造业。

当人们谈论GDP增长时，总是对制造业避而不谈。

只有掌握最先进的产业，才能保持经济增长。自动驾驶、生物技术、人工智能、5G等将成为GDP增长的基础。

如果印度想赶上中国，必须想想印度在哪些技术领域可以称霸。