China has just overtaken Japan as the worlds top car exporter.  Could Japan possibly take back the spot sometime in the future?

中国刚刚超过日本，成为全球最大的汽车出口国。日本有望夺回宝座吗？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Bill Smith

That stat is somewhat misleading.

Chinese cars are only exported from China, but Japanese cars are exported from a number of nations because they have car manufacturing plants in many countries. Also those plants supply the country they're in so those vehicles don't count as Japanese exports.

Both China and Japan can't count their home markets as exports.

这个数据多少有些误导人。

中国汽车只从中国出口，但日本汽车会从许多国家出口，因为日本车企在许多国家都有汽车制造厂。此外，这些境外汽车制造工厂供应的是所在国家的市场，所以这些汽车不计入日本的出口数据。

中国和日本都不能把本国市场的销售数据算入出口。

Gully Foyled

China took that lead for a couple of reasons:

中国领先有以下几个原因：

- European, Japanese and Korean carmakers left the Russian market due to sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s exports to Russia rose by around 1,000,000 cars per year as a result.

- China reduced domestic subsidies for electric vehicles while the economy was still struggling to recover from COVID which caused sales to decline and Chinese EV manufacturers have been cutting prices to export the excess.

Chinese auto production and exports have been climbing as has the quality of Chinese cars. However, if, for example, sanctions on Russia end they may temporarily lose that largest exporter status.

由于俄罗斯出兵乌克兰招致了制裁，欧洲、日本和韩国的汽车制造商离开了俄罗斯市场，中国对俄罗斯的汽车出口每年增加了约100万辆。

新冠疫情后，中国经济为了加快经济复苏减少了对电动汽车的补贴，导致了销量的下降，中国电动汽车制造商多次降低价格，出口多余产量。

中国的汽车产量和出口量一直在攀升，中国汽车的质量也在不断提高。但如果西方对俄罗斯的制裁结束，中国可能会暂时失去最大出口国的宝座。

Krishna Kumar Subramanian

Why?

Haven’t they spent enough time up there, pum gasoline engines into the planet and destroying it?

A newcomer brings clean tech. And you want the former beast to rise again?

Why?

为什么？

日本在第一名宝座上待的时间还不够久吗，用汽油发动机充斥地球，然后摧毁地球？

后起之秀带来了清洁技术，你却希望昔日的野兽再次崛起？

为什么？

Johannes Sulistyo

Nope.

They might never take back the spot.

They will however, be eventually overtaken by South Korea. That’s for sure.

Japan for long has been dependent on foreign markets, particularly poorer Asian countries, and these poorer countries, no longer as poor as before, are now switching to Korean and Chinese cars.

不可能了。

他们可能再也无法夺回这个宝座了。

他们最终还会被韩国超越，这是肯定的。

长期以来，日本一直依赖国外市场，特别是较为贫穷的亚洲国家，这些国家已经不像以前那么穷了，现在开始选购韩国和中国的汽车。

In the second largest car market in the world (USA), Korean car brand is cree up the market share pie ladder.

One thing they are betting on, but has no capacity to influence, drive, or implement this so-called “Hydrogen economy”.

在世界第二大汽车市场(美国)，韩国汽车品牌的市场占有率正在上升。

他们押注的是他们没有能力影响、推动或实施的所谓的“氢经济”。

Hydrogen is a volatile compound requiring even stricter safety standards than fossil fuel. It explodes, not combusts

It further restricts less developed nation as they need more sophisticated infrastructure to handle it

It is expensive to synthesize, as it used a lot of electricity for the electrolysis process, but still cleaner than burning gasoline though. But a bit worse than charging electric vehicle by burning peat coal

Mining hydrogen is still a new thing, and you may not like the places where it has been discovered

氢是一种挥发性化合物，安全标准比化石燃料更严格。它可能不是燃烧，而是爆炸。

这进一步制约了欠发达国家的参与，因为他们需要更复杂的基础设施才能处理。

氢的合成成本很高，因为电解过程中需要消耗大量的电力，比燃烧汽油清洁一些，但不如燃烧泥煤给电动汽车充电。

氢气的采集仍是新鲜事物，你可能不会喜欢产氢气的地方

Japan has been cementing, deep rooting its ICE car manufacturing expertise into its nationwide supply chain. For example, the makers of wiper blades, wiper motors, wiper fittings, the stalks, the washer liquid reservoir, each of them contributes efficiency that makes Japanese car the best in the world in terms of manufacturing. Yes, EV cars still use wiper blades, they will survive, but not those making the transmission or ICE parts

It also made them very difficult to switch over to a new disruptive technologies that will render many of these suppliers out of business

日本将其内燃机汽车制造技术推广到全国供应链中。例如，雨刷片、雨刷马达、雨刷配件、雨刷杆、清洗液储存器的制造商，他们都帮助日本汽车在制造方面跻身全球第一的地位。电动汽车也会使用雨刷片，可以存活下来，但那些制造变速器或内燃机部件的厂商就不行了。

他们很难改用新的颠覆性技术，这种技术会让许多供应商破产。

Because in Japanese system, they buy stakes in these suppliers, turning them into a web of interconnected network of collaborative giant organisation called Keiretsu. You just cannot let them go bankrupt in your decision to switch over to some new technology. The maker of the head gasket seals, piston rings, spark plugs, etc are probably at some point, too big to fail for the group

因为在日本的体系中，他们会购买供应商的股份，把供应商集合成一个相互关联的网，一个叫做企业联盟的大型合作组织。你不能让供应商们在决定改用新技术时破产倒闭。生产气缸垫片密封件、活塞环、火花塞等产品的制造商也许规模太大，不能倒闭。

Japan is simply too late in the game

日本在这场游戏中动作太慢了，没跟上趋势

They tried to dictate the market with “hybrid”, which was cool in 1997, but this is already 2024, they are still pussyfooting with PHEV

The removal of hybrid from Japanese car maker is like deleting keyboard from Blackberry or “a phone being a phone” from the Symbian era Nokia

Like Blackberry and Nokia, they will lose the future main market, but will they accept being a niche player? We shall see. I know Subaru and Mazda are okay with it, but will the likes of Toyota, Honda, or Nissan be okay with it?

他们试图用“混合动力”来主导市场，这个理念在1997年确实很酷，但现在已经是2024年了，他们对插电式混合动力车依然犹豫不决

让日本汽车制造商抛下混合动力就像让黑莓删除键盘，或者让塞班时代的诺基亚放弃“手机就是手机”的理念。

和黑莓、诺基亚一样，他们都会失去未来的主流市场，但他们甘愿沦为小众玩家吗？我们走着瞧吧。我知道斯巴鲁和马自达可以接受，但丰田、本田或日产这样的汽车愿意接受吗？

The world’s leader in battery technology is China, both CATL and BYD at the forefront of it. Third place is South Korean LG Chem, which is due to release its LFP battery for EV in 2025, so they are like 2-3 years behind China. Finally at distant fourth we have Japan. Toyota claimed they did a breakthrough with whatever battery - Sodium based or something that should give them some competitive edge. But the product is not yet there, and now a Toyota group Daihatsu is experiencing major issues

目前电池技术的全球领导者是中国，宁德时代和比亚迪都走在了前列。排在第三位的是韩国的LG化学，该公司将于2025年发布用于电动汽车的磷酸铁锂电池，他们比中国落后2-3年。最后，排在第四位的是日本。丰田声称他们在电池方面取得了突破—钠基电池等能给他们带来竞争优势的东西。但这款产品还没有上市，现在丰田旗下的大发遇到了重大问题。

Japan focuses on a domestic market that is no longer giving them future-defining insights.

日本关注的是国内市场，而国内市场不再能给他们提供决定未来的洞察力。

The country that invented QR code still pays homage to paper mills and Hanko stamp craftspeople and tend to underutilise their own innovation. In some respect, they are even behind Indonesia, a develo country. Shinkansen has just launched “e-yoyaku” (e-reservation) late last year in 2023. Japan is almost a decade behind some third world countries.

Japanese businesses caters for its domestic market (JDM) and considers them to be primary objective. Some corporations managed to separate their global or local operations with Japanese ones.

这个发明二维码的国家至今还推崇造纸厂和汉高邮票工匠，并未充分利用自己的创新成果。在某些方面，他们甚至落后于印尼这个发展中国家。新干线在2023年才推出电子预订系统。日本几乎比一些第三世界国家落后了十年。

日本企业的首要目标是迎合国内市场。有些公司的全球或本地业务和日本业务是不一样的。

Japan, despite being US ally, and ups and downs relationship with South Korea in political stage, have a very disconnected real market sector. In South Korea, you will be hard-pressed to find Japanese cars on streets, likewise in Japan - maybe the only place in the world where a Korean car is an extreme rarity. The only popular Korean thing in Japan is Hallyu-related, like Korean beauty products, K-Pop entertainment, Korean food, and Korean holiday. Likewise, it is typically Japanese entertainment (anime / manga) and food that goes in Korea

虽然日本是美国的盟友，在政治方面与韩国的关系起伏不定，在市场方面也非常脱节。在韩国，街道上很难看到日本车，在日本也是如此—也许这里是世界上唯一一个难觅韩国车辆踪迹的地方。在日本，韩国唯一受到欢迎的是和韩流相关的事物，比如韩国的美容产品、韩国流行音乐、韩国食品和韩国假期。同样，能进入韩国的通常就是日本的娱乐(动漫/漫画)和食物。

Everything Japan and Korea is a go-go-go in China. They are still the number one foreign tourists to both countries. You can see who can learn better from who

As for Japan-dominated foreign marker, and proud owner of a Japanese car, I think it could be a time to bid good bye for their leadership in our market.

Complacence - has led them to release sub-par products by feature, by technology, and by quality. Their mantra seems to be “shitty products for shithole countries” delivered in tatemae politeness fashion

日本和韩国的东西在中国都很流行。中国仍然是日韩两国最大的外国游客来源国。所以你可以看出谁能从谁身上学到更多吧。

至于日本主导的外国市场，以及自豪的日本汽车车主，我认为现在可能是时候跟他们在我们市场的主导地位说声再见了。

沾沾自喜—导致他们发布的产品在功能、技术和质量上都低于标准。他们的观念似乎一直是“三流国家用三流产品”。

Japan underestimated how much the outside world is catching up. They have just been trampled by Korea, and soon about to be whooped by China. It could be made worse for them, if only American car maker were a bit more committed and serious

The Koreans taught us that at this pricing point, we could get an automated sunroof, integrated wireless Apple CarPlay & Android Auto, and whatnots - I paid sub-premium price for the same technology in my Mazda back in 2014, including walk-away auto door lock, only to find Honda has just recently feature it 8–9 years later

日本低估了其他国家迎头追赶的拼劲。他们刚刚被韩国踩在脚下，不久后又会被中国打败。如果美国汽车制造商开始认真起来，日本的情况可能就更糟了。

韩国人教会我们，在这个价格上，我们可以拥有天窗，集成无线Apple CarPlay和Android Auto等诸如此类的东西—我在2014年就为马自达的这些性能支付了不菲的费用，包括自动门锁，结果本田在8-9年后才刚刚推出带有这些性能的车。

Their only advantages are slowly eaten up: the vast network of dealer presence, after sales service (which is to be honest, is just so-so), and resale value (which will be gone soon)

Sadly, Japan has no answer. Even at their absolute peak, Japan, unlike USA, refuses to admit that it is highly dependent on foreign market to generate their wealth and afford their highly-touted standards of living.

它们唯一的优势是庞大的经销商网络、售后服务(老实说，一般般)和二手价值(很快就会消失)。

遗憾的是，日本并没有应对之策。和美国不同的是，日本拒绝承认它高度依赖国外市场来创造财富，来供养他们自诩富足的生活水平。

It was still true when NTT DoCoMo was the world’s most sophisticated phone and network system back in early 2000s. Mobile internet was a Japanese thing and we were all like a decade behind Japan. Sure the financial market is in shambles, but Japan was easily living in the future. When iPhone, Android system came out in 2007, we never imagined how it wiped out all Japanese phone makers today like Kyocera - even Sony Ericsson.

21世纪初，当NTT 多科莫还是世界上最一流的电话和网络系统时，情况确实如此。移动互联网是日本发明的，我们当时比日本落后了10年。诚然，金融市场一片混乱，但日本很容易生活在未来。但是当iPhone和Android系统在2007年问世时，我们从未想到它们会如何摧毁今天所有的日本手机制造商，比如京瓷—甚至是索尼爱立信。

In 2019, it pains me to say that a decent holiday in Tokyo is far more affordable than the ones in Bali or Jakarta, let alone Singapore - affluent Indonesian lifestyle is way too overpriced. It is far cheaper to eat Ippudo ramen right in Ginza than in its Pacific Place Mall, Jakarta branch. A bowl of Akamaru Special ramen is easily ¥1.081 (IDR 116.000) before tax here. It is just ¥1.030, even after recent price increase for Ginza.

进入2019年，我不得不痛苦地说，在东京好好度个假已经比去巴厘岛或雅加达便宜多了，更不用说新加坡了—印尼的消费实在是太高了。在银座吃一风堂拉面比在雅加达太古广场购物中心吃要便宜许多。在这里，一碗拉面的税前价格是1081日元(11.6万印尼盾)。就算最近银座涨价后，也只要1030日元。

They tried to keep Japan the same for the pensioners, so they don’t have to readjust the values. But the world does not wait for them. Besides denial, typical racism, and refusal to change. It is extremely hard to see Japan coming back to claim the lead in foreseeable future.

他们想让日本变成适合银发族的不变的社会，但世界并不会等待他们。除了否认，日本的种族主义也很普遍，他们拒绝改变。在可预见的未来，我们很难看到日本重归领先地位。

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