如果1947年印度没有被分治，会发生什么呢

What would have happened in India if it hadn't been partitioned in 1947?

如果1947年印度没有被分治，会发生什么呢？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Kent Knight

This might be a controversial answer, but here is what the alternative history would have been like:

这也许会是一个有争议的答案，但历史的另一种走向可能会是：

Political issues:

政治上：

The Indian National Congress would have been the strongest party post-British Raj because it played a central role in the independence movement. This party would have won most of the elections for a couple of decades.

There would have been an All India Muslim league, which would have been the second largest national party. It would have been very successful in areas like Bengal, Hyderabad, all the states of Pakistan, Kashmir, etc.

印度国民大会党本应是英国统治后最强大的政党，因为它在印度独立运动中发挥了核心作用。国大党本可以在未来几十年的选举中一路绿灯畅通无阻。

可能还会有一个全印度MSL联盟，也许会成为印度第二大民族党，在孟加拉、海得拉巴、巴基斯坦所有邦、克什米尔等地区会非常成功。

There is a good possibility that the BJP would have emerged at a later stage, but would have been a weaker party. It is because with the presence of the Muslim League, both INC and BJP would have been perceived as Hindu parties.

Imagine all the regional parties that would have come up. There would have been one each for Sinhalese, Gorkhas, Balochis, Pashtuns, Bhutanese, Bengalis, Tamils, Telugus, etc.

人民党很有可能不会那么早出现，而且实力较弱。因为MSL联盟的存在，印度人民党会被视为印度教政党。

想象一下地区性政党都会纷纷涌现。僧伽罗人、廓尔喀人、俾路支人、普什图人、不丹人、孟加拉人、泰米尔人、泰卢格人等都会有各自的政党。

South Asian Union - a failed state?

南亚联盟—一个失败的国家？

All this means that the very notion of de ocracy wouldn't have made any sense at all. This hypothetical country would have got caught in the coalition politics and would have lost its way.

The main reason why Indian de ocracy works is because regional parties are limited only to a couple of states and every state (except Tamil Nadu) has a national party in the ruling or the opposition.

这一切都意味着皿煮的概念根本就没有任何意义。这个假想的国家可能会陷入联合政治，迷失方向。

印度皿煮之所以有效的主要原因是，地方政党只在几个邦内活动，每个邦(泰米尔纳德邦除外)都有一个全国性的执政党或反对党。

Also, the Muslim voters in India are very evenly spread out in all constituencies, along the length and the breadth of the country which rules out the possibility of a national party that caters to Muslims in specific (like the All India Muslim League). This helped the Indian Muslims join the mainstream politics through Indian national congress, etc. and lead to their active participation in the Indian de ocracy. Now, in the hypothetical SAU this would not have been possible and on the contrary.

此外，印度的MSL选民在全国各个选区的分布非常均匀，所以排除了一个专门迎合msl的国家政党的可能性。可以通过国大党等方式加入主流政治，并积极参与印度的皿煮进程。但在题目的假设前提下，这是不可能的。

You should also consider that most of India's neighbors are extremely unstable and permanently stuck in crises. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Myanmar were all politically unstable since they became independent.

另外，印度的大多数邻国都非常不稳定，长期危机四伏。巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、阿富汗、缅甸自独立以来都处于政治不稳定的状态。

Personal opinions:

个人意见：

We would have still been able to build a strong, successful liberal, de ocracy- but that is my personal opinion. The Sinhalese part of Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, United Bengal would have made excellent states in the new Indian republic because all of them have a strong unique linguistic basis to be independent states in India.

我们还是能够建立一个强大、成功的自由皿煮国家—但这只是我个人的观点。斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、不丹和孟加拉的僧伽罗地区本可以成为新印度共和国的优秀邦，因为它们都有强大的独特语言基础，可以成为印度的独立邦。

Meghan Holland

We could've visited Haṛappa and Mohenjodaro. They could've visited Delhi and Agra. We could've sailed in Indus they in Brahmaputra.

India would've been larger from east to west (from Baluchistan to Tripura) than north to south (Kashmir to kanyakumari).

No wagha border ceremonies. No 16 December celebrations (1971 Indo Pak war).

我们可能都能去参观哈拉帕和摩亨佐·达罗了。他们可能也可以去德里和阿格拉了。我们可以在印度河航行，他们也可以在雅鲁藏布江航行。

印度从东到西（从俾路支省到特里普拉）的跨度会比从北到南（克什米尔到坎亚库马里）更大。

不会有瓦迦边境仪式，也不会有12月16日的庆祝活动(1971年印巴战争)。

No movies like Border, no books like Train to Pakistan, no shayaris like Muhajirnama (by Munawwar Rana; a great peice and should be read).

No mumbai and similar attacks.

No need of Border security force, coast guards.

Maybe no nuclear power in Indian subcontinent.

We would've grieved more for Peshawar school attacks and they for naxal attacks.

不会有《边境》这样的电影，不会有《前往巴基斯坦的火车》这样的书，也不会有《穆纳瓦尔·拉纳》这样的佳作，值得拜读)。

不会有孟买骚乱之类的袭击。

不需要边境安全部队和海岸警卫队。

也许印度次大陆也不需要核武器。

我们会更为白沙瓦学校遇袭感到痛心，他们也会为纳萨尔的袭击而哀痛。

Amit K Arora

India would not have been a stable country. The alternative to partition was ‘grou of provinces’ on communal lines. innah wanted that within a Muslim group of provinces, and a Hindu group of provinces within a united India, innah wanted 4 tiers of government - lowest level being local bodies (Municipal Councils/Corporations and Panchayats), a government at the level of every province/state, goverment at the level of group of Muslim majority provinces and the group of Hindu majority provinces, and at the top a weak federal/central government with very few powers (only external defence, foreign affairs, currency and communications) and totally dependent on Muslim group and Hindu group of provinces for funding with no tax levying powers of its own. Basically, innah was asking for a bigger Pakistan within a weak India.

如果没有被分治，印度现在不可能是一个稳定的国家。分治的替代方案是在公共线上“划分省份”。真纳希望统一印度，分出MSL省份和印度教省份，真纳希望把政府分为4个层级，最低一层是地方机关(市政委员会和村务委员会)，在每个邦/州设立政府、在MSL占多数的省份和印度教占多数的省份设立政府，最高层级的政府是联邦/中央政府，不掌握太多实权(只在国防、外交事务、货币和通信领域拥有权力)，完全依赖MSL邦和印度教邦提供财政支持，没有自己的征税权力。从根本上说，真纳希望在弱小的印度内部打造一个更大的巴基斯坦。

The question of Princely States. Congress and Muslim League had different ideologies on princely states. Muslim League favoured autonomy to Princely states. This could have balkanised India.

王公国的问题。国大党和MSL联盟对王公国有着不同的意识形态。联盟支持王公国自治。这可能也会让印度分裂。

Apogee the Mleccha

Positive side:-

积极的一面：

There won't be any Kashmir issue, as we know it.

这样就不会产生克什米尔问题了。

No Bangladesh Genocide either

也不会发生孟加拉国的种族灭绝。

India is the biggest country in terms of population, putting China behind. (Not sure whether that can be considered a positive, but a large population can lead to a certain advantage).

就人口而言，印度将是全球人口规模最大的国家，把中国甩在身后。(不确定这算不算是积极因素，但庞大的人口可以带来一定的优势)。

Probably has the largest armed forces in the world.

More importantly, there won't be any Taliban, Cold War would have looked different in the late 80s, since U.S. and Pakistan won't be allies. As, in real life, the U.S. took the help of Pakistan to do something about the Soviet presence in Afghanistan, for which Pakistan used its ISI to do stuff like arming and training the Mujahideen rebels. In the early 90s, some of those rebels eventually formed the Taliban that we know today.

可能拥有世界上最大的武装力量。

更重要的是，世界上就不会出现塔利班了，80年代末的冷战也会有所不同，因为美国和巴基斯坦就不可能结为盟友了。现实是美国在巴基斯坦的帮助下，对苏联在阿富汗的驻军采取了行动，巴基斯坦利用其三军情报局也采取了一些行动，比如武装和训练圣战者叛军。在90年代早期，部分叛军演变成了今天被世人所知的塔利班。

There won’t be any Al-Qaeda too, since they also trace their origins from these Mujahideen folks, Osama Bin Laden himself was a Mujahideen rebel, despite being an Arab.

基地组织也就不会存在，因为他们也源于这些圣战者，奥萨马·本·拉登本人虽然是阿拉伯人，但也是圣战者叛军。

Then probably there won't be any 9/11.

That also means no War on Terror (at least it won’t be the same as we know it).

No ISIS - since they also trace their origins from those Mujahideen fighters, as their founder, Zarqawi was also an Arab Mujahideen, before allying himself with Al-Qaeda, and later becoming the founder of what eventually becomes the Islamic State/Daesh.

No other terror attacks in India like the 1992 Bombay blasts and 26/11.

那么911事件可能也就不会发生了。

这也意味着不会发生反恐战争。

不会有ysl国组织—因为该组织的起源也可以追溯到那批圣战者，作为圣战游击队的创始人，扎卡维在和基地组织结盟之前也是一名阿拉伯圣战者，最终变成ysl国的创始人。

印度没有发生过像1992年孟买爆炸和26/11那样的恐怖袭击。

No violence against innocent Kashmiri folks by Indian Army

No Balochistan issue (probably).

Indians who we know had left Pakistan side before partition, would have remained in their hometown and villages. So, no largest population exchange in history - that never happened in this timeline.

印度军队不会对无辜的克什米尔人施加暴力。

不会有俾路支省的问题(可能)。

那些在分治前离开巴基斯坦的印度人，本可以留在家乡的。历史上从未发生过如此大规模的人口交换。

There won't be any Khalistan issue, since Sikhs are minorities in Punjab, hence is no place for Sikh extremism to thrive. Or at least it would look different than what it actually turned out to be.

Lahore is still the capital of Punjab. Probably there isn’t any need for Chandigarh.

No Islamabad too.

All the money spent on war and defense could be spent for other relevant purposes.

不会发生卡利斯坦问题，因为锡克教徒在旁遮普邦是少数民族，因此锡克教极端主义没有发展的空间，至少会跟现在不一样。

拉合尔依旧会是旁遮普的首府。也许昌迪加尔也就不那么重要了。

ysl堡也就不复存在了。

为战争和国防花费的资金都可以用于其他用途。

Negative side:-

消极的一面：

This is tough to guess, as it depends on various factors.

My favourite books like Midnight's Children by Salman Rushdie, which is based on partition and further Indian Pakistan struggles won't exst.

Movies like Border, Gadar, Bhajaragi Bhaijaan or countless other movies on Partition or India-Pakistan conflict also won't be a thing.

很难猜测，取决于各种因素。

我最喜欢的书是萨尔曼·拉什迪的《午夜的孩子》，讲述的就是分治和印巴斗争，也就不会面世了。

像《边境》、《边关风暴》、《Bhajaragi Bhaijaan》等无数反映分治和印巴冲突的电影也不会上映了。

Not sure about India’s role in Cold War in this timeline.

There will be communal riots, time and again, that still happen in both India and Pakistan today. But can't predict the extent of it. Hope both central and state governments in this timeline would have taken necessary actions to prevent religious extremism.

If they are incompetent enough there will be some large-scale conflicts, that would probably culminate in a civil war.

印度在冷战中扮演的角色不好确定。

集体骚乱会经常爆发，今天在印度和巴基斯坦境内都依然会发生。但无法预测严重程度。希望中央政府和邦政府采取必要行动，杜绝宗教极端主义。

如果他们实在无能，那么会爆发一些大规模冲突，可能会导致内战。

The descendants of Partition refugees who were born after partition wouldn’t even exst, since partition itself never happened, so their parents never met, this also includes several prominent people in India and Pakistan, that we know today (or somehow even in this timeline circumstances had to lead to their meeting).

因为分治没有发生，所以也就没有出生于分治后的难民后代，因为他们的父母从没见过面，其中就可能包括我们熟知的印度和巴基斯坦的几位杰出人物。

Many Maharajas at the time hoped to remain autonomous if independence ever happened, they were pretty close with Congress, ho for that future. But then WW2 happened - after that British simply wanted to leave India. Then Partition happened - Indian leaders can’t risk another partition, so automatically, they assumed had to bid goodbye to these princely states, as these autonomous entities would be a threat to a united India, on top of that, Nehru and many other Congress leaders weren’t a huge fan of those Maharajas, I wonder what excuse they would have, in this timeline, to make these rajas give up their kingdom, it’s pretty confusing to even imagine, or I’m just overthinking it.

当时，许多王公与国会关系密切，希望在独立后保持自治。但二战爆发了—英国人只想离开印度，于是发生了分治—印度领导人不敢再次面对二次分治的风险，所以他们认为必须结束众多王公国并存的局面，因为这些自治体会对统一的印度造成威胁，最重要的是尼赫鲁和许多其他国大党领导人不是王公贵族们的狂热粉丝。

The Chinese threat is still inevitable in this timeline, I’m not sure how this undivided India is going to handle this.

Indo-China War of 1962 and the eventual dispute of Aksai Chin would also be inevitable.

中国的威胁依然无可避免，我不确定被分治的印度要如何处理这个问题。

1962年中印战争和阿克塞钦争端也无可避免。