巴西会变成发达国家吗

Will Brazil ever become a developed country?

巴西会变成发达国家吗？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Alexander Ismail

No, because Brazilian people simply doesn't wish Brazil to be developed.

In developed countries, there is a sense of equality: everyone should have a car, everyone should go to university, everyone should have a chance of being rich if works hard. In Brazil, only “I" have this rights, the rest should know their place and work menial jobs for almost nothing.

不，因为巴西人民根本不希望巴西得到发展。

发达国家有一种平等的意识：每个人都应该拥有一辆车，每个人都应该上大学，如果努力工作，每个人都应该有机会变得富有。但在巴西，只有“我”拥有这种权利，其他人应该认清自己的位置，为微薄的收入奔波劳碌。

Part of criticism against Lula is well based, as his Workers' Party sometimes looked like a mafia, being in fact a bunch of thieves. But a lot of this criticism was based in the fact that it became harder to have servants, as they started to demand worker rights and better wages.

Paulo Guedes, the Economy Minister for Bolsonaro, summed it up well: “During Lula's tenure, maids were taking vacations in Disneyland. It was an absurd". Or the Education Ministry for Bolsonaro Milton Ribeiro: “University degrees should be a privilege for a strict few".

人们对卢拉的部分批评是有根据的，因为他领导的工人党看起来很黑手党，其实就是一群小偷。但很多批评都是基于这样一个事实，仆人越来越难雇佣，因为这些人开始要求劳动权利和更高的工资了。

博尔索纳罗的经济部长保罗·格德斯就总结得很好：“在卢拉任职期间，女佣们都在迪斯尼乐园度假。这太荒谬了。”或者像博索纳罗·米尔顿·里贝罗的教育部长所说的：“大学学位应该是少数人的特权。”

Kalman Bucy

Not in my lifetime unfortunately. Brazil has been actually going down in the international per capita GDP rankings and is unlikely to catch up with developed countries anytime soon since economic growth has been anemic for quite some time. Brazil is now actually poorer in per capita GDP terms than several of its Latin American peers, which is unbelievable given that Brazil is technologically more advanced and has more available natural resources and farmable land than other countries in the region.

在我有生之年是看不到了。巴西的人均GDP国际排名一直在下降，而且由于经济增长乏力已经有一段时间了，巴西不太可能在短期内赶上发达国家。巴西现在的人均GDP比几个拉美国家还要低，这令人难以置信，因为巴西在技术上明明更先进，拥有比该地区其他国家更多的可用自然资源和可耕种土地。

Lucas Jerzy Portela

Become a stable, just, with equality, de ocratic, somewhat industrialized country is a way better ambition - and this we can, as long as we maintain or de ocracy running instead of falling from one military coup to another was we do since the end of the Empire in 1889.

成为一个稳定、公正、平等、民*、初步工业化的国家才是更远大的抱负—只要我们保持皿煮的正常运转，我们可以做到这一点，不要再像1889年帝国结束以来那样，在一次又一次的军事政变中堕落。

James May

Never. Although there is some thoughts on it and they actually have a very different culture, This will never happen for simple reason:

the movement is not as strong as it is in Quebec or Cataluna

永远都不可能。虽然有一些想法，但他们的特有文化让这个目标永远无法实现，原因很简单：

巴西的运动没有魁北克或加泰罗尼亚那么强大。

Anonymous

They probably will, but not any time soon, though.

If they ever do, it won’t be because of their natural resources but because of human development. The resources are already there and they are already using them, so why isn’t Brazil developed already? Well, because of the people.

他们也许能实现，但不会太快。

如果他们真的做到了，也不会是因为他们的自然资源，而是因为巴西人进步了。资源早已存在了，巴西人也早已开始使用了，那为什么巴西一直没有得到发展呢？嗯，原因就在巴西人身上。

They can blame their politicians all they want, truth is they don’t elect themselves, they come out from the people, they are elected by the people. It’s completely normal and accepted for them (the people) to scam, they just won’t use that word, but people take shortcuts, they don’t follow rules when it’s not to their benefit, so why would their politicians?! The ruling class is a mirror of the people who elects them, so if their politicians are rotten it’s because their society is rotten. That’s what is holding them back, and the inertia on that is HUGE and really hard to overcome, society wise… either takes generations or shattering events.

巴西人随心所欲地指责政客，但政客不是毛遂自荐的，政客也都是巴西人选举出来的。对巴西人来说，欺骗是很正常的事，他们只是避而不谈这个词。

巴西人喜欢耍小聪明走捷径，如果对他们自己不利，他们就不愿遵守规则，所以政客自然也会这么做。

统治阶级是选民的一面镜子，所以如果政客腐败，那是因为他们的社会本就腐败。这就是阻碍巴西前进的原因，这种惯性是巨大的，很难克服，

从社会的角度来看，要么需要几代人的努力，要么要经历一些惊天动地的大事。

By the end of the 90’s, early 2000’s, I was hopeful, Brazil seemed to be on track… but that’s when all the greed, unwarranted pride and corruption started to soar, seemingly because people thought they made it so no need to be responsible.

The only way for Brazil to ever become a developed country is by way of societal change, develo a civic conscience, stop accepting corruption (and I don’t mean like the ones in the government, I mean among citizens like “doing favors”). Invest in education, in betterment of society by creating a proper social safety net, etc.. If they keep trying to take shortcuts, thinking they are wiser than the rest (mates, we either have seen plenty of cases like yours, or even passed through the same problems before, decades or centuries ago… you’re not fooling anyone but yourselves), they won’t get even close to becoming a developed country.

在90年代末到21世纪初，我曾经充满希望，当时的巴西似乎走上了正轨……但贪婪，傲慢和腐败突然一发不可收拾。

巴西想要成为发达国家，唯一的途径就是进行社会变革，培养公民良知，终结腐败(我并非指政府中的腐败，而是指公民中的腐败，比如“帮个忙，行个方便”)，发展教育，打造社会安全网来改善社会环境，等等。如果他们一心只想走捷径，认为自己比其他人更聪明(朋友们，我们见过太多这样的事了，甚至在几十年或几百年前就经历过同样的问题……你们只是在自欺欺人)，巴西就绝不可能成为发达国家。

I’ve seen a comparison with post-war Japan and their recovery… utter non-sense. Japan was already a developed country. Japan was an advanced industrialized country and a major power in the Pacific, and they weren’t destroyed (well, two cities were bombed, and some others invaded, sure) but their industrial capabilities remained (and even provided further aid by the Americans, after the war), they are a humble people and their culture is set in a way that they thrive to find perfection in what they do. Brazil and Brazilians are neither.

我看过与战后日本和经济复苏后的比较，完全是一派胡言。日本当初就已经是一个发达国家了。日本当初已经是一个先进的工业化国家，是太平洋地区的重要大国，他们并没有被摧毁(当然，是有两个城市被轰炸，一些城市被入侵了)，但他们的工业实力得到了保存(美国甚至还在战后提供了进一步的援助)，日本人是个谦逊的民族，他们的文化让他们在自己所做的事情中追求完美。但巴西和巴西人都不是这样的。

George Schneider

Brazil is developed in some areas and underdeveloped in many others. I spend my life comparing Brazil with other developed countries (since I lived in several) and there are several reasons that won't allow Brazil to become a first world country:

巴西的部分地区还算发达，多数地区不算发达。我长期观察比较巴西和其他发达国家(因为我在几个国家生活过)，有几个原因让巴西无法成为第一世界国家：

Money talks. In Brazil people worship money, brand and status which give leverage to the rich to maintain their influence.

The gaps in salaries are too wide, making the poor really poor in order to make the rich even richier.

Education is politically influenced.

在巴西，有钱能使鬼推磨，人们崇尚金钱、品牌和地位，这给了富人维持影响力的杠杆。

巴西人的工资差距太大了，穷人贫困潦倒，而富人越来越富。

教育也饱受政治影响。

Brazilians love to party. People forget about their troubles every year between new year and Carnival.

The politicians have too much leverage over contracts and their staff, making corruption not easily traceable.

The news outlets are owned by the politicians.

巴西人喜欢聚会。每年的新年和狂欢节期间，人们恣意欢庆，忘却一切烦恼。

政客们对合同和他们的员工有极大的影响力，腐败问题极难追查。

新闻媒体为政客们所有。

And so on…

Unfortunately I came to the conclusion that it will never happen, sorry.

等等......

很遗憾，我得出的结论是，这种美好的愿景永远不可能发生，抱歉。

Gui Zambalde

Let’s define development as a GDP per capita of USD 30,000, like that of Portugal nowadays. Now assume an average growth rate of 3%. That implies a per capita growth rate of 2%, which is a relatively conservative estimate. We have a GDP per capita of USD 15,000 as of nowadays.

30,000 = 15,000(1+0,02)^X

X = 35

我们把发达国家定义为人均GDP达到3万美元，比如葡萄牙。现在假设经济平均增长率为3%，那么人均增长率为2%，这是一个相对保守的估计。目前，我们的人均国内生产总值为1.5万美元。

30,000 = 15,000(1+0,02)^ x

X = 35

So using conservative estimates, we will achieve first world status more or less by 2050. I’d be still alive and well to see my kids in a better place.

If you are thinking in relative term, the GDP per capita of the advanced world will probably rise by a slightly lower amount. So in relative terms we will still be poor in international comparisons.

因此，保守估计，到2050年，我们有望进入第一世界。我要好好活，见证我的孩子们可以生活在比现在更加美好的巴西。

如果从相对角度考虑，发达国家的人均GDP增长率可能会略低一些。因此，相对而言，在国际对比中，我们还是比较穷。

Leonardo Ruoso

First you’ll need to settle on a developed country concept and it’s not as simple and straightforward as it might appear to naïve internet user.

Brazilian economy has been oscillating between the 5th and 10th largest economies in the world. It’s population is living mostly in cities, having moved from agriculture to manufacturing to services. Most of our population lives in areas with high or very high IDH.

Infant mortality, Life expectancy and illiteracy have reached plateaus common to developed nations.

首先，你需要明确发达国家的概念，这并没有天真烂漫的互联网用户看起来的那么简单和直接。

巴西经济一直在世界第5和第10大经济体之间波动。巴西的人口主要生活在城市，从农业转向制造业再到服务业。

巴西的婴儿死亡率、预期寿命和文盲率都达到了发达国家的普遍水平。

We have been improving steadily over the last 30 years after a few turbulent years since rede ocratization, but this time we have included a much broader universe on the improvement wave. Still far from universal, but we made very good progress.

We should expect a few bumps in they next few years but hopefully damage will be well contained and we’ll mature from the experience.

在实现皿煮化之后的30年的动荡岁月里，巴西一直在稳步发展，但如今我们想要在更多地区实现发展，但还远未普及，不过已经取得了不错的进展。

我们预计在接下来的几年里会面临一些困难，但希望能妥善控制好损失，我们一定会从经验中逐步成熟起来。

Hesus Krishna

We Brazilians are part of Latin American Spanish culture countries, and our problem is in fact problem of all us, from Argentina to Méxco. We suffer from the same problems :

Hot climate, in the majority, which is not appropriate to great development.

Spanish culture, with high degree of corruption.

Catholicism, which has proven not to bincentivate development. (even in Europe, catholic countries are substantially less developed)

我们巴西人是拉丁美洲西班牙文化圈的一部分，我们的问题就是从阿根廷到墨西哥的拉丁美洲的问题。我们都面临着同样的问题：

气候炎热，不太适合大规模发展。

西班牙文化基础造成腐败问题泛滥猖獗。

天主教已经被证实无法促进经济的发展。(即使在欧洲，天主教国家的发展程度也相对较低)

Frida Schiess

Never. It is not even a failed project. Brazil has the intention of being always a sh*thole and it was so well executed that it will always be like that.

How do you hire someone to clean toilets, cook, wash, take care of your children, take all forms of abusive treatment and do other odd jobs in exchange of food and used clothes in a developed economy? You just don’t, because no one will need to submit to that. You would either have to pay or do it yourself, and this is considered degrading in Brazil.

During the short period that Brazilian economy was improving people whined all the time that they couldn’t find a maid and if they did they would charge so much that they could not pay and that they were being forced to clean their own sh*t.

绝无可能。巴西就乐意一直摆烂，它一直摆烂得很出色，未来还将继续保持。

在一个发达的经济体中，你怎么可能雇人打扫厕所、洗衣、做饭、照顾孩子、忍受各种虐待、干其他杂务，只为换取食物和旧衣服？你雇不到的，因为没人会屈从。你要么付钱，要么自己动手，而这在巴西被视为有失体面。

在巴西经济短暂好转的那段时期，人们总是抱怨找不到女佣，即便找到女佣，也会开口索要很高的费用，高到雇主无力支付，只得被迫自己动手干活。

Denis Augusto Liossi

It will.

However, as I have only some 60–70 years of life left, I would rather see my state, São Paulo, seceding from it. Then we would achieve that condition in less than 20 years, after overcoming Brazil´s retaliation.

巴西会发展的。

但我估计也就只剩下60-70年的生命了，我宁愿看到我所在的圣保罗从巴西独立出来。在击败巴西的报复后，我们不出20年就能实现这一目标。