Is India heading towards a middle income trap?

印度正在陷入中等收入陷阱吗?

I read a comment on a post here saying that India is at risk of running into "middle-income trap". Unfortunately, I couldn't find the post or comment to ask them more about it.

我看到一篇文章的评论，说印度有陷入“中等收入陷阱”的风险。不幸的是，我找不到文章或评论，不然可以问他们更多的问题。

There seems to be indicators pointing both ways. On one hand, we have a rapidly ballooning consumer culture with a young population with discretionary income, and with EMIs for various products which helps people to buy stuff they desire. India is considered an emerging market by many corporations. We have a huge population which acts as both a consumer and a labor force. All good signs of a strong economy and potential to become a more developed or industrialized country.

各种迹象似乎都指向了这两个方向。一方面，我们的消费文化迅速膨胀，年轻人有可自由支配的收入，各种产品的EMIs帮助人们选购他们想要的东西。印度被许多公司视为新兴市场。我们有庞大的人口，既是消费者又是劳动力。所有这些迹象都表明，印度经济强劲，有潜力成为一个更发达或工业化的国家。

On the other hand, many manufacturing industries which were anticipated to move to India after leaving China instead seem to be setting up in other South East Asian countries instead. There is still brain drain with top talent leaving for greener pastures, climate change is alleged to cause massive disruptions in the near future, and only a few tier-1 cities bearing the brunt of a population migrating into urban areas. From what I have read, having an innovative and diverse industrial economy is necessary to avoid the middle-income trap. We have great talent in this country but due to various factors like brain drain, no funding and low ease of doing business, innovation is not growing at an optimal pace.

另一方面，许多原本预计将在离开中国后转移到印度的制造业，似乎却在其他东南亚国家建立了基地。随着顶尖人才跳槽，人才外流依然存在，据称气候变化将在不久的将来造成大规模的破坏，只有少数一线城市首当其冲，承受着人口向城市地区迁移的冲击。据我所知，创新和多元化的工业经济是避免中等收入陷阱的必要条件。我们国家有很多优秀的人才，但由于人才流失、缺乏资金和经商难等各种因素，创新没有以最佳速度增长。

I am no economist and this is simply what I have gleaned from what I have read. So, what do you guys think of this?

我不是经济学家，这只是我从阅读中收集到的东西。对此你们有什么看法?

以下是美国reddit网友的评论：

Most of our people are poor or the poorest you will ever find ,visit some of our villages if you are in a metro or a city you have no idea how poor our people are. Please don’t read some stupid posts on social media or mainstream media .everyone is chest thum in media it’s all fluff there..

我们大多数人都很穷，或者是你能找到的最穷的人，如果你在大都市或城市里，去看看我们的一些村庄，你根本不知道我们的人民有多穷。请不要在社交媒体或主流媒体上读一些没有价值的帖子，每个人都在媒体上拍胸脯，说的都是废话。

kingsnowsand

The algorithms in social media makes it impossible to. It's designed to curate content for you and results in echo chambers to show you the world as you want.

社交媒体的算法让这一切变得不可能。它旨在为你策划内容，向你展示你想要的世界。

VidShala

Let us first reach middle income country status then we can worry about middle income trap lol. As of now we are still a low middle income country bunched with the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya etc.

让我们先达到中等收入国家的地位，然后再担心中等收入陷阱，哈哈。到目前为止，我们仍然是一个中低收入国家，与巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、肯尼亚等国家一样。

BigDigDigBig23

Came here to say exactly this. Some of our states are also on par with Sub Saharan and war ravaged African countries

我也想这样说的。我们一些邦也与撒哈拉以南和饱受战争蹂躏的非洲国家不相上下

Secure-Series-8900

Middle income trap..bruh we are a low income country and parts of UP and Bihar are Sub-Saharan Africa

中等收入陷阱，我们是一个低收入国家，北方邦和比哈尔邦的部分地区相当于撒哈拉以南非洲

superaggy

Let’s first become a middle income country. I know people who work for 12-14 hours a day 6 days a week to get 18k per month.

让我们先成为一个中等收入国家吧。我认识一些人，他们每天工作12-14小时，每周工作6天，每月收入1.8万卢比

karborised

We’re still a poor nation per capita.

按人均计算，我们仍然是一个贫穷的国家。

Southern_Jellyfish67

The archaic income tax rates need to be replaced by something far more contemporary in order to avoid the situation of a middle income trap and stimulate the economy. In the era of GST and other indirect taxes, this just seems like an added headache.

为了避免出现中等收入陷阱并刺激经济，陈旧的所得税率需要被更现代的税率所取代。在商品及服务税和其他间接税的时代，这似乎是一个令人头疼的问题。

doolpicate

Income taxes are like heroin for the government. It's easy money and hits just the employed middle class. Easy to squeeze.

所得税对政府来说就像海洛因。这是一笔容易赚到的钱，而且只针对有工作的中产阶级。

Odd_Explanation3246

We are not even middle income yet and this bhaisaab is worried about middle income trap

我们都还不是中等收入国家，而这位议员在担心中等收入陷阱

tokyosnow7777

Middle income trap? We have more poverty than Sub-Saharan Africa, less rank in HDI than places like Venezuela, El Salvador, Iraq, Iran, Tajikistan. With all these communal tensions, lack of investment in infrastructure, declining economy, I doubt that we'd ever even get out of the current situation we're in.

中等收入陷阱？我们比撒哈拉以南非洲更贫困，人类发展指数的排名低于委内瑞拉、萨尔瓦多、伊拉克、伊朗和塔吉克斯坦等地。由于社群关系紧张，缺乏基础设施投资，经济衰退，我怀疑我们甚至无法摆脱目前的状况。

SummerSunWinter

Wow, declining economy? India? How?

哇，经济衰退？印度？怎么衰退的？

moosemaniam

Our country should be happy if it can indeed get into the middle income trap. We are one of the poorest countries in the world.

如果我们的国家真的能进入中等收入陷阱，我们应该感到高兴。我们是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。

PuzzleheadedServe272

An avg Indian will think that s/he is living as middle class watching all those YouTube videos and short form content but they all are not middle class. If your income is between 9lpa and 30lpa then you are middle class which is only 2-5% of population.

一个普通的印度人会认为他/她是中产阶级，看那些YouTube视频和短视频就知道了，但他们其实不是中产阶级。如果你的收入在9-30 lpa之间，那么你就是中产阶级，只占人口的2-5%。

ale_93113

People need to understand why the middle income trap exsted, and why it is weakening over time

The trap happens when a develo country exports to developed countries and the flow of trade goes that way

If that is the main trade relationship, the moment the country is too expensive it gets abandoned for a cheaper one, and growth stalls

However, the more global south-south trade there is, the less countries depend on wealthy nations, and the weaker the trap is

Since the modern world doesn't have the north-south hierarchy it once had, it's likely that the middle income trap is a thing of the past, or at least it's a much easier trap to get out of

China is about to officially become a developed country by 2025 or so, Malaysia became one in 2019

India should be able to replicate its sucess if it focus on improving innovation, energy production and increasing female productivity

人们需要理解为什么中等收入陷阱会存在，以及为什么它会随着时间的推移而减弱.

当一个发展中国家向发达国家出口商品，贸易流向发达国家时，就会出现这个陷阱.

如果这是主要的贸易关系，那么当一个国家的产品过于昂贵的时候，它就会被一个更便宜的国家所取代，增长就会停滞

然而，全球南南贸易越多，国家对富裕国家的依赖就越少，陷阱就越弱

由于现代世界不像以前那样存在南北等级制，中等收入陷阱很可能已经成为过去，或者至少是一个更容易摆脱的陷阱

中国将在2025年左右正式成为发达国家，马来西亚在2019年成为了发达国家

如果印度把重点放在提高创新、能源生产和提高女性生产率上，它应该能够复制中国的成功

annadpk

Middle-income trap happens when your population grows old before making it to developed status. As long as you maintain a 1.9-2.1 fertility rate you will never fall into a middle-income trap, because you always have another shot at industrialization or another way of getting rich.

Malaysia is already a developed nation. Turkey is almost a developed country, and its fertility rate is 1.9.

Countries like Lebanon or Thailand are in the middle-income trap.

中等收入陷阱发生在人口达到发达水平之前，开始老龄化的时候。只要生育率保持在1.9-2.1，你就永远不会落入中等收入陷阱，因为你总有另一次工业化的机会或另一种致富方式。

马来西亚已经是一个发达国家。土耳其几乎是一个发达国家，其生育率为1.9。

像黎巴嫩和泰国这样的国家就陷入了中等收入陷阱。

Indifferentchildren

Middle-income trap is not about age; it is about the cost of labor. If your country is earning a large portion of its money because your labor is relatively cheap (as China was when it became the world's manufacturing hot spot), then if wages rise (becoming middle-income), companies will look for other countries where labor is cheaper, and your manufacturing sector can collapse.

To avoid this trap, your country needs to be providing something more than just cheap labor. Sort of. Cheap labor might still be the key, but higher and higher skilled kinds of labor. If your industry is dominated by "simple" factory labor, African countries will undercut on price. But if your factories provide high tech machining, on site mold making, etc., that less developed countries cannot match, then you are adding more value.

The trap keeps moving upwards: you need more of your people to be engineers who design products, not just laborers. Later, you need more of your workers to be the kinds of experts that other countries come to to solve their own problems

中等收入陷阱与年龄无关，与劳动力成本有关。如果你的国家收入的很大一部分是因为你的劳动力相对便宜(就像中国成为世界制造大国那样)，那么如果工资上涨(成为中等收入国家)，公司将寻找其他劳动力更便宜的国家，你的制造业可能会崩溃。

为了避免这个陷阱，你的国家需要提供的不仅仅是廉价劳动力。廉价劳动力可能仍然是关键，但越来越高技能的劳动力也很重要。如果你的行业由“简单”的工厂劳动力主导，非洲国家在价格上会更低。但是，如果你的工厂提供高科技机械加工，现场模具制造等，这是欠发达国家无法比拟的，那么你就增加了更多的价值。

陷阱还在继续，你需要更多的人成为设计产品的工程师，而不仅仅是劳动力。

GOWDA_BOY

What is your idea of a middle income trap. Let's say we get stuck in a Middle Income Trap and end with a economy like Turkey or Malaysia. What's so bad?? I mean of course they are not super powers. Still people lead a good life there by most metrics. That should be good enough for our people

你对中等收入陷阱的看法是什么？假设我们陷入了中等收入陷阱，最终经济发展到土耳其或马来西亚那样。这有什么不好的？我的意思是虽然他们不是超级大国，不过，从大多数指标来看，那里的人们过着不错的生活。这对我们的人民来说已经足够好了

e_karma

Malaysia is a developed country now isn't it?

马来西亚现在是一个发达国家了，不是吗？