拉古拉姆·拉詹说世界无法承受印度成为和中国一样的制造业强国，因为会损害环境

Raghuram Rajan says "world cannot afford" India becoming a manufacturing powerhouse like China because it will hurt the environment. What do you think?

拉古拉姆·拉詹说世界无法承受印度成为和中国一样的制造业强国，因为会损害环境，你觉得呢？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Siva Kumar Bachoti

what exactly Raghuram Rajan said?

“Weightless services also consume little energy on the way to the final consumer, unlike manufactured goods. Export-led services growth will be much less environmentally harmful – the world cannot afford India to follow China’s path, even if it were open to it,”

Sometimes this “Thinker” forgets to wear his thinking hat!

Rajan is so much worried about the potential impact of manufacturing on the environment that he clean forgets commonsense.

拉古拉姆·拉詹到底说了什么？

“与制成品不同，非实体服务在流向最终消费者的过程中消耗的能源很少。以出口为导向的服务业增长对环境的危害将大大降低—即使印度有能力，世界也无法承担印度跟随中国的脚步。”

有些时候，这位“思考者”会忘记戴上思考的帽子！

拉詹太过担心制造业对环境的影响，担心到完全忘记了常识。

Manufacturing need not necessarily impact the environment provided, emissions are tightly controlled. But develo countries lack the technology, skills and the money to implement effective measures to limit emissions.

That means, the developed West must provide the wherewithal if it is really worried about “we” polluting the environment. Instead, they blame the develo world and Rajan blindly joins the chorus.

These industrialized countries outsourced many polluting industries to China for example, to cut costs and maxmized their profits.

如果污染排放得到严格控制，制造业不见得一定会对环境造成影响。但是发展中国家缺乏治理污染的技术，能力和资金，无法实施有效措施来限制污染物排放。

这意味着，如果西方发达国家真的担心“我们”污染环境，就必须提供必要的资金。但事实上他们只会一味指责发展中国家，而拉詹也盲目地加入了这一行列。

这些工业化国家为了削减成本、实现利润最大化，将许多污染行业外包给了中国。

Say, we diligently apply the “Rajan Plan” and production costs rise significantly. Will Rajan convince them to pay higher prices for our products? What he can do? Nothing!

Their environment is clean and now they feel free to blame us for the sin via measures like carbon tax. How come Rajan misses this extortion & blackmail?

That is, you slog to make the products for the West cheap and yet you pay the penalty too. In that case, why they don’t take back all those polluting industries and solve their unemployment problem too?

So long as it suited the West (and USA), they didn’t care how China met their “cheap products” demand. Today they want to punish China for their blunder in letting it grow. It was their business policy decision to put all the eggs in the China basket. Whose fault it is?

比如，我们努力实施“拉詹计划”，生产成本大幅上升。拉詹会说服他们为产品支付更高的价格吗？他能做什么？他什么也做不了！

他们的环境倒是干干净净，现在他们却肆无忌惮地通过碳排放税等措施来定我们的罪。拉詹怎么会错过这种敲诈勒索呢？

也就是说，你辛辛苦苦地为西方制造廉价产品，还要支付罚金。既然如此，为什么他们不把污染工业迁回国内，顺便解决他们的失业问题呢？

只要符合西方(和美国)的利益，他们压根不在乎中国为了满足他们对“廉价产品”的需求做了什么。今天，他们想惩罚中国，是因为他们不小心让中国得到了发展的机会。他们自己制定了商业策略，把所有的鸡蛋都放在中国篮子里。这究竟是谁的错？

If Rajan is losing sleep over “polluting industries of the develo world”, he should be properly pressurizing the West (and USA) to supply the necessary technologies and also be willing to pay higher prices for the “environmentally neutral” manufacturing. Instead, he tells India, “You just don’t do it”. Makes sense to you?

Say, India keeps off manufacturing as Rajan advises. What happens? It will be only playing China’s game. China is already a manufacturing giant, The “Rajan Plan” will not affect them. This Plan, if implemented, will hurt other develo countries to help China.

如果拉詹因为“发展中国家的污染工业”而寝食难安，他更应该向西方(和美国)施压，让他们提供必要的技术，为“符合环保要求”的工业产品支付更高的价格。可他却告诉印度，“你不要这样做就行了”。你觉得合适吗？

比如说，如果印度按照拉詹的建议远离制造业，会发生什么呢？中国已经是一个制造业巨头，“拉詹计划”不会对中国造成影响。可这个计划如果真的实施，将会伤害其他发展中国家，帮助中国。

Services sector develops out of manufacturing capability. That was what happened in the West. India does have services sector but it is quite low tech. Why? Because we have not yet got the skills of hi-tech manufacturing. One example will make my point clear - India does not produce aircraft engines, it can not do it today. How can India provide hi-tech “service” support without deep knowledge there?

服务业的发展离不开制造能力。印度确实有服务业，但技术水平很低，为什么？因为我们没有高科技制造业。举个例子证明我的观点吧—印度不生产飞机引擎，没有深厚的知识，印度如何提供高科技“服务”？

Ship breaking is a highly polluting and very dangerous industry. Yet, the Developed countries dump their decommissioned ships in the develo world. And then the likes of Rajan write lengthy articles in their newspapers on how illiterate poor people are dying out there in India!

e-waste recycling pollutes the earth, dangerous chemicals like cadmium seep into the earth, not to say it irreversibly damages workers’ health. Yet, the Developed world dumps all its used electronics in the third world.

拆船是一个高污染的高危行业。但发达国家会把退役船舶丢在发展中国家。然后拉詹之流就会在他们的报纸上发表长篇大论，说印度目不识丁的穷人们如何如何命丧九泉！

电子垃圾的回收也会污染地球，镉等危险化学物质渗入土壤，更不可逆转地损害了工人的健康。但发达国家还是把所有的废旧电子产品都丢到第三世界。

Spent nuclear fuel can be used for making bombs. But for that fact, developed countries would happily bribe some dr of a Banana Republic and dump all their nuclear waste there!!!

To sum up, when our intellectuals sing West’s “pollution” song, they should be doing it out of complete ignorance or they are acting as agents of the West. Which type is Raghuram Rajan?

用过的核燃料可以用来制造炸弹。但为此发达国家会很高兴贿赂中南美洲国家的独才者，把他们的核废料倾倒在那儿！！

总而言之，当我们的知识分子高唱西方的“污染”之歌时，他们要么是完全无知之徒，要么是西方国家的喉舌。拉古拉姆·拉詹是哪一种呢？

Climate change, extreme weather and global warming

I agree, we have no right to recklessly pollute the environment. I also agree it will impact us and other species too. After all, we are not the owners of this planet.

My point is, though climate change is happening - we are seeing global pattern change - the whole issue is deliberately fudged by West (and USA) vested interests. They talk about climate change, extreme weather and global warming in one breath and then blame the developed countries for that.

气候变化、极端天气和全球变暖

我同意，人类没有权利肆意污染环境。我也同意污染也会影响我们和其他物种。毕竟，人类并非这个星球的主人。

我的观点是，尽管地球气候正在发生变化—全球格局也在变化—这一整个问题都被西方(和美国)既得利益集团故意回避。他们一边谈论气候变化、极端天气和全球变暖，一边又指责发达国家。

It common to hear people blaming global warming and it is true. What is not true is, the global warming is entirely man-made.

Any climatologist will tell you, the earth has a calendar of climate changes. Perhaps you read it somewhere, “During the last minor [major] ice age……”

The earth undergoes a minor ice age every 20,000 years and a major ice age every few lakhs of years. We are now approaching the next minor ice age. What we see as significant climate changes, is part of that process.

That “20,000 years” number is not random, it has a very good reason, as the below shows:

经常能听到人们指责全球变暖，这是千真万确的事。但有一点是不对的：全球变暖并不完全是人为造成的。

所有气候学家都会告诉你，地球气候存在变化周期。也许你也曾经读过，“在最后的小[大]冰河时代......”

地球每2万年会经历一次小冰河期，每几十万年经历一次大冰河期。我们正在接近下一个小冰河期。我们所见证的重大气候变化，都是这个过程的组成部分。

“20000年”这个数字并不是随机的，它是有充足理由支撑的：

A century ago, Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch hypothesized, the long-term, collective effects of changes in Earth’s position relative to the Sun are a strong driver of Earth’s long-term climate, and are responsible for triggering the begng and end of glaciation periods (Ice Ages).

Milutin examined how variations in three types of Earth orbital movements affect the solar radiation (insolation) reaching the earth. These cyclical orbital movements (Milankovitch cycles), cause variations of up to 25 percent in the amount of incoming insolation at Earth’s mid-latitudes (the areas between about 30 and 60 degrees N and S of the equator).

一个世纪前，塞尔维亚科学家米卢廷·米兰科维奇提出假设，地球相对于太阳的位置变化的长期、综合影响是地球长期气候变化的强大驱动因素，会造成冰河期的开始和结束。

米卢廷验证了三种类型的地球轨道运动的变化如何影响太阳辐射(日晒)到达地球。这些周期性的轨道运动(米兰科维奇周期)显示地球中纬度地区(赤道北纬30度到60度之间的地区)的日照量变化高达25%。

The Milankovitch cycles

The shape of Earth’s orbit (eccentricity)

The angle of (“tilt”) of Earth’s axs is tilted with respect to Earth’s orbital plane (obliquity) and

The direction Earth’s axs of rotation is pointed (precession)

These cycles affect the amount of sunlight and therefore, energy, that earth absorbs from the Sun. They provide a strong framework for understanding long-term changes in Earth’s climate, including the begng and end of Ice Ages throughout earth’s history.

米兰科维奇周期

地球轨道的形状(偏心率)

地轴的角度(倾斜角)相对于地球的轨道平面倾斜(倾斜角)和

地球转轴的指向(岁差)

这些周期影响了地球从太阳吸收的光照和热量。它们为了解地球气候的长期变化，包括地球历史上冰河时期的开始和结束，提供了一个令人信服的参照标准。

Milankovitch combined the cycles to create a comprehensive mathematical model for calculating differences in solar radiation at various Earth latitudes along with corresponding surface temperatures.

He calculated that Ice Ages occur approxmately every 41,000 years. Subsequent research confirms that they did occur at 41,000-year intervals between one and three million years ago. But about 800,000 years ago, the cycle of Ice Ages lengthened to 100,000 years, matching Earth’s eccentricity cycle.

米兰科维奇将这些周期结合起来，创建了一个综合的数学模型来计算地球不同纬度的太阳光照以及相应的地表温度的差异。

他计算出冰河期大约每41000年发生一次。随后的研究证实，在过去100万到300万年，确实每隔41000年左右就发生一次。但大约800,000年前，冰河期的周期延长到100000年，和地球的偏心率周期匹配。

Scientific research to better understand the mechanisms that cause changes in Earth’s rotation and how specifically Milankovitch cycles combine to affect climate is ongoing.

科学家们正在进行研究，以便更好地了解导致地球自转变化的机制以及如何结合米兰科维奇周期来影响气候。

Glenn Lee

Did you ever visited London in the 60s? All the buildings, the statues were black, stained with the soot from burning coal that powered their industrial revolution. Were the British concerned for the environment at the time?

Besides the new industries will be powered by new technology which may be less polluting or not polluting. Further any pollution that develop from any new industry will promote the development of a new antipollution industry.

Fear of the past rarely propels one to the future.

你曾在60年代去过伦敦吗？当时所有的建筑和雕像都是黑乎乎的，沾满了为工业革命提供动力的煤炭燃烧产生的烟尘。当时的英国人关心环境吗？

污染较低或无污染的新技术可能会驱动新产业的发展。此外，任何一个新行业产生的污染都会促进一个新的抗污染行业的发展。

对过去的恐惧，不会推动一个人走向未来。

Naeem Sharif

One power house is enough, India is already a dirty shithole with respect to pollution. India needs to stay put and stop trying to reach for the stars.

一个发电站就够了，印度已经是非常脏乱的污染之地了。印度应该就此收手，别做工业强国的美梦了。

Kantibhushan Sharma

Why don't you jokers give this advice to China to Korea or to any other country?

The pathetic self certified anti Indian intellectuals!!!!!!!!!!!!

你们这些跳梁小丑为什么不给中国、韩国或其他国家送点建议呢？

可悲的不打自招的反印度知识分子

Sumanth

Uhhhhh.

Is he a Woke Neoliberal or a Neocon?

Dr. Rajan is parroting the SAME talking points of many Woke liberals in The US and The West who endlessly blame India and China for the climate crises without pointing to ACTUAL solutions that:

Can lift people out of poverty

Can solve the climate crisis through clean energy

I may be wrong but isn’t his first degree in engineering?

Where are the two words “Nuclear Energy” in his thesis?

For the billionth time, China’s emissions are high because they manufacture close to 40% of the c**p we consume.

他究竟是觉醒的新自由主义者还是新保守主义者？

拉詹博士只是在复述美国和西方许多觉醒的自由主义者的观点，他们因为气候危机无休止地指责印度和中国，但没有给出任何实际的解决方案：

帮助人们摆脱贫困

用清洁能源解决气候危机

我有可能记错了，但他的第一个学位难道不是工程学吗？

他的论文里何时出现了“核能”这两个字？

再说十亿次也是一样，中国的排放量很高是因为他们生产了全球近40%的商品。

Varun Rao

China became a manufacturing powerhouse using the technology of the 1980s and 1990s. High Capex, high energy consumption, dependent on vast amounts of oil and power, and contributing significantly to greenhouse gas emissions.

India has the advantage of 2022 technology. Less energy use per ton of product, better designs, better planning and less dependence on foreign oil and raw materials.

Blindly copying China is not in our interest.

中国用20世纪80年代和90年代的技术发展成了制造业强国。高资本、高能源消耗，依赖大量的石油和电力，对温室气体排放作出了重要贡献。

而印度拥有2022年新技术的优势。每吨产品的能源消耗更少，设计更好，规划也更好，对外国石油和原材料的依赖也更少。

盲目地照搬中国的经验不符合印度的利益。