Will Russia run out of money and withdraw from the war with Ukraine?

俄罗斯是否会耗尽资金，退出与乌克兰的战争？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Jernej Kurincic

Hardly.

There is a different economy in totaliarian infected mind. Look at North Korea - most of people are starving and freezing, but they still invest in making nuclear rockets.

If you are a big country wealthy with natural resources you can easily skip the money question altogether: you mine resources and make weapons with them and so you can wage war without the end.

很难。

在受主义影响的人眼中，经济是不一样的。看看朝鲜吧—大多数人都还在挨饿和受冻，但他们仍然砸钱制造核火箭。

如果你是一个拥有丰富自然资源的大国，你可以轻松忽略钱的问题；你开采资源，用它们制造武器，这样你就可以无休止地发动战争。

Some optimists expose that they will run out of electronics, but Russians are crazy hackers and electronic improvisers, so for the military there may be primitive, but useful solutions available for long.

Russia has already run down the drain all its commercial connections and benefits, so they don’t have much to loose in the ongoing war. War is the natural state of Russia - people were lost and confused for 30 years now, when there was peace and quiet - now they are again in the saddle.

一些乐观主义者透露，他们将耗尽电子设备，但俄罗斯人是疯狂的黑客和电子即兴创作者，所以对军方来说，可能保留了一些原始但有效的解决方案，可以长期使用。

俄罗斯所有的商业关系和利益都毁于一旦，所以他们在战争中毫无顾忌。战争是俄罗斯的自然状态—当处于和平安宁的30年间，俄罗斯人反而感觉迷失和困惑—现在他们又重新掌权了。

So I find it quite possible Russia will be playing this game until China sees they have become weak enough and march in from the east. Or India. Or both. And it is quite possible nobody will bat an eye. But I will be surprised if in 20 years Moscow will be still standing.

所以我发现俄罗斯很可能会一直玩这个游戏，直到中国发现俄罗斯已经不堪一击，从东面进军俄罗斯。或者印度。或者中国和印度一起行动。可能没有人会有所反应。但如果莫斯科真的撑到20年后，我绝对会感到震惊。

Zoltán Juhász

Russia can’t run out of money. They print as much as they want. What they can run out of, is weapons manufacturing capacities and bodies. And ultimately, they can run out of the patience of their citizens as a result.

They can switch to wartime economy anytime. That means poverty for most Russians, as beyond there most basic needs, every effort would go towards weapons manufacturing. Also they can conscript all young Russian to the army, and send them to death. That would help them win on the battlefield. But considering there is nothing there for them to win, it can easily led to a revolution.

Ultimately, in macro-economics, it is never about money. It is about how much percentage of their economy and population do they dedicate to war effort.

俄罗斯才不会缺钱呢，他们想印多少就印多少。他们有可能耗尽的是武器制造能力和兵力。最终，他们可能会失去民心。

他们可以随时会切换成战时经济。这对大多数俄罗斯人来说就意味着贫困，因为除了最基本的需求之外，所有的努力都会用于武器制造。他们还可以征召所有年轻的俄罗斯人参军，让他们去战场送命。但他们没有获胜的胜算，很容易催生革命。

归根结底，在宏观经济学中，战争从来不是钱的问题，而是一国能将经济和人口的多大比例投入于战争之中。

Dan O Brien

I can see Ukraine recovering Crimea ..and that leading to a revolution or coup in Russia . , then it withdraws to it's 1993 borders. They don't withdraw as such and they don't do apologies .. But they forfeit whatever they have in the West

我认为乌克兰会收复克里米亚…导致俄罗斯爆发革命或政变，然后两国边境重回1993年的划定。他们不会撤退，也不会道歉。但他们在西方的一切都会被没收。

Paul Lundquist

Russia doesn’t need money; all it needs is people to gather the raw materials, more to process them, more to make the weapons and ammunition, then people to use them.

俄罗斯不需要钱；它只需要俄罗斯人收集原材料，让更多的人加工原料，让更多的人制造武器和弹药，供给士兵们使用。

Michael Ciao

Russia has the biggest natural resources in the world, Russia is the biggest oil and gas supplier to China, right next door by land transportation. China also buys timber, minerals and agricultural commodities from Russia, China is the biggest buyer in the world. Both countries have the same enemies. China has money, Russia doesn’t run out of money.

俄罗斯拥有世界上最丰富的自然资源，俄罗斯是中国最大的石油和天然气供应国，只需通过陆路运输到邻国。中国还从俄罗斯购买木材、矿产和农产品，中国是世界上最大的买家。两国都有同样的敌人。中国有钱，俄罗斯也不缺钱。

Mats Andersson

Countries don’t “run out of money” the way individuals do.

What you get instead is a state of things working less and less. This is a hard winter for Russians; many of them have to choose between being hungry and being cold, as they don’t have enough money to both eat and keep warm. Still, they will certainly survive this, they’re just intensely uncomfortable.

国家不会像个人那样容易“缺钱”。

相反，一切只会慢慢陷入停摆状态。对俄罗斯人来说，这是一个难熬的冬季，他们中的许多人不得不在饥饿和寒冷之间做出选择，因为他们没有足够的钱同时满足果腹和保暖的需求。但是他们肯定能挺过来，只是会非常不舒服。

Things that have stopped working properly include road maintenance, district heating in some prominent cases, airlines, and car manufacturing. Now, they still make cars, only without GPS and airbags, and not very many. They still have civilian planes in the air, it’s just that they have to scavenge spare parts off other planes so that they have fewer and fewer of them. Most district heating is still working, but they can’t repair the broken and they can’t build new. You can still drive on roads with potholes, but it’s damaging to cars, and some towns in Siberia will be isolated until the roads thaw out in spring.

陷入停摆状态的领域包括道路维护、区域供热、航空公司和汽车制造。现在他们还在生产汽车，但没有GPS和安全气囊，而且产量也不高。民用飞机还在飞行，但他们不得不从其他飞机上收集备件，所以民用飞机也越来越少了。大多数区域供热系统仍在运行，但故障无法修复，也无法铺设新的设备。你可以在坑坑洼洼的道路上继续开车，但会对汽车造成损害，西伯利亚的一些城镇陷入隔绝状态，直到春天来临，道路解冻。

And all this will just keep deteriorating. Russia will be able to pay for fewer and fewer things that aren’t about the war. Eventually, this will include things that are more or less directly tied to the war effort. Oil extraction is an obvious failure point: the equipment needed to extract, refine, and transport oil depends on electronics that they will have difficulties replacing when it wears out. If the oil stops flowing, they will go bankrupt pretty quickly. (Also, their tanks will stand still without fuel.)

一切都会继续恶化。俄罗斯能够购买的与战争无关的商品会越来越少。石油开采就是一个明显的问题：石油的提取、提炼和运输石油所需的设备依赖于电子设备，当电子设备损坏时，很难得到更换。如果石油停止流动，他们很快就会破产(他们的坦克也会在缺乏燃料的情况下彻底趴窝)。

And at some point, they’ll be roughly where Germany was at the end of WWI: they will have difficulties feeding the people, they will have difficulties kee their army equipped, and they will have to give up the fight. Even if their soldiers are, at that point, still on occupied soil. Because the collapse is inevitable.

There’s no predicting exactly when that will happen, since relevant data is not available to anyone outside the Kremlin, and probably not to most people inside the Kremlin. But if Ukraine can keep the pressure up, which they can with our help, it will happen.

在某种程度上，他们会陷入德国在第一次世界大战结束时的状态：难以养活民众，难以装备军队，不得不放弃战斗，即便他们的士兵仍然在被占领的土地上抗争。因为崩溃已经不可避免。

目前我们还无法准确预测这种情况何时会发生，因为除了克里姆林宫，无人能获得相关数据，克里姆林宫内部的大多数人可能也无法获得相关数据。但如果乌克兰能够在我们的帮助下继续施压，这种情况是有可能发生的。

Sean Watts

Eventually, yes. In the short term, no. In the short term Russia is losing officers, enlisted men and equipment much faster than they can replace them.

最终会的，但短期内还不会。短期内，俄罗斯军官、士兵和装备的牺牲速度远远快于他们的补给速度。

Zsolt Pamuki

Not anytime soon. Russia accumulated huge currency and gold reserves before the war. According to a quick Google search they still have more than half a trillion USD worth currency and a bit more than 2300 tons of gold reserves. On the other side Ukraine is basically bankrupt and only Western financial aid packages kee her afloat.

Also Russia managed to force the AFU into a war of attrition and Ukraine has no chance to win such a war as Russia has air and artillery superiority, more manpower and more war materials, so they can slowly grind down the AFU to the bone.

短期内不会。俄罗斯在战前积累了巨额的货币和黄金储备。根据谷歌的搜索结果，俄罗斯仍然拥有价值超过5000亿美元的货币和2300多吨的黄金储备。另一方面，乌克兰基本上已经破产，只能依赖西方的经济援助计划才能得以维持。

此外，俄罗斯成功地迫使乌克兰空军进入消耗战，乌克兰没有机会打赢这样的战争，因为俄罗斯拥有空中和炮兵优势，拥有更多的人力和更多的战争物资，所以他们可以慢慢收拾空军。

Neoprene

Wars are won with weapons and ammunition not money. As the EU and NATO at the moment learn the hard way. Russia will only withdraw from Ukraine (if they do it at all) after they will have won the war. Give or take another siy months.

战争靠的是武器和弹药，不是金钱。正如欧盟和北约目前所吸取的教训一样。俄罗斯只有在赢得战争后才会从乌克兰撤军(如果他们真的能获胜)，我估计得再过六个月左右吧。

Try to use Facts, not Hearsay.

Yes a lot of people do not understand the sizes of the NATO countries economies compared to the Russian economy.

NATOs is = 45% if the global economy,

Russia's is ranked 11th in the world, even little old Britain is 6th.

Putin keeps digging himself and his country deeper and deeper into debt and trouble, eventually the money will run out.

是的，很多人都不了解，北约国家的经济规模比俄罗斯大多少。

北约占全球经济总量的45%，

俄罗斯排在世界第11位，但单单一个弹丸之地的英国就排在第6位了。

普京让自己和他的国家在债务和麻烦中越陷越深，最终会把钱都败光的。

Jeremy Cole

In time. The current Russian situation is unsustainable, not just from the lives and treasure poured in to Ukraine, but also from the loss of access to western specialists and precision materials. Its one thing to try and do without BMWs or McDonalds, its another thing entirely to do with replacement robotics and chipsets for your manufacturing plants.

The question is how long, and what shape this decline will take. Already we’ve seen Russia choose to report obviously fake economic stats, so we know the position is bad enough that they have to lie about it. But it is possible that Russia could linger on for a long time before things collapse.

很快了。俄罗斯目前的局势是不可持续的，不仅因为各国的兵力和财富涌入乌克兰，还因为俄罗斯无法获得西方专家和精密材料的资源。没有宝马和麦当劳是一回事，但完全用机器人和芯片组改造工厂又是另一回事了。

问题是这种衰退将持续多久，将以何种形式出现。我们发现俄罗斯披露了明显作假的经济数据，所以我们知道情况肯定已经很糟了，他们不得不撒谎。但在事情彻底崩盘之前，俄罗斯可能还会坚持很长一段时间。

Some people predicted that decline would happen in 2023, that was extremely optimistic. National economies aren’t that fragile. There have been predictions of 2024, but I suspect that feels like the same mistake, defaulting to 12 month from now, then just bum that another 12 months down the line when it happens. But I do suspect that by the end of 2024, if it hasn’t started already we will start to have seen the signs, and have a better idea if this will be a slow, contained restriction or a genuine collapse.

有人预测2023年会出现衰退，这已经非常乐观了。国家经济并没有那么脆弱。有人预测2024年，但我怀疑这也犯了同样的错误，默认12个月后，然后又再次推迟12个月。但我确实怀疑，到2024年底，即便它还没有开始衰退，我们也会开始发现迹象，我们就会知道这到底是一个缓慢的、可控的限制还是真正的崩溃。

Michael Wakefield

They’re jacking up alcohol taxes next year, so that will bring in billions.

But they’re projecting a deficit of $9.5 billion (US), and 39% of spending will be on the war.

For reference, the US economy grew by about 1 Russian economy in each of the last two years.

他们明年要提高酒税，此举会给俄罗斯带来数十亿的收入。

但他们预计财政赤字会达到95亿美元，其中39%的开支将用于战争。

作为参考，在过去的两年里，美国经济每年增长大约是俄罗斯经济的1倍。

Russell Miller

No, there is no indication of Russia running out of anything or withdrawing from the war in Ukraine.

It is only western nations wishful thinking.

不，目前还没有迹象表明俄罗斯已经耗尽所有资源，或者从乌克兰战争中撤军。

这只是西方国家一厢情愿的想法。

Roland Bartetzko

It's difficult to give a date, even an approxmate one. Most of the knowledgeable Ukrainians I spoke to expect an end to all major combat operations by the summer of next year.

很难给出一个准确的日期，甚至也给不出一个大概的日期。我和知识渊博的乌克兰人聊过这个问题，他们中的大多数都预计明年夏天所有大型战斗都会告终。