论经济实力，中国能和法国抗衡吗

Can China counter French economic might?

论经济实力，中国能和法国抗衡吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Abner Kim

Do you mean that China, the second largest economy in the world, can compete with France's economy?

你的意思是说，论经济实力，中国作为世界第二大经济体，能不能和法国竞争吗?

Gilbert K

China would be happy if the French had more economic might.

That’s because the French would have more buying power. Which means that the French would buy more goods.

Which means that the French would buy more goods from ____________ .

如果法国的经济实力能更强大些，中国会很高兴的。

因为法国人就能拥有更强的购买力，意味着法国人能购买更多的商品。

也就意味着法国人会从____________购买更多的商品。

Kyo Syа(秋霞)

China has no interest in economic confrontation with any country, and if such a confrontation occurs, the initiator will not be China.

Our belief is that "we will not take the initiative to fire the first shot, nor will we allow the enemy to fire the second shot." This is true in war, and it is also true in economics.

中国并不想和任何国家发生经济对抗，如果真的发生这种对抗，也绝不会是中国挑起的。

我们的信条是“不主动挑事，但也绝不怕事”。在战场上是如此，在经济上也是如此。

We are not bullies, but have been forced to face provocations all along.

We haven't had any direct conflict with France for more than a hundred years, and I believe it's unlikely to happen in the near future. In fact, if I remember correctly, we are currently cooperating in the cultural field.

我们不是恶霸，我们一直被迫面对挑衅。

一百多年来，我们没有和法国发生过任何直接冲突，我相信在不久的将来也不太可能发生。事实上，如果我没记错的话，中法两国目前正在文化领域进行合作。

Peter Kaye

What economic might, might that be ? And why on earth would they want to counter that? For what reason? China is happy for every and any country to do well, the richer they are the more they can buy from China, there is nothing to counter,

什么经济实力呢？他们到底为什么要对抗呢？为了什么？世界各国都好好的，中国会很开心的，各国越富裕，向中国购买的商品就越多，有什么好抵制的。

Li Pengii

French economic might?

You’re kidding me right? France relies on looting former French African colonies.

France just got expelled from Niger threatening their energy supplies too (heavy reliance on nuclear).

France’s ministers are YOUNG. Their current prime minister is 34.

He’s literally a career politician having done nothing else.

法国的经济实力？

你是在开玩笑吧？法国全靠掠夺前法属非洲殖民地。

法国刚刚被尼日尔驱逐，能源供应都有问题了(严重依赖核能)。

法国的部长们都太年轻了，现任总理才34岁。

他就是一个职业政治家。

Adnan

China is a major global economic power, but comparing it directly to France involves different strengths. China's scale, manufacturing prowess, and export market are substantial, but France's strength lies in its innovation, luxury goods, and certain high-value industries. Both have different economic focuses, so direct comparison in terms of countering each other's economic might might not fully capture their diverse strengths.

中国是一个全球经济大国，但若要将中国和法国直接对比，牵涉到两国各自不同的优势。中国的规模、制造能力和出口市场都非常巨大，而法国的优势在于创新、奢侈品和某些高价值产业。两国有着不同的经济侧重点，因此在彼此经济实力方面进行直接比较，可能无法充分体现两国的不同优势。

Jacques Văn Khải

What is the relationship like between China and France?

中法两国关系如何？

Between France and China, there exsts a special relations though.

France views China as a very important and significant trade partner, and China views France exact the same. Since France has many benefits in Chinese market, France also invites China into its market as well.

However, back to the past, it was not really happy. France invaded Indochina which led to Sino-French War and France defeated Qing China on a very controversial war. As for the French victory, France also assisted Britain, Russia, Japan and the U.S. to invade and divide China into their own influence.

中法两国之间存在着特殊的关系。

法国视中国为非常重要的贸易伙伴，中国也视法国为非常重要的贸易伙伴。由于法国在中国市场有利可图，法国也欢迎中国进入法国市场。

但历史上两国之间并不愉快。法国曾经入侵中印半岛，导致了中法战争，法国在一场争议极大的战争中打败了清政府。法国还协助英、俄、日、美等国侵略并瓜分了中国，建立了自己的势力范围。

At WWII, France surrendered Germany thus led France to become irrelevant.

Today, France and China need each other for the sake of its own economies. France is much higher and more developed than China, but China is the world’s 2nd largest economy so France can’t ignore China.

In short: La Chine est le gros morceau! China is a big chunk that France cannot ignore!

在第二次世界大战中，法国战败，向德国投降，法国的影响力开始下降。

今天，法国和中国为了各自的经济而抱团。法国比中国发达得多，但中国是世界第二大经济体，所以法国无法忽略中国。

简而言之：La Chine est le grogromorceau ! 中国是法国无法忽略的的大块头！

Yvan Testu

Why the French economy is not growing?

为什么法国经济停滞不前？

France is a strange mixture of capitalism from Napoleon III era ( huge conglomerate built during Napoleon’s era has only been dismantled recently like Générale des Eaux ), an example of this old capitalism survival was the nicknamed “Capitalisme de la Barbichette” that prevailed after Mitterrand started his program of privatisation, and a social environment built the hard way by the great confrontation ( like strike of Fourmies ) between the capitalists and the socialists that led to have the Front Populaire.

法国是拿破仑三世时代zb主义的怪异混合体(拿破仑时代建立的大型企业集团最近才被拆分，比如通用水务公司)，这种旧资本主义体制下幸存下来的一个例子是绰号“大胡子资本主义”，在密特朗开始推行他的私有化计划后盛行起来的。资本家和社会主义者之间的对抗(如富尔米罢工)导致了人民阵线的形成。

The ruling élite succeded to establish a massive set of rules that could make a balance between the divergent capitalism and socialism necessities.

French welcome changes as soon as things remain the same.

On one side, french population is prone to make general strikes and to fall into revolution, making the reform process a delicate task, on the other side entrepreneurs are prone to vote with the feet and to relocate their business somewhere else.

精英统治成功地打造了一套繁冗的规则，可以在资本主义和社会主义之间的分歧中取得平衡。

只要这一点不会改变，法国人欢迎一切变化。

一方面，法国民众经常发动大罢工，经常举行革命，使得改革成了一项脆弱的任务，另一方面，企业家喜欢用脚投票，将企业迁往其他地方。

Anonymous

Why the French economy is not growing?

为什么法国经济停滞不前？

First of all, the French economy is not growing at a phenomenal rate, that's true, but it absorbed the financial crisis much better than many other EU members. Growth is still very weak - however similar trends are currently a common thing across Europe. Now if you wish to compare the current growth of the French economy to other economies, keep in mind that the numbers still look quite solid. Public deficits are high, although resorbing. Public debt is high as well, but comparable to the one in the UK. Public investment is much better in France than it is in financially orthodox nations like Germany. This last point is important because infrastructure is a key component. Countries that do not invest much in public infrastructure might be putting their businesses at risk.

首先，法国经济没有以惊人的速度增长，这是事实，但和其他欧盟成员国相比，法国更好地消化了金融危机的恶果。虽然法国的经济增长仍然非常疲软—但目前整个欧洲都是如此。

现在，如果你想将法国经济目前的增长与其他经济体进行比较，要记住法国的经济数据还是不错的。

公共赤字虽然很高，但已逐步下降。公共债务也很高，但与英国相当。法国的公共投资比德国等金融正统国家要大得多。

最后一点很重要，因为基础设施是非常重要的。那些在公共基础设施上投资较少的国家可能会让商业活动面临风险。

David Phillips

Why is China doing so well Economically lately?

近年来中国在经济上的表现为什么如此亮眼？

Part of it is cultural. Chinese are frugal, they work incredibly hard and they value education to a greater degree than those of us in the West. The leadership has also made a careful study over many years of what countries; specifically America did to become successful.

I was at a restaurant in Northern China with some friends in the mid 90’s. It turned out that the folks sitting at the next table included the Vice Minister of Finance. One of my friends must have told him that I had a History Geography background when he was curious. He asked me a question; “How did Canada get to be so rich?” he couldn’t have cared less why I was there.

部分原因在于文化。中国人很节俭，工作很努力，他们比西方人更重视教育。中国领导层也仔细研究了某些国家多年的发展，尤其是美国的成功之道。

90年代中期，我和一些朋友在中国北方的一家餐馆吃饭。后来我们发现邻桌吃饭的人里就有财政部副部长。我朋友应该是在他表示好奇的时候跟他说我有历史地理背景的。他问了我一个问题：“加拿大是如何变得如此富裕的？”“他一点也不在乎我为什么会出现在那里。

These days, everything major the chinese supports is either geared to beating the Americans or undermining their economy or military in some way. Americans and the rest of us in the West get sucked in by the promise of the vast Chinese market time after time; and longterm it always seems to end badly.

如今，中国的主要目的要么是为了击败美国人，要么以某种方式破坏他们的经济或军事。美国人和其他西方国家的人一次又一次地被中国庞大的市场所吸引；但长期来看，结局似乎总是很糟糕。

Steve

Why the French economy is not growing?

为什么法国经济停滞不前？

When 70% of college grads want to work for the government upon graduation, economic expansion will be a challenge.

Labor laws are a real obstacle. Firms are reluctant to grow (hire) and invest because it can be extremely difficult to lay off or fire workers.

当70%的大学生毕业后只想进入政府部门工作时，经济发展就遇到了极大的困难。

劳动法是一个现实的障碍。公司不愿意增加(雇佣)和投资，因为裁员或解雇员工非常困难。

Ken Oshiro

What is the problem in the economy of France?

法国经济的问题是什么？

There are two major problems in French economy : employment and public debt.

法国经济存在两个主要问题：就业和公共债务。

Employment

France has a high structural unemployment. Since 1996 it has never been lower than 7%, ans usually hangs around 9%.

就业

法国的结构性失业率很高。自1996年以来，失业率从未低于7%，常年徘徊在9%左右。

Unemployment rate since 1996, note that the chart begins at 7% !

Combine that with a below average employment rate of around 64% (OECD average is 67%), and you understand why there is definitely an issue.

图中显示了1996年以来的失业率，请注意统计的起点是7% !

再加上低于平均水平的约64%的就业率(经合组织的平均就业率为67%)，你就明白为什么肯定存在问题了。

Employment Rate, 2015, France is in magenta, black is OECD average, blue is Germany (75.3%).

What do all that mean ? Well out of all the population fewer french people are active compared to the rest of OECD (have a job or look for one), and among them fewer french people do have a job.

就业率，法国如红色所示，经合组织的平均值如黑色所示，德国(75.3%)如蓝色所示。

这是什么意思呢？与经合组织其他国家相比，积极就业的法国人更少(有工作或找工作)，其中有工作的法国人更少。

It means that the production effort is made by the most productive people, and the rest is excluded from the labor market. This has many impacts, but most importantly it makes a part of the population dependant on public benefits since they don’t have income.

Why ? High minimum wages, low weekly work hours, below average industrial production, education not giving skills required in the labor market, lack of capital in production investment… that list can go on.

这意味着工作都是由最有生产力的人完成的，其余的人都被排除在劳动力市场之外。这会带来很多影响，最重要的就是它会使一部分人因为没有收入而依赖公共福利。

为什么？最低工资高，每周工作时间短，工业生产低于平均水平，学校教育没有提供劳动力市场所需技能，生产投资不足……等等。

2. Public debt

In part because of the previous point but also because of an expanded bureaucracy, the french State spend more money than average.

2. 公共债务

部分原因出自第一点，但也因为官僚机构的扩大，法国政府的开支高于平均水平。

General Government Spending, 2015, France in blue (56.7%), Germany in red (43.9%)

And this had led to an higher public debt :

这是一般政府支出统计图，，法国(56.7%)为蓝色所示，德国(43.9%)为红色所示。

这导致了公共债务居高不下：

General government debt as % of GDP, 2015.

This is fine for now as interest rates are low, but this could prove devastating should they increase in the future.

这是一般政府债务占GDP的百分比。

目前利率很低，情况还好，但如果未来利率上升，这可能会导致毁灭性的结果。

Conclusion

Of course there are many other issues : housing, education, energy etc… but I feel these are the two most important.

With this analysis, it explains easily why the Frenchs decided to elect Macron. He focused on labor markets issues as a minister and its centrist agenda is favorable to a reduction of deficit.

结论

当然还有很多其他问题:住房、教育、能源等，但我觉得这两个是最重要的。有了上述分析，就很容易解释为什么法国人之前会选举马克龙了。他在担任部长期间专注于劳动力市场问题，他的政治中立也有利于减少赤字。