What will happen to Saudi Arabia's economy if EVs become a standard over the next 15 years in Europe, the United States, and China?

如果未来15年电动汽车在欧洲、美国和中国普及开来，沙特阿拉伯的经济将会变成什么样？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Eric Krofchak

For Saudi Arabia its not so much about when EV’s take over as much as when Gwar goes dry. Gwar is their main oil field. It’s the largest oil field ever discovered and was full of light sweet crude. Issue is they’ve been pum away at it for about 70 years now. Back before the Saudi’s nationalized the oil industry there was fairly good data about how much was left. Now it’s the most closely guarded secret the Saudi’s have. If memory serves they’ve been reporting no drop in the amount of oil the field contains for the last 20–30 years or so. But they’ve been pum something like 2,000,000 barrels of oil a day out of the field, every day, for the last 20–30 years. Worse for them is that because of the way they withdraw the oil. They, in effect, flush the oil from the field by pum water into the outskirts of the field to force the oil to rise to the center where they draw it off from the top of the oil pocket (oil floats on the water). They can in effect keep up full production up until the moment the water reached the wells in the center. At that point the wells will stop extracting oil and start pulling out the water that was pumped in. Since their economy is almost completely dependent upon oil, loosing their biggest source over, what will likely be, a couple of year time frame will likely be disastrous. Especially if they have not diversified their economy by then.

对沙特阿拉伯来说，电动车何时称霸市场并不重要，重要的是Gwar油田何时干涸。Gwar油田是他们的主要油田。这是迄今为止发现的最大的油田，富含轻质低硫原油。

但也已经开采了70年了。早在沙特将石油行业国有化之前，就调查过剩余的石油储量，这是沙特保守的最高等级的秘密。

如果我没记错的话，过去的二三十年里沙特坚称该油田的石油储量并未出现下降。但他们每天都从该油田里开采大约200万桶石油。

对他们来说更糟糕的还是开采石油的方式。他们把水抽到油田的外围，把石油推高，并从油层的顶部抽取石油(石油比水轻，会浮在水面上)。

他们可以持续开采，直到油井中心只剩下水。到那时，油井就无法继续开采出石油了。

沙特的经济几乎完全依赖于石油开采，如果几年后沙特尚未及时实现经济多元化转型，失去最大的石油来源可能会给沙特经济带来灾难性的后果。

Daneal FSillassie

If EVs become a standard over the next 15 years in Europe and the United States, it will have a significant impact on Saudi Arabia's economy.

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter, and its economy is heavily reliant on oil revenue. If the demand for oil declines, as it is expected to do with the adoption of EVs, Saudi Arabia's economy will suffer.

如果未来15年电动汽车在欧洲、美国和中国普及开来，沙特阿拉伯的经济将会变成什么样？

沙特阿拉伯是全球最大的石油出口国，经济严重依赖石油收入。如果如人们预测的那样，随着电动汽车的普及，全球对石油的需求下降，沙特阿拉伯的经济必将受到影响。

The government of Saudi Arabia has already taken steps to diversify its economy away from oil, but it will be a challenge to do so quickly enough to offset the decline in oil revenue.

In the short term, the decline in oil revenue could lead to a recession in Saudi Arabia. The government may need to cut spending or raise taxes to balance its budget. This could lead to job losses and a decline in living standards.

In the long term, Saudi Arabia could become a major exporter of solar and wind energy. The country has abundant renewable energy resources, and it is well-positioned to become a leader in the global clean energy market.

However, it will take time for Saudi Arabia to transition to a clean energy economy. In the meantime, the country will need to find ways to reduce its reliance on oil revenue. This will be a challenge, but it is essential for the long-term health of the Saudi economy.

沙特阿拉伯政府已经采取措施，拓展经济的多元化转型，力求降低对石油的依赖，但要想快速弥补石油收入的下降，还是困难重重。

短期内，石油收入的下降可能导致沙特阿拉伯的经济出现衰退。政府可能需要削减开支或增加税收来平衡预算，这可能会导致失业率的上升和生活水平的下降。

从长远来看，沙特阿拉伯可能成为太阳能和风能的主要出口国。沙特拥有丰富的可再生能源资源，有能力成为全球清洁能源市场的领导者。

但沙特阿拉伯实现向清洁能源经济转型尚需时日，沙特必须寻找降低对石油收入依赖的方法。这并非易事，但对沙特经济的长期健康至关重要。

Here are some specific impacts that the adoption of EVs could have on Saudi Arabia's economy:

•      The government would lose out on billions of dollars in oil revenue.

•      The oil and gas industry would experience job losses.

•      The economy would become more reliant on tourism and other non-oil sectors.

•      The government would need to invest in renewable energy and other clean technologies.

•      Saudi Arabia would become a more attractive destination for foreign investment.

Overall, the adoption of EVs would have a significant impact on Saudi Arabia's economy. It would create some challenges, but it would also create opportunities. The government of Saudi Arabia will need to be proactive in planning for this transition and in taking steps to mitigate the negative impacts.

以下是电动汽车的普及可能对沙特经济产生的一些具体影响：

•沙特政府将损失数十亿美元的石油收入。

•沙特的石油和天然气行业将出现失业现象。

•沙特经济将更加依赖旅游业和其他非石油部门。

•沙特政府需要投资可再生能源和其他清洁技术。

•沙特阿拉伯将成为更具吸引力的外国投资目的地。

总的来说，电动汽车的普及将对沙特阿拉伯的经济产生重大影响。这是挑战，也是机遇。沙特阿拉伯政府需要积极规划，采取措施尽量降低负面影响。

Clifford Nelson

Will need a lot more electric power generated to create energy needed to recharge all those electric vehicles. Electric power demand will be increased a lot, and remember that EVs are a lot heavier than ICV because those batteries weigh a lot more than the gas in the gas tanks. And also there will be loses involved in conversions, although regenerative breaking will help a lot.

电动车的普及需要更多的电力资源为电动汽车充电。电力需求将会大幅增加，记住，电动汽车比燃油车重很多，因为电动汽车的电池比油箱里的汽油重得多。电能转换过程中也会出现能量损失。

There are so many issues with going totally to EVs. Recharging is not a problem for those that have houses with driveways and garages, but those that have to part on the street cannot recharge so easily. Also will require massive increases in extraction of more rare minerals, which is going to require energy, and these resources are much harder to extract than iron and aluminum since they are not as common.

电动汽车全面代替燃油车，会出现很多问题。对于那些有车道和车库的人来说，充电不难，但对于只能将车泊在路边的车主而言，充电就是个麻烦事了。电动车还需要加大开采更多稀有矿物，这些矿石比铁和铝更难开采，需要耗费不少资源。

Richard Plunkett

Saudi Arabia's production costs are fairly low so it should be able to remain in the market for oil products longer than most. Russia on the other hand will struggle. Ships, aircraft and heavy vehicles will probably rely on carbon fuels for decades.

沙特阿拉伯的石油生产成本很低，所以应该能够比其他产油国多撑一段时间。不过俄罗斯可能就会处境艰难了。在未来几十年，船舶、飞机和重型车辆可能还会继续依赖燃油。

Cactus Jack

Nothing, because regardless of what the USA and the West do in the next 15 years, the BRICKS countries will still be buying Saudi Oil for a long long long time.

By the way, the US government investigated how long it would take the world to properly stop using fossil fuels, and the answer was over 200 years.

So I don’t think the Saudis have to worry much about nobody wanting their oil for a long time.

别慌，不管美国和西方在未来15年怎么变，金砖国家会继续在很长很长一段时间内购买沙特石油。

顺便说一下，美国政府曾经调查过全世界需要多长时间才能完全停止对化石燃料的需要，答案是200多年。

所以我认为沙特在很长一段时间内都无需太过担心石油无人问津的事。

Jeff Fisher

15 years?

Right now, the average age of a vehicle on the road is over 12 years old. Right now, my state has around a one percentage of EVs on the road.

ICE vehicles have a long way to go before they are a minority of vehicles.

15年？

现在道路上行驶的这些车辆，平均使用年限超过12年。目前我所在的州里电动汽车的占比只有区区的1%。

想要大规模取代燃油汽车，且得久呢。

Patrick Ferrin

There are somewhere around one billion cars on earth. The US makes and sells 15–20 million cars and there are more than one hundred mllion at least on the road. Okay Tesla may get to one million cars in America.

地球上大约有10亿辆汽车。美国每年生产和销售1500万至2000万辆汽车，至少有1亿辆汽车在路上行驶。特斯拉在美国的销量可能在100万辆左右。

Thus far trucks have been a complete flop as you-tube videos show these trucks cannot pull a boat/trailer 100 miles in perfect weather. There is quite a challenge as larger batteries make the truck weigh over 9000 pounds and now you cannot drive the truck on your residential street plus a commercial drivers license is required, truck driving log, health exam by a doctor every six months, road flares, first aid kit and DOT sticker if the truck is used for business. Oh you own a lawn car business and pull a trailer, now the county mounties are pulling you over for safety checks.

现在电动卡车还不太行，youtube上有些视频显示这些卡车在天气良好时也没能将船或拖车拖行超过100英里。如果配备更多电池，卡车重量就要超过9000磅，现在住宅街道上卡车不能通行，如果卡车是用于商业用途，驾驶员需要考取商业驾驶执照，每六个月做一次体检，需要配备道路照明弹，急救箱和交通运输部标记。

Basically a truck used to haul/tow will need 200–300 kwh battery and now a basic truck is 150K. I predict that in 10 years we will be lucky if there are 15–20 million electric cars in the US. Meanwhile, airplanes, cargo ships, trains and 90% of all OTL semi trucks will remain fossil fuel burning.

Within five years there will be massive environmental fights over pollution caused from batteries and the mining completely damaging 20% of the ground water from millions of tons of sulfuric acid needed to mine all these metals.

所以用于牵引的电动卡车需要配备200-300千瓦时的电池，现在低配卡车只装配了150千瓦时的电池。我猜10年内美国最多能有1500万到2000万辆电动汽车。但是飞机、货船、火车和90%的半拖卡车还是会继续使用化石燃料。

五年内就会出现大规模的环保抗议，因为电池造成了极大污染，开采矿石需要数百万吨硫酸，严重污染了20%的地下水资源。

Felix Su

People don’t realize that the world doesn’t need to not use oil. The price of oil is dependent on the total amount used.

If the amount use drops by 20% then the price of oil will drop, a lot. Forget about the next 15 years. In 5 years at most, the price of oil will hit a new low due to EVs in China alone.

Because China uses about 10 million barrels a day. If China imports only 5 million. The price will drop like a rock due to massive over supply in the market.

15 years? The price of oil will hit a low. I would have to go and do some calculations to figure out what it would be with the money inflation but it will be equivalent to $1 a gallon of gas.

So ironically, if the US is the last holdout on EVs, we will see a new low price in gas.

人们还没有意识到这个世界并不需要戒石油。石油的价格取决于消耗量。

如果消耗量下降20%，那么石油价格就会下降，大幅下降。别管什么15年了，最多5年，单单一个中国，电动汽车的普及就会让石油价格创下新低。

这是因为中国目前每天需要消耗大约1000万桶石油。如果未来中国只进口500万桶，市场供过于求，石油价格就会出现暴跌。

15年后石油价格可能会跌至最低点。我需要计算一下在通货膨胀的情况下的石油价格，但可能会跌至一加仑1美元吧。

所以，非常讽刺的是，如果美国最后也加入电动汽车的阵营，我们可能会见证汽油价格创下历史新低。

Chris Balesteri

EVs are powered by…. what?

You guessed it, oil and natural gas which generates electricity which runs EVs.

电动汽车的动力来源是…？

没错，你猜对了，让电动汽车跑起来的电力是石油和天然气燃烧产生的。

Yausi Tamn

Your question sounds superficial , what can happen to Saudi Arabia's economy ? Saudi Arabia can throw away every penny they have into the sea and earn it all over again and crush your head with that weight

你的问题实在肤浅，沙特的经济能发生什么变化？沙特阿拉伯可以把他们所有的钱都扔进海里，然后再重新赚出金山银山，再用这些钱压碎你的头盖骨。