你认为到2040和2050年时，中国会成为超级大国吗

Could you see China becoming the next superpower of the world in 2040 and 2050?

你认为到2040和2050年时，中国会成为超级大国吗？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Start Sameer

Some people believe that the next superpower in the world will be an African nation, but this is expected to happen long after the year 2100.

This idea is based on interpretations of Nostradamus, a historical figure known for making predictions. Some say when he mentioned "the darkest people," he wasn't referring to evil but rather to Africans.

有些人认为下一个超级大国会是个非洲国家，但这估计得等到2100年后才会发生。

这个说法是基于诺查丹玛斯的解读，他是以预测而闻名的历史人物。有些人说他所说的“最黑暗的人”，指的不是邪恶的人，而是非洲人。

According to this interpretation, this rise of African nations as superpowers will occur after significant changes in the world due to global warming. These changes are expected to reshape the world's geography by the begng of the 22nd century, around 2100 AD.

When Nostradamus talks about "kings among men," he might mean that these African nations will become the dominant superpowers in the world.

Nostradamus made other predictions too, like Europe facing severe winters, the Indian subcontinent experiencing a great famine, and Asia dealing with massive floods. However, these events are expected to take much longer to occur.

根据这一解读，非洲的超级大国会出现在全球变暖导致的世界剧变之后。这些变化将发生在22世纪初，也就是公元2100年左右。

诺查丹玛斯还谈到了“男人中的国王”，他的意思可能是这些非洲国家将成为世界上占主导地位的超级大国。

诺查丹玛斯还做出过其他预测，比如欧洲将面临严冬，印度次大陆将发生大饥荒，亚洲将遭遇大洪水。但这些事件可能要等上更长的时间才会发生。

Joseph Wang

I would say that China is already a superpower now.

If you look at the numbers, China is not going to be a hyperpower like the US. For one nation to have the power the US had required a unique set of circumstances that are unlikely to happen again. I think by 2050, there will be five or six superpowers depending on how you count.

我想说，中国现在已经是超级大国了。

如果你只看这些数字，你会觉得发现中国不可能成为美国那样的超级大国。要让一个国家拥有美国那样的实力，需要一系列特殊的历史背景，但已不太可能再次发生。我认为到2050年，世界上将会出现5到6个超级大国。

Richard Kenneth Eng

China is already a superpower, economically, technologically, and militarily.

It is not yet the dominant superpower. That title still goes to the USA.

But the USA is in decline, while China continues to ascend. I expect China will overtake the USA by 2050.

中国在经济、技术和军事上都已经是超级大国了。

中国现在还不是有霸主地位的超级大国。现在这个头衔仍然属于美国。

但是美国已经走下神坛，而中国则一路崛起。我猜中国会在2050年超过美国。

Chris Ervin

No. China is going to be getting close to the worst of their demographic crisis at that point. They are going to be drowning in pension and medical payments. China will be significantly less of a player in geopolitics in the specified timeframe.

不能。到那时，中国将遭遇最严重的人口危机，被养老金和医疗费用拖垮。中国在地缘政治中的重要性将大大减弱。

Zhuzi

For millenia, China had never aspired the status of the world‘s superpower, although she mostly had been wearing that crown, in reality.

China has made it clear that the government's goal is to achieve common prosperity for all her people. Nothing more, nothing less.

They have succeeded in lifting 800 million Chinese out of absolute poverty. They will continue to lift them up further to a middle income living standard.

几千年来，虽然中国在历史上的大部分时间都是第一大国，但中国对世界超级大国的地位从来都不屑一顾。

中国明确表示，中国的目标是实现全体人民的共同富裕。仅此而已。

他们成功地使8亿中国人摆脱了绝对贫困，还会继续把民众的生活水平进一步提升到中等收入水平。

Superpower status is craved by nations that are power hungry. They will use powers at their disposal, economic, technological, military and propaganda, to suppress others in order to be ahead. I call that the Tonya Harding Syndrome.

No, China doesn't belong to that exclusive club. She stands with the develo nations of the world. Her philosophy is best described by the idioms:

渴望权力的国家才会渴望超级大国的地位。他们企图利用自己掌握的经济、技术、军事和宣传等实力来压制其他国家，占据领先地位。我称之为汤娅·哈丁综合征。

但中国不属于那个排外俱乐部。中国和其他发展中国家站在一起。中国式的哲学理念可以用一句话来形容：

老吾老，以及人之老；幼吾幼，以及人之幼。

与世无争。

得道多助，失道寡助。

I know, because I am Chinese, ethnically and culturally.

老吾老，以及人之老；幼吾幼，以及人之幼。

与世无争。

得道多助，失道寡助。

我知道这一点，因为我就是中国人，从民族和文化上来说都是。

Peter Francis

Is China the world's next superpower?

China is not Japan in 1940s

China is not Soviet Union in 1950s

The old definition of superpower doesn’t work. China want to be who they are though the history - The middle kingdom without the need of expansion

中国会是下一个超级大国吗？

中国不是1940年代的日本。

中国也不是1950年代的苏联。

超级大国的原有定义已经失效了。纵观中国的历史，中国只想做自己—一个不需要扩张的中央王国。

They are lazy superpower that just doesn’t want to be vulnerable to blockade like German in World War I. they can buy African resource by money, without the need of colonialism. They don’t care about Iraq, Afghanistan or Israel…

They would not be typical superpower. If you are not China neighbor, you doesn’t care about them like what you did with the Soviet or American

他们是个慵懒自得的超级大国。他们无需殖民，只需花钱购买非洲的资源。他们也不关心伊拉克、阿富汗或以色列……

他们不会成为典型的超级大国。如果你不是中国的邻国，你绝不会像在意苏联或美国那样在意他们。

Masao Miwa

Would you bet on China as the world's next superpower?

You don’t need to bet. It is already a superpower. It is not a hegemon, but a super power it is. China’s GDP is second to the US and predictions are that before 2030, China’s GDP will surpass the US. China’s PPP GDP already exceeds the US. China’s power is economic. China is transitioning from a labor intensive, trade dominated economy to one focused on technology and rising domestic consumption. Why do you think the US is making so much fuss today about China. The US fears China’s rise.

你敢打赌中国会成为世界下一个超级大国吗？

你都不用打赌。中国已经是一个超级大国了。中国不是一方霸主，但中国确实是一个超级大国。中国的GDP仅次于美国，在2030年之前，中国的GDP可能会超过美国。中国的购买力平价GDP已经超过美国了。中国的实力源于经济。中国正在从一个劳动密集型、以贸易为主导的经济体转向一个专注于技术和国内消费不断上升的经济体转型。你觉得美国现在为什么对中国如此大惊小怪呢？美国担心的正是中国的崛起。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

How will China be a superpower in the future?

For the moment, China has six priorities:-

中国未来将如何成为超级大国？

目前，中国有六个优先发展事项：

Take their Economy to become the First Asian High Value Economy by 2035

Modernize their Military fully and capably to defend themselves and their territorial integrity by 2030

Common Prosperity - To develop and help push poor and low income people to middle class in terms of standard of living

到2035年，中国将成为亚洲第一个高价值经济体

到2030年，中国将全面实现军事现代化，有能力保卫自己和领土完整

中国将实现共同富裕，帮助贫困和低收入人群向中产阶级迈进

Global Security Initiative - To use soft power and establish a different global peace through FAIR ECONOMICS than the West has been maintaining through rigid colonialism and meddling

Ensure Food Security for it's Citizens under the worst situations including Blockades

Ensure Energy Security by focus on Supply of Non Renewables and development of Renewables

全球安全—中国将利用软实力，通过公平经济打造不同于西方通过殖民主义和干涉内政而维持的全球和平

在包括粮食禁运在内的最糟糕情况下，确保中国公民的粮食安全

以非可再生能源供应和可再生能源发展为重点，确保中国的能源安全

That's it

Nothing more Nothing less

That is called Roadmap 2050, Make in China 2025, New Army 2030, BRI, OBOR and various other names

No mention of Superpower or Hegemony

China NEVER WANTS to be a HEGEMON, nor did they ever want to be a Hegemon

They don't want any territory that they don't consider theirs historically

因此而已

以上几点被称为2050年路线图、中国制造2025、一带一路等等，

但无一提到超级大国或霸主等字眼

中国从来都不想当什么霸主

他们对历史上不属于他们的领土也毫无兴趣。

Peter Kaye

How is China becoming the next superpower? Would it be possible in one decade?

It already is, militarily AND financial, no need to wait a decade, the thing is, they are a benevolent super power, purely defensive, and will definitely never use their power to bully others like the US continuously does, China will use their super powers to help other countries to develope and build as they are doing already through the BRI. It will make the world a much happier and peaceful place.

中国要如何成为下一个超级大国？十年后有可能实现吗？

中国在军事和金融上已经是超级大国了，根本不需要再等十年。事实上，中国是一个善意的超级大国，他们一直采取防御姿态，绝对不像美国那样仗势欺人。中国希望利用自己的超级大国的实力帮助其他国家进行发展和建设，就像他们通过“一带一路”进行的那样。中国会让这个世界变成一个更快乐、更和平的地方。

Haiyan Chen

Will China become a 1st world nation by 2050?

1st world, this is a political concept, not an economic concept.

I guess the question you want to ask is whether China can become a developed country in the 2050.

In the foreseeable future, China could not be an ally of the United States. There are conflicts between ideology and interests in two countries.So,politically, we can not belong to the 1st world at all.

到2050年，中国能跻身第一世界吗？

第一世界只是一个政治概念，并不是一个经济概念。

我猜你想问的是：中国能否在2050年成为一个发达国家。

短期内中国不可能成为美国的盟友。两个国家之间存在着意识形态和利益的冲突。所以，在政治上，中国根本不可能进入第一世界。

However, if you are talking about achieving the level of developed countries economically, I think this is possible.

If China's political and economic development is protected by high speed and stability before 2050, I believe that China can reach the level of developed countries. Even now, the development level of some big cities in China may have surpassed some developed countries.

但如果你想问的是在经济上达到发达国家的水平，我认为这是有可能的。

如果在2050年之前，中国能保持高速稳定的政治经济发展，我相信中国可以达到发达国家的水平。目前，中国部分大城市的发展水平可能就已经超过一些发达国家了。

Of course, China is faced with some thorny problems and the road of development is not easy. Population problems, pollution problems, industrial technology upgrading, the threat of war and the instability of the world economy may all affect China's economic development.

We can not predict the future, but we know that a bright future will come from today's efforts and struggles.

当然了，中国也面临着一些棘手的问题，发展的道路并不是一马平川。人口问题、污染问题、工业技术升级、战争威胁和世界经济的不稳定都有可能影响中国的经济发展势头。

我们无法预测未来，但我们知道，美好的未来源于今天的努力和奋斗。

Haiyan Chen

Is China going to emerge as a superpower in the next twenty years?

中国会在未来二十年成为超级大国吗？

不会。

1.Up to now

Despite its rapid growth, China is still a develo country. China is not even a developed country, nor is it a superpower. What's more, the huge population means that China needs more resources to make itself a developed country. China has been busy out of poverty, not in global hegemony

1.目前

中国虽然发展迅猛，但目前仍是一个发展中国家。中国既不是发达国家，也不是超级大国。更重要的是，中国庞大的人口意味着中国需要消耗更多的资源，才让成为发达国家。中国一直致力于解决贫困问题，没有精力争夺全球霸主的地位。

2.In the future.

The formation of the super power is a special product of the special historical background. China does not have the opportunity of the United states. World War II led to widespread destruction or a severe blow to the world's major economies, and only the United States retained full economic strength. After the Second World War, no country could surpass the United States in military and economic, or even close to its level.

2.未来。

超级大国的形成是特殊历史背景下的特殊产物。中国不曾拥有美国拥有过的机会。第二次世界大战对世界主要经济体造成了普遍的破坏或严重的打击，只有美国保存了经济实力。第二次世界大战后，没有哪个国家能够在军事和经济上超过美国，连接近美国都很难。

America's military spending and technology ensured its military supremacy, and its military bases spread all over the world.This guarantees the military hegemony of the United states.

The US dollar is the global currency, and hundreds of American businesses control the lifeblood of the world economy. This guarantees the economic hegemony of the United states.

美国的军事开支和科技实力确保了其军事霸权，美国的军事基地遍布世界各地，也确保了美国的军事霸主地位。

美元是全球货币，数百家美国企业控制着世界经济的命脉，确保了美国的经济霸主地位。

Like military bases, The United States has many allies around the world., and the United States is the leading builder of many political order after the war. These guarantees the political hegemony of the United states.

China clearly does not have these conditions, we have to face the pressure of the United States everywhere, the United States will not be willing to watch China beyond it.

So China has no chance and no strength to become a superpower.

美国在世界各地还有很多盟友。美国是二战后许多政治秩序的主要建设者，这确保了美国的政治霸主地位。

中国显然并不具备这些条件，我们不得不处处面对美国的压力，美国也不愿坐视中国超越自己。

所以中国没有机会、也没有实力成为超级大国。