印网民：如果印度攻击中国，对中国经济会造成什么影响

If India attacked China, what would be the impact on the Chinese economy?

如果印度攻击中国，对中国经济会有什么影响?

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Anonymous

If we consider nuclear war, it may be catastrophe, and it would be much more catastrophe to India. Because India needs advanced missiles to deliver nuclear war head to Chinese heart land. China only needs much cheaper short range missile to deliver nuclear warhead to New Delhi.

If we do not consider nuclear war, Beiing is like 5000 km away from the India-China border, however New Delhi is only 500 km away. Chinese can afford to lose many campaigns before Chinese economy gets seriously impacted. Indian cannot afford to lose any campaign. One defeat at border, next campaign would be the last to defend their capital.

如果爆发的是核战争，可能会是一场灾难，对印度来说则更是大灾难。因为印度需要用先进的导弹才能把核弹头发射到中国的心脏地带。但中国只需要成本较低的短程导弹就能把核弹头发射到新德里。

如果爆发的不是核战争，北京距离中印边境大约5000公里，但新德里距离中印边境只有500公里。在中国经济受到严重影响之前，中国人可以输得起多场战役，但印度人一场也输不起。一旦印度在边境战败，下一场战役就是他们保卫首都的最后一战了。

Joey Meng

Very little

It would be very foolish if India attacked China, the Himalayan mountains are practically impossible to cross by trained mountaineers, what makes you think that a conventional army can cross.

Plus the area that the Indian army would be attacking would be sparsely populated.

不会有什么影响。

如果印度攻打中国，那只会是非常愚蠢的行为，训练有素的登山者也几乎无法跨越喜马拉雅山脉，你凭什么认为一支常规军队可以呢。

此外，印度军队要进攻的地区人口十分稀少。

The Chinese would just maintain a defensive posture, and the casualties will probably be limited to less than 1000 before what ever idiot who decided to launch the war gets kicked out of power.

The economy won’t suffer since China’s economy is located in the east, quite far away from Tib and there isn’t really any big trade between India and China that would cause the Chinese economy to lose out on anything.

中国人只会保持防御，在印度人民将发动战争的政客赶下台之前，中国的伤亡人数可能会限制在1000人以下。

中国经济更不会因此受到影响，因为中国经济重心位于东部地区，距离西藏地区十分遥远，印度和中国之间贸易规模不大，不会损伤中国经济一分一毫。

Conclusion:

Very little will happen

Let’s hope a dumb war like this never happens.

结论：

对中国的影响微乎其微

我希望这种蠢不可及的战争永远不会发生。

Sam Lu

Not much really, considering their glorious history, the battle will be finished before made it to the news. But taking in hundreds of thousands of Indian captives can be very costly, so there will be some negative impact on Chinese economy, but not for long since we will ship them back once India surrendered.

真的不会有什么影响，中国拥有辉煌的历史，这场战斗可能在新闻登报之前就偃旗息鼓了。但是收编成千上万的印度俘虏，代价是非常昂贵的，所以在这一点上可能会对中国经济产生一些负面影响，但不会持久，只要印度投降，我们就会把印度俘虏运回印度。

William Edward Joseph Leow

Considering the efficiency of the Indian army, I would say there's going to be little to no impact

India has attacked China in the past, the results didn't go well for India

考虑到印度军队的作战能力，我想说应该不会有任何影响

印度过去也攻打过中国，但结果并不好看。

Jesuan Wu

Little, because China has a vast geographic advantage in Tib.

Let’s face it, unless Indian Navy becomes world’s top dog, any major Indian attack will only happen in the Himalayas. Sadly Tib is the most backward and sparcely populated region of China, so whatever India does there, it will have hardly any effect nationwide in China, unless Indian military beats China all the way across some of the most difficult terrains on this planet that’s about half the size of India, and arrive at the provincial borders with Sichuan.

影响很小，因为中国在xz地区拥有巨大的地理优势。

让我们面对现实吧，除非印度海军有朝一日成为世界霸主，否则印度的大型进攻都只会集中在喜马拉雅山地区。但很可悲的是，西藏是中国最为落后、人口最为稀少的地区，所以无论印度在该地区做什么，都不会对中国全境产生任何影响，除非印度军队击败中国，攻占面积大约有印度的一半大的、地球上最困难的一些地形地貌，一路打到四川地界。

But as Indians have found out the hard way in the border war of 1962, you can attack China and win 100 battles, but as soon as the Chinese gain the upper hand once, then it’s basically all over and we’d be looking at the prospect of PLA forces steam rolling down the mountains and have the Indian heart land at gunpoint.

但正如印度人在1962年的边境战争中艰难发现的结论，你可以攻打中国并赢得100场战斗，但只要中国占据上风，一切就基本结束了，我们会目睹中国军队从山上神兵天降般将印度的心脏地带置于中国的枪口之下。

Hongda Jiang

It really depends on *HOW* India chooses to attack China.

If India simply attempted to seize disputed territory along the border, the impact would be negligible, & the Indian army can be easily repelled given the logistical & firepower advantage that the PLA has in the locale.

这真的取决于印度打算如何进攻中国。

如果印度只是试图占领边境的争议领土，那么对中国经济的影响将微不足道，解放军在边境地区拥有后勤和火力优势，印度军队很容易就会被击退。

However, if India attempted to interdict Chinese ship in the Indian Ocean, the damage would be significantly greater, but the entire world’s economy would suffer even greater collateral damage. How exactly would India impose such a naval blockade against the PRC? Sure they can interdict any ship that flies a PRC flag, but the majority of the ship that runs through China are flagged by 3rd countries, & there’s little India can do to prevent container ships from flying other flags. They can attempt to interdict ships that are on their way to China, but container ships don’t exclusively transport goods to just China, they’ll server anyone & everyone in the entire region. So by attempting to interdict trade vessels in the Indian Ocean, it’d be an act of war against virtually EVERYONE, including Japan, S. Korea, ASEAN, Africa, GCC, & even the US. Moreover, even though the PLAN’s presence in the Indian Ocean is minimal, it doesn’t mean India will have free reign in the AO. The PLA’s ASBMs & hypersonic missiles have more than enough range to hit Indian naval vessels & ports, when launched from SW PRC.

但如果印度试图拦截中国在印度洋的航运，中国经济的损失会大很多，但整个世界经济也将遭受更大的连带损害。印度会如何对中国实施这种海上封锁？

当然，印度可以拦截所有悬挂中国国旗的船只，但通过中国的大多数船只都悬挂第三国国旗，印度无力拦截悬挂其他国旗的集装箱船。

集装箱船并不只向中国运输货物，它们为整个地区提供服务。因此，在印度洋拦截贸易船只，等同于对所有国家挑起战争，包括日本、韩国、东盟、非洲、海湾合作委员会，甚至是美国。

此外，解放军若从中国西南部发射反舰弹道导弹和高超音速导弹，射程足以打击印度海军舰艇和港口。

Finally, India always has the nuclear option, but we all know how that ends. Even the US can’t neutralize the PLARF’s nuclear deterrence in a first strike, let alone India.

Bottom line - India has nothing to gain by becoming other countries’ cannon fodder & attacking the PRC.

最后，印度当然还可以动用核武器，但我们都知道结果会如何。就连美国也无法在第一次打击中摧毁解放军的核威慑，更不用说印度了。

所以，成为其他国家的炮灰和攻打中国，都对印度没有任何好处。

Qi Chen

Question: If India attacked China, what would be the impact on the Chinese economy?

Answer:

Erm, I don’t think you quite realize the amount of strategic advantage China has over India:

This is Aksai Chin:

问：如果印度攻打中国，对中国经济会有什么影响？

答：嗯，我认为你没有完全意识到中国对印度拥有多么大的战略优势：

这是阿克塞钦：

The red circle on the map there is the Southern end of Aksai Chin, moving about 300km south of that will be…New Delhi.

And China, since 1970s, have stationed their rocket artillery and missile troops at the particular location.

Yes, in the the past half a century, the capital of India has been sitting right down Chinese artillery.

地图上的红圈是阿克塞钦的南端，向南大约300公里就是新德里。

自上世纪70年代以来，中国一直在该地区部署火箭炮兵和导弹部队。

是的，在过去的半个世纪里，印度首都一直被中国的大炮射程笼罩着。

This is equivalent of US capital being in Washington DC and USSR is setting up the missiles in Philadelphia.

Look, the Chinese withdraw after successfully defeating Indian forces in 1962 for a good reason: getting a supply line through Himalayan mountain is not something anyone wish to do, but the Chinese is also not stupid, they are not going to leave without taking full advantage of India’s defeat.

Aksai Chin is an insurance that if a future war breakout between China and India, China will be at maxmum strategic advantage.

这相当于美国的首都是华盛顿，苏联则在费城部署导弹。

你要明白，中国在1962年成功击败印度军队后就撤退，理由很充分：打通一条穿过喜马拉雅山脉的补给线不是正常人的选择，中国人也不傻，他们不会在印度战败之前就撤离。

阿克赛钦是一个保障，如果未来中印真的爆发战争，中国拥有很大的战略优势。

inrong W

Why did India attack China? Don’t Indian politicians know that they can’t beat China? Threats of war and actual war are two different things, and Indian politicians will not be so stupid.

为什么印度要攻打中国？难道印度政客不知道印度打不过中国吗？战争威胁和真正的战争是两回事，印度政客才不会这么愚蠢呢。

Answer this question: India’s attack on China will not affect any Chinese economy, because it is India’s offensive, not China’s invading India, so other countries in the world will only call on China to stop and not defeat India, and will not help India attack China, because They all know that a war with China cannot be won. In fact, if India really attacks China, China will not end the war anytime soon. China will take all its troops for training, because the Chinese army has not been fighting for a long time. They will not let this opportunity pass. Yes, live ammunition training. . The last army will directly wipe out the Indian army. Whether you believe it or not, China has this strength and so much money to support it, but what about India? They can't consume such a long war.

针对这个问题：印度攻打中国完全不会影响中国的经济，因为这是印度单方面进攻中国，而非中国进攻印度，所以世界上其他国家只会呼吁中国克制，并不会帮助印度攻打中国，因为他们都知道印度不可能打赢中国。

事实上，如果印度真的攻打中国，中国不会轻易结束战争。中国会派出所有部队进行轮番练兵，因为中国军队已经很久没有实战过了。他们不会放过这个机会。没错，他们会把这个机会当做实弹训练，并让最后一支军队直接灭了印度军队。

不管你信不信，中国有这个实力，也有钱来支撑，但印度呢？他们根本无力维系如此漫长的战争。

Peter Kaye

Well anonymous, China would love that, give their guys something to do, but then why would India attack China? For what reason? Yes it would hurts Chinas economy, and they wouldn’t like that in the least, but it would wipe out Indias economy completely, just think, Indias economy Is service based, while Chinas is manufacturing based, which one do you think would have the upper hand? Nope forget about India attacking China, it would be suicidal.

中国会很喜欢的，这样可以给中国军人们找些事做，但为什么印度要攻打中国呢？图什么呢？没错，这可以损伤中国的经济，中国也不喜欢，但这么做会彻底摧毁印度的经济，想想看，印度经济以服务业为基础，而中国经济以制造业为基础，你认为哪一方能占据上风？不，别意淫印度攻打中国了，对印度而言这绝对是自杀行为。

Michael Ciao

China and India cannot fight even if they want to. Their jets cannot reach other, too far and too high, commercial jets don’t fly over that region for the same reason. They can’t send too many troops there, tanks and artillery don’t work well, too high and too far. Their navies can’t fight because both don’t have what it takes to sail so far in any meaningful size, again too far. They can’t spit that far.

Fight over what? Land with nobody, no natural resources, no farm no nothing.

中国和印度就算想打也打不起来。他们的飞机无法飞到彼此的地盘，因为太远太高了，商用飞机也不会飞越该地区。他们都无法向该地区派遣太多部队，坦克和大炮也不能正常发挥，太高太远了。他们的海军无法参战，他们都没有足够的能力进行远航，距离太远了。他们只能望洋兴叹。

这场战争的目的是什么？没有人烟，没有自然资源，没有农场，什么都没有的的土地？

What if one wins or loses? Meaningless, because both sides will declare victory, nobody believe nobody, “Western Experts” will release some studies later which nobody believe. What’s the point of wng?

What if China wins and occupies India? What are they going to do or feed a billion Indians? Or India wins, what do they do? have you seen India. do you know how poor and messed up India is?

It is useful to stir up some skirmishes to release the tension and build nationalism in both countries.

一方赢了或输了又怎样？毫无意义，因为双方都会宣布自己获胜，谁也不相信谁，“西方专家”会发布一些没人相信的研究结论。所谓的胜利，意义何在？

如果中国赢了，占领了印度怎么办？他们想做什么，难道养活10亿印度人？又或者印度赢了，他们会怎么做？你去过印度吗？你知道印度有多穷多乱吗？

为了缓解两国的紧张局势和竖立民族主义，挑起一些冲突倒是有用的。