In your opinion, will China become a developed country before 2030?  Please be objective.

你认为中国能在2030年前成为发达国家吗？请客观回答

以下是Quora网友的评价：

The NumOneStunna

No.

China love that develo nation preferred treatment they have been enjoying for so long

不。

中国喜欢享受发展中国家的优惠待遇，他们已经享受太久了。

Not including the billions in foreign aid, mostly western aid, China also receive many loans from the world bank that the country isn't even eligible to recieve. They get the best of both worlds. Imagine how nice it must be. The credit line of the rich, interest rates only poor countries recieve, free international ship, billions of dollars in various aid, and billions in investment. They're killing it. Why throw all that out?

除了数十亿美元的外国援助（主要是西方援助），中国还从世界银行获得了许多贷款，这些贷款本来中国是没有资格获得的。他们把两边的好处都占了。你想想这有多美好。富国给了贷款，但利率是穷国才能享受的低息，免费的国际航运，数十亿美元的各种援助，以及数十亿美元的投资。他们不要太爽啊。凭什么不要？

Robert Deck

Go to China and experience one of the most beautiful and developed countries in the world right now. Liston to fake news reports and believe what they say to discourage you. The truth will set you free like I did and I’m happy to say there has been no disappointment at all.

现在就动身去中国，看看这个世界上最美丽、最发达的国家之一。听信假新闻，相信他们说的话，只会阻碍你的脚步。真相会让你像我一样自由，我很高兴地说，我去过中国后一点也不失望。

Kam Wong

The definition of a developed country is not set in stone. The article below set out the criteria in a round about way including a group of data like:

发达国家的定义并不是一成不变的。下面的文章粗略地列出了一些标准，包括一组数据，如：

Countries with relatively high levels of economic growth and security are considered to have developed economies.

Common criteria for evaluation include income per capita or per capita gross domestic product.

If per capita gross domestic product is high but a country has poor infrastructure and income inequality, it would not be considered a developed economy.

Noneconomic factors, such as the human development index, may also be used as criteria.

Develo economies are often helped by globalization to reach improved levels of income and increased standards of living.

经济增长和安全水平相对较高的国家会被视为发达经济体。

一般的评价标准包括人均收入或人均国内生产总值。

如果一个国家的人均国内生产总值(GDP)很高，但基础设施薄弱，民众收入差距大，那么也不会被视为发达经济体。

非经济因素，如人类发展指数，也可用作标准。

发展中经济体往往可以在全球化的帮助下提高了民众的收入水平和生活水平。

China has set a target for itself of reaching a PCI nominal of USD 30,000 by the year 2035 before they considered themselves as developed.

Most of the forecasters have a range of values in the range from USD20,000 to USD 27,000 for the year 2030. 中国为自己设定了一个目标，2035年要达到名义GDP 3万美元，才能被视为发达国家。

大多数人对中国2030年的预测值范围在2万美元到2.7万美元之间。

My back of the envelop calculation is also in the ball park figures of USD 23000 tp USD 26,000 for the PCI nominal of China. These figures came about assuming that China will not be engaged in any war. It also assumes that China is continuing making scientific inventions and tech innovations. It also assumes that the US will not implode and resort to printing fiat money irresponsibly.

If that criteria of USD 30,000 is used, then China will most likely qualified by the year 2035. Most criteria assumes that USD 30,000 is the entry level to developed status.

我本人计算的中国名义GDP在23000美元到26000美元之间。这是在假设中国不会卷入任何战争的前提下得出的，而且还假设中国不会中断科学发明和技术创新，同时假设美国不会崩盘，不会肆无忌惮地印刷钞票。

如果按照3万美元的标准，那么中国很可能在2035年达到这个标准。大多数标准都认为3万美元是进入发达国家的门槛。

In summary, the stated goal of China as stated in their 14th Five year plan was a Per Capita Income nominal of USD 30,000 by the year 2035. By the year 2030, most forecasters had given figures from USD 23,000 to 26,000. However, if those figures were extrapolated to 2035, then China will definitely be considered developed. This assumes that the US will not implode or it will only create fiat money moderately and not act like a Banana Republic printing truckloads of money irresponsibly. By 2030, China will not feel that it will be developed enough, however by the year 2035, it will be more reassured!

综上所述，中国在第14个五年计划中提出的目标是到2035年人均名义收入达到3万美元。到2030年，大多数预测者给出的数字在2.3万至2.6万美元之间。但如果这些数据后推到2035年，那么中国肯定会被视为发达国家。前提是美国国内不会出乱子，或者适度发行法定货币，不会像中、南美洲发展中国家那样不负责任地大量印钞。到2030年，中国会觉得自己还不够发达，但等到2035年就更稳妥了。

Proce Mafacese

China has a big problem. The (unskilled) traditional farming population is 200 million, and the per capita disposable income is about 18,000 yuan. China’s unskilled population is almost 500 to 700 million, and the per capita disposable income in urban areas is about 46,000 yuan. The income gap About 2.6 times, the same unskilled labor force, how does the 2.6 times difference in income arise? There are many reasons, and industrial clustering may be an important reason. However, the ruling line of  China is to surround cities with rural areas, and rural areas and agricultural workers are the base areas. If China wants to enter the ranks of developed countries, either agriculture will be the third unlimited credit industry of the central bank after the real estate and new energy industries, or the Ministry of Finance will subsidize the income of the 200 million farming population.

中国存在一个大问题。传统农业的非熟练劳动力有2亿，人均可支配收入约为1.8万元。中国的非熟练劳动力近5亿至7亿，城镇地区人均可支配收入约为4.6万元。

城乡收入差距约为2.6倍，同样的非熟练劳动力，为何会出现2.6倍的收入差距？原因有很多，产业集群可能是其中一个重要原因。

不过中国的执政路线是农村包围城市，农村和农业工人是根据地。

中国要进入发达国家行列，要么把农业发展成继房地产和新能源行业之后央行的第三个无限信贷行业，要么让财政部对2亿农业人口的收入进行补贴。

According to China's current policy line, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will have fewer and fewer tools in their toolboxes, and inflation and foreign exchange control will be the only means. If China can stabilize its exchange rate between 7.8 and 8 before 2025, it may be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Otherwise, China will become a developed country like the Soviet Union before 2030.

按照中国目前的政策路线，财政部和央行的工具将越来越少，通货膨胀和外汇管制将是唯一的手段。如果中国能在2025年之前将人民币汇率稳定在7.8到8之间，或许可以松一口气。否则，中国将在2030年前成为像苏联那样的发达国家。

Mario Biermann

Well, this is what I learned at high school in Europe (Germany), a few years ago…

I hope this helps you:

嗯，这是我几年前在欧洲(德国)的高中所学到的……

我希望这对你有所帮助：

GDP/CAPITA for 1st, 2nd and 3rd World Countries (Nominal in USD) :

1st World = Developed = Above 30.000 USD

2nd World = Develo = 5.000 to 30.000 USD

3th World = Underdeveloped = Below 5.000 USD

And below 1.000 USD = Failed State (I call them #ShitHole)

第一、第二和第三世界国家的人均GDP(名义美元)：

第一世界=发达国家= 3万美元以上

第二世界=发展中国家= 5000到30000美元

第三世界=不发达国家=低于5000美元

低于1000美元=失败国家 (我称之为#粪坑)

The Develo World is further split into 3 groups:

Advanced = 20.000 USD to 30.000 USD

Emerging = 10.000 USD to 20.000 USD

Frontier = 5.000 USD to 10.000 USD

发展中国家可以进一步细分为三组：

先进国家= 20,000美元到30,000美元

新兴国家= 1万美元至2万美元

边缘国家= 5000美元到10000美元

As of 2023 China has a nominal GDP/Capita of only 12000 USD. They will have to more than double their economic output in only 7 years… Obviously, in the current climate that's impossible. Now, a fascist state is good for the economy - but only for a limited time! And that time is almost over for China.

截至2023年，中国名义人均GDP只有12000美元。他们必须在短短7年内将经济产出增加一倍以上……显然，在目前的局势下，这是不可能的任务。现在，国家对经济有好处—但只能在短期内发挥作用！对中国来说，这样的美好时代即将结束。

Offers24/7

Predicting the future is challenging, but China has shown significant economic growth. Whether it becomes a developed country by 2030 depends on various factors, including economic policies, global dynamics, and internal stability. It's uncertain, and outcomes may vary.

China's trajectory towards becoming a developed country hinges on sustained economic reforms, technological advancements, and global relations. The nation has made substantial progress, but achieving developed status involves addressing social, environmental, and innovation challenges. Monitoring these factors will provide insights into China's development path.

预测未来很有挑战性，但中国已经展示出显著的经济增长成果。2030年中国能否成为发达国家取决于经济政策、全球局势、国内稳定性等多种因素。这些因素并不确定，所以结果可能会有所不同。

中国通往发达国家的发展之路取决于持续的经济改革、技术进步和全球关系。中国已经取得了长足的进步，但想要成为发达国家，还需要解决社会、环境和创新方面的挑战。监察这些因素有助于洞察中国的发展道路。

Chris Keath

China has become a developed country in 2022, the US has passed laws to state it.

Before 2030, China will become the largest economies in the world.

中国在2022年就已经成为发达国家了，美国已经通过法律声明了这一点。

到2030年，中国将成为全球最大的经济体。

Hank Barley

A2A. Yes, I always tried to be objective. This is a loaded question though, because there isn’t a yardstick for determining a developed country. China is a huge country with huge contrast between the 1st and 2nd cities and rural and remote areas in all aspects of measurement. So, China has probably the most advanced cities ranking due to the like of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beiing; smaller but great cities such as Hangzhou and Suzhou (smaller in Chinese standard, but they are equivalent to major American cities). Then, there are also remote backwaters that the people earns 1/20 or less of the wages of the big cities, but many do have excellent sceneries. I guess you can say they have natural wealth, but in many way intangible in economic measurement. Taken all together the average will not yield a 1st ranked developed country status. However, the coastal cities, and few major interior ones, will soon outperform any country, including the US.

是的，我一直努力保持客观。这是一个信息量很大的问题，我们并没有衡量发达国家的标准。

中国是一个幅员辽阔的国家，一、二线城市与农村、偏远地区在各个方面都存在着巨大的差异。

因此，中国可能拥有一批发达城市，比如深圳、广州、上海和北京等城市；中国也有一批小而美的城市，如杭州和苏州。

除此之外，中国还有一些偏远的乡村，当地人的工资只有大城市居民的1/20甚至更少，但其中许多地方拥有绝美的风景。

我猜你可以说他们拥有自然财富，但在经济衡量中只是无形资产。

综合来看，平均而言中国很难引领发达国家阵营。但中国沿海城市和少数主要内陆城市的表现将很快超过其他国家，包括美国。

Anna Liu

i don’t think so. china’s development is quite uneven. there still are many people and area which need help.

and meantime, there are many western medias keep bashing china, cook up fake stories, along with many netizens who can’t tell right from wrong, creating obstacles to slow china’s development. any policies china tried to develop rural areas will be narrated as the control,  like people should be able to not being educated, they should just stay illiterate, which is the most ridiculous thing i ve ever heard.

我并不赞同。中国的发展很不平衡，仍有许多人、许多地区需要援助。

与此同时，有许多西方媒体不断抨击中国，编造虚假故事，加上许多是非不分的网民，都给中国的发展制造了障碍。中国努力发展农村地区的政策会被解读为操，比如中国人应该可以选择不接受教育，他们应该继续当文盲，这简直是我这辈子听过的最荒谬的事。

Ben Chan

according to news from media under the powerful Jew's control in US and EU, China will collapse, become a poor ,broke ,country before 2030. so relax, no worry

根据媒体报告，在美国和欧盟强大的犹太人势力的控制下，中国2030年之前会崩盘，沦为贫穷、破产的国家。所以放轻松，别操心。

Yang Guang

China already is ahead. super subway system electric buses you name train's all over China 24 hrs movement electric car is taking over. Guns do not exst. China traffic is well controlled speed is controlled. 2030 China is well developed now.

中国已经领先了。超级地铁，电动公交车，铁路网络遍布中国，24小时运行，电动汽车正在取代然后骑车。中国没有枪支问题。中国的交通管控十分出色，时速控制出色。别说2030了，中国现在就已经很发达了。