The Guardian reports that China's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter.  In your opinion, what are the implications of this economic growth?

《卫报》报道，中国经济在第三季度的增长快于预期。在您看来，这种经济增长意味着什么？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

I don't understand this

Anyone who knows the basic fundamentals of Economics will know that Chinas economy is doing alright under a slew of problems coming at the same time

Lockdown impact

Global Demand slump

Real Estate Slump in China

Aggressive Policies against Rollover Debt

我不太理解。

了解经济学基本原理的人都知道，在一系列问题同时出现的情况下，中国经济的运行还是有序良好的：

疫情封锁的影响

全球需求低迷

中国房地产市场低迷

针对债务展期的激进政策

Chinas growth at 5% or nearby at such a time, is thus an indication of how strong China is fundamentally

Chinese Economy had always been driven by 2 factors - Manufacturing & Exports

Now it's changing it's drive to - Consumer Spending & Technological Innovation

In order to sustain its economy and keep growth to around 3.5–4.5% a year for the next 10 years, China is going the right way

在这个时候，中国的经济增长率还能达到或接近5%，这说明中国的根基非常强大。

中国经济一直由两个因素驱动—制造业和出口。

现在，中国正在调整自己的驱动力—消费者支出和技术创新。

为了保持经济持续增长，并在未来10年保持3.5-4.5%的年增长率，中国选择了正确的道路。

There will be fluctuations from 3.8% to 6.5% from quarter to quarter

Doesn't mean the Economy is doing well and badly from quarter to quarter

Chinas Economy is in Chrysalis

By 2030, China would be cemented onto it's newer economic model banking on Consumption, Technological Independence & Digital Growth while Manufacturing and Trade will be more sustaining factors than accelarators

It will be the first Asian Nation hopefully to achieve this stage

Japan was throttled by the West in 1985 Or they would have gone to this stage in 2003–2004

各季度之间会出现3.8%至6.5%的波动。

这并不意味着经济每季度都有好有坏。

中国经济正在等待化茧成蝶。

到2030年，中国就会巩固其依靠消费、技术独立和数字增长带来的新的经济模式，而制造业和贸易也会继续作为可持续的因素。

中国将是第一个有望实现这一阶段的亚洲国家

日本在1985年被西方压制，否则他们本应在2003-2004年进入这个阶段。

Robert Quek

Question is “whose expectations?”

Foreign institutions and houses make forecasts of countries for their clients in the finance industry. The primary purpose of their forecasts and the upgrades/downgrades are to generate activities in the financial businesses. Economic fundamentals take a back seat.

Guardian and other journals have no expertise about China’s economy. They just echo.

They went to town that China’s economy was in problem when the foreign institutions downgraded their forecast because GDP of +6.3% in 2Q23 was below their expectations. They now change course and upgrade their forecasts because GDP +4.9% in 3Q23 was above their expectations.

问题在于，“在谁看来呢？”

外国机构为客户预测不同国家的金融行业的情况。他们的预测和升级/降级的主要目的是在金融业务中进行相应的操作。经济基本面让位于次要位置。

《卫报》和其他杂志对中国经济并没有专业认识，它们只是个传声筒。

当外国机构下调中国经济预期时，他们就会赶紧表示中国经济存在问题，因为2023年第二季度GDP增长6.3%低于他们的预期。他们现在又赶紧调转方向，上调了预测，因为2023年第三季度的GDP +4.9%高于他们的预期。

China’s own target of GDP this year stays at +5.0%. It is confident to achieve it. If you are looking for implications, you may note that:

中国自己今年的GDP目标是增长5%。中国有信心实现这一目标。如果你正在寻找证据，你可能会注意到:

(1) The growth is fundamental. China had not poured in bucketful of money during Covid or after to raise the economy. Inflation is less than 2%.

(2) It is despite difficulties in the exports market, lower exports to the US and Europe. But it was able to make up with higher exports elsewhere, viz. Russia, ASEAN, and BRI countries.

(1 )增长是根本性的。中国在疫情期间和疫情之后并没有投入大量资金来提振经济。通货膨胀率还不到2%。

(2) 出口市场十分艰难，中国对美国和欧洲的出口下滑了。但中国通过其他地区(俄罗斯、东盟和一带一路国家)的出口增加进行了弥补。

(3) The continued drag by the real estate sector, which is in a financial crisis triggered by the government’s tough regulations to control the debts and leverages of the developers. This will remain for at least another 2 years.

(4) And the belligerence of the US, with multiple layers of technology sanctions and whatever, which have less and less and rapidly diminishing effectiveness.

(3)房地产行业的持续萎靡，政府严格监管，控制开发商的债务和杠杆，引发了房地产行业的金融危机。这种情况至少还要持续两年。

(4)美国好战，长期使用多种程度的技术制裁和其他制裁，但这些制裁的效果越来越差。

Bill Chen

Related

What do you think is the reason behind China's stronger-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter?

您认为中国三季度经济增长好于预期的原因是什么？

I think people should be surprised, but not because the number beat expectation.

People should be surprised that China went its own way since 2018–19 and still managed to navigate covid and the trade war without coordinating policy with the first world.

There has been no massive liquidity increase.

No profligate fiscal stimulus.

No excessive currency devaluation.

No history’s lowest interest rates.

And most importantly, no violent conflict.

我认为人们应该会惊讶，但不是因为这个数字超过了预期。

人们应该感到惊讶的是，中国自2018 - 2019年至今，走出了自己的发展之路，在没有采取与第一世界协同政策的情况下，仍然成功地应对了新冠疫情和贸易战的挑战。

没有大规模的流动性增加。

没有挥霍无度的财政刺激。

没有货币的过度贬值。

没有出现历史上最低的利率。

最重要的是，没有发生过暴 力冲突。

And now, in a desperate attempt to rein in inflation brought about by irresponsible monetary policy, there is tightening liquidity and sharply higher rates (with several notable exceptions). The economic impact has been cushioned by extravagant deficit-driven fiscal spending.

This is wholly unlike the aftermath of the GFC.

现在，为了遏制不负责任的货币政策带来的通胀，美国出现了流动性收紧和利率大幅上升。过度的赤字驱动的财政支出缓冲了经济影响。

这与全球金融危机的后果完全不同。

China is doing the opposite, having recently opened up its economy by ending zero-covid control. Liquidity control has relaxed, rates are down, and fiscal spending is being adjusted to stimulate the economy. Domestic travel and tourism numbers this year are the best since 2020, and the outlook is rosy, though international travel remain down.

What has slowed down dramatically is the export hump from the first world’s work-from-home driven consumer demand, as well as the disruptive American assault on Chinese economic interests.

中国则反其道而为之，最近结束了疫情清零政策，开放经济。中国放松了流动性控制，利率下降，还调整了财政支出来刺激经济。今年中国的国内出行和旅行数据是2020年以来最好的，前景乐观，但国际旅行继续低迷。

出现大幅放缓的是第一世界因居家办公的消费者需求导致的出口峰值，以及美国对中国经济利益的破坏性攻击。

China has been a net seller of American federal debt this year.

The yuan has resisted the yen’s 100% plunge in the past decade, despite the yen being an important component within the basket of currencies used to determine the exchange rate band.

China has pursued explicit diversification, and the ~150 BRI countries (which exclude most of the first world) has already grown to account for almost half of Chinese trade. I won’t be surprised to see the number grow to 60–70% in the next decade, because there is plenty of low-hanging fruit left to drive strong growth.

今年以来，中国一直对美国国债保持净卖出。

过去10年，虽然日元是用来决定汇率区间的一篮子货币的重要组成部分，但人民币扛住了日元100%的暴跌冲击。

中国一直在寻求明确的多元化，大约有150个国家加入“一带一路”，(不包括大多数第一世界国家)几乎已经增长到占中国贸易总量一半的规模。如果这个数字在未来十年继续增长到60-70%，我也绝对不会吃惊。

Domestically, the real estate bubble is being slowly deflated, and local governments have taken a spectrum of approaches, while the liquidity crunch has eased somewhat. However, the era of shadow-banking fueled speculation appears done and dusted, with many players, including foreign ones, licking ga wounds. The web of real-estate linked debt obligations remain an economic risk, and it will take years to sort out in orderly fashion.

中国国内的房地产泡沫正在缓慢破灭，地方政府采取了一系列措施，而流动性紧缩有所缓解。影子银行推动的投机时代似乎已经结束，许多参与者，包括外国参与者，都遭受了损失。与房地产相关的债务仍然是一个经济风险点，需要数年时间才能有序地解决。

Hopefully, savings that used to flow exclusively into real estate will be deployed elsewhere, such as tech, green energy and rural revitalization.

These are structural changes to the economy. Making these painful reforms in a dynamic and hostile external environment can be construed as unnecessary risk-taking, but China has to seize the opportunity, or risk irrelevance hanging on to the status quo.

我希望，过去只流入房地产的居民储蓄可以流入其他领域，如科技、绿色能源和农村振兴。

这些都是经济的结构性变化。在充满活力和敌意的外部环境中进行这些痛苦的改革，可能会被理解为不必要的冒险，但中国必须抓住这个机会，否则就只能继续保持现状。

The problem to grapple with isn’t the direction, but the speed of transition, and the shocks and disruptions springing up to fix, contain and reverse Chinese economic progress.

I’d say the real goldilocks economy today isn’t America, but China. Just plenty of frustration from change and uncertainty, and pockets of real stress here and there.

需要解决的问题不在于转型的方向，而在于转型的速度，以及为了修复、遏制和逆转中国经济进步而出现的冲击和破坏。

我想说，今天真正的金发姑娘的经济已经不是美国了，而是中国。变化和不确定性会导致极大的挫折感，四周环伺着真正的压力。

Continental Asia is being remade as we speak, after “Europe’s” rejection of Russia as “European”. Russia’s future lies East, because Russia is identifying as Asian. Landlocked central Asia will tap into the BRI and reshape traffic flow in goods, people and information through the superhighway China is constructing. The global trade in commodities and goods is being fundamentally reshaped by new trade links mushrooming across the world’s longest border.

As always, the Chinese are masters of adaptation, and do so at incredible speed, coordinated by a government that knows what it is doing, especially in the harnessing and management of shared humanity.

在“欧洲”拒绝把俄罗斯纳入“欧洲”之后，亚洲大陆的局势开始重新塑造。俄罗斯的未来在东方，因为俄罗斯被认为是亚洲国家。中亚内陆地区将融入“一带一路”，通过中国正在建设的“高速公路”，重塑商品、人员和信息的流动。全球大宗商品和商品贸易正在从根本上被世界上最长边境上涌现的新的贸易关系所重塑。

中国人自古就是适应的大师，而且在一个对自己的行为十分清醒的政府的协调下，中国以令人难以置信的速度做到了这一点，特别是在对人性的利用和管理方面。

Joseph Wang

What do you think is the reason behind China's stronger-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter?

Because economists suck at forecasting.

You’d think that economists have these sophisticated models but they basically guess at random and then they invariably guess wrong they will overcorrect. So when the Chinese economy underperforms expectations, they will lower their expectations until it gets too low and then the economy will outperform the expectations.

您认为中国三季度经济增长好于预期的原因是什么？

因为经济学家并不擅长预测。

你会认为经济学家有复杂的模型，但他们基本上也是靠随机猜测，他们常常猜错，他们会矫枉过正。因此，当中国经济表现低于预期时，他们会降低预期，等到这种预期又会变得太低，随后经济表现又会超过预期。

Kevin Anderson

I haven’t seen the Guardian report so I am assuming they are reporting someone else’s work, probably the National Bureau of Statistics.

It will depend if the reported summary statistic is quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year. The better measure is year-on-year because seasonal variation is minimised or is irrelevant.

You might recall that the September quarter, 2022 was “lockdown time”. This quarter is a low or lowish reference point.

我还没有看到卫报的报道，我猜他们只是转载了别人的内容，可能是国家统计局。

这个结果取决于报告的汇总统计数据是季度环比还是季度同比。更好的衡量标准是同比，因为同比可以把季度的变化调整到最小。

你可能还记得，2022年9月还处于”封城时期”。这个季度是一个较低的参考点。

I don’t know whose expectations provide the reference for the Guardian article.

If you are a student of China’s economy watch year-on-year exports (volume and values) movement, and year-on-year imports (volumes and values) movement.

I regret that I can’t be of more assistance.

我不知道是谁为《卫报》的文章提供了参考。

如果你是中国经济的研究人员，请观察出口(数量和价值)和进口(数量和价值)的同比变化。

我能提供的帮助就是这些了。

Joseph Loh

But it is still below par, imf and the world needs china to do better than the expected 5.5 or 6.5 ( as done during the late premier tenure) the whole world knows that we need China to do well, because only China can help jump start the economy reset, even USA and EU ho so, but at observing the rules and orders of the USA and G7 , it’s like what is expected from their colonial subjects, why worry about China? Can a slave master push the slave to work harder but the slave knows that as the master becomes strong enough, the other slaves will turn against each others to please the master again, please don’t put forward such naive ideas and questions

国际货币基金组织和全世界都需要中国超过预期的5.5或6.5。整个世界都知道，我们需要中国更加努力，因为只有中国可以帮助重振世界经济，就连美国和欧盟也希望如此。但美国和七国集团的法规和决议似乎正是他们的殖民地所希望的，为什么要担心中国？

奴隶主能强迫奴隶更努力地工作吗？但奴隶知道，当奴隶主变得足够强大时，奴隶之间会互相敌对，讨好奴隶主，所以请不要提出这种幼稚的想法和问题。

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