Can China reach US$25,000 per capita GDP by 2030?

到2030年，中国的人均GDP能达到25000美元吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Richard Kenneth Eng

In terms of purchasing power parity, China is almost there already: $23,382.

In terms of nominal GDP, China still has some ways to go: $13,721.

IMHO, purchasing power parity is a more meaningful economic measure.

按购买力平价计算，中国几乎已经达到了这个水平：23382美元。

按名义GDP计算，中国还有一些差距：13721美元。

恕我直言，购买力平价是一个更有意义的经济指标。

长江龙

I think China's GDP per capita in nominal US dollars will exceed US$25,000 and reach US$37,000 in 2030.

我认为，到2030年，以名义美元计算的中国人均GDP将超过2.5万美元，达到3.7万美元。

From 2000 to 2020 (a US dollar cycle), the average annual growth rate of China's real per capita GDP is 9%, and the nominal US dollar growth rate is 12% (from US$951 to US$10,500).

From 2000 to 2010 (the period when the U.S. dollar was weak), the average annual growth rate of China’s real per capita GDP was 11%, while the nominal U.S. dollar rate was 16% (from $951 to $4,500).

From 2010 to 2020 (dollar strength period) China's real per capita GDP growth rate is 7% per year, and the dollar's nominal growth rate is 8% (US$4,500 to US$10,500)

从2000年到2020年（一个美元周期），中国实际人均GDP年均增长率为9%，以名义美元计算的增长率为12%(从951美元到10500美元)。

从2000年到2010年(美元疲软时期)，中国实际人均GDP年均增长率为11%，以名义美元计算的增长率为16%(从951美元到4500美元)。

从2010年到2020年(美元强势时期)，中国实际人均GDP年均增长率为7%，以名义美元计算的增长率为8%(4500美元至10500美元)。

From 2020 to 2040 (a US dollar cycle) China's real per capita GDP annual growth rate Growth will be 7% on average and 10% in dollar terms.

From 2020 to 2030 (the period when the U.S. dollar is weak), the average annual growth rate of China’s real per capita GDP will be 9%, while the U.S. dollar’s nominal growth rate will be 14%. China's per capita GDP will grow from $10,000 to $37,000.

From 2030 to 2040 (the strong dollar period), China's real per capita GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 5%, while the dollar's nominal growth rate will be 6%. China's per capita GDP will grow from 37,000 to 66,000 US dollars.

从2020年到2040年(又一个美元周期)，中国实际人均GDP年均增长率为7%，以名义美元计算的增长率为10%。

从2020年到2030年(美元疲软时期)，中国实际人均GDP年均增长率为9%，以名义美元计算的增长率为14%。中国的人均GDP将从1万美元增长到3.7万美元。

从2030年到2040年(强势美元时期)，中国实际人均GDP年均增长率为5%，以名义美元计算的增长率为6%。中国的人均国内生产总值将从3.7万美元增长到6.6万美元。

At present, China's nominal US dollar per capita GDP will increase from US$10,000 in 2020 to US$13,000 in 2022 at an average annual growth rate of 14%.

目前，中国人均名义美元GDP将从2020年的1万美元增长到2022年的1.3万美元，年均增长率为14%。

Vedant Vispute

Experts do expect China’s GDP per capita to reach around $25000 by 2030. (Source- Statista.com)

专家预计，到2030年，中国的人均GDP将达到25000美元左右。(来源——Statista.com)

Yi Zhang

I have no idea.

If dollar hegemony collapses, simple exchange rate fluctuations can accomplish this more quickly.

我不知道。

如果美元霸权崩溃，只需汇率出现波动，便可以加快这一目标的实现。

Omar Othman

In PPP terms yes, and even earlier than that. It stood at 19–20k in 2021. In nominal terms? It depends on geopolitical fluctuations and their spillover on the exchange rates, but if things go as usual, China’s nominal GDP per capita will not reach 25k until 2035 or later.

按购买力平价计算，是的，甚至这个时间会提前。2021年，这一数字为1.9万至2万。按名义GDP来算呢？这取决于地缘政治的局势及其对汇率的溢出效应，但如果一切如常，中国的名义人均GDP要到2035年或更迟的时间才能达到2.5万美元。

J. Dashing

In 2030, I expect China’s GDP to be around $23 trillion. Their population will be around 1.433 billion. This will make their GDP per capita $16.6K and they’ll become a developed nation. With these projections, give it another 10 years.

到2030年，我预计中国的GDP总额将达到23万亿美元左右，中国人口将达到14.33亿左右。中国的人均GDP将达到16600美元，中国成为发达国家。根据这些预测，再过10年就能实现你提及的目标。

Love Yourself

This is very ambitious for China.

Certainly possible, but that would be very difficult.

China plans to reach $20,000 per capita GDP by 2035; it is on track to reach that by ~2029 and that alone makes China happy.

这对中国来说是很难实现的目标。

当然是有可能的，但很难。

中国计划到2035年实现人均GDP 2万美元的目标；中国有望在2029年实现这一目标，如果真能实现，中国就心满意足了。

On Hiatus

[I’m assuming that we are using real GDP per capita measured in 2021 dollars.]

China’s 2019 per capita GDP was under $10.3K. China would have to achieve a growth rate of 8.5%/year over 11 years for this to occur. Other than 2021, in which a post-COVID bubble may elevate the Chinese economy above this level, it is not likely to achieve this rate in any other year.

I’d guess that China’s per capita GDP in 2025 will be just under $20K current US dollars. That isn’t a huge numeric difference from your figure, but the required levels of luck and execution to achieve it are actually very substantially higher than what is likely to occur.

(假设我们使用的是2021年以美元计算的实际人均GDP。)

中国2019年的人均GDP不到1.03万美元。若要实现这一目标，中国必须在11年内都保持8.5%的年增长率。除了2021年，新冠疫情后的泡沫可能会使中国经济发展速度超过这一水平，否则其他任何一年都不太可能达到。

我猜2025年中国的人均GDP将略低于2万美元。跟你提出的数字相差不会太大，但实现这一目标所需的运气和执行水平要远超实际可能。

Will Thomas

Yes. Even if China’s economic growth slows down a bit, it can still grow from around $15,000 per capita to $25,000 per capita over ten years.

Once China reaches around $25,000 per capita income, growth will likely come harder and harder. Growth slows down as countries become richer because poor countries have many well-known ways to raise their efficiency of production, but richer countries have to invent new ways, which is harder. Also, demographic factors will help slow China’s growth in coming decades.

是的。就算中国目前的经济增长开始放缓，它还是可以在十年内从人均15000美元增长到人均25000美元。

等中国的人均收入达到2.5万美元左右时，继续增长可能会变得越来越困难。国家慢慢富裕，经济增长速度就会放缓，因为穷国有许多提高生产效率的方法，但富国只能靠发明新方法，难度更大。此外，人口因素也会拖慢中国未来几十年的经济增长速度。

David Liu

it can, if USD were still global dominant currency and GDP were still metriced by USD…

however, it is more possible that GDP will not be metriced by USD at that time…

能，如果美元仍然是全球主导货币，如果GDP仍以美元衡量的话…

但更有可能的是，等到那个时候GDP已经不用美元来衡量了…

Al Sokol

$25 000.00 in China will equal to +/- $100 000.00 in the US. I feel sorry for them.

2.5万美元在中国也就相当于美国的10万美元。我为他们感到难过。

KokHin Lim

Related

How much will China's nominal per capita GDP reach in 2025?

2022 China’s GDP is a shade below 20 trillion dollars. And U.S. GDP is a little over 25 trillion dollars. It is safe to estimate China will grow 6% per annum while the U.S. will grow at 2% over the coming 3 years. China will grow to 24 trillion while the U.S. will grow to 26.5 trillion based on U.S. dollars.

Nominal GDP really means nothing but chest thum browning points these days. PPP China is well over 50% bigger than the U.S. by 2025. So in real purchasing dollar value China’s PPP is 1.5 times the size of China. But growing roughly 3 times the speed of the U.S. economy.

到2025年，中国的名义人均GDP将达到多少？

2022年，中国GDP略低于20万亿美元，美国的GDP略高于25万亿美元。可以肯定的是，在未来3年，中国经济的增长速度大约为每年6%，而美国经济的增长速度大约为每年2%。中国将增长到24万亿美元，而美国将增长到26.5万亿美元。

如今，名义GDP真的没啥用。到2025年，中国的购买力平价将比美国高出50%以上。因此，若以实际购买美元价值计算，中国的购买力平价是美国的1.5倍，但增长速度大约是美国经济的三倍。

Nathan James

Related

What do you think about China being number 1 in GDP but number 100 in GDP per capita?What’s there to think? Everything is perfectly fine.

China is still a develo country. It’s nowhere near its peak. There is plenty more room for growth.

China has 1.4 billion people. It takes time to elevate them all into the prosperous middle class. I expect this will be achieved by mid-century.

So, again, what’s the problem?

你怎么看中国GDP全球第一，但人均GDP排名100 ？有什么好看的？一切都很好，没问题。

中国如今还是一个发展中国家，远未达到巅峰状态，还有很大的发展空间。

中国有14亿人口，让中国人全部进入富裕的中产阶级需要一定的时间。我猜本世纪中叶应该能够实现。

那么，你还有什么问题呢？

Roger Parker

Related

Is China ever going to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP?

I think it is important to understand the paradigm of leading nations and followers. By leading, I am not suggesting they are better in some way, it is just a different strategy. Some organizations, whether corporations or nations are dynamic. They invest in new ideas, new technologies, new experiments, new institutional forms, new products, new styles and such. These organizations have lots of change, lots of failure, open mindsets and occasionally awesome successes. They are future and progress focused. Others are intrinsically conservative, waiting for ideas and technologies and institutions to be tested and proven elsewhere.

中国的人均GDP会赶超美国吗？

我认为理解领先国家及其追随者的模式是很重要的。说他们领先，我并不是说他们在某些方面就比别人好，他们代表着一种不同的策略。有些组织，不管是公司还是国家，都很有活力。他们投资于新思想、新技术、新实验、新制度、新产品、新风格等等。

这些组织会有很多变化，很多失败，他们秉持开放的心态，偶尔也会取得惊人的成功。他们着眼于未来和进步。而其他人则非常保守，等着别人验证自己的想法、技术和制度。

Over the past four or five hundred years, the dynamic leader has changed with time. Historians focus on the Netherlands as extremely dynamic up until the 18th C or so, when the dynamic leadership shifted to Great Britain followed by a shift around start of the 20th Century to America. This is of course an over-generalization, as lots of places have varying degrees of dynamism, but if you look at places with major technological, financials or economic leadership patterns do emerge. The financial revolutions of the Dutch, the Industrial Revolution of the British, the moon landing and Silicon Valley phenomenon in the US.

在过去的四五百年里，领先国家也发生了巨大的改变。荷兰在18世纪之前非常活跃，后来领导权转移到了英国，又在20世纪初转移到了美国。当然，我说的非常简单，很多地方都有不同程度的活力，但你要看重大科技、金融或经济领导模式出现的地方，比如荷兰有金融革命、英国有工业革命、而美国有登月和硅谷。

Once a new institution or product or technology is created, tested and proven, other places which are less dynamic can copy it. This creates a process where catch up is easier than the discovery itself. You then see convergence, where non leading economies adopt the technologies and sciences of the leaders. Being a follower is efficient and less risky.

一旦一种新的制度、产品或技术被创造出来，经过测试，得到证明，其他不那么活跃的地方就可以进行复制，而追赶比发现本身更为简单易行。然后你会发现大家越来越趋同，非领先经济体也采用了领先经济体的技术和科学。做一个追随者效率更高，风险更小

As China approaches the frontier of technology and prosperity, it will need to shift from a catch up strategy to a dynamic leadership strategy. This is a completely different skill, and is one which historically seems to be associated with cultures with a strong emphasis on individuality, change, risk taking, novelty, future orientation and progress. This conversion isn't impossible, but on the other hand, there is nothing in being a good follower or adopter of ideas created elsewhere that prepares one to be a good leader.

随着中国走向科技和繁荣的前沿，它需要从追赶的战略转向动态领导的战略。这是一种完全不同的技能，而且从历史上看，似乎更与强调个性、变化、冒险、新奇、以未来为导向和进步的文化有关。另一方面，成为一个好的追随者或采纳别人创造的想法，并不能让一个人成为一个好的领导者。

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