Is it true that India is becoming the largest economy in the world?

印度有望成为世界上最大的经济体，这是真的吗？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Yaozhou

Getting a visa for India is very difficult.

However, as a Chinese, I successfully completed my visit last month.

Sanitation in Delhi has improved and the roads are wider than when I visited five years ago.

In the metro, young people are very orderly and willing to help foreigners.

Although I am Chinese and there are border disputes between the two countries, they showed no ill will or resentment.

Nothing seems to have changed for the older people, especially the tuk-tuk drivers, who lack business integrity.

印度签证极难申请。

但作为一个中国人，我上个月成功结束了印度之旅。

德里的卫生条件已经有所改善，道路也比我五年前访问时更宽了。

地铁里的年轻人很有秩序，也愿意帮助外国人。

虽然我是中国人，而且两国之间存在边境争端，但印度人并没有对我表现出恶意或怨恨。

那些年纪稍大的印度人似乎没有什么变化，尤其是那些不太诚信的嘟嘟车司机。

I had many conversations with Indian intellectuals and workers.

The biggest problem in India is not religion, nor is it the caste system.

The biggest problem is that there is no consensus between the rich intellectuals and the poor peasants and workers.

The educated Indian intelligentsia looked down on the peasants and workers.

They have not had any deep exchange with the peasants and workers.

They just complain.

This shows the weakness of all intellectuals.

我跟印度知识分子和工人进行了多次对话。

印度最大的问题不在宗教，也不在种姓制度。

最大的问题在于，富裕的知识分子和贫农、工人之间没有共识。

受过教育的印度知识分子看不起农民和工人。

他们跟农民和工人没有任何深入的交流。

他们只会抱怨。

这反映了所有知识分子的弱点。

Compared to the people at the bottom of India, they are in two completely different worlds.

Educated intellectuals must swallow their pride and work hard to help the peasants and workers so that India can develop.

China is not a perfect country, but the chinese has many encouraging policies that allow intellectuals to work as teachers in poor areas and as the top leaders of a village.

Change begins at the bottom of society.

与印度底层民众相比，他们生活在两个完全不同的世界。

受过教育的知识分子必须放下骄傲，努力帮助农民和工人，这样印度才能得到发展。

中国不是一个完美的国家，但中国出台了很多鼓励政策，鼓励知识分子在贫困地区担任教师和村干部。

变革始于社会底层。

David Kloth

The short and easy answer is, no. India is not becoming the largest economy in the world.

At present, India has the fifth largest economy as measured by GDP, after the US, China, Japan, and Germany. While that may sound like a lot, we must also consider that India’s economy represents only 3.4% of the world’s economy, while the US GDP is more than 25% of it.

On the other hand, India has become the most populated country on earth, just surpassing China. In 2023, India’s population grew, while China’s fell slightly. For reference, India’s population is four times as large as the US, while the US GDP is seven times as large as India.

简单回答的话，不可能。印度不会成为全球最大的经济体。

目前，按GDP来衡量，印度是全球第五大经济体，仅次于美国、中国、日本和德国。虽然这个名次听起来很不错，但我们也必须意识到，印度经济只占世界经济的3.4%，美国的GDP占世界经济的25%以上。

另一方面，印度已经成为地球上人口最多的国家，超过了中国。2023年，印度人口继续增长，而中国人口略有下降。作为参考，印度人口是美国人口的4倍，而美国GDP是印度GDP的7倍。

TULASIRAO JAKKAMPUDI

India becoming a large economy is not correct.

You see other economies of world.

Number 1 position USA with 26 Trillion Dollars.

Number 2 China 19 Trillion dollars economy.

Indian economy is at 3.7 trillion dollars.

The populations of India and China are almost equal. But the difference in economy figures is 15 trillion dollars.

Then how one can say India will be a great economy???

印度并没有成为大型经济体。

你可以看看世界上其他经济体。

排名第一的是美国，GDP达26万亿美元。

排名第二的是中国，GDP达19万亿美元。

印度的GDP为3.7万亿美元。

印度和中国的人口几乎相等，但经济数据上的差异高达15万亿美元。

印度怎么可能成为一个大型经济体呢？

V Kandaswamy

India has not yet arrived at the top slot, and may not be able to achieve it in my life time. But then, our Journey is in the right direction, but only the pace has to be stimulated sustainably. There are three dimension focus that I would advocate, for India to keep moving up the global economic order.

Lets first acknowledge that we are making significant progress, and our first dimension of ascend will equip India to reach the top in a few decades, if we properly and effectively build brands, use cutting edge technology including big data, internet of things, artificial intelligence, machine learning, blockchain etc to enhance the quality and substantially bring down the cost and become globally competitive in agriculture, industry and services sector.

印度都还没有跻身前几呢，也许在我有生之年都等不到这一天。我们的前进方向是正确的，但必须通过可持续的方式来刺激发展速度。我认为，印度要在全球经济排名中不断提升，需要关注三个方面。

我们首先要承认，我们是取得了重大进展，如果我们正确有效地创建品牌，使用包括大数据、物联网、人工智能、机器学习、区块链等尖端技术，提高产品质量，大幅降低成本，在农业、工业和服务领域掌握全球竞争力，印度发展的第一维度就是让印度在几十年内达到顶峰。

The second dimension to our ascend will come in effective migration towards electric vehicles and hydrogen powered vehicles, which coupled with the benefits of first dimension, will make India a net exporter of goods and services, from the historic net importer of goods and services!. True, already we are net exporter of services, but the deficit in goods import is huge. This will change, and India will become a net exporter at the trade level (including merchandise trade in goods and services).

The third dimension comes from India being the most populous country in the world, and this benefit comes with demographic dividend. More and more people are going to come in work force, and their aspirations will help India grow its production, productivity and consumption too!

印度发展的第二个维度是用电动汽车和氢动力汽车替换燃油车，印度将从长期的商品和服务净进口国变成商品和服务的净出口国！没错，我们现在已经是服务净出口国，但商品进口的逆差还十分巨大。这种局面会改变的，印度将成为贸易方面的净出口国，包括商品和服务的贸易。

印度发展的第三维度源于印度是世界上人口最多的国家，拥有人口红利。越来越多的人加入劳动力大军，他们也将帮助印度提振产能、生产力和消费能力！

Dr. Balaji Viswanathan

How can we make India the largest economy in the world?

我们怎样才能使印度成为世界上最大的经济体？

To be the largest economy now, an average Indian has to make $13,000 per year [Rs. 8.5 lakhs/yr]  [At present, an average Indian makes about a third of that if you adjust to purchase power parity or about a eighth of that amount if you look at just the dollar figures.]

想要成为全球最大的经济体，印度人的平均年收入必须达到1.3万美元(85万卢比/年)。目前，如果按购买力平价进行调整，印度人的平均收入只有这个数值的三分之一，如果仅按美元计算，则只有这一数字的八分之一。

Almost everywhere in the developed world, workers make more than $30,000/year on an average. Even the minimum wages is way more than $13,000 in most developed countries. And a large chunk of educated Indians do make more than $13000/yr. And a lot of the Indians in the US make 10 times that level and believe me most of them are not geniuses.

Thus, the question is how do we get an average Indian to earn at the level of an average minimum wage worker in the US, Japan or Western Europe.

几乎在所有发达国家，工人的平均年薪都在3万美元以上。在大多数发达国家，最低工资也远远超过1.3万美元。大部分受过教育的印度人每年的收入超过了13000美元。很多在美国工作的印度人收入达到这个数值的10倍，相信我，他们大多都算不上天才。

因此，问题在于我们如何让普通印度人的收入也能达到美国、日本或西欧工人的平均最低工资水平。

Education

教育

1.Education for everyone. Almost everyone in Sweden or any other developed country finishes high school and that is the first bar we have to cross. Get every Indian child study all the way until high school [a large number drop out currently].

2.Well thought out out school education. There are two main purposes of education - to expand your mind and to get ready for job. Indian schools need not become like MIT Media Lab, but the minimum they are expected to do is teach reading/mathematics/logic with a high level of proficiency. We can learn a lot from Finland on this - Why Are Finland's Schools Successful? - and this is not rocket science to teach people good reading and maths skills.

1. 人人享有教育机会。在瑞典或其他发达国家，几乎每个人都完成了高中学业，这是我们必须跨越的第一个障碍，让每个印度孩子完成高中学业(目前有很多孩子辍学)。

2. 提供一流的学校教育。教育有两个主要目的—拓展思维和为就业做准备。印度学校不需要成为麻省理工学院那样的学校，但至少应该教会孩子们较高的阅读、数学和逻辑技能。在这一点上，我们可以向芬兰学习很多—为什么芬兰的学校如此成功？—教会学生良好的阅读和数学技能并不是什么艰深难懂的火箭科学。

3.Good technical and vocational schools. College should not be the default option for most. In Germany, a lot of the students go to quality vocational schools that prepares them for industry. Unless someone goes on to become a researcher, professor, doctor or other related professions, they should be trained through these vocational schools so that we have well trained workers who can get high end industry jobs.

3.良好的技术和职业学校。大学不应该是大多数人的默认选择。在德国，很多学生选择入读一流职业学校，为工作做准备。除非希望日后从事研究人员、教授、医生或其他相关职业，否则学生们应该进入职业学校接受培训，这样印度就会有大批训练有素的工人获得高端行业的工作。

Get workers ready

让工人做好工作准备

1.Unfit workers are not going to take the world by storm. When a sizable chunk of our workers are undernourished and sleep in platforms & shanties, they are not going to earn $13000. State governments should have free hostels where any worker can get free food, clean lodging and basic healthcare - no questions asked. It is not charity - governments can make far more than that with more taxes paid by these healthier workers.

2.Much more responsive training & placement: Government should have its own LinkedIn kind of tool, replacing the current unemployment exchanges, where it can keep track of what skills are needed in the market and what workers have them. Depending on changing needs, they should be able to quickly train the workers and place them. If companies need workers for 3d printing, the program should be able to create an army of them in a couple of months - it has to be that snap & responsive.

1.不健康的工人不可能名震四海。如果多数印度工人还存在营养不良，居无定所，他们不可能赚到1.3万美元。各邦政府应该提供免费的旅舍，让工人们可以领取免费的食物、干净的床位和基本的医疗保健。这不是做慈善—如果这些健康的工人有能力缴纳更多的税收，政府的获益更大。

2. 响应更及时的培训和安置：政府应该推出类似领英的工具，跟踪就业市场需要什么样的技能，哪些工人拥有这些技能。根据不断变化的市场需求，他们能够对工人进行快速培训和安置。如果企业需要3D打印工人，政府就能在几个月内组织一支队伍—速度必须快。

Make it easy to do business

让商贸活动更便捷

Workers can get paid only when there are businesses that can hire them. Some people think of Scandinavian countries as socialist nations. That is far from truth - those countries are capitalist dynamos as seen from World Bank rankings - Doing Business in Sweden - or the economic freedom index - Country Rankings.

工人只有在有企业有能力雇佣他们的时候才能获得报酬。有些人认为斯堪的纳维亚国家是社会主义国家。这与事实相去甚远—从世界银行排名—《瑞典营商环境》或经济自由指数—国家排名来看，这些国家都是资  本主义的发动机。

·  Lot more courts and a lot less laws. We have way too many regulations and way too less courts to enforce them. When a business is embroiled in a court dispute, it takes years to solve them and that makes companies very afraid of opening business in India.

·  More regulations on bankruptcy and contracts. These are still in works in India. Doing Business in India

·  Make it easy to follow laws. In India it is very hard to even file business taxes and cross-border transactions are even hard.

·  Make it easy to buy, register or sell property. Land records have to be transparent.

· 更多的法院和更少的法规。我们印度的法规太多，但执行法规的法院太少。企业卷入法律纠纷时，往往需要数年时间才能解决，企业都很害怕在印度开展业务。

·增加对破产和合同的法律规定。印度仍在努力

·提高遵纪守法的便利度。在印度，连营业税申报都很难，跨境交易更是难上加难。

·提高购买、登记或出售财产的便利度。土地记录必须透明。