今年，中国GDP占美国GDP的比重已从70%降至64%。这是否意味着中国经济追不上美国了

This year, China's GDP has dropped from 70% to 64% of the U.S. GDP. Does this mean that China's economy can no longer catch up with the U.S. and that the U.S. 's containment efforts have been successful?

今年，中国GDP占美国GDP的比重已从70%降至64%。这是否意味着中国经济追不上美国了？美国的遏制措施成功了？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Joseph Loh

Based on conservative assumptions, the Lowy study concludes that the most likely outcome is a deceleration to 2%-3% average annual growth in real Chinese GDP through 2050, but doesn’t rule out rates of up to 5%. These averages include higher early growth rates and declining ones later. Starting with U.S. and Chinese GDP levels of $25.5 trillion and $17.9 trillion in 2022, with 2% U.S. and 2% Chinese real growth, U.S. GDP would be still 42% larger than Chinese GDP in 2050, but with 5% Chinese growth, Chinese GDP would be 58% larger (assuming constant real exchange rates).

根据保守的假设，罗伊研究所得出的结论是，最有可能的结果是到2050年，中国实际GDP的平均年增长率将降至2%-3%，但也不能排除高达5%的可能性。这些平均值包括早期较高的增长率和后来逐步下降的增长率。以2022年美国和中国各自的25.5万亿美元和17.9万亿美元GDP开始计算，如果美国和中国的实际增长率都为2%，那么到2050年，美国的GDP仍将比中国的GDP高出42%，但如果中国的增长率为5%，那么中国的GDP将比美国高出58%(假设实际汇率不变)。

Joshua Wong

If the Fed can raise interest rate to 30% by 2024 I think the US will be more successful.

Oh and the biggest victims of dollar strength are US allies.

UK - already seeing recession.

EU - widening gap with the US in GDP, remember the EU had bigger economy before the 2008 GFC, caused by subprime mortgage crisis in the US.

Japan - JPY depreciation by more than 30% against USD, yet exports remain soft.

South Korea - property bubble burst due to rate hikes following the US.

如果美联储能在2024年之前将利率提高到30%，我认为美国会更成功。

哦，美元走强的最大受害者是美国的盟友。

英国—经济已经开始衰退了。

欧盟—欧盟和美国的GDP差距越来越大，记住，在2008年全球金融危机之前，欧盟的经济规模更大，而这场危机正是由美国的次贷危机引起的。

日本—日元对美元贬值超过了30%，但出口至今依然疲软。

韩国—美国加息后，韩国房地产泡沫破裂。

Jack Crawford

They won’t catch up with us as long as we are free and they are controlled.

I recommend the book, Capitalism the Unknown Ideal, by Ayn Rand, a Russian-American philosopher, not an economist. It contains an essay, "What is Capitalism," because the author rightly holds that most people don't know what it is. She writes about laissez-faire capitalism, not the mixtures of capitalism, fascism, and socialism we have today. Also, she gives a moral defense of it, which nobody else does. It was published about 1964 so you can tell how prescient she was. Also check out YouTube to see her on the Johnny Carson show (3 times) in 1967. She wrote both fiction and non-fiction.

只要我们是自由的，他们就不会追上我们。

我推荐大家阅读一本名为《不为人知的理想—zb主义》的书，作者是一位俄裔美国哲学家，并非经济学家。书中有一篇文章，“什么是资本主义”，因为作者清楚地意识到大多数人并不知道什么是资本主义。她介绍了自由放任的资本主义，并非我们今天看到的资本主义、法西斯主义和社会主义的混合体。此外，她还为其做了道德辩护，她是独一份。这本书大约出版于1964年，所以你可以看出她多么具有先见之明。你还可以在YouTube上看到她在1967年参加了约翰尼·卡森的节目(3次)。她既写小说也写纪实文学。

Bob MacKenzie

The US has been pum the US economy up since 2008 with trillions of dollars created out of thin air. Remove all that GDP inflationary effect and you will have a US GDP of about 17 trillion.

If you believe the US GDP is built on productivity you are living in LA LA Land.

自2008年以来，美国一直无中生有，凭空生出了数万亿美元，想为美国经济注入活力。除去GDP通胀效应，美国的GDP只有17万亿。

如果你相信美国的GDP真的是建立在实际生产力上，那你就是生活在梦幻世界中了。

Tsing Hsiung Ye

Yes, if you don’t know some basic economics ABC.

I don’t plan to discuss the big picture, because I’m not majored in economics.

But I want to point it out that, does the GDP in the question refer to nominal/current-dollar GDP, or real/adjusted GDP, or PPP GDP?

是的，如果你连基本的经济学常识都不懂的话。

我不打算分析什么宏观经济，因为我的专业也并非经济学。

但我想确认一个问题，提问中说到的GDP指的是名义/现行美元GDP，还是指实际/调整后的GDP，又或是购买力平价GDP？

To solve domestic problems, the FedRev released tremendous fluid to the currency market in past three years, that’s why there’s an big inflation in America and every thing’s price rises.

Money supply will also push up GDP, because GDP is calculated by the prices of the general products and services. If the money supply increases but real products and services do not increase that much, the prices go up, inflation goes up, GDP also goes up.

为了解决国内问题，美联储在过去三年中向货币市场释放了大量的流动性资金，这就是美国出现严重的通货膨胀的原因，所有商品的价格都在上涨。

货币供给也会推高GDP，因为GDP是由一般商品和服务的价格计算的。如果货币供给增加，但实际商品和服务没有增加那么多，那么价格就会上涨，通胀上升，GDP也会上升。

To solve this problem, ecnomists introduced real GDP to reduce the influence of inflation, which means real GDP is usually smaller than nominal GDP.

America’s real GDP growth of 2022 is 2.1%, while its nominal GDP (current-dollar GDP) growth is 9.2% of same period.

Adjusting GDP needs a lot of time to re-calculate, therefore, when the question mentioned GDP of “this year” at the Dec. of 2023, it only means nominal GDP (prediction, for there’s half a month to go), not real GDP, which ususally reports in April of next year.

为了解决这个问题，经济学家引入了实际GDP的概念来降低通货膨胀的影响，这意味着实际GDP通常会低于名义GDP。

美国2022年的实际GDP增长率为2.1%，而名义GDP(现行美元GDP)同期增长率为9.2%。

调整后的GDP需要大量的时间来重新计算，因此，问题中提到2023年12月的“今年”GDP，只是指名义GDP(预测数值，毕竟离2024年还有半个月)，而非实际GDP，实际GDP通常会在次年4月公布。

But, if you take PPP GDP (purchasing power parity), that’s totally different.

Put it simple, PPP GDP gets rid of the influence from exchange rates. Like, if I buy a car at 30K in America but 200K in China, according to exchange rate, China’s price should be 28K, same car, different price, there must be something wrong. PPP GDP is to provide an equal calculation platform to assess the prices of each product and service.

Unfortunately, China’s PPP GDP had surpassed America’s since 2014, it’s 30.33T vs. 25.46T now. Check with World Bank

但是，如果你用购买力平价计算GDP，那就完全不同了。

简单地说，购买力平价GDP排除了汇率波动的影响。比如，如果我在美国购买一辆3万的车，在中国的售价为20万，但按照实际汇率，中国的售价应该是2.8万，同样的车，不同的价格，肯定有问题。购买力平价GDP就是为了评估每一种商品和服务的价格提供一个平等的计算平台。

但很不幸，自2014年以来，中国的购买力平价GDP已经超过了美国，分别为30.33万亿和26.46万亿。大家可以在世界银行上查询到

Aya Shawn

Let’s look at two data:

In 2022, China's GDP growth is expected to be 3%; in 2023, China's GDP growth is expected to be 5.2%

In 2022, U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.1%; in 2023, U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.6%

In the last statistical cycle, China's GDP accounted for about 70% of the United States. In the first quarter of 2023, this figure dropped to 64%.

让我们来查看两个数据:

2022年，中国GDP增速预计为3%；2023年，中国GDP增速预计为5.2%。

2022年，美国GDP增长率预计为2.1%；2023年，美国GDP增长预计为2.6%。

在上一个统计周期中，中国的GDP约占美国的70%。在2023年第一季度，这一数字降至64%。

Combining the growth rates of these two years, China's relative growth rate is higher than that of the United States, and its absolute growth figures are also greater than that of the United States.

Why has China’s GDP as a share of U.S. GDP actually declined?

The real reason lies in changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

综合这两年的增长率，中国的相对增长率高于美国，绝对增长率也大于美国。

为什么中国GDP占美国GDP的比重实际上下降了？

真正的原因在于美元汇率的变化。

As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates starting in 2022, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against global currencies continues to rise. This allows 100 US dollars to be exchanged for more renminbi (including more Korean won, Japanese yen, and euros).

Since China's GDP is denominated in the domestic currency, due to the appreciation of the US dollar, when it is converted into US dollars, the increase is partially offset by the appreciation of the US dollar. In the first three quarters of 2023, China's GDP growth rate in US dollars Only 0.5%.

随着美国联邦储备委员会从2022年开始持续上调利率，美元对世界各国货币的汇率持续上升。这使得100美元可以兑换更多的人民币(包括更多的韩元、日元和欧元)。

由于中国的GDP是以本币计价的，由于美元升值，在换算成美元时，增量部分就被美元升值所抵消了。2023年前三季度，以美元计算，中国GDP增速仅为0.5%。

The same situation applies to other countries. South Korea's GDP reached 2057.45 trillion won in 2021 and 2150.58 trillion won in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. However, based on the average exchange rate of Korean won to US dollars, it is equivalent to approxmately US$1.66 trillion, a decrease of more than US$130 billion compared to 2021. South Korea's GDP has actually declined!

What is even more interesting is Russia. Russia's GDP in 2022 will be 151,455.6 billion rubles, a decrease of 2.1% compared to 2021. However, because the Russian ruble has appreciated against the US dollar, if calculated in US dollars, Russia's GDP has increased significantly by 24.8%. !

其他国家的情况也一样。韩国的GDP在2021年达到2057.45万亿韩元，2022年达到2150.58万亿韩元，同比增长3.8%。但如果以韩元对美元的平均汇率计算，相当于1.66万亿美元，比2021年减少了1300亿美元以上。韩国的GDP实际上居然还下降了！

更有意思的是俄罗斯。2022年俄罗斯GDP为1514556亿卢布，比2021年下降2.1%。但由于俄罗斯卢布对美元升值，如果以美元计算，俄罗斯的GDP大幅增长了24.8%！

Therefore, the fundamental reason for this phenomenon is exchange rate changes. When exchange rates move too sharply, it becomes inaccurate to measure other countries' economic growth in U.S. dollar terms.

If you see headlines like this in some media: "China's GDP drops to 64% of the United States, China is about to collapse." You can laugh it off.

The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar is tidal. After it has experienced an appreciation space, it will inevitably usher in a depreciation space in the future. By then, the GDP of these target countries will "skyrocket."

因此，造成这种现象的根本原因是汇率的变化。当汇率波动过大时，用美元来衡量其他国家的经济增长就不准确了。

如果你在一些媒体上看到这样的标题：“中国的GDP下降到美国的64%，中国经济即将崩盘。”你大可以一笑而过。

美元的汇率波动很大。在经历了此轮升值之后，未来必然要迎来一轮贬值。届时，这些国家的GDP就将“飙升”了。

Chance Teo

Is the U.S. containment policy of China wrong?

I think the question should be, “why are the US’s attempts at containing China so futile?” instead.

If you asked me I’d credit one of the biggest sources to the US’s constant exaggerated anti-Chinese news articles.

美国对中国的遏制政策错了吗？

我认为问题应该改成，“为什么美国如此殚精竭虑地遏制中国？”

如果你问我，我会把最大的原因归功于美国不断夸大的反华新闻文章。

Why?

You see the American government and its media have this weird view where they actually believe that they can ‘deal damage’ to the China by constantly churning out anti-China articles usually with made up and inflated figures.

Sure, posting articles critical of China would sway the global audience to the side of the US but it definitely does not work on ordinary Chinese citizens. But in reality, doing so only further cements their faith in the government.

为什么?

你应该也发现了，美国政府和媒体有一种奇怪的观点，他们相信可以通过不断炮制反华文章来“伤害”中国，这些文章通常都是捏造和夸大的数据。

当然，发表反华文章会让全球读者倒向美国一边，但对普通中国公民绝对不起任何作用。实际上，这样做只会进一步巩固他们对中国的信心。

So you see, the more the US attacks the China ho to ‘bring it down’, the stronger it gets.

Isn’t that just ironic?

所以你看，美国越是攻击中国，希望“打倒中国”，中国就会变得越强大。

这难道不是很讽刺吗？

Richard Chiu

Is the U.S. containment policy of China wrong?

The one sided anti-China rhetoric in the media, government policies and strategy, social media is boosting Chinese nationalism.

The way American is trying to dictate Chinese’ future based on American value and American national interest is only causing Chinese to close rank.

美国对中国的遏制政策错了吗?