What are the chances of Vietnam becoming a mini China in the future?

越南未来成为缩小版中国的可能性有多大？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Hạnh Thần Chết

Mani people seeing CN is big and the similarity between VN and CN then said VN “learned from CN” like guerrila warfare, like stopped the planed eco, replaced it with the market eco, or like, in another answer of this question, Covid fight lockdown.

The fact is VN already use guerrila warfare against CNese occupation for thousands years. Especially, in 13th century, with this type of warfare, VN has successfully kept the independence against 3 invasions from mongolian - the most powerful empire of the world back then. VN did not learn guerrila warfare from CN.

许多人认为中国很大，越南和中国之间有许多相似之处，然后就说越南一直“向中国学习”，比如游击战，比如终止计划经济，引入了市场经济，又或者比如有个回答中提到的，抗疫封锁。

事实是越南已经用游击战对抗中国几千年时间了，尤其是在13世纪，通过这种游击战，越南成功地保持了独立，抵御了当时世界上最强大的蒙古帝国的三次入侵。越南并不是跟中国学习的游击战。

The fact is VNese co unist designed in 1941 its flag, still in use, with a start of 5 branches, represent 5 groups of people in VNese society, included business group. That was 8 years far before the creation of the current CN. VN knew about market eco very early. Unfortunately, with the return of France then the US occupation, VN had to turn down market eco and replaced it by war planed eco. In 1972, Phu Tho province of VN tried to return to market eco but the war against the US was still on going then this attempt stopped. In 1980, even still in war with CN which lasted until 1989, VN started its first step to return to market eco, and many more steps. The biggest step was the announcement of the official program of Renovation in 1986, still before the normalization with CN in 1989. VN then did not learn market eco from CN.

事实上，越共在1941年就设计了自己的旗帜，沿用至今，比中国早了8年。越南很早就接触市场经济了，只是随着法国的再次入侵和随后的美国占领，越南不得不放弃市场经济，执行战争时期的计划经济。1972年，越南富寿省试图恢复市场经济，但美越之间的战争仍未结束，只能半途而废。1980年，尽管越南与中国的战争一直持续到1989年，越南又迈出了回归市场经济的第一步。在1989年与中国邦交正常化前，越南在1986年就宣布了经济改革计划。越南也不是跟中国学习的市场经济。

In 2002, VN had a small version of Covid, SARS2002. It was like a rehearsal of Covid 19. At that time, VN applied exactly what was used in Covid 19 fight, even with a much smaller scale. That was why when VN heard of unknown disaster in Wuhan, VN closed right away the border to CN and CN govt warmed VN for that. VN knew what would like such a disaster. When VN received enough vacine, VN chose to reduce the lockdown. Why do we need more lockdown if we have a cheaper way to keep people safe with vacine? Kee lockdown back then was stupid with VN. VN did not learn the lockdown from CN.

2002年，越南就爆发过一次较小的非典疫情。这场疫情就像新冠疫情的彩排。当时，虽然疫情规模小很多，但越南就已经采用了新冠疫情中的抗疫手段。这就是越南听闻武汉发生未知疫情时立即关闭了中越边境，而中国还向越南提出了警告。越南知道会发生什么样的灾难。等到越南拿到充足的疫苗时，才开始慢慢解封。如果我们有更便宜的疫苗可以保护民众的安全，为什么还需要大规模封锁呢？对越南而言，长期封锁是愚蠢的行为。越南也不是向中国学习的封锁。

VN cannot become a mini CN.

越南不会变成缩小版中国。

Khoa Nguyễn

Don't associate Vietnam with China, the management style itself is different, Vietnam follows the direction of Vietnam and has nothing to do with each other with two independent and sovereign countries.

不要把越南和中国捆绑在一起，两国的行政风格完全不同，越南走的是越南的方向，两个独立的主权国家之间没有任何关系。

俊桐 簡J T

Very much to be a mini+ China!

It's said, before the raising/settings of Tang dynasty, Prince Lee SM李世民 had some competitors, one of them was虯髯客a guy with beard. A wise guy talked to him, trying to persuade him to step down for Lee, (not necessarily asked by Lee) as the guy regarded that Lee should be the chosen One天選者. He introduced these 2 heroes to meet each other.

There were not much talking. These 2heros just being ask to watch a chese ( not as player, as audience)!

Having seen the body language of Lee during the chess game; 虯髯客was convinced. So he left. Then he stepped down, going further south to look for another chance of his career.

That's how Vietnam was set.

非常想成为缩小版的中国！

据说，在唐朝兴起之前，李世民遇到了一些对手，其中一个是虯髯客，一个留着胡子的家伙。有个聪明人想劝虯髯客给李世民让让路(不一定是李要求的)，因为他认为李世民应该是天选之子，于是他介绍这两位英雄见面。

两人之间也没有说什么话。这两个英雄一起观看了比赛(作为观众，而非选手)！

在看到李世民下棋时的肢体语言后，虯髯客心悦诚服，于是他起身离开，退出竞争，去到更南边寻找其他机会。

这就是越南出现的背景。

Goodi Shang

Vietnam is always learning from China, but Vietnam has only learned the surface and not the bone marrow.

For example, after the outbreak began, Vietnam learned from China to adopt a blockade policy, but in just a few months, Vietnam stopped the blockade. Many people believe that the Vietnamese government lacks money to stop the blockade, but in reality, the Vietnamese government is unable to implement the blockade policy. Of course, many countries are unable to implement lockdown policies and can only surrender in the face of the virus.

越南一直在向中国学习，但越南只学到了一点皮毛，没有学到精髓。

疫情爆发后，越南向中国学习封锁政策，但仅仅几个月，越南就停止了封锁。很多人认为越南政府是因为缺乏资金，所以叫停封锁，但实际上是因为越南政府没有能力实施封锁政策。当然，很多国家都无法实施封锁政策，只能在病毒面前屈服投降。

If Vietnam wants to become a small China, the Vietnamese people must learn from the ideas of the Chinese people. Confucianism had some influence on Vietnam, which also resulted in Vietnamese people having some Chinese characteristics. Therefore, Vietnam's economy has achieved a certain degree of development. In the ongoing Sino US trade war, the United States implemented a policy of decoupling from China, which gave Vietnam an opportunity for development. But recently Vietnam has experienced a trade deficit. If China and the United States reconcile, Vietnam's economy will immediately stagnate.

如果越南想成为缩小版中国，越南人民必须学习中国人民的思想。儒家思想对越南有一定的影响，这也导致越南人具备一些中国特色。因此，越南的经济取得了一定程度的发展。现在爆发的中美贸易战中，美国实施了与中国脱钩的政策，这给了越南一个发展的机会。但最近越南出现了贸易逆差。如果中美和解，越南经济将立即陷入停滞。

I suggest Vietnam learn from South Korea, search for advantageous industries, and focus on develo advantageous industries. In this way, Vietnam should be able to successfully develop its economy. China is a country with a full industrial chain, and its economic industry is fully developed. Vietnam cannot fully learn from China.

我建议越南向韩国学习，寻找并重点发展优势产业。通过这种方式，越南应该能够成功地发展经济。中国是全产业链国家，经济产业全面发展。越南没有能力完全向中国学习。

Steven Haddock

Related

What's the future of Vietnam like?

Can you say “traffic hellhole”?

Cars are extremely expensive in Vietnam. The tariff is around100%. Countries that already have traffic problems, like Mongolia, get cheap second-hand cars from South Korea and Japan, which is fun because Korean cars are left-hand drive (like Americans) and Japanese cars are right hand drive (like England).

Anyway, to build its export economy (Vietnam grows a lot of food) it agreed to lift its tariffs, which means cars will become very affordable.

And that poses a massive problem

越南的未来会是什么样子？

你可能会说“交通地狱”？

汽车在越南的售价非常昂贵。关税大约是100%。存在交通问题的国家，比如蒙古，从韩国和日本买便宜的二手车，这很有趣，因为韩国车的驾驶室在左边(像美国人)，日本车的驾驶室在右边(像英国人)。

为了打造出口经济(越南种植大量粮食)，越南同意取消关税，这意味着汽车价格会变得非常便宜。

这就会导致一个大问题。

Ho Chi Minh city (formerly Saigon) has a metropolitan population of about 10 million. However, most of the population rides scooters. Even then, the scooters clog the roads. In a very short period of time, Vietnam will have a lot more cars, and there just isn’t room for them. Other world cities, like Lima, went through the same problem - the number of cars roughly doubled in a decade and traffic slowed to a stop.

The current estimate to ease congestion is about $4 billion.

And scooters already are used for just about everything you could possibly think of in Vietnam.

胡志明市(也就是以前的西贡)拥有大约1000万人口，多数人骑摩托车。但摩托车也会造成交通堵塞。短时间内，越南将拥有更多的汽车，但越南已经没有空间容纳这些车辆了。其他世界城市，如利马，也遇到过同样的问题——汽车数量在十年内大约翻了一番，交通几乎瘫痪。

目前估计用于缓解交通拥堵的费用大约为40亿美元。

在越南，人们可以用摩托车做你能想到的几乎所有事情。

Zayne Chu

Related

Will Vietnam become a developed country before China?

越南会在中国之前成为发达国家吗?

If you want you to appear smart, the most important thing to do is not to try to predict the future.

If a person today went back to the United States in 1982, what would you see?

High double-digit inflation

8 million people out of work

A national debt of over $1 trillion

A steep recession that broke the records of the Great Depression

The mighty Soviet army was unstoppable in Afghanistan

The super-rich Japanese are buying up America

Meanwhile, your U.S. president is an actor?

What would you think? Is America "about to collapse"?

如果你想显摆自己聪明，一定不要试图预测未来。

如果让一个人回到1982年的美国，你会看到什么?

两位数的高通胀

800万人失业

国家债务超过1万亿美元

一场打破大萧条记录的严重经济衰退

强大的苏联军队在阿富汗势不可挡

日本超级富豪在美国大肆收购

另外，你们的美国总统居然还是个演员？

看到这些你会怎么想？会觉得美国“马上要崩溃”了吧？

If this person had told Americans at the time that in 10 years the Soviet Union would collapse, Japan would be in an inexorable recession and stagnation, and America would bounce back to the top in just one year under that actor president... This man would probably be committed to a mental institution.

Yes, our world is such a wonderful place. It's amazing that these things do happen.

如果这个人当时告诉美国人，苏联将于10年后瓦解，日本将陷入不可避免的衰退和停滞，而美国将在这位演员总统的领导下，在短短一年内反弹到顶峰……这个人可能会被送进精神病院。

是的，我们的世界是一个如此美妙的地方。这些事情真的就这么发生了，太神奇了。

Vietnam did not lack the conditions for economic success. Plenty of labor, good basic education, good government organization, the possibility of building a lot of good ports due to the narrow coastal country, a lot of basic manufacturing and investment transferred from China, the hard work and desire for wealth characteristic of Confucian cultural circles...

And Vietnam is not as big as China. This means that there are not as many conflicts and problems accumulated during Vietnam's rapid growth. At the same time, Vietnam has enough people to cultivate a solid manufacturing base.

越南并不缺乏经济成功的条件。越南拥有充足的劳动力，良好的基础教育，良好的政府组织，由于沿海狭长的海岸线，可以建造许多好港口，大量的基础制造业和投资从中国转移过来，儒家文化圈奉行的辛勤工作和对财富的渴望……

而且越南没有中国那么大。这意味着越南在快速发展过程中积累的冲突和问题也不会像中国那么多。与此同时，越南有足够的人口来培育一个坚实的制造业基础。

We might also want to consider that the US-led group of developed countries might invest more resources in a strategy to suppress China. This would also be beneficial to Vietnam.

The process of becoming a developed country is not linear. The higher the level of economic development, the less room there will be for exploiting opportunities, and the economic growth rate will naturally slow down. China does have a great advantage of scale and potential, but the resistance and difficulties it faces will also rise exponentially. It is far easier for the world market to accommodate a developed country with a 100 million level population than a developed country with more than a billion people.

我们或许还应该考虑到，以美国为首的发达国家集团可能会在压制中国的战略上投入更多资源。这对越南也有好处。

成为发达国家的过程不是线性的。经济发展水平越高，挖掘机会的空间就越小，经济增长速度自然就会放缓。中国确实具备很大的规模和潜力优势，但面临的阻力和困难也会成倍增加。世界市场更容易容纳一个1亿人口的发达国家，而不是一个10亿以上人口的发达国家。

So, the possibility certainly exsts. I prefer to think that getting the whole of China to the level of a developed country is much more difficult than growing a medium-sized country like Vietnam into a developed country.

所以，这种可能性是存在的。我更愿意相信，让整个中国达到发达国家的水平比让越南这样的中等国家成为发达国家要困难得多。

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