India needs 8% growth to topple China as global driver, Barclays says

巴克莱说印度需要8%的经济增长率才能取代中国，成为全球的驱动力

MUMBAI: India’s economy needs to grow 8% a year in order to overtake China as the largest contributor to the global economy, Barclays Plc estimated, a scenario that requires much more investment, especially in traditional sectors.

Citing figures from the International Monetary Fund, Barclays said China’s contribution to global gross domestic product is estimated at about 26% in the five-year period through 2028. India’s contribution is estimated at 16%, based on a GDP growth rate of 6.1% over the period. With 8% growth, India’s contribution would inch closer to China’s, according to Barclays.

孟买：巴克莱预计，印度经济需要每年增长8%才能超过中国成为全球经济的最大贡献者，这需要印度积极扩大投资，尤其在传统行业。

巴克莱援引国际货币基金组织的数据说，预计在2028年前的五年期间内，中国对全球国内生产总值的贡献约达到26%。根据同期6.1%的GDP增长率计算，印度的贡献约为16%。巴克莱称，如果印度经济增长8%，对世界经济的贡献将接近中国。

India’s government has stepped up infrastructure spending in the past few years, allocating a record 10 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year through March 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking to boost India’s economy to $5 trillion by 2024-25, from about estimated $3.7 trillion currently.

Barclays said the government is unlikely to maintain the strong pace of investment in capital projects, which means the private sector will need to step in. That echoes comments from Goldman Sachs Group Inc in a report Monday.

过去几年，印度政府加大了基础设施的投资，在截至2024年3月的本财政年度，印度政府的基建支出达到创纪录的10万亿卢比。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪希望在2024-25年将印度经济规模从目前的约3.7万亿美元提高到5万亿美元。

巴克莱表示，政府不太可能维持资本项目投资的强劲步伐，这意味着私营部门也需要参与进来。这与高盛集团在周一一份报告中的评论相呼应。

以下是印度时报读者的评价：

Mohan • UK • 11 hours ago

The only hurdle is how much damage the the rag tag opposition can cause. Modi and hte BJP need to be in power for the next 20 years.

唯一的问题在于，这些乌合的反对派能造成多大的破坏。莫迪和人民党未来20年都必须掌权，印度才有希望。

• 17 hours ago

already the fastest hrowing indian economy in the universe . well on its way to topple even the US , let alone china

印度已经是世界上增长最快的经济体了，赶超美国都不在话下，更不用说中国了

• 18 hours ago

High value productions: space, arms, military hardware, planes and yatchs.

高价值产品：太空、武器、军事硬件、飞机和游艇。

Suvle Seeker • Haiti • 18 hours ago

Disagree. India needs 10% annual nominal GDP growth for 10 years to get to a comfortable 10 T economy by 2031-32. It will still be lagging China and USA. But if it continues beyond 2032 at 8.5 to 10% rate then by 2040-42 it will leave behind 7SA and be a tie with China. So much will have to go right.

我不同意。印度需要保持10%的名义GDP年增长率发展10年，才有望在2031- 2032年达到10万亿美元的经济规模。届时印度依然会落后于中国和美国。如果能在2032年后继续保持8.5%至10%的发展速度，那么到2040-42年，印度将和中国并列，仅次于美国。想要实现这个目标，印度需要付出极大努力。

Kali Amma • Manchester • 18 hours ago

Firstly, ensure food and energy security, secondly resolve and optimize water management, in the nation and finally incubate new AI centers to cater to the agriculture, nano and smart technology sectors, of the nation and walla the rest will come incrementally and in natural progression!

首先，确保粮食和能源安全；其次，解决和优化国家的水资源管理；最后，孵化新的人工智能中心，满足国家和城市的农业和高科技行业的需求，其余行业也就会自然发展了！

Jigyasu • Delhi • 18 hours ago

If modi is in power then everything is possible. If Rahul comes back to power everything is possible in the opposite direction.

如果莫迪掌权，那么一切皆有可能。如果拉胡尔重新掌权，朝着相反的方向也一切都有可能。

Vijay Desikan • Jigyasu • USA • 16 hours ago

Everything is possible, and everything is possible in the other direction, both mean the exact same thing. So you are saying that Modi and Rahul are the same.

一切皆有可能，反过来也完全有可能，那不是全都一样。所以你的意思是莫迪和拉胡尔是一样的。

• 19 hours ago

First bring peace in Manipur

先确保曼尼普尔邦回归和平

A Virdee • 19 hours ago

India will never topple China, which currently has 6 times the GDP of India. Forget this pipe dream and a false bravado. You have as yet ro be able to feed and educate your own population. 76 years after independence you still need to send your kids for basic education abroad!!!!!! India needs a strong stable government for the next 50 years, hopefully by that time all the infrastructure and the industrial complex is fully established.

印度永远不可能超过中国，中国目前的GDP是印度的6倍之多。忘掉这种白日梦和吹牛皮吧。你们还没有能力养活和教育自己的人口呢。独立76年后，你们还需要把孩子送到国外接受基础教育

未来50年，印度需要一个强大稳定的政府，希望到那时，基础设施和工业综合体的建设都能完成。

• A Virdee • 18 hours ago

You would have some research before coming here as china was thankful to Nehrukhan then an bar dancer papu now

你来之前应该做一些研究的，因为中国感谢尼赫鲁汗，酒吧舞者，现在还有拉胡尔。

A Virdee • Kishnan • 14 hours ago

Who was thankful to who is a bygone era. My comment is purely objective. In the 90's Indian economists were boasting on TV channels that by 2040 India will overtake USA in GDP terms! India needs total independence in electronics/semiconductor technology, materials sciences, AI, Heavy industries, biological sciences, pharmaceuticals, aviation AND the ability to be original thinkers.

谁感谢谁都是过去的事了。我的评论完全是客观的。90年代，印度经济学家就在电视频道上吹牛说到2040年，印度的GDP会超过美国了！印度需要在电子/半导体技术、材料科学、人工智能、重工业、生物科学、制药、航空和原创思维能力方面实现完全独立。

Vishwa Kumar • Unknown • 20 hours ago

Congress in Karnataka is taking back 5 years by giving freebies to appease the vote bank with taxpayers and no development. I hope BJP remains in the center forever and Congress never come to power

卡纳塔克邦的国大党通过提供免费赠品来安抚纳税人的票仓，但没能带领印度实现发展。我希望人民党永远执掌中央政府，国大党永远都别上台。

• 20 hours ago

India is on right track compared to other major economies…Modi is a real bussinessman…

和其他主要经济体相比，印度走在正轨上，莫迪是一个真正的商人。

Kaushik • Bengaluru • 20 hours ago

With Feku as PM 6.5%, with Dr. Singh as PM 8%, difference in education speaks volumes

莫迪担任总理时，印度经济增长率是6.5%，辛格担任总理时，印度经济增长率是8%，教育背景的差异就说明了这一切

Ajit Vadakayil • 20 hours ago

Google for the blogpost below ----VADAKAYIL says ISRAEL AND AMERICA HELPED IRAN SET UP ITS NUCLEAR FACILITY DURING THE RULE OF JEW MOHAMMAD REZA SHAH , BE SHOCKED – POLL<br/>Go0gle for the blogpost below ----

VADAKAYIL on Israel’s defence minister Jew Yoav Gallant brands 2.34 million Muslim Palestinians in densely populated Gaza strip as “human an*s” – there will be no electri ...

VADAKAYIL说以色列和美国在犹太人统治期间帮助伊朗建立了核设施，令人震惊。以色列国防部长犹太Yoav Gallant诋毁人口稠密的加沙地带的234万巴勒斯坦人，那里没有水电

Yoga N Mani • Kumbakonam • 20 hours ago

“Can become Global driver “ is no compliment at all, because (1) India has a heck of a lot of work to do to pull up the Economy from the deep pit of literally depending on China for its daily Bread before it becomes “Global driver” (2) it is universally acknowledged (even by US) that even granting the present slide in its Economy, China OWNS Global Bus.

成为全球驱动者根本算不上恭维，因为(1)在成为全球驱动力之前，印度还有很多工作要做，才能把印度经济从严重依赖中国的深坑中拉出来；(2)全世界(甚至美国)都承认，虽然中国经济目前出现下滑，但中国仍引领全球。

Rajeev Kumar • 20 hours ago

For that we have to kick out thugs like Pappu

为此，我们必须赶走像拉胡尔这样的暴徒

• 20 hours ago

Very difficult for modi government as he is facing inernal and external challenge.

莫迪政府面临着国内外诸多挑战，非常困难。

• Shailendra Kishore • 20 hours ago

It's internal challenge by the group inimical to the interest of India is posing threat.

那帮仇视印度国家利益的组织对印度构成了威胁。

Praveen KS • 20 hours ago

Ugly beggar Pakistani!

丑陋的巴基斯坦乞丐！

Abhijit Sharma • 20 hours ago

Chinese gdp is 5.5 times more than india and infrastructure 30 times better than india.

中国的GDP是印度的5.5倍，基础设施更是比印度好30倍。

• 20 hours ago

Get well soon

早日康复吧

Kaiser soza Junior • 21 hours ago

The BlackuglyhinduStreetShitters really do know how to create fake stories. DirtyBlackUglySmellyHinduDogs go to the railway lines twice a day to do their business and sat here talking about challenging the chinese

随处拉屎的印度人很会编造假故事，居然还有脸坐在这里大谈印度要超过中国

• 21 hours ago

India need BJP govt for another 20 years atleast to become global leader, if thise corrupted khichdi-alliance came to power then we will go back to 1980s soon.

印度需要让人民党政府至少再执政20年，才能成为全球领导者。如果其他腐败联盟上台，我们很快就会回到20世纪80年代。

Suvle Seeker • bhaskar sutradhar • Haiti • 18 hours ago

Absolutely. Both at the center and the top 15 populated states. If not, it won't happen.

没错。中央和人口最多的15个邦都要让人民党执政。否则就不可能实现。

• bhaskar sutradhar • 18 hours ago

Even if BJP comes in power for next 40 years, india can't be a supapawer. Population have to change its mind and be more disciplined, a govt can't change a country if the country itself doesn't not want to be changed. Everyone wants free water & electricity, their votes can be even bought by just 500 Rupees. Free Give away politics have rotten the foundation of this country.

就算人民党可以继续掌权40年，印度也不可能成为超级大国的。印度人必须改变自己的想法，遵守纪律。如果一个国家本身不想被改变，政府就无法改变一个国家。每个人都想要免费水电，他们的选票甚至只值500卢比。依赖免费赠品收买选票的政治已经腐蚀了这个国家的根基。

• 21 hours ago

first of all, internally , bharat will have to break the spine of Fascist Dotted Indi Alliance and china funded youtubers.

首先，印度必须打断国内法西斯印度联盟和中国资助的youtube用户的脊梁。

• 21 hours ago

Bhartiya Economy much better compared to even developed Countries like usa, many European countries who which are almost at recession stage. Not to speak about Terrorist country Pakistan Afghanistan which are Bankrupt. Extraordinary development in Bharat last 6 years, be it Infrastructure development, job creation , Education , Healthcare , Exports, Defence, Internal Security , Business, Economic development.

与美国等发达国家相比，印度经济已经好多了，许多欧洲国家几乎都处于衰退阶段了。更不用说已经破产的恐怖主义国家巴基斯坦和阿富汗了。在基础设施建设、创造就业、教育、医疗保健、出口、国防、国内安全、商业、经济发展等方面印度都取得了极大的发展。

• 21 hours ago

India is in a bright spot in world economy, but we have to grow in double digits , with political stability we can achieve that by bjp govt, but if pappu comes to power then god save india.

印度是世界经济的亮点，但我们必须以两位数的速度增长，在政治稳定的情况下，人民党政府可以实现这一目标，但如果拉胡尔上台，只能祈求上帝保佑印度了。

• Guest • 21 hours ago

I thought Modiji said we will be No. 3 by 2027. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

我记得莫迪曾经说过，到2027年印度将成为世界第三。如果我说错了，请纠正我。