Why is the 21st century more likely to be the Indian century than the Chinese century?

为什么说21世纪是印度的世纪，不是中国的世纪？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Paul Denlinger

It won’t be the Indian century because Indian society does not meet the basic requirements for being a modern society.

A modern society does not discriminate against members of society simply on the basis of birth, because they believe human talent should be allowed to flourish regardless of anyone’s social background at birth.

Because of the Indian caste system, India does not do this, and caste discrimination continues. As Indian becomes more powerful and grows, more countries will become aware of the caste system, and this will form a glass ceiling for India’s growth.

The only way for India to deal with this problem is to meet it headfirst, and through a combination of social reform and legislation, make a clean break with the caste system.

21世纪不可能是印度的世纪，因为印度社会不符合现代社会的基本要求。

现代社会不会仅仅因为家庭出身而歧视社会成员，现代社会认为无论出生时的背景如何，人类的才能都应该得到充分发挥。

但印度的种姓制度使得印度没能这么做，种姓歧视继续存在。随着印度变得更加强大和发展，更多的国家将发现印度的种姓制度，这会成为印度发展的天花板。

印度要解决这一问题，唯一的方法就是正视这个问题，通过社会改革和立法相结合，最终实现与种姓制度彻底决裂。

Alvin Lee

Good then ! Go ahead and let US ay more attention to India rather than paying more attention on China.

China just wanna quietly working on keep improving the Chinese livelihood and improving Chinese happiness ratings and driving more poverty alleviation and continue with its war against corruptions.

很好啊！继续冲，让美国多关注关注印度，别管中国了。

中国只想悄悄努力，提高中国人的生活水平，提高中国人的幸福指数，推动扶贫工作并继续打击腐败。

Dan-Wee Loh

I disagree. The 21 Century will be the Chinese Century.

Of course western nations and western presstitutes can disagree. Please ask how many Western MNCs had successfully FDI in India. Coca Cola, McDonalds, Dunkin' Donuts, GM, Danone, and even Apple’s outsourcing Contract manufacturer Foxconn also fail to relocate the manufacutring to India and niw Foxconn is returning back to China !

我不同意。21世纪是中国的世纪。

当然，西方国家和西方机构可能会有不同的意见。请问一下，有多少西方跨国公司在印度进行了外国直接投资。可口可乐、麦当劳、邓肯甜甜圈、通用汽车、达能，甚至苹果的外包合同制造商富士康都没有把生产转移到印度，富士康已经又回流中国了！

Shell operated 175 retail kiosks in India as of December 2019.

Compare that with China, Shell operates a retail network of more than 1,700 service stations through joint ventures and wholly-owned companies.

Exxon Mobil operated approxmately 700 gas stations in China. In contrast, ExxonMobil has offices in India in Bengaluru, Mumbai, no mentioning of number of retail kiosk operating in India.

No doubt India will catch up. But India still has a long way behind..

壳牌在印度只有175个零售点。但在中国，壳牌通过合资企业和全资公司运营着一个由1700多个加油站组成的零售网络。

埃克森美孚在中国经营着大约700家加油站。相比之下，埃克森美孚在印度班加罗尔、孟买只设有办事处，没有公布过印度零售点的数量。

我不怀疑印度会迎头赶上，但印度还有很长的路要走…

SK Menon

Any century except in sports & age has nothing to do with any country/ Nation.

Remember its how the new educational Collegium's , youth movementum , technology momentum and trade nurtured to better Nature and smart Management to/ by/ for all — is that sparks the values for that period of time

除了体育和时代，任何一个世纪都与任何国家/民族无关。

请记住，新的教育学院、青年运动、科技势头和贸易往来是如何培养出更自然和更明智的管理艺术的—这激发了那个时代的价值观。

Peter Kaye

Please stop dreaming, won’t happen. India is so far behind, just thinking about passing China is kinda funny, it already is Chinas century, there is no doubt about that whatsoever, maybe the next one? or the one after that?

快醒醒，别做梦了。印度落后太多了，还妄想超过中国，着实可笑，现在已经是中国的世纪了，这是毫无疑问的。等到下个世纪或许有可能？或者还得再多等等？

Alex Shim

In my honest opinion, the 21st century will not be an Indian century because when referencing their historic ambition in regards to conquering foreign lands. There is no one Indian conqueror that will stand out like a Genghis Khan or Alexander the Great. Also, when measuring their achievements as country as a whole, only being the populous nation and being the 5th largest economy are real intangible metrics.

看看印度开疆拓土的历史野心，21世纪不会是印度的世纪。印度征服者不可能像成吉思汗或亚历山大大帝那样引人注目。而且，看看印度作为国家的整体成就吧，仅有人口大国和世界第五大经济体这两个无形的头衔。

Jeff Loh

There was once upon a time a crystal ball foretelling the rise of the Pacific Century. To be precise it was in 1992. Let’s see how many years had passed since then… If I have a son, he would be 31 years old now… What had happened since then? All predictions fizzled out.

Then there was the 5th generation computer systems in 1982 with Prolog as the darling computer language… Where are they now?

很久以前，有一个水晶球预言过太平洋世纪的崛起。确切地说，是在1992年。这都多少年过去了，如果我有一个儿子，他现在都该31岁了，但发生了什么呢？所有的预测都以失败告终。

1982年出现了第五代计算机系统，Prolog曾经是最受欢迎的计算机语言……它们现在躲在哪儿呢？

Such crystal balls are invented by people to create a niche for themselves and get rich! Only when the 21st Century ends can we safely say the outcome. I have more faith in StarTrek! Today’s smartphones are based based on their communicators of the 1960s!

Believe what you want to believe. It is your freedom to do so. However, I always smirk at these all knowing gurus. They have a piece of toilet paper called the PhD to espouse their own agenda. As Joan Crawford said in the movie, “The Best of Everything” - “Those who can, do; those who can't, teach.”, attributed to George Bernard Shaw.

这种水晶球都是人们发明创造的，只是为了自己、为了赚钱而设计的！只有等到21世纪结束之时，我们才能放心说出结果。我更相信《星际迷航》！今天的智能手机也是在20世纪60年代的通信器基础上发展而来的！

相信你想相信的。这是你的自由。但我总忍不住嘲笑这些先知。他们拿到了一张名为“博士”的厕纸证明自己的言论。正如琼·克劳馥在电影《最好的一切》中所说的：“有本事的人在做事；没本事的人，在说教。”

Andy Mansfield

Related

Will the 21st century be the Chinese century, the same way the 20th was America's?

According to Ian Morris's Why the West Rules - For Now (2010), it will be.

Using long-term historical patterns to provide possible outcomes in the twenty first century, Morris argues that China will overtake the USA at some point in the mid-century. He believes that this will lead to two potential prognoses: either 'singularity' or 'nightfall', and one of these outcomes will win. For the 'singularity' prognosis, the 'human race' will be transformed as the world homogenises as globalisation leads to the convergence of peoples from around the globe. In the second scenario 'nightfall', a battle for supremacy will ensue in which the result will be a nuclear war. Morris believes that the USA may be forced to strike earlier (2040 ish) while it still possesses a technological edge. But the competition and rivalry will lead to a race for supremacy, and the belief that the USA is weakening may embolden other nations, especially China.

21世纪会是中国的世纪吗，就像20世纪是美国的世纪一样？

根据伊恩·莫里斯在2010年出版的《为什么现在还是西方称霸》一书，21世纪会是中国的世纪。

莫里斯根据历史模式预测了21世纪的可能局面，他认为中国会在本世纪中叶的某个时候超过美国。

他认为，这将导致两种潜在的预测：要么是“奇点”，要么是“黄昏”，其中一种结果将获胜。

对于“奇点”的预测，伴随着世界的同质化趋势，全球化会导致全球各地的人慢慢聚集，“人类”将被转变。而对于第二种预测“黄昏”，霸主地位的争夺将导致核战争。

莫里斯认为，美国可能会被迫提前(2040年左右)动手，但仍然拥有技术优势。竞争和对抗将导致霸权竞赛，而对美国逐步削弱的看法可能会让其他国家-尤其是中国-更受鼓舞。

To be honest, I favour the first of the two scenarios. I am also not certain that China has the same mind-set when it comes to overseas territorial control and influence - well I hope not!

老实说，我更喜欢两种情况中的第一种。我也不确定中国在海外领土的控制权和影响力方面和美国有着一样的心态—我希望不是！

Harvey King

Related

Will the 21st century be China's century or another American century (or even another like India)?

I discussed this with my mainland friend back in year 2000.

I like his answer:

“I don’t know about rather 21st Century is going to be a Chinese one or not. But I am sure 20th Century wasn’t a Chinese one, and I am glad that it’s over.”

21世纪是中国的世纪吗？或者还是美国的世纪(又或者是印度的世纪)?

早在2000年，我就和我的大陆朋友讨论过这个问题。

我喜欢他的回答：

“我不知道21世纪会不会是中国的世纪。但我确信20世纪不是中国的世纪，我很高兴20世纪已经结束了。”

Hank Barley

Related

Will the 21st century be an Asian / Chinese century? Is having the biggest economy a key in this?

Already is. Asia is growing. Virtually all EU companies already established themselves in Asia, and China being the most important to them. Both political parties in the US are very anti Chinese, but nothing is being done to make America more competitive. So, short of a major war, which no one can guarantee an outcome, there is nothing to change this trend.

21世纪会是亚洲/中国的世纪吗？经济规模大是关键因素吗？

现在已经是亚洲/中国的世纪了。亚洲正在发展。几乎所有的欧盟公司都在亚洲开展业务，而中国对它们来说是最为重要的。美国的两个政党都非常反对中国，但他们没有采取任何措施提高美国的竞争力。因此，除非爆发结果难料的重大战争，否则没有什么能改变这一趋势。

Joanna Lao

Related

What will a "Chinese century" look like?

“中国世纪”会是什么样子?

I do not know whether the West like to "predict", may be this is your tradition.

Hou have a good imagination, creativity is also very good, Chinese people do not compare to you.

Lies are considered to be true afte it is said many times.三人成虎

China threat , China collapse , Chinese century, China become dominant, Chinese global domination, G2

All these hats were worn to China by other countries .

不以物喜，不以己悲。闷声发大财。

我不知道西方国家喜不喜欢“预言”，可能这是你们的传统。

你们有很好的想象力和创造力，中国人无法匹敌。

谎言多说几次，就会被当做事实——这就是三人成虎

中国威胁论，中国崩溃论，中国的世纪，中国霸主论，中国主宰论

其他国家把这所有这些帽子都强加在中国头上。

不以物喜，不以己悲。闷声发大财。

ingwei Yang

Related

Will the 21st century “belong” to China?

China will be the most influential country in 21st century, if that’s what you mean by “belong to”.

But China will never seek an intimidating and violent foreign policy like the US. We are not interested in messing up with other people’s internal fairs.

In China you never see people knocking stranger’s door to preach, to tell other people what is wrong and what is right.

21世纪是否“属于”中国？

中国将成为21世纪最具影响力的国家，也许这就是你所说的“属于中国”。

但中国永远不会像美国那样，执行恐吓和暴力的外交政策。我们对干涉别国内政不感兴趣。

在中国，你绝不会看到有人敲开陌生人的门，对着房主一通说教，告诉房主什么是对什么是错。

William Hennigan

Related

Will the 21st century be China's century or another American century?

The 20th century was one where “new” countries arose as unique people cultures established their own countries….many economically not viable. And the 20th century is not over in this regards. The 21st century will be the rise of federations. The economic linking of cultures, or geographies, or even languages. So towards the end of the century it will be the century of the federations, and no stand alone nation will dominate the century.

21世纪是中国的世纪吗？或者还是美国的世纪？

20世纪是一个“新”国家崛起的世纪，凭借独特的民族文化建立自己的国家。在这方面，20世纪还没有结束。21世纪将见证联盟的崛起。不同文化、地理甚至语言之间搭建起经济关联。所以本世纪将是联盟的世纪，没有哪个国家能独力称霸。

Joseph Boyle

Related

Will the 21st century be China's century or another American century (or even another like India)?

I suggest plotting projected future fractions of world GDP or even Asia GDP. China might break 50% of Asian GDP but probably not for long. It is not likely to hit 50% of global GDP as the USA briefly did after WWII.

The “American century”, as far as it exsted at all, was because the world’s other developed regions immolated themselves in war. If everyone other than China fights each other to exhaustion, it could also default to a China-dominant era, but this is not likely.

21世纪是中国的世纪吗？或者还是美国的世纪？(又或者是印度的世纪)？

我建议我们标记一下它们在世界GDP甚至亚洲GDP的比例。中国可能会突破亚洲GDP的50%，但可能不会持续太久，不太可能像美国在二战后一度达到全球GDP的50%。

“美国的世纪”之所以存在，是因为世界上其他发达国家因为战争元气大伤。如果中国之外的所有国家都相互斗到筋疲力尽，中国也可能进入中国称霸的时代，但这并不太可能。