How has Russia, with only a small percentage of global GDP, been able to survive the onslaught of western financial sanctions?  Did the West underestimate Russia's resilience in the face of these sanctions?

俄罗斯经济在全球GDP中只占很小比例，她为何能在西方金融制裁的冲击下幸存？西方是否低估了俄罗斯的韧性？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Ivan Novoselov

The idea of “crushing Russian economy” was a projection based on numbers and assumptions. Had any Western country except the USA been subjected to this kind of sancitons, they would immediately give up.

The sanctions work. They do restrict Russian economy and force Russia to adapt. Quality of life of people is basically the same (except for select few), but businesses face a hard time. However, this hard time will eventually be over and readjustment will continue.

Russian allies and partners in the “Global South” are hel Russia to survive these sanctions. However, Russia would be able to survive in full isolation as well although it could require more radical changes in economy (USSR level)

“摧毁俄罗斯经济”的想法只是基于数字和假设的预测。如果除了美国以外的西方国家受到这种制裁，他们会立即投降。

美国的制裁是有效果的，制裁确实限制了俄罗斯的经济，迫使俄罗斯适应。人们的生活质量基本上还是一样的(除了少数人)，但企业的处境十分艰难。不过这段艰难的时期最终会过去，调整还将继续。

俄罗斯在“南半球”的盟友和伙伴正努力帮助俄罗斯挺过这些制裁。不过俄罗斯在完全孤立的情况下也能生存，只是可能需要在经济上进行更激进的变革。

Konstantin Karyaev

Related

How is Russia still surviving from sanctions?

You know, when Obama said that “Western sanctions left Russian economy in tatters”, it became a meme instantly over here, in Russia. It is just as impossibly wrong statement as it could be. Especially, when said by a President of a leading world superpower.

俄罗斯是如何从制裁中存活下来的？

当奥巴马说“西方的制裁已经让俄罗斯经济崩溃”时，这句话在俄罗斯立刻变成了一个表情包。这种说法实在错得离谱，尤其是一个世界超级大国的总统这么说，错上加错。

And this sentence still can cause a good laugh when cited at right moment.

The real impact was caused by a drastic drop in prices on primary Russian export goods, like oil and gas. It made our trade balance negative and reduced budget incomes. Due to this, our political elite decided to perform the same drastic devaluation of national currency.

Of course, it affected the living standards of majority of population. Of course, people started spending more on basic things like food and cheap clothes and a lot less on things like cars and real estate and expensive clothes.

有时候人们引用奥巴马的这句话，还会引发哄堂大笑。

真正的影响是由石油和天然气等俄罗斯主要出口商品价格的大幅下跌造成的。这打破了我们的贸易平衡，减少了预算收入。所以我们的政治精英决定对俄罗斯货币进行大幅贬值。

当然，大多数人的生活水平也会受到影响，人们在食品和廉价服装等基本生活用品上的花费更多了，而汽车、房地产和昂贵服装等方面的支出则大幅减少。

On the other hand, those sanctions given a rare reason to block the import from those Western countries. A lot of fruits and vegetables are now grown locally using cold frames instead of imports from EU or Turkey. We have gathered a record high amount of crops last year, and the meat production is also at record highs.

另一方面，这些制裁为抵制这些西方国家的进口提供了一个绝佳的理由。现在，很多水果和蔬菜都是在当地温室里种植的，不再从欧盟或土耳其进口。去年我们收获的农作物和肉类产量都创下了历史新高。

The “problem” of anti-Russian sanctions is that we were almost independent of most Western production. Food, energy, water, machinery - we do have enough produced locally. There were some sensitive sectors, like power plants and propulsion plants for ships and engines for aviation. That really affected industrial production.

Of course, very important point is that a lot of imports come from East, not the West. It includes electronics and processors, cars, machinery.

In fact, if the same sanctions were imposed some 10-15 years ago, it could be a very serious problem. But now Russian economy actually depends less on Western imports than Western (especially, EU) depends on Russian exports.

反俄制裁的“问题”在于，我们对大多数西方产品都几乎没有需求。食品、能源、水、机械——本地生产就足够了。有一些敏感行业，比如发电厂、船舶推进装置和航空发动机，确实会影响工业生产。

当然，非常重要的一点是，很多进口来自东方，而非西方，比如电子产品、处理器、汽车、机械。

事实上，如果同样的制裁在10-15年前实施，可能会是一个非常严重的问题。但现在俄罗斯经济对西方进口的依赖实际上比西方(尤其是欧盟)对俄罗斯出口的依赖要少。

Randy McDonald

Related

How long will Russia survive in sanctions?

俄罗斯在制裁下还能撑多久？

It is not a matter of whether or not Russia will survive sanctions. It surely will. It is a matter of thriving: Russia is no longer as self-sufficient as it was in the Soviet era, simply because of how its economy is deeply globalized. It will take major hits, whether we are talking about an economy that is projected to shrink by a double-digit percentage or about living standards that will worsen considerably. The more globalized sectors of the economy, the ones that depend on exchanges with the outside world, will be hit especially badly.

这不是俄罗斯能否在制裁中幸存下来的问题。俄罗斯当然可以。这是一个经济景气度的问题：俄罗斯不再像苏联时代那样自给自足，原因很简单，因为俄罗斯经济已经深度全球化。无论是预计将以两位数百分比萎缩的经济，还是生活水平大幅恶化的经济，都受到了沉重打击。经济中全球化程度更高的行业，依赖与外部世界交流的行业，都会受到特别严重的打击。

It is also important to note that Russia's economy will be hit badly. I once wrote about the reasons why Serbia was such a poor country in the context of Europe. I noted that the events of the 1990s, which saw the Serbian economy isolated by sanctions and hit by the effects of war and brain drain and badly mismanaged by a kleptocratic elite, were key. Even with strong growth in the first decade of the 21st century, Serbia was only closing on its 1990 GDP (PPP) per capita by the end of the 2010s.

同样值得注意的是，俄罗斯经济将受到沉重打击。我曾经写过一篇文章分析塞尔维亚身在欧洲却为何如此贫穷。在我看来，上世纪90年代发生的事件是关键原因，当时塞尔维亚经济因制裁而孤立，受到战争和人才流失的影响，腐败的统治精英在国家管理方面严重失责。虽然塞尔维亚在21世纪头十年经济增长强劲，但人均国内生产总值到2010年代末才重回1990年的水平。

Not only will Russia's long-term growth be hit badly by sustained sanctions, but in some ways its economy is more vulnerable. The underlying demographics of Russia are terrible, with higher rates of premature mortality than in Serbia, while the efforts of the EU to push for a green energy economy and to decouple from Russia regardless will hurt exports. How quickly can Russia recover from all this? Russia will survive, certainly, as Serbia did, but it will be forever changed for the worse.

持续的制裁不仅会严重打击俄罗斯的长期增长，而且在某些方面，俄罗斯的经济也会变得更加脆弱。俄罗斯的人口结构非常糟糕，早夭死亡率高于塞尔维亚，而欧盟推动绿色能源经济、与俄罗斯脱钩的努力也会伤害俄罗斯的出口经济。俄罗斯能多快从这一切中恢复过来？俄罗斯当然会像塞尔维亚一样幸存下来，但它只会变得更糟。

Philip Marks

Russia is trying to convince us that the sanctions are not working. Then there’s reality.

Russia's finance ministry released numbers for January 2023. January was literally the worst month in Russian history since the Ministry began publishing reports in 1998.

Oil and gas revenue are down 46% compared to pre-war January 2022 due to lower crude oil prices and reduced volumes of natural gas exports. Other revenue was down 28% mainly due to lesser income taxes (-137%, [sic – refunds exceed payments]) and VAT taxes (-44%). These suggest the internal economy is struggling. Russia's deficit grew to $24 Billion for the month as revenues fell and war spending increased. Overall budget revenues were down 35% while spending was almost 60% higher.

A price cap on refined oil products came into effect February 5. This will further reduce Russia's income by $80 million per day. Including the self-imposed production cuts Russia's income will decrease a combined $110 million per day or $3.3 Bn per month. And likely more.

俄罗斯试图说服我们，美国的制裁不起作用，我们来看看现实情况。

俄罗斯财政部公布了2023年1月的数据。自1998年俄罗斯财政部发布报告以来，今年1月是俄罗斯历史上最糟糕的一个月。

由于原油价格下跌和天然气出口量减少，与2022年1月俄乌战争爆发前相比，油气收入下降了46%，其他收入下降了28%，主要是由于所得税减少了137%，[原文-退款超过付款]，增值税也减少了44%。这表明俄罗斯国内经济陷入困顿。由于收入下降和战争开支增加，俄罗斯当月赤字增至240亿美元。总体预算收入下降了35%，而支出增长了近60%。

成品油价格上限于2月5日生效。这将使俄罗斯每天的收入进一步减少8000万美元。包括自主减产在内，俄罗斯的收入每天将减少1.1亿美元，即每月减少33亿美元，甚至可能更多。

February 20, 2023 Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies have deteriorated Russia’s capacity to replace more than 9,000 pieces of military equipment lost in the war, including about half of its tanks.

“Today, Russia can’t produce enough arms to meet their basic needs and to be a supplier to the countries that rely on them,” Adeyemo said.

More than 30 countries representing upward of half the world’s economy – including the U.S., the EU members, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Japan and others – have imposed price caps on Russian oil and diesel, instituted export controls, and frozen Russian Central Bank funds.

美国财政部副部长沃利·阿德耶莫说，美国及其盟国实施的制裁削弱了俄罗斯更换战争中损失的9000多件军事装备的能力，其中包括大约一半的坦克。

阿德耶莫说：“现在俄罗斯无法生产足够的武器来满足他们的基本需求，也无力供应依赖着他们的国家的需求。”

占世界经济一半以上的30多个国家—包括美国、欧盟成员国、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、日本和其他国家—都对俄罗斯的石油和柴油实行价格上限，实行出口管制，并冻结俄罗斯中央银行的资金。

Russia has not been able to make war equipment in quantity since 2014 when sanctions were first imposed. Reports from Ukraine say that in the remains of Russian missiles they find microprocessors salvaged from Refrigerators and Dishwashers.

Russia has announced that in March it will cut crude oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in a bid to stymie the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel. For one thing Russia has been selling oil for less than $60 per barrel for months. And in addition it will lose tax revenues normally generated in the production and sale.

This will mean a decrease in revenues of at least $30 million per day nominally, cap or no cap.

自2014年首次实施制裁以来，俄罗斯一直无法大量生产战争装备。来自乌克兰的报道称，在俄罗斯导弹残骸中，他们发现了从冰箱和洗碗机中回收的微处理器。

俄罗斯宣布，将于3月份将原油日产量削减50万桶，以对抗七国集团设定的每桶60美元的价格上限。但俄罗斯几个月来一直以每桶不到60美元的价格出售石油。同是俄罗斯还将失去生产和销售中产生的税收收入。

这将意味着俄罗斯名义上每天至少减少3000万美元的收入。

In fact it is far more likely that Russia is cutting production because it does not have any place to store the oil and cannot get enough tankers to carry it even if it had buyers. So it is going to have to close down wells and it will be extremely difficult or impossible to later bring them back due to the extreme cold conditions in the likely affected fields and the loss to Russia of finance, expertise, and equipment from Western oil companies that have departed from Russia since the war began.

事实上，俄罗斯削减产量更有可能是因为它没有地方储存石油了，即便有买家，也无法找到足够的油轮来运载石油。因此，俄罗斯将不得不关闭油井，由于油田的极端寒冷条件，西方石油公司自战争爆发之后纷纷从俄罗斯撤资、专业知识和设备的损失，俄罗斯很难或不可能在未来恢复油井的生产。

Russia has been heavily hit by a massive shortage of ship capacity. Before the war 90% of Russia's shipped oil/oil products were in G7 owned ships. Russia does not have anywhere near the ship it needs to replace the loss of pipeline traffic; and worldwide ships have become scarce as Europe has turned to tanker deliveries to replace previously pipelined Natural Gas and oil. The EU/G7 is the source of 65% -75% of Russia's energy ship capacity as of February.

俄罗斯已遭受航运能力严重不足的严重打击。战前，俄罗斯90%的石油/石油产品都是由归属七国集团的船只运输的。俄罗斯的航运远远无法弥补管道运输的损失；随着欧洲用油轮运输取代之前的管道输送，全球船舶资源越来越紧缺。截至今年2月，欧盟/七国集团占俄罗斯能源航运能力的65% -75%。

At this point almost all EU countries have completely stopped buying Russian gas and oil and refined products; a few have been unable to develop alternatives and are receiving pipeline oil. But Russia cannot sell this energy in many other places because it has neither pipelines nor ships to replace its EU sales. Further the market for refined oil products is hard to grow because it is more economical for countries to buy crude and refine it themselves. China and India have bought more crude but not more refined products from Russia. Sales of crude to them grew but Russia had to discount the oil significantly.

目前，几乎所有欧盟国家都已完全停止购买俄罗斯的天然气、石油和精炼产品；只有少数国家无法开发替代品，只能接受管道输送的石油。但俄罗斯无法在更多地区销售石油，因为它没有管道也没有船只。此外，成品油市场很难增长，因为各国更愿意购买原油并自行提炼，这样更为经济。中国和印度从俄罗斯购买了更多的原油，而不是更多的成品油。对这些国家的原油销售增长了，但俄罗斯不得不大幅打折。

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