为什么德国是俄乌战争中仅次于乌克兰的最大输家

Why is Germany the biggest loser after Ukraine in the war?

为什么德国是战争中仅次于乌克兰的最大输家？

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以下是Quora网友的评论：

Mehboob Ahmed

While it's true that both Ukraine and Germany have suffered immensely due to the ongoing war, declaring one as the "biggest loser" is a complex and potentially misleading statement. Each nation faces unique challenges and losses, and comparing them directly might not accurately reflect the full picture.

Here's a breakdown of the negative impacts on both countries:

虽然乌克兰和德国确实都因持续的战争而遭受了巨大的损失，但要说哪一方是“最大的输家”，可能难以分说，而且容易误导读者。每个国家都面临着独特的挑战，遭受了损失，直接比较可能不够准确，也不够全面。

以下是对两国的负面影响：

Ukraine:

Humanitarian crisis: Thousands of civilians have been killed, millions displaced, and the country's infrastructure heavily damaged, creating a severe humanitarian crisis.

Economic devastation: The war has crippled Ukraine's economy, causing immense GDP losses, disrupting trade, and leaving long-term scars on recovery.

Territorial loss: Russia has occupied parts of Ukrainian territory, leading to political and territorial complexties with significant ongoing consequences.

乌克兰：

人道主义危机：成千上万的平民被杀害，数百万人流离失所，基础设施严重受损，造成了严重的人道主义危机。

经济破坏：这场战争重创了乌克兰的经济，造成了巨大的GDP损失，扰乱了贸易，给经济复苏留下了长期的伤痕。

领土损失：俄罗斯占领了乌克兰的部分领土，导致政治和领土的复杂性，并带来严重的持续后果。

Germany:

Economic repercussions: As a major economic power, Germany is significantly impacted by sanctions imposed on Russia and war-related disruptions to supply chains, impacting trade, energy security, and overall economic stability.

Reputational damage: Germany's close economic ties with Russia and initial hesitation to provide military aid to Ukraine have drawn criticism, impacting its international image and influence.

Security concerns: The war has highlighted vulnerabilities in Europe's security framework, raising concerns for Germany's long-term stability and defense preparedness.

德国：

经济影响：作为一个经济大国，德国受到了对俄罗斯施加的制裁和战争导致的供应链中断的严重影响，贸易、能源安全和整体经济稳定受到了影响。

声誉受损：德国与俄罗斯的密切经济关系以及战争初期不愿向乌克兰提供军事援助的表现招致了批评，影响了德国的国际形象和影响力。

安全担忧：这场战争凸显了欧洲安全架构的脆弱，引发了对德国长期稳定和国防准备的担忧。

Ultimately, focusing on who is the "biggest loser" risks minimizing the immense suffering of both nations and neglecting the broader geopolitical implications of the war. Instead, it's crucial to acknowledge the unique challenges they both face and strive for swift and peaceful resolution to prevent further loss of life and devastation.

Remember, the human cost of the war is far greater than any economic or political losses. Both Ukraine and Germany, along with many other countries and individuals, bear the brunt of this conflict. Let's focus on supporting peace efforts and rebuilding rather than comparing their suffering.

最终，纠结于谁是“最大的输家”，可能无法减轻两国的痛苦，而且还会忽视战争带来的更广泛的地缘政治影响。相反，重中之重是要承认他们都正面临的独特挑战，并努力迅速和平地解决问题，以防止进一步的伤亡和破坏。

请记住，战争造成的人员伤亡远远大于任何经济或政治损失。乌克兰和德国，以及许多其他国家和个人，都受到这场冲突的影响。我们应该把重点放在支持和平努力和重建上，而不是比较他们的苦难。

James

In the first place, they have a big border with Russia and a history that’s not exactly friendly.

In the second place, they traditionally have gotten most of their energy from Russia, which leaves them in a very vulnerable position

首先，他们与俄罗斯有很长的边境线，而且两国在历史上的关系并不友好。

其次，他们传统上从俄罗斯获取大部分能源，因此处境十分被动。

Adam Wu

The biggest loser of this war is Russia.

The next biggest loser is Ukraine.

Yes the long term fallout of this war is not likely to be good for Germany, but they’re not getting their territory invaded or hundreds of thousands of their people killed and tens of thousands of pieces of military equipment destroyed.

这场战争最大的输家是俄罗斯。

第一个最大输家是乌克兰。

是的，这场战争的长期后果可能对德国不太有利，但德国的领土并没有被敌军入侵，没有大量民众伤亡，军事装备也没有被摧毁。

OccamR

Germany has suffered catastrophic economic harm. It wasn’t caused by the war. But by American terrorism which deprived Germany of reliable and inexpensive Russian energy supplies. Result- gradual de-industrialization. And transfer of many factories to China.

德国遭受了灾难性的经济损失，但这并不是战争造成的。是美国的恐怖主义剥夺了德国原本可靠且廉价的、来自俄罗斯的能源供应。导致的结果是工业退化，许多工厂被转移到了中国。

Deng Miaozhing

Germany has always wanted to keep any international upsets to a minimum and focus on trade. This includes trade with Russia. If we look at 2019, the year when everything was still normal, Germany had a large trade surplus with Russia. It exported all its high end products, car, machinery, pharmaceuticals, plastics, medical equipment. And imported from them for the most part one product: mineral fuels.

Germany was importing likely around 40% of its natural gas from Russia in 2019, while natural gas was around 25% of total energy usage. This is a significant amount and there are infrastructures in place that rely on natural gas inputs.

德国一直希望将国际骚乱降到最低，并重点发展贸易，包括与俄罗斯的贸易。2019年一切都还很正常，德国对俄罗斯存在巨额的贸易顺差。德国出口各种高端产品，比如汽车、机械、药品、塑料、医疗设备。德国从俄罗斯进口的最主要的商品是矿物燃料。

2019年，德国大约40%的天然气是从俄罗斯进口的，而天然气约占能源使用总量的25%。这是一个很大的数字，而且有一些基础设施依赖于天然气。

Besides reliance on natural gas, Germany embarked on an energy transition starting in 2010 that planned the phasing out of coal (18% of total usage in 2019) and nuclear plants (6% of total usage in 2019). Indeed, in 2019 the use of coal dropped by a large twenty percent compared to the year before. The idea was to use natural gas as a step stone while the country was expanding its renewable sources, mainly from wind, solar and biomass. So the importance of natural gas was significant.

除了对天然气的依赖，德国从2010年开始进行能源转型，计划逐步淘汰煤炭(2019年占能源使用总量的18%)和核电站(2019年占能源使用总量的6%)。与前一年相比，2019年的煤炭使用量大幅下降了20%。这个思路是利用天然气代替煤炭，同时德国还扩大了可再生能源的产量，主要依靠风能、太阳能和生物质能。因此，天然气非常重要。

Further, two things are important when it comes to energy: price and reliance. Both factors are highly unfavorable to developed societies that rely on cheap and steady inputs. The 2020 pandemic gave the first shock to the developed world because it brought uncertainty which was showcased on energy markets. Supply chains suffered and it took years to recover, some never did. In 2022 the second shock was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The political response from Europe was to cut off ties with Russia as much as possible and this included energy imports. This added to the still lingering uncertainty from 2020 and made natural gas prices explode on European markets. Natural gas is less a global market than oil or coal because its transport is less convenient.

此外，就能源而言，有两个因素非常重要：价格和依赖。这两个因素对依赖廉价和稳定的能源供给的发达社会都非常不利。2020年的新冠疫情给发达国家带来了第一次冲击，因为它带来了不确定性，这一点在能源市场上得到了验证。能源供应链受到影响，需要数年时间才能恢复，有些甚至根本无法恢复。2022年又出现了第二次冲击，俄罗斯出兵乌克兰。欧洲的政治反应是尽可能切断与俄罗斯的关系，其中就包括能源进口。这导致2020年的紧张局面雪上加霜，欧洲市场的天然气价格大幅飙升。天然气在全球市场的地位甚至比不上石油或煤炭，因为天然气的运输不太方便。

Uncertainty and high costs have dealth a severe blow to all of Europe and especially to energy intensive industries of which Germany has many. New contracts were signed with other suppliers but for the short term the damage was done. Germany lost its vital energy ties to Russia, a fact symbolized in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. Several industries are now at risk of losing its competitive edge due to sustained high energy prices and uncertainty. This effect is big enough to make a dent in German prosperity and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs.

不确定性和成本飙升对整个欧洲造成了严重打击，尤其是拥有许多能源密集型产业的德国。虽然欧洲国家和其他供应商签订了新合同，但短期损失已经无法弥补。德国失去了与俄罗斯的重要能源供应关系，北溪天然气管道遭到破坏就是一个例证。由于居高不下的能源价格和供应紧缺，部分行业现在面临失去竞争优势的风险。这种影响足以削弱德国的经济前景，并导致数十万人失业。

We see this already unfold in total energy usage of Germany. It dropped significantly in 2020 and 2023, indicating at least partly reduced industrial activity.

德国的能源使用总量中已经反映了这一点，2020年和2023年的能源使用总量大幅下降，这说明至少有部分工业活动出现了下降。

Barnaby Lane

Well, I think the main loser in the long term is Russia. Probably Ukraine in second, Belarus in third, Iran in fourth. Then Germany.

The main reason is that it built an built an entire economic model on two things:

energy intensive manufacturing, based on cheap Russian gas

an export-based economy based on an undervalued currency

嗯，我认为从长远来看，最大的输家是俄罗斯。乌克兰可能排第二，白俄罗斯第三，伊朗第四，然后才是德国。

主要原因在于德国搭建了一个基于两个要素的整体经济模型：

以廉价俄罗斯天然气为基础的能源密集型制造业

以估值过低的货币为基础的出口型经济

Both are highly insecure and dependent on events outside Germany’s control. The first of the above has gone. The second remains (for now) but can’t survive in the long term without serious structural reforms, which would probably include full fiscal and monetary union at the EU level.

So yes, Germany has suffered a lot as a result of the Ukraine war but there’s a non-negligible risk that its situation could get a whole lot worse, especially given current political turmoil and the rise of the far-right (a phenomenon being seen right across the EU).

这两个方面都高度不安全，都依赖于不受德国控制的事件，第一点已经不复存在，第二点(目前)仍然存在，但如果不进行严肃认真的结构性改革(可能包括在欧盟层面建立全面的财政和货币联盟)，未来是无法长期维系的。

所以，是的，德国因乌克兰战争而遭受了很多损失，但未来情况可能会进一步恶化，尤其考虑到当前的政治动荡和极右翼势力的崛起(这种现象在整个欧盟都开始出现)，这是一个不可忽视的风险。

Pavel Gora

Germany is a occupied colony of USA. Ukraine is fully under control of Biden’s group.

Their role of Germany to force EU countries to partially finance, partially join the war.

The biggest loser is Ukraine, Germany plays again the role of killer of Europe. This time led by USA.

德国是美国的殖民地。乌克兰完全落入拜登集团的控制之中。

德国扮演的角色是迫使部分欧盟国家资助战争，部分欧盟国家加入战争。

最大的输家非乌克兰莫属，而德国再次扮演欧洲杀手的角色。只是这次是由美国主导的。

Bruce Josephson

It isn’t Russia is.

In a broader sense I say Csar Putin and those who support him are the biggest losers.

德国不是输家，俄罗斯才是。

从更广泛的意义上说，我认为沙皇普京和他的支持者才是最大的输家。

Ramen

Why is Germany the first country of the European Union to be affected by the war in Ukraine?

It isnt really affected.

There was a spike in energy prices for a year, but thats over.

Everything is normal now, actually Covid had a much larger effect than the war in ukraine.

Also germany benefitted from the ukraine war as well, we got lots of ukrainian and russian IT geeks.

So all in all, the ukraine war was a pretty neutral thing I would say.

为什么德国是第一个受到乌克兰战争影响的欧盟国家？

德国并没有真的受到什么影响。

能源价格上涨了一年，但已经结束了。

现在一切都恢复正常了，实际上新冠疫情的影响比乌克兰战争大得多。

德国也从乌克兰战争中受益，我们吸引了很多乌克兰和俄罗斯的IT怪才。

所以总体而言，乌克兰战争是中性事件。

Tomaž Vargazon

Why is Germany quite cold on the Russian Ukraine war? What is the reason?

为什么德国对俄乌战争如此冷淡？原因是什么？

Germany is looking out for German and also EU interests. The war in Ukraine does not benefit the EU or Germany, status quo does. That's why German genius of a Chancellor decided not to help Ukraine too much and let Putin win, this is the result.

If he had the intelligence of an eukaryote (any eukaryote), he'd figure out this position was maybe rational for the first week or so, when a quick Russian victory seem plausible and later possible. Once Ukraine, Poland, USA and UK (in this order of importance) decided they will not let Putin win, all bets were off. Those three allies of Ukraine have more than enough weapons industry, financial power and logistical hubs near Ukraine to keep the war going as long as Ukrainians are willing to fight, which would be into decades by the looks of it.

德国是为了德国和欧盟的利益着想。乌克兰战争对欧盟和德国都没有好处，对他们有利的只能是维持现状。这就是德国总理决定不愿多帮乌克兰、希望普京获胜的原因。

只要他不是没脑子的人，他会发现在第一周左右这种立场可能是合理的，当时俄罗斯似乎有望取得快速胜利。但如果乌克兰、波兰、美国和英国(按重要性排序)决意不让普京赢，所有的赌注就都作废了。乌克兰的这三个盟友在乌克兰附近拥有足够多的武器工业、金融势力和后勤中心，只要乌克兰人愿意战斗，战争就可以持续，从表面上看，这可能需要几十年的时间。

The quickest way to end the war since that fateful first week has been to support the Ukraine with everything, so Russia throws in the towel. This is also the morally correct stance, but it's also the one that benefits EU and Germany the most.

But you do need that intelligence of an eukaryote to figure it out.

足以决定命运的第一周过后，结束战争的最快方式就是全力支持乌克兰。这也是道义上的正确立场，是最有利于欧盟和德国的立场。

但你确实需要一些智慧来解决这个问题。