Is India in 2023 the same as China was in 2007?

2023年的印度等同于2007年的中国吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Shravan Rangarajan

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Is it safe to say that China is at least 30 years ahead of India?

Very safe! In fact, you can increase that number to 40 or 50 and it will still be true.

I lived in a Chinese village with a Chinese family for one month as part of a homestay program. I started my journey from Shanghai airport, and the entire stretch of road leading to the village was smooth, with no potholes, no litter, and not once did I see anyone driving their vehicle on the wrong side of the road, or see stray dogs and cattle hold up vehicles.

中国至少领先印度30年，可以这么说吗？

这个说法完全没问题，事实上，就算把这个数字增加到40年或50年也无妨。

我参加了寄宿家庭项目，在乡下和一个中国家庭同住了一个月。我从上海机场出发，通往村子的整段路都很平坦，没有坑洼，没有垃圾，没有看到有人开车逆行，也没有看到流浪狗和牛挡住车辆。

Every house in the village had an attached toilet, 24x7 electricity, and the houses all had modern appliances like washing machine, refrigerator, TV, Wi-Fi etc. And I had visited quite a few houses.

Every classroom in the village primary school had a TV which the teachers used to teach their students. The secondary school had Wi-Fi.

村里的每户人家都有厕所，24小时供电，所有房子都有现代化电器，比如洗衣机、冰箱、电视、Wi-Fi等。我走访了不少人家。

村里小学的每个教室里都有一台电视，老师们用它来教学。中学里还有Wi-Fi。

All the villagers wore helmets while riding their electric scooters. Every single one of them could read and write Mandarin, and none of them littered or spat or peed in the open.

The women all wore jeans, dresses, skirts etc. and no one judged them and shamed them for “a the west”.

It was completely safe to wander around the village after dark. No one got harassed for their gender, nationality etc. None of the female participants in the homestay program ever mentioned that they felt uncomfortable, or were stared at by men for wearing shorts. None of us faced any racist taunts.

所有村民骑电动车时都戴着头盔。人人都能读会写，也没有人随地乱扔垃圾、随地吐痰或随地大小便。

女人们穿着牛仔裤、连衣裙、短裙等等，没有人说三道四，也没有人因为她们穿着“西式服饰”而羞辱她们。

天黑后在村子里闲逛也是完全安全的。没有人因为性别、国籍等而受到骚扰。参加寄宿家庭项目的女性中，没有一个人提到过她们觉得不自在，或者因为穿了短裤而被男人盯着看。我们都没有遭遇过任何种族主义的嘲讽。

I’m not saying that China has no problems, but this Chinese village had better services than most Indian cities (we can still only dream of uninterrupted power supply, or 24x7 water, or pothole-free roads).

I cannot say with authority that all villages in China are like this, but I would wager that many of them are.

我不是说中国就完全没有问题，但这个中国村庄就已经比大多数印度城市都要好了(24小时不间断的电力供应，或24小时供水，或无坑洼的道路对印度人而言仍是一种奢望)。

我不敢说中国所有的村庄都是如此，但我敢打赌，大多数都差不多。

Vikram Yashashvi

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How many years is China ahead of India?

China opened up in 1971. India opened up its economy in 1991.

So China has a head start of 2 decades over India.

However in developmental terms this is not true as China should be at least 3 decades ahead of us, this is because China’s political structure is quicker in decision making and implementation, whereas Indian parliamentary de ocracy is consensual in nature and consensus takes a lot of time to arrive.

Given the two different political systems here, the gap between India and China will stay for half a century more for sure.

中国领先印度多少年？

中国于1971年对外开放，印度在1991年开放了经济。

所以中国至少比印度领先20年。

但从发展的角度来看，这么说并不准确，因为中国应该领先我们至少30年。原因在于中国的制度，使得政府在决策和实施方面更高效，而印度的议会本质上追求共识，而达成共识需要耗费很长时间。

因为这两种不同的制度，印度和中国之间的差距肯定还会持续半个世纪。

Subodh Mathur

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Could India catch the present day development of China even in 2025?

I am so glad that you asked this question. Too many people are focused on Pakistan, when the real issue is China. My motto for young(er) people is:

Wake up. Wake up. Wake up. China, not Pakistan. China, not Pakistan. China, not Pakistan.

But, sorry. No. 2025 is too soon. Unless there is a social implosion in China, and it begins to fall apart. Unlikely.

2025年，印度能赶上中国现在的发展水平吗?

我很高兴你提出了这个问题。太多的人关注巴基斯坦了，但真正的问题在中国。我有句箴言想送给年轻人：

醒醒吧......醒醒吧......醒醒吧......看看中国，别盯着巴基斯坦。看看中国，别盯着巴基斯坦。看看中国，别盯着巴基斯坦。

不过很抱歉，2025年还是太仓促了。除非他们发生内乱，四分五裂。否则这是不太可能的。

Realistically, India needs 10% real (In every sense) GDP growth for years to come. Then, India could come close to China by 2040, and equal by 2050. For young people, that’s within their life times.

And, this will require a focus on economic growth.

现实地说，印度在未来几年需要实现10%的实际GDP增长。到2040年，印度才可能会接近中国，到2050年才可能追平中国。对年轻人来说，这可是他们一生的时间。

想要实现这个目标，需要把重点放在经济增长上。

Rajesh Tiwary

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Is it true that India can never beat China in terms of economy?

Let's first talk about Japan.

印度在经济上永远无法超越中国，是真的吗？

我们可以先从日本谈起。

It's 1980s and Japan is growing like a mad boy. At 10–15% per annum. Japan is leading manufacturer of cars , electronics, machine hardwares and many other stuff.

One of the highest per capita GDP and income. Overqualified, highly skilled people everywhere you go. You got to be a millionaire to buy an okayish flat in Tokyo. Money is literally flowing in the streets(Okay I made this one up…)

20世纪80年代日本的发展势头非常迅猛，每年增长10-15%。日本是汽车、电子产品、机械硬件和其他众多产品的领先制造国。

日本成了人均GDP和人均收入最高的国家之一。你所到之处，看到的都是资历过高、技术高超的人。你得成为百万富翁才能在东京买到一套不错的公寓。路上到处都是钱流(哈，这是我自己编的…)

$ 4.9 trillion economy which was only behind of USA’s $7 trillion economy. Almost every “Expert” predicted that Japan will overtake USA’s economy by 2010 or so…

But we all know that never really happened. So what went wrong?

As it turned out, almost Everything….. The young Japanese people preferred staying single than marrying and having children.

日本当时4.9万亿美元的经济规模仅次于美国的7万亿美元。几乎每个“专家”都预测日本经济将在2010年左右超过美国。

但我们都知道这个预测没能实现。那么问题出在哪里？

最后事实证明，日本几乎方方面面都出现了问题.....比起结婚生子，日本年轻人更喜欢单身。

About 30% Japanese people never marry. So the population started aging rapidly. The population even started declining. The problem with this is, in order to have a flourishing economy you need constant supply of young, innovative work force. And Japan ran out of just that..

So in 1990s, Japan entered a phase of GREAT STAGNATION. That means it showed almost zero growth in last 3 decades!. It's economy is still $4.9 trillion.

大约30%的日本人一辈子都不结婚。所以日本人口开始迅速老龄化，人口规模开始下降。但为了维持繁荣的经济，需要有源源不断的年轻、创新的劳动力。而日本已经没有这个条件了。

因此从20世纪90年代开始，日本进入了停滞阶段。这意味着在过去30年里，日本几乎没有增长！经济规模依然是4.9万亿美元。

China which had 50 times smaller economy than Japan back in 1980s, ironically has 3 times larger economy compared to Japan today. All that in 4 decades.

The whole point is, as of now, China is indeed doing great in terms of economy as compared to India...

在20世纪80年代，日本的经济规模是中国的50倍，具有讽刺意味的是，今天中国的经济规模已经比日本多3倍了。如此巨变就发生在这40年内。

到目前为止，与印度相比，中国在经济方面的表现确实十分出色…

China has foreign reserves of 5 times as India.

China has great infrastructure and it has literally become powerhouse of manufacturing and exports.

It's way above India in anything related economy as of now.

中国的外汇储备是印度的5倍。

中国拥有强大的基础设施，已经成为制造业和出口大国。

到目前为止，在所有经济领域，中国都远超印度。

But the question is for how long?

With controversial one child policy, even China’s population is aging rapidly, talent pool is shrinking too, so what happened to Japan might very well happen to China.

但问题是，中国能持续高速发展多长时间呢？

备受争议的独生子女政策使得中国的人口也在迅速老龄化，人才资源不断萎缩，所以中国可能也会重蹈日本的覆辙。

Another thing is, much of China’s progress is based upon it's policy of disrespecting Intellectual property rights and avoiding free trade and thereby curtailing competition. Most of countries including USA have sensed that and as a result now they are demanding China to shed off its trade protectionism.

还有一点，中国的进步在很大程度上是建立在损害知识产权和自由贸易，从而减少竞争的政策基础上的。包括美国在内的大多数国家都意识到了这一点，因此他们现在开始要求中国放弃贸易保护政策。

I laugh gleefully when my fellow Indians say “India can never beat China even in dreams”. Economics is a Bitch…there was a time when Venezuela was developed and Norway was poor country, at world stage it doesn't take a lot of time to go from rag to riches and other way around.

At present India’s potential growth is hugely suppressed by corruption, excessive government control, socialist leaning policies, hostile neighbours and awful education system.. But things are changing rapidly.

当我的印度同胞说“印度即使做梦也拼不过中国”时，我笑了。曾几何时，委内瑞拉十分发达，而挪威还是个一穷二白的国家，在世界舞台上，从穷变富并不需要等候太长时间。

目前，印度的潜在增长被腐败、过度的政府控制、社 会主义倾向的政策、敌对的邻国和糟糕的教育体系严重压制了。但这种情况正在迅速变化。

It's not impossible that India becomes 3rd or 2nd largest economy in the world in the next two decades.

Only time will tell whether India leaves China behind or not, Only thing that I can say that it's not impossible.

未来20年，印度完全有可能成为世界第三或第二大经济体。

只有时间才能证明印度会不会把中国甩在身后。我唯一能说的就是：一切皆有可能。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

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When will India have the same GDP?

It's plain maths

GDP1 * (1+ Growth1)^n = GDP2 * (1 + Growth2) ^ n

什么时候印度的GDP能赶上中国？

这是非常简单的数学计算。

GDP1 * (1+ Growth1)^n = GDP2 * (1+ Growth2) ^n

India vs China

3.47 * (1.0675)^n = 19* (1.05)^n

(1.0675/1.05)^n = (19/3.47) = 5.47

(1.0167)^n = 5.47

n = 102.50 Years

At current estimated growth rates India will overtake China by 2125 AD

印度vs中国

3.47 * (1.0675)^n = 19* (1.05)^n

(1.0675/1.05)^n = (19/3.47) = 5.47

(1.0167)^n = 5.47

n = 102.50年

按照目前的增长率，印度将在2125年超过中国

If China grows at 4% and India at 8.5%

GDP1 * (1+ Growth1)^n = GDP2 * (1+ Growth2) ^n

Then

(1.085/1.04)^n = 5.47

n = 41 Years

Thus if India grows at 8.5% a year and China grows at 4% a year then India can overtake China by 2064 AD

如果中国的增长率为4%，印度的增长率为8.5%

那么

(1.085/1.04)^n = 5.47

n = 41年

因此，如果印度以每年8.5%的速度增长，中国以每年4%的速度增长，那么印度可以在公元2064年超过中国

Realistically assume the worst case that India grows twice as fast as China over the next 50 years

China will grow at minimum 2.75% in the next 50 years and India at 5.50% and I am being SUPER OPTIMISTIC here

Thus

China will finish at 19* (1.0275)^50 = $ 74 Trillion

India will finish at 3.47 * (1.055)^50 = $50.46 Trillion

So even by 2073 AD , India will still be only 2/3 of China in GDP

At this growth it would take 63.5 years for India to reach China's GDP

That is 2087 AD

假设印度在未来50年的增长速度是中国的两倍

未来50年，中国经济增长率至少为2.75%，印度为5.50%，对此我非常乐观

那么

中国：19*(1.0275)^50 = 74万亿美元

印度：3.47 *(1.055)^50 = 50.46万亿美元

所以即使到2073年，印度的GDP也只有中国的2/3

如果继续按照这个速度增长，印度需要63.5年才能追上中国的GDP

那就是2087年的事了

India reaching China's GDP is between 2087–2125

Most people on Quora will not be alive to celebrate the achievement when it happens

印度GDP追上中国的时间在2087-2125年之间

Quora上的大多数用户在有生之年都不可能有机会共襄盛举了。