中国将在不久的将来成为超级大国，是神话还是现实

"China is becoming super power in near future" is this a myth or reality? Explain

中国将在不久的将来成为超级大国，是神话还是现实？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Peter Kaye

Yes China is a super power in every way, it certainly is NOT a myth, the biggest myth is the power and ability of the USA that is almost laughable, just look at their history, yes, they have an impressive military, ON PAPER, but effective? Just ask Vietnam and Afghanistan, they had six other countries hel them in Vietnam, mine included, and we still had our arses kicked, THATS WHY ITS A MYTH. China? Haven't lost a war yet, only when Japan invaded, but they only got a small part of the country. China had been robbed and depressed by Europeans for years, but that was years ago, TODAY? I would say they are number one

becoming a super power? Nope, they already are one. THAT IS REALITY. NASA begging for moon samples from China, China landed a rover on mars, China have their own space station, are they a super power? YES, with out a doubt

是的，中国在各方面都是超级大国，当然不是神话，最大的神话是美国，简直可笑，看看美国的历史吧，是的，他们的军队令人“印象深刻”，但就是只纸老虎吧？问问越南和阿富汗，美国在越南有六个国家相帮，包括我的国家在内，但我们仍然被揍得不轻，这就是所谓神话的原因。中国呢？

中国还没有打过一场败仗，中国是被日本入侵过，但日本只占领了中国的一小部分地区。中国被欧洲人掠夺和压制了很多年，但那是老黄历了，要说现在？我觉得中国就是世界第一，

正在成长为超级大国？不，中国已经是超级大国了。这就是现实。美国宇航局向中国讨要月球样本，中国的探测器成功在火星上登陆，中国拥有了自己的空间站，他们是超级大国吗？当然，毫无疑问。

Nexus

It has already achieved superpower status in economic terms. De-dollarization would be another step towards superpower status.

Its military ranks #2 globally and is growing rapidly.

China’s biggest problems are arguably geography, Taiwan, and its lack of allies. Reunification with Taiwan will solve the second problem and partially solve the first problem. Acquiring overseas military bases will also help level the playing field.

就经济而言，中国已经取得了超级大国的地位。中国的去美元化将是迈向超级大国地位的又一步。

中国的军事实力在全球排名第二，而且仍在迅速发展。

中国最大的问题可能在于地理位置、台湾问题和盟友少。统一台湾可以解决第二个问题，也可以部分解决第一个问题。在海外设立军事基地，也有助于中国开展公平竞争。

China will probably never woo the European Union away from the U.S., but it has been pushing the U.S. out of Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Of course, the U.S. has returned to the Middle East in the wake of Israel’s war against Gaza. However, that incident has forced China to choose sides, and it wisely sided with the Arab states, including Iran, which could become a major power itself.

中国可能永远无法让欧盟离开美国，但它一直在把美国赶出拉丁美洲、非洲和中东。当然，在以色列对加沙发动战争之后，美国又重回中东了。但这一事件迫使中国选择了立场，它明智地站在了阿拉伯国家一边，包括伊朗，它本身也可能成为一个大国。

Finally, the U.S. is hel China by shooting itself in the foot, from its wacko, self-destructive trade war with China, to its bewildering economic policies. Is Joe Biden deliberately trying to crash the economy?

Of course, the best proof is reality, and we probably won’t have long to wait. Check back at the end of 2025 and 2030. I think the world will soon be a very different place.

最后，美国正在帮中国搬起石头砸自己的脚，从它对中国采取的疯癫的、自绝后路的贸易战，到令人困惑的经济政策。乔·拜登是存心让美国经济崩盘吗？

当然，最好的证据是现实，我们可能不会等太久。等到2025年和2030年底再来看看。我想世界很快就会变成一个完全不同的地方。

Oskar Zepeda

China is the silent predator they’re watching how the rest of the world live in turmoil so they will be prepare for each country counter attack when the right time comes

中国是沉默的猎食者，他们随时观察其他国家的社会动荡，这样就能在适当的时机为每个国家的反击做好准备。

Becca Brooks

For years, the idea of China as a rising superpower has been a hotly debated topic. Some believe that the country's growing economic and military might will soon make it a dominant force on the world stage, while others argue that China's many challenges - from its aging population to its ongoing battle with corruption - will prevent it from achieving true superpower status.

But here's a surprising fact that many people don't know: China has actually been a superpower before. That's right - for much of human history, China was one of the most powerful nations in the world, with a vast empire that spanned multiple continents and a culture that influenced countless others.

多年来，中国是一个正在崛起的超级大国的观点一直是热议话题。有些人认为，中国不断增长的经济和军事实力很快就会使中国成为世界舞台上的主导力量，而另一些人则认为，中国面临的许多挑战—从人口老龄化到持续的反腐败斗争—将阻止它成为真正的超级大国。

但有一个不为人知的事实令人惊讶：历史上，中国就是一个超级大国。没错，在人类历史的大部分时间里，中国都是世界上最强大的国家之一，拥有横跨多块大陆的庞大帝国，中国的文化影响了无数国家。

According to historian John Keay, China's first period of superpower status began in the 3rd century BCE, when the country was united under the rule of the Qin dynasty. Over the next several centuries, China expanded its territory and influence through a combination of military conquest, diplomacy, and cultural exchange. By the time of the Tang dynasty in the 7th century CE, China was the world's largest economy and the center of a vast network of trade and cultural exchange known as the Silk Road.

根据历史学家约翰·凯伊的说法，中国首次成为超级大国是在公元前3世纪，当时中国在秦朝的统治下实现了统一。在接下来的几个世纪里，中国通过军事征服、外交和文化交流扩大了自己的领土和影响力。到了公元7世纪的唐朝时期，中国已经成为世界上最大的经济体，也是被称为丝绸之路的庞大贸易和文化交流网络的中心。

Of course, as with any superpower, China's rise was not without its challenges. The country faced numerous internal conflicts over the centuries, and its relationships with neighboring nations were often fraught with tension. But the fact remains that for much of human history, China was a superpower in every sense of the word.

当然，和所有超级大国一样，中国的崛起并非总是坦途。几个世纪以来，中国面临过无数的内部冲突，中国与邻国的关系经常充满紧张。但事实就是事实，在人类历史的大部分时间里，不论从何种角度看，中国就是一个超级大国。

So what about today? Is China on track to become a superpower once again? Many experts believe that it is. The country's economy has been growing at a rapid pace for decades, and its military capabilities are among the strongest in the world. China's global influence is also expanding, with the country taking an increasingly active role in international affairs and diplomacy.

如今呢，中国会再次成为超级大国吗？许多专家都是这么认为的。近几十年来，中国的经济一直在高速增长，中国的军事实力也是世界一流水平。随着中国在国际事务和外交中发挥着越来越积极的作用，中国的全球影响力也在不断扩大。

Of course, there are still many challenges that China will need to overcome in order to achieve true superpower status. But given the country's long history of power and influence, it's certainly not a far-fetched idea. Whether or not China becomes a superpower in the near future remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the story of China's rise and fall is a fascinating one that has captured the world's imagination for centuries.

当然了，想要成为真正的超级大国，中国仍需要克服许多困难。但考虑到中国悠久的大国和影响力历史，这绝非天方夜谭。中国能否在短期内就成为超级大国还有待观察，但有一点是肯定的：中国的兴衰是引人入胜的故事，几个世纪以来一直吸引着全世界的兴趣。

Jay Snead

China lacks every measure of a Superpower except one—It has a large economy. Of course, that economy is totally dependent on trade with the Superpower and its many allies.

中国并不符合超级大国的所有标准，除了一点除外—中国确实拥有庞大的经济规模。当然，中国经济完全依赖于与超级大国及其许多盟友的贸易。

The other measures of a Superpower are quite lacking. China has no powerful allies, only a few dependencies like North Korea, while the US has 50 formal military allies and 31 informal allies on every continent. The US has a navy and air force with global reach due to its 700 overseas bases, which China does not possess. The US Navy controls the sea lanes that China’s economy depends on. The US has unprecedented global political, military, financial, and cultural influence. It has the global reserve currency and most of the international banks. It has 410 Nobel Laureates to China’s 9. The US has more total wealth, more private wealth, the richest corporations and the largest gold reserves, by far.

至于超级大国的其他标准，中国都十分欠缺。中国没有强大的盟友，只有朝鲜等少数盟友，相较之下美国拥有50个正式的军事盟友和31个非正式盟友，遍布所有大洲。

由于拥有700个海外基地，美国拥有一支具有全球影响力的海军和空军，但中国没有海外军事基地。美国海军控制着中国经济所依赖的海上航道。

美国拥有无人能及的全球政治、军事、金融和文化影响力。美国拥有全球储备货币和大多数国际银行。

美国有410位诺贝尔奖得主，而中国只有9位。到目前为止，美国拥有更多的总财富、更多的私人财富、最富有的企业和最多的黄金储备。

China is an important economic power with 65% of the US GDP, but it has a long, long way to go before becoming the Superpower and the US is not going anywhere.

中国是一个重要的经济大国，GDP是美国的65%，但中国距离超级大国还有很长的路要走，而美国的地位还会继续稳固。

Robert Quek

It depends on what you understand by super power.

China is not the equal of the US in military power. China’s military has a different mission from that of the US. China’s military is to defend China, its territorial integrity and everything else that make up its sovereignty. In the defence of China, it is super power. No nation on earth is able to invade China and succeed.

这取决于你对超级大国的理解了。

中国的军事实力跟美国没法比。中国军队的使命与美国军队不同。中国军队是为了保家卫国，保卫领土完整和其他构成中国主权的一切。在守卫国家安全时，它是超级大国。地球上没有哪个国家能够入侵中国并取得成功。

China is also a nuclear power and has the full capability to deliver a devastating blow against its enemy in the event it is attacked. Only China knows the size of its arsenal, how far short or at all, in comparison with US and Russia. China was already nuclear during the Mao era. Its industrial capacity then was a pigmy versus what it has now. This suggests that the size of its arsenal is not limited by capacity and capability, only by how China sees what it needs for its security. In this respect, China is also super power.

But China has no military capability to invade other lands or to indulge in any serious foreign adventures. China is thus not a military super power in the full meaning of super power.

中国也是一个核大国，如果受到攻击，中国完全有能力对敌人发起毁灭性打击。只有中国知道自己的军火储备规模，究竟和美国、俄罗斯的差距有多大，或者是不是压根就没有。中国在建国初期就已经拥有核武器了。当时中国的工业能力和现在简直就是云泥之别。这表明，中国核武储备的规模与工业能力和军事力量无关，只和中国对国防需求的高低有关。在这方面，中国也是超级大国。

但中国没有入侵其他国家领土的军事能力，也没有兴趣在其他国家搞事情。因此，中国不是一个完全意义上的超级军事大国。

China is already an economic super power. Its GDP in nominal terms is the world’s second largest, but the largest in PPP terms. It is the world’s manufacturing hub, the only country whose manufactures cover the entire range of the UN Level 4 ISIC. It is a leader in construction and infrastructures, in full display in China and in the BRI countries, from HSR to roads and bridges, and communication and power networks. It is a leading technology nation, whose capabilities include supercomputers, GPS, space station and space exploration, and the leader in many foundation technologies like 5G, AI application, and green technologies. It is an economic super power in the here and now, not sometime in the future.

中国现在已经是一个经济超级大国了。中国的名义GDP排名世界第二，但按购买力平价计算已经是世界第一。中国是世界制造业中心，是制造业完整涵盖了联合国国际标准产业分类4级的唯一一个国家。在中国和“一带一路”沿线国家，从高铁到道路桥梁，从通信和电力网络，中国在建筑和基础设施方面都处于全球领先地位。中国是一个技术领先的国家，拥有包括超级计算机，GPS，空间站和太空探索等实力，并且在5G，人工智能应用和绿色技术等许多基础技术方面都处于全球领先地位。中国现在已经是一个经济超级大国了，无需等到未来某个时候。

China also shines in national unity and discipline, important attributes of super-power-ism. They were amply displayed in the outcomes of its implementation of strict controls over Covid, the 3-year of zero-Covid policy, and the quick ext from this policy. The trust the people have for the Government is remarkable. CPC has just completed its Two Sessions meeting. Its focus is to grow the economy. Events going forward will show its national unity, the people’s discipline, and their trust for the government.

中国在民族团结和遵纪守法方面的表现也很亮眼，这是超级大国主义的重要特征。这一点充分体现在严控疫情、清零政策实施3年、快速退出的成果中。中国人民对政府非常信任。中国重点就是发展经济。未来的发展将展示中国的民族团结、人民纪律和人民对政府的信任。

Dominik Schachtsiek

Well - I would say, that it is reality - that they are already now a super power.

Economically they are probably already no.2 in the world.

Militarily they have the second highest spending (after the US), and probably they have capabilities which are only second to the United States.

嗯，我会说，这就是现实—中国现在已经是一个超级大国了。

从经济上说，中国可能是全球第二了。

从军事上说，中国的军费支出是世界第二高(仅次于美国)，他们的军事实力可能仅次于美国。