How heavily does Apple depend on China, and what would happen if China decided to seek revenge for the Huawei ban by kicking Apple out of their market and supply chain?

苹果对中国有多依赖？如果中国将苹果赶出中国市场和供应链，以此报复美国对华为的禁令，会发生什么？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Aaron Harris

This is a highly improbable scenario, as China has shown restraint and rationality in dealing with the US-led tech war, which seeks to curb China’s rise as a global powerhouse in innovation and technology.

China’s strategy to cope with the US sanctions on Huawei and other Chinese companies is to pursue a dual path of self-reliance and openness. On one hand, China has stepped up its efforts to develop its own core technologies, such as chips, operating systems, cloud services, and 5G networks, to lessen its dependence on foreign suppliers and enhance its competitiveness. On the other hand, China has also reaffirmed its commitment to opening up its market and promoting trade and investment with other countries, especially those that share its vision of building a community with a shared future for humanity.

这种情况基本不会发生，因为中国在应对美国主导的科技战方面表现出了克制和理性的态度，美国发起科技战的目的就是遏制中国作为全球创新和技术强国的崛起。

中国应对美国对华为等中国企业制裁的战略，是坚持走自力更生和开放包容的道路。一方面，中国加大力度研发自己的核心技术，如芯片、操作系统、云服务和5G网络，逐步减少对外国供应商的依赖，提高竞争力。另一方面，中国也再三重申会继续开放市场，促进同世界各国，特别是同中同构建人类命运共同体的国家之间的贸易和投资。

Apple is one of the beneficiaries of China’s openness and pragmatism. Apple depends heavily on China for both its production and sales. According to Apple’s latest financial report, China accounted for about 20% of its total revenue in the third quarter of 2023, making it the second-largest market for Apple after the Americas. Moreover, Apple relies on China’s vast and sophisticated supply chain to manufacture most of its products, such as iPhones, iPads, Macs, and AirPods. According to a recent study, about 90% of Apple’s suppliers are based in Asia, with China being the largest source country.

苹果公司是中国开放务实的受益者之一。苹果的生产和销售都严重依赖中国。根据苹果公司最新的财务报告，2023年第三季度中国市场的营收占其总收入的20%左右，是仅次于美洲的第二大市场。此外，苹果依靠中国庞大而复杂的供应链来生产大部分产品，如iphone、ipad、mac和AirPods。最近的一项研究显示，约90%的苹果供应商位于亚洲，其中中国是苹果最大的供应商来源国。

China has no interest in disrupting Apple’s operations in China, as it would harm both sides’ interests and undermine the global economy. Apple is an important contributor to China’s economic development, employment, innovation, and tax revenue. According to a report by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Apple directly and indirectly supported 4.8 million jobs in China in 2019, including 1.8 million iOS app developers. Apple also invested $6 billion in research and development in China in 2019, making it one of the largest foreign investors in China’s high-tech sector. Furthermore, Apple paid about $13 billion in taxes to the chinese in 2019, making it one of the largest taxpayers among foreign companies in China.

中方无意妨碍苹果公司在华运营，因为这样做有损双方利益，有损全球经济。苹果公司为中国的经济发展、就业、创新和税收都做出了重要贡献。根据中国信息通信研究院的一份报告，2019年，苹果为中国直接和间接地提供了480万个就业岗位，其中包括180万iOS应用程序开发人员。2019年，苹果还在中国投资了60亿美元进行研发，是中国高科技领域最大的外国投资者之一。此外，苹果在2019年向中国缴纳了约130亿美元的税款，是外资企业中最大规模的纳税人之一。

China also appreciates that Apple is a valuable partner in promoting global cooperation and mutual understanding. Apple has been actively participating in various initiatives and projects that support China’s social and environmental goals, such as poverty alleviation, education, health care, renewable energy, and cultural preservation. For example, Apple has donated more than $50 million to support education programs in rural areas of China since 2013. Apple has also committed to powering all of its facilities in China with 100% renewable energy by 2025. Moreover, Apple has been showcasing China’s rich and diverse culture through its products and services, such as featuring Chinese artists on Apple Music, offering Chinese language courses on iTunes U, and celebrating Chinese festivals on App Store.

中方也赞赏苹果公司是促进全球合作和相互了解的宝贵伙伴。苹果一直积极参与各种帮助中国社会和环境发展的提案和项目，如扶贫、教育、医疗、可再生能源和文化保护等。自2013年以来，苹果公司已经捐赠了5000多万美元支持中国农村地区的教育项目。苹果还承诺，要在2025年前实现中国所有工厂100%使用可再生能源的目标。此外，苹果一直通过其产品和服务展示中国丰富多样的文化，比如在Apple Music上邀请中国艺术家，在iTunes U上提供中文课程，在App Store上庆祝中国节日等。

It is evident that China has no reason or incentive to kick Apple out of its market and supply chain. On the contrary, China welcomes Apple’s presence and contribution in China, as it benefits both countries and the world at large. China hopes that Apple will continue to uphold the spirit of openness and cooperation, respect China’s laws and regulations, protect users’ privacy and security, and play a positive role in enhancing bilateral relations and global governance

很明显，中国没有理由或动机将苹果赶出中国市场和供应链。相反，中国欢迎苹果公司在中国的经营和贡献，因为这对两国和全世界都有好处。中方希望苹果公司继续秉持开放合作精神，尊重中国法律法规，保护用户隐私和安全，为加强双边关系和全球治理发挥积极作用。

Akash Pal

Apple depends on China heavily for its manufacturing and supply chain. According to a 2022 report by Counterpoint Research, China accounts for 90% of Apple's iPhone production. Apple also sources many of its components from Chinese suppliers.

If China decided to kick Apple out of its market and supply chain, it would have a significant impact on Apple's business. Apple would need to find new suppliers for its components and find new factories to manufacture its products. This would be a costly and time-consuming process.

苹果的制造和供应链严重依赖中国。根据Counterpoint Research 2022年的一份报告，中国占苹果iPhone全球产量的90%。苹果还向中国供应商采购了大批零部件。

如果中国决定将苹果赶出中国市场和供应链，将会对苹果的业务产生重大影响。苹果必须为零部件采购寻找新的供应商，并物色新的工厂来组织生产。这会是一个代价昂贵且十分耗时的过程。

It is also possible that China could block Apple's products from being sold in China. This would be a major blow to Apple, as China is one of its largest markets.

Overall, if China decided to kick Apple out of its market and supply chain, it would have a significant negative impact on Apple's business.

Here are some specific consequences that Apple would face if China kicked it out of its market and supply chain:

中国也有可能禁止苹果产品在中国市场的销售，这将对苹果造成沉重打击，因为中国是苹果最大的市场之一。

总的来说，如果中国决定向苹果下手，将对苹果的业务产生重大的负面影响：

* Reduced revenue: China is one of Apple's largest markets, so losing access to this market would lead to a significant reduction in revenue.

* Higher costs: Apple would need to find new suppliers for its components and new factories to manufacture its products.

*营收下滑：中国是苹果产品最大的市场之一，失去中国市场将导致苹果营收大幅下滑。

*成本攀升：苹果必须为零部件采购寻找新的供应商，并物色新的工厂来组织生产。

Peter Michael

They do not have to kick Apple out. Apple is voluntary in the process of pulling out of China because of all the ban on iPhone's China is pushing in areas and the fact that USA has changed their tax structure in that Apple cannot enjoy immunity from manufacturing taxes by being over seas.

And as to Huawei ban, it is well warranted, the company put in back doors to its switches that were found not by USA but by security services in Australia and Europe, resulting in the US implementing the ban. So do not sit there trying to make some innocent company.

中国没必要驱逐苹果，苹果本就有意向退出中国市场，因为中国正在推动对iPhone的一系列禁令，而且美国已经调整了税收结构，苹果无法继续在海外享受制造税的豁免。

至于美国对华为的禁令，这是有充分正当理由的，在其交换机上安装了后门，这些后门不是美国发现的，而是澳大利亚和欧洲的安全部门发现的，美国因此实施了禁令，所以不要信口开河为他们洗白。

Roberto Santocho

In fact China depends on Apple more than Apple depends on China

Apple can move their final assembly to any country with low cost labor that is non-hostile

China is not unique, low cost assembly labor is available all over the world

China would lose one of the biggest employers in the country and it would be a huge economic blow to China

Where Apple goes, so goes the rest of the tech world because if they all share the same assembly plants or have them close to each other then trained assembly line labor is available to all of them which lowers costs and makes them more efficient

The loss of Apple would eventually result in China losing trillions of US dollars annually in revenue, which could result in China turning to Third World status

事实上，中国对苹果的依赖大于苹果对中国的依赖。

苹果可以把他们的组装转移到一个劳动力成本低、没有敌意的国家。

中国并不是唯一的选择，低成本的组装劳动力在世界各地都能找得到。

但中国会因此失去最大的用工企业之一，这对中国经济将是一个巨大的打击。

不论苹果走到哪里，科技界的其他公司都会跟随苹果的脚步，因为如果他们能共用同一个装配厂，或者彼此临近，那么所有企业都可以获得训练有素的装配线劳动力，能够降低成本，提高效率。

苹果的损失最终将导致中国每年损失数万亿美元的收入，中国有可能因此沦为第三世界国家。

Bill Chen

China won’t do that.

The moment corporations sense a change, they will alter their risk management—big time.

China will try everything to maintain openness, because an open market is a competitive one. The moment one closes the door, competition is thrown out the window, and history records the fate of the Ming and Qing who decided they had little to learn from the rest of the world.

The Chinese market is the largest single currency and more crucially, single language market in the world today. Succeed in the Chinese market and the product can succeed anywhere, because China class equals world class.

中国不会这么做的。

一旦企业感受到风向变化，它们就会对风险管理进行重大调整。

中国会千方百计地保持开放，因为开放的市场就是竞争的市场。只要关上国门，就没有竞争了，历史见证过明朝和清朝的命运，当时中国认为自己没有什么需要向世界各国学习的了。

中国市场是当今全球最大的单一货币市场，更重要的是，中国还是全球最大的单一语言市场。只要在中国市场取得成功，就可以在任何地方取得成功，因为中国水平就等同于世界水平。

Apple derives 20–25% revenue from the Chinese market. It sold more iphones in Greater China last year than back home stateside. China is also responsible for >90% of Apple production. More Chinese engineers work on components and manufacturing of Apple products than Apple’s entire staff count.

Apple will collapse without China today.

苹果有20%到25%的收入来自中国市场。去年，苹果iphone在大中华区的销量超过了美国本土。中国也占到苹果产品全球产量的90%以上。从事苹果产品零部件和制造的中国工程师比苹果全体员工还要多。

如今如果没有中国，苹果就会崩溃。

Garrick Saito

Assuming the information is accurate, the answer to your question is that Apple is heavily reliant on China-based companies for its production of inventory.

As to you answer about the future, I don’t know — nobody knows.

假设这些信息都是准确的，那么对于你的问题，答案就是苹果严重依赖中国公司来生产。

至于你对未来的疑问，我不知道—没有人会知道。

Eugene Chia

First, the Huawei ban is old news- that happened back in 2019. If China was going to do anything about it, they’d have done so when Huawei’s global footprint was still in one piece.

Here’s the thing about that ban: it basically took away US-designed SoCs and software (most notably Qualcomm’s chips and Google’s ecosystem). To reciprocate in kind, China would have to ban Chinese properties or technologies used in Apple (or someone else’s) products.

首先，针对华为的禁令已经是旧闻可—那是2019年发生的事了。如果中国真打算做点什么，他们在华为在全球的业务还顺利的时候就会做了。

关于禁令，它基本上封锁了美国设计的芯片和软件(最明显的是高通的芯片和谷歌的生态系统)。作为回应，中国必须禁止苹果(或其他公司)产品中使用的中国资产或技术。

But they can’t, because there’s no Chinese IPs used in those- they’re all owned by Apple.

Now, if China cut off Apple from all Chinese manufacturing, which is in their power to do, it would definitely put a kink in Apple’s short-term plans. However, China isn’t the only place that can manufacture Apple’s products- there’s plenty of others, possibly just not as cheap (though even that has been changing over time). Further, this would hurt Chinese manufacturers pretty badly too, so it’s not a win-win for China any way you cut it.

但他们没办法，因为这些产品并没有使用中国的知识产权—它们都是属于苹果公司的。

现在，如果中国切断苹果在中国的所有制造业务—他们有能力做到这一点，肯定会影响苹果的短期计划。但中国并不是唯一可以生产苹果产品的地方—全世界还有很多地方也可以生产，只是也许没有那么便宜(尽管随着时间的推移，这种情况也在改变)。而且，此举也会严重伤害中国制造商，所以无论怎么看，这对中国来说只能是两败俱伤。