Why does the West hype up India every decade? Is there a possibility of India surpassing China?

为什么西方每十年就炒作一次印度？印度有可能超过中国吗？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Bill Chen

Because China and India are 1.4 billion and no other country come close.

India is the ONLY country capable of stirring the imagination when it comes to replacing the Chinese labor pool in service of first world prosperity.

At first glance, India is an even better alternative to China, because India is only a third the size, but has richer lands. India, after all, was the supplier of the opium that Britain and later, America, used to flood the Chinese market while banning its consumption within the Raj to protect the supply chain.

因为中国和印度有14亿人口，遥遥领先于其他国家。

在取代中国的劳动力资源方面，印度是唯一有可能的国家。

乍一看，印度是比中国更好的选择，因为印度的面积只有中国的三分之一，但土地更加肥沃。毕竟印度曾经是鸦片的供应国，英国和后来的美国曾经将鸦片大量输入中国市场，同时在印度禁止鸦片消费，以保障供应。

The reason why the Brits pushed opium was their running out of silver to pay for the tea and China (porcelain) that was prized by British elite.

Not too different from the 21st century calculus isn’t it?

Unfortunately, there won’t be a repeat, not this generation (the next 30 years) and probably, the next one as well.

英国人推广鸦片，是因为他们为了茶叶和瓷器用光了白银储备，英国贵族离不开中国的茶叶和瓷器。

和21世纪不会有太大区别，不是吗？

不幸的是，这种情况不会重演，这一代人(未来30年)不会，下一代也可能不会。

India today has incredible challenges of providing food, clean water and jobs. 800m people (that’s almost the entire “west”) rely on food subsidies, while India is the number one contributor to global poverty today.

Besides, India isn’t one nation but many tribes speaking a hundred languages, only sharing the same currency.

India will march to its own pace, the rhythm making little sense, even to the Indian people themselves.

今天的印度在食物供给、清洁水源和就业方面仍面临着难以置信的困难。多达8亿印度人(这几乎等同于整个“西方”世界的人口)依赖粮食补贴，印度是当今全球贫困的头号贡献者。

此外，印度不是一个国家，而是使用一百种语言的众多部落，他们只是使用同了一种货币而已。

印度会按照自己的节奏发展，但对印度人民自己来说，节奏也没有太大意义。

L.K.

A boring question.

The development of a country is not to surpass anyone else. It's about making the country richer and stronger, and lives of people in the country getting better.

这真是一个无聊的问题。

一个国家的发展不是为了超越别人，而是为了让这个国家更富裕、更强大，让这个国家的人民生活得更好。

John Wong

India had been in front of China before in term of GDP and other aspect when China was war torn and its infrastructures were damaged by war, many had die during the wars. China had caught up and exceeded India and many other nations to get to the current position. India has a long way to go…

However, “Never say Never” … but a lot of things need to happen before the possibility of surpassing China is realized. ‘China’ needs to do stupid things first among the “lot of things”.

当中国饱受战争蹂躏，基础设施被战争摧毁，许多人在战争中丧生的时候，印度在GDP和其他方面都领先于中国。但现在中国已经赶上并超过了印度和许多其他国家，获得了如今的地位。印度还有很长的路要走…

我们必须“永不放弃”，但在我们真的超越中国之前，还需要完成许多事情。在这“许多事情”之中，“中国”得先干点傻事自乱阵营。

Emmanuel-Francis Nwaolisa Ogomegbunam

The current optimism about India is because she is at an economic stage that American asset managers find familiar. Compared to China, the Indian E-Commerce, Entertainment, Electronics, and general Consumer sectors are wide open. Since they’ll be starting from a low base, a dollar invested promises multiples in return. All at relatively little risk compared to slower economies in the rest of the world. The hype you hear is animal spirits roaring at the prospect of easy money. Buy an ETF and ride the wave!

India will not surpass China any more than China surpasses the USA in the lifetime of anyone reading this.

目前对印度的这种乐观情绪，是因为印度正处于美国资产管理公司熟悉的有利可图的阶段。与中国相比，印度的电子商务、娱乐、电子产品和一般消费行业是非常开放的。因为起步较低，每一美元的投资将带来数倍的回报。跟其他增速放缓的经济体相比，相应的风险也都更小。你听到的所有炒作是对轻松赚钱的前景的本能咆哮。购买ETF，乘风破浪！

读到这篇文章的所有人，在有生之年内都不会看到印度超过中国的一幕，就像中国不会超过美国一样。

We have the precedent of three centuries of industrial growth at this point. Compounding capital formation and technological development gives frontrunners a nigh-impenetrable moat. That applies to cities, regions and countries. Korea is only now reaching West-European living standards, and the Koreans achieved the greatest economic miracle in human history.

We’ll be dead by the time all this talk of surpassing or whatnot even matters.

在这一点上，我们有持续了三个世纪的工业发展作为可参考的先例。资本形成和技术发展相结合，为领先者提供了一条几乎不可逾越的护城河。这适用于各个城市、地区和国家。韩国现在才刚刚达到西欧国家的生活水平，而韩国人已经创造了人类历史上最伟大的经济奇迹了。

说什么超越别人之类的话，等到那个时候，我们早就拜拜了。

The good news is that a steadily growing economy boosts everyone’s living standards. If China plays her cards right, Indian students might be for Chinese universities what Chinese students were for unis in Europe and the USA. Indian shoppers will crowd Shanghai streets for their favourite Chinese brands. Wouldn’t that be a sight?! Less of this ridiculous sni. Let’s all relax and get rich together.

好消息是，稳步增长的经济提高了每个人的生活水平。如果中国把自己的牌打好，印度学生对中国大学的影响可能就像中国学生对欧洲和美国大学的影响一样。印度购物者将涌向上海街头，购买他们最喜欢的中国品牌。那岂不妙哉？！这种荒谬的诽谤就算了吧。我们都放松些，一起发财吧。

John Tan

Many who knows India knows that their inability to resolve their problems with Caste, Class, Race, Language & Religion would be holding them back for a long time.

许多了解印度的人都知道，他们无法解决种姓、阶级、种族、语言和宗教问题，这些因素会在很长时间内阻碍印度的发展。

Freddie Chen

Why does the West hype up India every decade?

Because that India has the potential.

Yes, according normal logic and objective economic rules, it has potential, large potential.

It has big population and wide land.

That means large working force and big consumer market.

The last one who rised up is very similar, China.

为什么西方每十年就炒作一次印度？

因为印度很有潜力。

是的，根据正常的逻辑和客观的经济规律，印度是有潜力的，而且潜力很大。

印度人口众多，土地广阔。

这意味着印度拥有庞大的劳动力和庞大的消费市场。

上一个崛起的国家也有着这些相似之处，那就是中国。

So, there is no reason for western economist or politicians not telling you that India will be next China or say next strong global economy driving force.

Is there a possibility of India surpassing China?

If you learnt Marxst philosophy or some simple dialectical materialism, you will believe that nothing is absolute and ultimate.

Thus, posssibility is a meaningless question. Yes, everything has possibility. Big or small.

所以，西方经济学家或政治家有理由告诉你，印度将成为下一个中国，或者说印度将成为下一个强大的全球经济的驱动势力。

印度有可能超过中国吗？

如果你学过主义哲学或一些简单的辩证唯物主义，你就会相信没有什么是绝对的。

因此，可能性就是一个毫无意义的问题。是的，一切皆有可能，只是大小而已。

Potential is potential. You can have potential for decades, hundreds years, it will remain potential sometimes. XD

Similar is not the same. Actually, India and China are very very very different. XD

潜力就是潜力。你可以在几十年、几百年里都拥有潜力，可能也只是潜力。

相似并不等同于完全相同。实际上，印度和中国是非常非常不同的。

Krishnamurthi Menon

The West has done nothing of the kind every decade. India is the last cab off the rank in a re aligning world. The US has no more friends. It turns to India. And in India it has a merchant willing to sell its wares and services to the Americans for a price. If it is hype the wheels will fall off the wagon in due course.

The Indians have followed the romances between China and the West and in particular with the USA. India is an ancient civilization that has endured all the punishments the West can dish out to it. It knows how to deal with them.

西方并没有每十年就这样炒作一次。美国已经没有朋友了，于是它盯上了印度。印度会有商人愿意把它的商品和服务卖给美国人的。

印度人围观过中国与西方，尤其是和美国之间的罗曼史。印度是一个古老的文明国家，忍受了西方能施加给它的所有惩罚，印度知道该如何处理。

When you suggest the possibility of India surpassing China, you must be clear as to what you mean by surpassing China. China is China. It has its own set of priorities. India is India likewise. Frustrated ill informed narrow minded journalists create these terms and comparisons. They have no meaning.

当你说印度有可能超越中国时，你必须清楚自己所说的超越中国是什么意思。中国是中国，中国有自己的优先发展方向。印度是印度。都是灰心丧气、见多识广、心胸狭窄的记者创造出的名词和对比，完全没有意义。

Khengchat Ng

The West hypes up India all the time, not only every decade. It has Westminster de ocracy (the world’s largest, no less). It has lingering British Commonwealth values. It has a large proportion of passable English speakers. The West does not want a failed India reflecting badly on them. It wants to reassure themselves, India and the world that everything is okay and will be more okay for the future. Like a fortune teller, they don't tell the customer unpleasant things. India will progress once it wakes up from that continuous teacher’s pet praising and work things out by themselves. Whether it will surpass China will also depend on how China progresses.

西方是长期一直在炒作印度问题，不是每十年炒作一次。印度拥有威斯敏斯特皿煮(世界上最大的皿煮)。它有着根深蒂固的英联邦价值观。它有大量人口使用英语。西方不希望印度落魄，留下不好的印象。印度想让自己、印度和世界放心，一切都很好，未来还会更好。就跟算命先生一样，他们不会跟顾客说不好的事。只要印度从老师哄小孩般一刻不停的表扬中清醒过来，自己解决问题，印度就能取得进步。但印度能否超越中国，还取决于中国如何进步。

大人 李

India can become the third largest country in the world, but it is still very difficult to surpass China and the United States

印度有望成为世界第三大国，但要超越中国和美国仍然非常困难。

R.M.L.

Well, according to Indian Quora user Os Jose, India will be driving the global economy this year. He says that India will be the biggest contributor to global growth and that we should forget about China because China lies about its GDP while India is honest. Many Indians share his views.

The USA thinks that it can control India while it can't control China, but from how India kept financing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are American politicians really such dullards? Unfortunately, yes.

根据印度Quora用户Os Jose的说法，印度今年将会是推动全球经济的动力。他说印度将成为全球增长的最大贡献者，我们应该忘记中国，因为中国在GDP上造假了，但印度没有。许多印度人都赞同他的观点。

美国认为它控制不了中国，但可以控制印度，不过如果看看印度是如何资助俄罗斯出兵乌克兰，美国政客真的有如此愚蠢吗？很遗憾，确实是的。

Vasu Pandian

It is a wish of the west that as de ocratic country India should prosper and the hype relates to that. China is far ahead of India in terms of resources, technological advancement, military strength, best governance though in an way, less corruption, less issues to tackle locally. At 8% growth India would become an upper middle-income country by 2033-34, and reach China's current economic size by 2043-44.

作为皿煮国家，西方国家认为印度应该繁荣，所以他们围绕这一目的进行炒作。中国在资源、技术进步、军事实力、全球最优秀的行政治理、更少的腐败、更少的地方问题等方面都远远领先于印度。按照8%的增长率，印度将在2033- 2034年成为中高收入国家，并在2043- 2044年达到中国目前的经济规模。

Patrick Chong

First question: US wet dream since they cannot compete with China.

Second question: Wet dream of India.

第一个问题：美国在做梦呢，因为他们无法与中国竞争。

第二个问题：印度在做梦呢。

Ashraf Chopan

Will India overtake China?

印度会超过中国吗?

Overtake in what? Population wise, Yes India will soon overtake China as the most populous nation. Militarily, not in the foreseeable future.

Economically, well this is a straightforward guess. My guess is NO.

印度要拿什么来超？就人口而言，是的，印度将很快超过中国，成为全球人口最多的国家。但在军事上，短期内都不可能。

经济上，这是一个简单的猜测。我猜也是不可能的。

Indian media and Governmentmay be chest thum about economy and GDP figures. But consider this (if you put GDP figures as the ultimate truth about economy) if India is growing by 7% rate and China by 6.5%, that still means China is increasing its economy 4-5 times than that of India because it is 4-5 times bigger than India's economy for the start.

For India to overtake China economically, India must grow by double digits and China should contract to 1% or so.

印度媒体和政府可能会对经济和GDP数据拍胸脯夸下海口。但你认真想想(如果你把GDP数据作为经济的终极真相)，如果印度增长7%，中国增长6.5%，这意味着中国的经济增长将达到印度的4-5倍，因为它现在已经比印度经济大4-5倍了。

为了在经济上超过中国，印度必须以两位数的速度增长，同时中国的增长速度还要减慢到1%左右。

Don't buy the Western media rants about Collapsing China, because it isn't. Chinese economy is no doubt slowing but India's economy is also not gallo. It may be growing a tad faster but will it sustain what China did is an open question for years to come.

不要相信西方媒体整天嚷嚷的中国崩溃论，因为事实并非如此。毫无疑问，中国经济正在放缓，但印度经济也并没有高速疾驰。印度的增长速度可能会比中国稍快一些，但在未来几年能否像中国那样保持，是一个悬而未决的问题。