In the 80's, everyone was predicting that Japan was going to 'overtake' us (America).  It turned out to not be true.  Now everyone seems to agree that China will 'overtake' us.  Couldn't they be wrong again?

80年代所有人都说日本会超越美国，结果未能成真。现在所有人都认为中国会超越美国，他们会不会又错了？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Carole Lopez

Hey China is not like japan. China only needs to have 25% of America’s Per capita GDP to surpass it while japan’s population is only 1/3 of America and they would need 3 times of America’s per capita income to surpass it. It simply doesn’t have the mass.

Moreover even if japan surpassed the US in GDP, it had little political influence and is largely a vassal state of the US. It lacked military power. It needed American protection against the Soviets and now the Chinese.

嘿，中国跟日本可不太一样。中国只需要达到美国人均GDP的25%就可以超过美国，而日本的人口只有美国的1/3，他们需要达到美国人均GDP的3倍才能超过美国。日本没有数量优势。

此外，就算日本的GDP超过了美国，它的政治影响力也很小，日本基本上就是美国的附属国，没有军事力量，需要美国的保护来对抗历史上的苏联和现在的中国。

And with such huge population, China has the domestic market to develop itself while japan was largely export dependent and needed america’s Market. That’s why when the US pressed it in the plaza accords to appreciate the yen, It agreed without a fight. It imposed export restrictions upon American request.

中国拥有庞大的人口，有自己的国内市场来发展，而日本主要依赖出口，需要美国市场。这就是为什么当美国通过《广场协议》中敦促日本让日元升值时，日本毫不反抗地同意了，还应美国的要求实施了出口限制。

And The Chinese market already exceeds the US in some areas. China’s automobile demand in2017 was 28 million vs 17 million in the US. It accounted for 30% of the worlds demand for smartphones versus 15% in US. Qualcomm derives over half its revenue in China. Only amateurs like those in Trump’ s cabinet will think that tariffs will thwart Chinese rise in advanced manufacturing. It doesn’t need America’s market to grow while it is increasingly a crucial market for America’s farmers, semiconductor and airplane and high tech industries. Huawei became the third largest smartphone brand while virtually has no presence in the US.

在某些领域，中国市场已经超过美国了。中国市场的汽车需求为2800万辆，而美国为1700万辆。中国市场的智能手机需求占全球总需求的30%，而美国仅为15%。美国高通有一半以上的营收收入来自中国。只有特朗普内阁里那些不懂装懂的人才会认为，关税能阻断中国在先进制造业的崛起之势。中国不需要美国的市场来实现增长，因为中国已经逐步成为美国农民、半导体、飞机和高科技行业的重要市场。华为如今已经是全球第三大智能手机品牌，但几乎没有在美国开展业务。

And in some of the answers there are still westerners making this old argument of De cracy versus dicta rship and that China will become eventually unstable and stuff. If you have lived in China, though having no western style national elections, they now have the most competent and efficient government in the world. Despite corruption, it is not tilted toward any interest group. This is a huge structural advantage that has accounted for its rise.

在有些回复中，还能看到有些西方人提出皿 煮的过时观点，认为他们国家可能会出现动荡等问题。如果你在中国生活过就会知道，虽然没有西方式的全国选举，但他们现在拥有世界上最有能力、最有效率的政府。尽管存在腐败，但它不会向任何利益集团倾斜。这是一个巨大的结构性优势，促成了中国的崛起。

Sheldon Fish

The difference is that Japan doesnt lie like controlled China

China lies about its real figures.Now they are refusing to report on unemplyment

China has negative growth .It lies about having 6 percent GDP growth . This is impossible with crashing real estate prices,bancrupcies Evergrande and Spring Garden, youth unemployment at 20.5%

Salaries halved floods,Covid.

两者的区别在于，日本不会像中国那样撒谎

他们会谎报经济数据，现在又拒绝公布失业情况。

经济出现了负增长，却谎称GDP增长了6%。这个数字不可能是真的，因为房地产价格暴跌，恒大破产，青年失业率高达20.5%

新冠疫情，工资减半。

长江龙

If you're talking about nominal GDP, it's only a few years soon.

The data below are all nominal growth rates in USD and GDP.

如果你说的是名义GDP，只需要几年时间。

以下数据均为以美元和GDP计算的名义增长率。

From 2000 to 2020 (a dollar cycle), China's average annual growth rate is 13.4%. China's average annual growth rate in the first ten years was 17.4%, and China's average annual growth rate in the next ten years was 9.4%.

2020-2040 is a dollar cycle (the dollar is weak first and then strong). The average annual growth rate in the United States is 3%. China has grown at an average annual rate of 10% over this period. China's average annual growth rate in the first ten years was 14%, and China's average annual growth rate in the next ten years was 6%.

2000—2020年(一个美元周期)，中国的年均增长率为13.4%。前十年中国的年均增长率为17.4%，后十年为9.4%。

2020-2040年是又一个美元周期(美元先弱后强)。美国的年均增长率是3%。而在此期间，中国的年均增长率为10%，前十年的年均增长率为14%，后十年的年均增长率为6%。

In 2025, the GDP of the United States will be 25.5 trillion U.S. dollars, and that of China will be 26.9 trillion U.S. dollars.

Regarding per capita GDP, I predict that China will surpass the European Union within 20 years and the United States within 40 years.

到2025年，美国GDP将达到25.5万亿美元，而中国将达到26.9万亿美元。

关于人均GDP，我预测中国将在20年内超过欧盟，在40年内超过美国。

Haotian Ye

American did a great job in 80’s to put a stop to Japan’s growth and Japanese willingly become American’s dog to help uphold “Asia-Pasific stability”.

In a way one may say this is war, US won against Japan, and put a stop to it's growth. But if you think Chinese are going to give up just like Japan in 80’s. You are right, and everyone should think like you :)

美国在80年代非常出色地阻止了日本的发展，日本自愿成为美国的走狗，帮助美国维护“亚太稳定”。

在某种程度上，人们可能会说那是一场战争，结局是美国战胜了日本，并阻碍了日本的发展。但如果你认为中国人会像80年代的日本那样举手投降，你是对的，每个人都应该像你这么想。

“Everyone seems to agree that China will ‘overtake’ us” That's just one of the millions of excuses US will use to stop China’s development.

So US can and will, actually has been attempting to slow down China’s growth for decades. Same as what it has been doing to every other countries. A country can only develop if it let US control it.

“每个人似乎都同意中国会‘超越’美国”，这只是美国用来阻止中国发展的无数借口之一。

因此，几十年来美国一直在试图拖慢中国的增长速度，就像它对其他国家做过的那样。只有被美国掌控，这个国家才能有机会发展。

Brent Harrelson

Yes, “everyone” could be wrong.

Chinese economic growth has been phenomenal because they started from a very low base. Think of it like this….

If you make $1000/year and your economy grows at 10% then your economy grew by $100.

If you make $10,000/year and your economy grows by only 2% then your economy grew by $200.

(10% growth is higher than 2% growth but $200 is still more than $100.)

是的，“所有人”可能都错了。

中国的经济增长速度令人惊叹，但只是因为他们的起点太低了。你可以这样想....

如果你每年赚1千美元，经济增长率为10%，那么你的经济就增长了100美元。

如果你每年赚1万美元，经济增长率为2%，但你的经济依然增长了200美元。

(10%的增长率高于2%的增长率，但200美元的增长值还是高过100美元。)

China had high growth percentage, but it was a percentage of a much smaller economy. America’s growth percentage was lower, but it was a percentage of a much larger economy, thus more real dollars.

As the Chinese economy grows it becomes harder for them to maintain such a high percentage of growth because it’s always harder to earn larger sums of money than smaller ones.

中国的经济增长率确实很高，但经济规模要小得多。美国的增长率比较低，但这个增长率是以远超中国的经济规模为基础的，因此实际增加值更高。

随着中国经济的增长，他们很难继续保持如此之高的增长率，因为赚更多钱的难度肯定更大。

An example - for the U.S. economy to grow at 10% annually (like China was) we would need to earn an extra 2.3 trillion PER YEAR. (That’s more than Italy or Canada make in a year.)

Just because China has been growing so far does not guarantee that it always will. Japan was growing rapidly, until it wasn’t.

举个例子，如果美国经济要想以每年10%的速度增长(就像中国那样)，每年需要额外赚取2.3万亿美元(这比意大利或加拿大一年的总收入还要多。)

就因为中国到目前为止一直在增长，并不能保证它会永远增长。日本曾经也一直高速增长，但后来却停滞了。

Then there’s politics. Chinese are proud of their country, just as Americans are.

还有政治问题。中国人和美国人一样，都为自己的国家感到自豪。

Basically, there are a lot of ways that Chinese growth could stall, thus they wouldn’t overtake the U.S. On the other hand, there’s no guarantee that the U.S. will keep growing and maybe the Chinese WILL overtake us. There’s no way to know. But, to answer the question - yes, “everyone” COULD be wrong. We just have to wait and see.

中国有可能停止增长，因此可能不会超过美国。但另一方面，美国也不一定能保持增长，也许中国会超过我们。天机难勘。但是，对这个问题我的回答是—是的，“所有人”可能都错了。我们只能拭目以待了。

Kenneth Kasper

Forget “could”, try “will”.

China is doomed.

China is scheduled to lose half its population by the end of the century, and start facing nigh unsolvable issues as soon as 2030. Expect China’s golden age to end by 2050 at the latest.

别说什么“可能”了，试试“即将”吧。

到本世纪末，中国人口将减少一半，2030年就会开始面临几乎无法解决的问题。预计中国的黄金时代最迟将在2050年结束。

Azbuk Kuzban

That is a very interesting question. I would say yes, they can be wrong again. But also they can be right this time.

这是个很有趣的问题。我会说，是的，他们可能又错了。但这一次他们也有可能说对了。

Cy Wg

In fact, China has surpassed the United States; not only economically, but technologically China has also surpassed the United States; it is not how smart the Chinese are; it is really just the United States itself;

事实上，中国已经超过美国了；不仅在经济上，在技术上也是如此；并非是因为中国人有多聪明，问题就出在美国自己身上；

Nominally, the GDP of the United States is larger than that of China; that is because of the way Americans use statistics, while the way of Chinese people's statistics is more conservative; literally, China's GDP is smaller than that of the United States. In fact, the United States has a population of 300 million, of which 270 million are in Drug addiction, American residents draw guns and shoot each other at any time, the streets are homeless, and the average life expectancy is low; the new crown pneumonia has caused millions of deaths in the United States; such a country has no qualifications to claim to be developed, and it still wants to lead the world;

名义上，美国的GDP大于中国；原因在于美国人统计数据的方式，中国的统计方法更为保守；表面上看中国的GDP低于美国，但事实上，美国有3亿人口，其中有2.7亿人有药物成瘾的问题，美国居民会随时拿枪互相射击，街头有无数流浪汉，民众平均寿命很低；新冠肺炎在美国已造成数百万人死亡；这样的国家没有资格标榜自己是个发达国家，可美国现在还妄图引领世界。

The Chinese have never recognized the United States as the world leader; it's just their wishful thinking, look at Philadelphia, the United States, with all kinds of weird behaviors of filth, homeless, drug addicts; that's the real state of the United States; and China is a healthy and simple country, full of vigor;

The United States claims to be a developed country, but the level of basic necessities of life in the United States is very low. Excuse me, your technology is very high, but you cannot use it in the daily life of residents; then what is the point of this technology, just to develop weapons to bomb others?

中国人从未承认美国是世界领袖；这只是美国一厢情愿的想法，看看美国的费城，就存在各种奇葩的龌龊事，流浪汉，瘾君子，这就是美国的真实面貌；而中国是一个健康质朴、充满活力的国家。

美国自称是发达国家，但美国的基本日用品都非常普通。请问一下，你们有那么厉害的技术，但居民在日常生活中却享用不到，那么你们拥有这种技术的意义是什么，难道就为了研制炸弹？