Why are there so many Indians that predict India' GDP will surpass China's GDP in the near future?

为什么有那么多印度人预测印度的GDP将在不久的将来超过中国？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Santosh Kumar

We can predict about going to Jupyter and what not. The prediction is based on some assumptions. The assumption in question here is that systemic issues with economy can be addressed in a decade or so. We will generate enough jobs, industrialize, attract top talent innovate and blah blah. Realistically we Indians are growing at snail rate and though we do grow it is nowhere near China. Thus, predictions make some people feel good I guess.

我们还大可以预测去木星的事呢，预测谁不会。预测是基于一些假设。这个问题的假设在于，经济的系统性问题可以在10年左右的时间内得到解决。我们可以创造足够的就业机会，实现工业化，吸引顶尖人才，实现创新等等。实际上，我们印度人的增长速度就是蜗牛爬，虽然我们确实增长了，但远不及中国。因此，预测只是让一些人感觉很好让他们感觉很好。

Kancheepuram Narasimhan

1.why not ? why yr heart burns>

2.iNDIA has more hands than china now= population

3.india has more working hands now

4.india has dedicated leadership now. It was ruled by corrupt filthy selfish congress most of the time.

5.India has minerals recently white silver lithium deposits were found

6.the purchasing power- propensity- of indian has increased hundred times as compared to 1990. Every rag picker has mobile, TV, 2 wheeler. if the buying power increases, GDP increases.

7.India has potential to surpass China’s GDP.

1.为什么不呢？你在激动什么？

2.印度人口现在已经超过中国

3.印度现在有更多的劳动力

4.印度现在有了全心全意谋发展的领导人。而之前大部分时间都处在腐败、肮脏、自私的国大党的统治下。

5.印度有矿产，最近还发现了白色银锂矿床

6.印度人有购买力—和1990年相比已经增长了100倍。连拾荒者都有手机，电视，两轮车了。如果购买力增加，GDP就会增加。

7.印度有赶超中国GDP的潜力。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

It's simple

Quora is full of Indians

Many of them are hay brained teen Indians who like hearing unrealistic things about their country and believe short cuts without hard work is smart

Give them an answer like India will beat Chinas GDP in 20 years because of Vedas or Modi or Unicorn Startups or Infrastructure and they will swarm you with upvotes and ensure your question and answer gains maxmum traction

很简单

Quora上全是印度人。

他们中有很多都是头脑迟钝的印度青少年，他们就喜欢听关于自己国家的不切实际的事情，他们觉得不用付出努力，走捷径才是聪明之道。

只要给他们一个答案，说说诸如印度GDP将在20年内超过中国，原因是印度有吠陀、莫迪、独角兽创业公司或基础设施，他们绝对会给你点赞，让你的问题和回答获得最大的关注。

And they say I keep badmouthing India

You are a $ 3.53 Trillion economy

That means if your GDP grows by even 10%, you are pum $ 353 Billion into your economy in a year

If China grows by a mere 2.5% a year, it still pumps almost $ 500 Billion a year into its Economy, almost 1.5 times more

So you need to grow exponentially across the next 20–25 years at almost 4.25 times Chinas rate to be able to surpass China by 2050 in GDP

他们说我一直都在说印度的坏话

你们印度只是一个3.53万亿美元的经济体

这意味着，假如印度的GDP增长率为10%，一年可以为印度经济新增3530亿美元

就算中国的年增长率只有2.5%，那么每年仍将为其经济新增近5000亿美元，几乎是印度的1.5倍

所以印度需要在接下来的20-25年里保持着4.25倍于中国的速度增长，GDP才有可能在2050年超过中国

How exactly do you propose to do so?

You realize China is far from saturated and has almost 200 Million more families who will become middle class as time goes by

They will spend more and more

They will be richer and have almost $ 70,000 — $ 90,000 a household by 2030

The Global South will have almost 3.5 Billion people United by the Belt Road Initiative and buying Chinese goods and spending their money in China

你到底打算怎么做？

你应该知道，中国还远未饱和呢，随着时间的推移，还有近2亿家庭将晋升中产阶级

他们的消费会越来越多

到2030年，中国将更加富有，中国家庭的收入将达到近7万至9万美元

南半球将有近35亿人在“一带一路”下团结起来，购买中国商品，在中国消费

Like China made its massive money by selling to Western Markets in the 2000s, you have to sell your products in the Red Hot Global South Markets and that can't happen if China doesn't want you to or you don't have a friendlier relationship with China

You can't sell to the Western Markets

They are stagnant now and saturated

Even if you start today from scratch, it would take you 15 years merely to develop a base sufficient enough for an Industrial Production of 30% of what China has today

就像中国在2000年代通过向西方市场销售产品赚了大钱一样，你必须在炽热的南半球市场销售印度产品，但如果中国不希望你这样做，或者你和中国的关系不够友好，那么这是不可能发生的

你没办法在西方市场销售

他们现在经济停滞不前，饱和了

就算你今天就从零开始，也需要耗费15年的时间来打基础，达到如今中国工业能力的30%

Fudging numbers on paper and claiming paper success is not difficult

Yet real growth needs more than that

Stop taking Ganja and be realistic

纸上谈兵，编造数据，夸夸其谈一点难度都没有

但想要达到真正的增长，需要的远非这些

别抽大麻了，都现实点吧

Bharat Jakati

First of all, are there really that many Indians that predict such a thing? I would be really surprised.

The ones that do are the ones that believe India’s GDP is now at 4 trillion USD after being around 3.3 trillion 6 months back (44% annualized growth rate, FFS).

首先，真的有那么多印度人预测这样的事情吗？我可太惊讶了。

那些感兴趣的人认为印度的GDP在6个月前3.3万亿美元(年化增长率为44%)，现在就能达到4万亿美元。

China’s GDP as of writing this is just above USD 18 trillion. It is still growing at 5% annually. It was USD 14.5 trillion in 2019. In 4 years it has added 25% to its GDP. In the same time frame, India has gone from USD 2.84 trillion to USD 3.4 trillion, a shade over 20%.

Not only is Chinese GDP 5x that of India’s, it is also growing slightly faster over an aggregated period of time. GDP (China) - GDP (India) - the difference will only widen over time.

在撰写本文时，中国的GDP刚刚超过18万亿美元，而且还在以每年5%的速度保持增长。2019年为14.5万亿美元。在4年里，中国GDP增长了25%。与此同时，印度的GDP从2.84万亿美元增长到3.4万亿美元，增幅超过20%。

中国的GDP不仅是印度的5倍，而且总体增长速度也更快。目前，GDP(中国)- GDP(印度)的差异只会随着时间的推移而扩大。

If India grows at 15% annually and China continues growing at 5% annually, India will surpass China in 2042, slightly over 18 years. India is not going to grow 15% annually for any length of time.

Let’s assume on the other end that China stagnates suddenly and its GDP does not grow at all until India catches up with it. India meanwhile grows at 8% annually. Even in that scenario, India will take 22 years to catch up to China. Even that is not going to happen.

如果印度保持每年15%的增长速度，而中国继续以每年5%的速度增长，印度也得等到2042年才能超过中国，也就是18年多一点的时间。但印度是不可能以每年15%的速度增长的。

让我们假设另一种可能，中国突然停滞不前，GDP完全没有增长，等到印度追赶上来。与此同时，印度的年增长率保持在8%。即便在这种情况下，印度也需要22年才能赶上中国。这种情况也不可能发生。

A realistic yet (wildly) optimistic scenario is China grows at 3.5% annually and India grows at 7.5% annually. That’s a 4% growth differential. By the time that happens, I will probably have grandkids going to secondary school, i.e. 44 years into the future.

44 years is 55% of an optimistic human life expectancy — definitely not near future.

一个现实但(非常)乐观的情况是，中国的年增长率为3.5%，印度的年增长率为7.5%。两者存在4%的增长差距。印度赶超中国时，我的孙子们可能都要上中学了，也就是44年后。

44年是乐观情况下人类预期寿命的55%—绝对称不上不久的将来。

I live in Europe and while things are declining here, it’s clear that Europe, and in time the US, have dominated the world for well over 300 years.

Do you know why?

They invented. They built. Technology, infrastructure, social systems, political systems, financial systems, legal systems. Individuals don’t last. Systems do. Once you build robust systems, you can live off them for centuries.

You know who’s doing that now? China.

我住在欧洲，虽然这里的情况正在衰退，但显然欧洲和美国已经统治世界300多年了。

你知道为什么吗？

他们搞发明。他们搞建造。还有科技，基础设施，社会系统，政治系统，金融系统，法律系统。个体无法长久，只有系统可以。一旦你搭建了强大的系统，就可以依靠它们维系几个世纪。

你知道现在谁也在做这些事吗？中国。

China is not interested in defeating India in war. They are establishing global dominance.

The MD of a leading chip manufacturer recently shared a slide at a conference I attended. Do you know what China’s share in semiconductor wafer manufacturing is? Somewhere in the range of 90%.

Li batteries - 80%

Wind energy equipment - 67%

中国没有兴趣在战争中打败印度。他们正在建立自己的全球主导地位。

最近我参加了一场会议，一家领先芯片制造商的总经理分享了一张幻灯片。你知道中国在半导体晶圆制造中的比重是多少吗？90%多。

锂电池- 80%

风能设备- 67%

This is just in the area of green-tech, which is undoubtedly the future.

China beats the entire world combined, hands down, in the manufacturing of future technologies and equipment.

Do you know which country has made the most progress towards achieving cold fusion? China. Do you know what cold fusion does? Think clean nuclear energy. That’s the future of future.

这只是绿色科技领域内的情况，这无疑就是未来。

在未来技术和设备的制造方面，中国毫不费力地击败了整个世界。

你知道哪个国家在实现冷聚变方面取得了最大的进展吗？中国。你知道冷聚变是做什么的吗？想想清洁核能吧。这是未来的未来。

Have you heard of Chinese car brands? There are at least 2 in the top 10 in the world right now, and all the others are have part Chinese ownership.

Look up a list of the top ports in the world. There are 11 Chinese ports in the top 18, including #1 which is Shanghai.

你听说过中国的汽车品牌吗？目前世界前10名中至少有2家，其他几个品牌也都有中国的参与。

看看世界顶级港口，前18名中有11个中国港口，排名第一的就是上海。

India is nowhere near all this.

We are far far away from energy independence. Our nuclear program hasn’t really reached anywhere near its potential. Nuclear just produces 3% of our energy requirement, with coal still being 72%.

印度离这一切还差得远。

印度离能源独立还很远。我们的核项目还没有真正发挥潜力。核能仅占我们能源需求的3%，而煤炭仍占72%。

We have low female participation in the workforce, one of the strongest factors in economic growth.

Our hospital beds to population ratio is among the lowest in the world, somewhere between 0.5 and 1. China has 4. The global average is 2.8.

印度女性劳动力的参与率很低，而这正是经济增长的最重要因素之一。

印度医院床位与人口比率全球最低，在0.5到1之间。中国是4。而全球平均水平是2.8。

India spends 2.9% of its GDP on education, which is at par with Pakistan. China is at 4%. Given the wide disparity in the GDP of both nations, China spends 6 times as much as India does on the education of every child.

While GDP, manufacturing capacity, etc. are lagging indicators of socio-economic growth, i.e. the growth has happened and the numbers prove that, health and education are leading indicators, i.e. they lead to growth.

印度的教育支出占GDP的2.9%，与巴基斯坦相当。中国是4%。鉴于两国GDP的巨大差距，中国在每个孩子的教育上的投入是印度的6倍。

虽然国内生产总值、制造能力等是社会经济增长的滞后指标，即增长先行发生，数字证明了这一点，但卫生和教育是领先指标，它们导致了增长。

On what basis are people saying that India is going to surpass China’s GDP in the near future? Based on current data and how things are at present, India is going to take at least 50 years to get to China’s levels.

People talk about demographic dividend. Demographic dividend works if the population is productive. For the labour to be productive, it must be skilled. For skilling, education is required.

人们凭什么说印度的GDP将在不久的将来超过中国？根据目前的数据和情况，印度至少需要50年才能达到中国的水平。

人们大谈特谈人口红利。如果人口具有生产力，人口红利就会起作用。劳动要有生产力，就必须是熟练的劳动。对于技能，教育又是必需的。

Finally, a quick thought experiment. Let’s say China’s GDP magically falls to 0. India is now far ahead of China. So what? Are we happy with that? Can you claim that a vast majority of Indians are happy with their lives if that happens?

NO.

Remember, these are exciting times in India and the future looks bright, but only if we keep asking how we can get better.

最后，做一个快速的思维实验。假设中国的GDP奇迹般地降为0。印度现在远远领先于中国。那又怎样？我们对此满意吗？如果这种情况真的发生，绝大多数印度人会对自己的生活感到满意吗？

不。

记住，印度现在处在激动人心的时刻，未来看起来很光明，但前提是我们不断反省，自己如何才能变得更好。