Is America technologically so far behind China that the Chinese will soon be able to annihilate their fleets in the Pacific, and in the sea around China?

美国是否已经在技术上远远落后于中国了，中国很快就能在太平洋和中国海域消灭美国的舰队了吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Victor Luke

The US has been quietly upgrading its weaponry so that a US aircraft carrier doesn’t even have to be in the Pacific Ocean for the US to sink the entire Chinese fleet. Bombers flying from bases on the US mainland can do the job. The long range bombers with long range stealth anti ship/land strike missiles can reach every target in the Pacific or coast.

美国一直在悄悄升级武器装备，美国航母甚至都不用出现在太平洋上就能够击沉整个中国舰队了。从美国本土基地起飞的轰炸机就可以完成这项任务。携带远程隐形反舰/对地打击导弹的远程轰炸机可以击中太平洋或海岸的所有目标。

Hypocritic Westerner

Perhaps only westerners don't know China has long had the ability to destroy any invader’s fleets and bases in the Pacific.

也许只有西方人不知道吧，中国早就有能力摧毁太平洋上所有入侵者的舰队和基地了。

Bill Langston

PRC technology is about 5 X behind US, UK, Japanese and S Korean technology. While the brags and boasts and puffs it’s chest up with overheated air, the US, UK, Japanese and S Korea keep their big mouths mostly shut.

Believe the propaganda at your own risk. The PRC may be able to get through to a US carrier with a missile. Maybe. If they do all that will get the PRC is a war of annihilation that the cannot win.

中国的技术比美国、英国、日本和韩国的技术落后了5倍。中国夸夸其谈的时候，美国、英国、日本和韩国都沉默以对。

如果你相信中国的宣传，那么后果就自负吧。中国也许能够用导弹打中美国航母。只是也许。如果他们真的能做到，中国就要遭遇一场他们无法打赢的灭国之战。

Bill Esker

LOL! Wow! almost ALL Chinese Military technology is based on info stolen from the West and Russia. We have seen how bad Russian tech is in Ukraine. Bad news for China. Now China can no longer steal high tech from the US, because we have finally tightened that up, so they will have to start their own innovations. Figure at least b another decade to achieve parity. Of course by then the US will continue to innovate its military tech too.

哈哈！哇哦！中国几乎所有的军事技术都是从西方和俄罗斯窃取来的。俄罗斯的技术在乌克兰战场上的表现有多糟糕，我们都有目共睹了。这对中国来说是个坏消息。现在中国已经无法再从美国窃取高科技了，因为我们终于收紧了政策，所以中国不得不自己着手创新。中国预计至少得再过10年才能赶上美国。当然，等到那个时候，美国早就继续升级其军事技术了。

Michael Arndt

Most military experts think aircraft carriers are pointless in modern warfare:

大多数军事专家认为在现代战争中，航空母舰毫无作用：

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-aircraft-carriers-useless-war-china-taiwan/

Because the US escalated the Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia has captured NATO weaponry and designed new weapons systems that will be more effective against that NATO weaponry.

According to Scott Ritter, Russia has developed submersible drones that could probably sink a US aircraft carrier.

由于美国持续刺激俄乌战争，俄罗斯缴获了北约的武器，并设计了新的武器系统，可以更有效地对抗北约的武器装备。

根据斯科特·里特的说法，俄罗斯已经研发出能够击沉美国航空母舰的无人潜航器了。

I don't think technology is America's problem. I think pissing away US taxpayer dollars on wars is the problem. Whereas China is building modern infrastructure for the 21st century, the US has relatively shitty infrastructure. Furthermore, the US military budget and the interest on the US debt will consume the entire US discretionary budget in two years. Without cuts to the military budget, the US will not have money for infrastructure, education, research, Veterans' benefits, and many other programs. Both US political parties have fucked the US.

我认为科技并不是美国的症结所在。我认为把纳税人的钱浪费在战争上才是美国的大问题。中国正在为21世纪建设现代基础设施，而美国的基础设施相对老旧。此外，美国的军事预算和美国债务的利息将在两年内耗尽美国所有的可自由支配预算。如果不削减军事预算，美国就没有资金用于基础设施、教育、研究、退伍军人福利和许多其他项目了。美国的两个政党都把美国搞得乌烟瘴气一团乱。

Fred Golden

Well lets say that China does take a bold step and do what Japan did in 1941.

What is the next move China will make?

What will America do to retaliate? Perhaps stop importing anything from China.

好吧，让我们假设中国迈出了大胆的一步，也干了日本在1941年做过的蠢事。

那么中国下一步将采取什么行动？

美国将如何报复？也许美国会禁止从中国进口任何商品。

Europe and Canada will also stop importing stuff from China. So the unemployment in China will increase a lot. Maybe the business owners in China will decide the military screwed this up.

So it can be devastating to China economy if they really piss off America.

欧洲和加拿大也不会从中国进口商品，中国的失业率会大幅上升。也许中国的企业主会认为都是军队惹的祸。

所以，如果他们真的惹恼了美国，可能会对中国经济造成毁灭性的后果。

Dan T.

From the announcements of China, and the relative quiet of the US, I can easily see how one might believe this, but the question is actually a counter-factual one. There are a few things at play here. One factor is that various institutions in the US, like the US Navy, have a vested interest in playing up the “Chinese threat”. The scarier they can make China look, the more money Congress will give them to build more ships. Another is that the the US military downplays it's technological achievements, or keeps it an outright secret. The US would prefer no one knows the full capabilities of the US military, until it's unleashed on someone. On the other hand, China likes to brag about its achievements. Much like Russia, they routinely overstate their capabilities.

Part of that is simply because they are a state, and doing so increases the sense of pride and nationalism in the , and part of it is that they are ho it provides some deterrent effect to the US.

从中国的声明和美国的沉默中，我清楚地知道了人们为什么会相信这一点，但这个问题其实是一个反事实思维的问题。

其中有几件事发挥了作用，其一，美国的各种机构，如美国海军，都为了既定利益大力渲染“中国威胁论”。他们让中国描绘得越可怕，美国国会就会拨给他们越多的资金来建造越多的船只。

其二，美国军方淡化了自己的技术成果，或者完全保密。美国希望在对敌人使出绝招之前，没人知道美国军队的全部实力。

其三，中国喜欢吹嘘自己的技术成果。他们和俄罗斯一样，经常夸大自己的实力。

有部分原因是因为他们是一个主义国家，这样做可以增加他们的自豪感和民族主义意识，还有部分原因是他们希望对美国产生某种威慑作用。

The reality of the situation is this: China is behind the US technologically. By a decade or more in most areas. The US is a technological powerhouse, and a world leader in nearly every field. China has been playing catch-up for decades, and probably still will be for quite awhile to come. They may never catch-up. The Soviet Union never did. They were behind the US for the entire Cold War, and Russia is arguably even further behind today than the Soviets ever were. They rely almost exclusively on Western components for their most advanced weapons systems. China produces more of its own components, but they still rely on the West for a lot of the ability to do so. There's a big difference between playing catch-up and copying/stealing from other countries to produce your own equipment, and actually innovating brand new home grown equipment of your own. It remains to be seen if China can do so, and truly become a military on par with the US. Because right now they are not.

但现实情况是中国在技术上落后于美国，在某些领域落后了十年甚至更长时间。美国是一个技术强国，几乎在所有领域都处于世界领先地位。

几十年来，中国一直在追赶美国，可能在未来很长一段时间内仍将如此。他们可能永远也追不上美国。

苏联就从未成功过。苏联在整个冷战时期都落后于美国，而今天的俄罗斯比当年的苏联落后得更多了。

他们最先进的武器系统几乎完全依赖西方的零部件。中国生产了许多国产零部件，但还是依赖西方的很多能力来做到这一点。

追赶和复刻/窃取其他国家的设备来生产自己的设备，和真的自行研发出全新国产设备之间存在着很大的区别。

中国能否做到这一点，成为一支真正能够与美国平起平坐的军队，还有待观察。因为现在他们还不行。

As for the last part of your question, about the only way China could do that is with nuclear weapons. They don't have the conventional firepower to do so. It's unclear if any of their anti-ship ballistic missiles can even hit a maneuvering target at sea like an aircraft carrier. It also doesn't entirely matter, because to hit a US ship, they have to be able to see, track, and target that ship. The US has the capability to find, track and destroy any asset that would allow China to do so. The US doesn't have the world's most capable and sophisticated near-earth space object tracking system in the world just for show.

至于你问题中的最后一部分，中国唯一能依赖的就是核武器。他们的常规武器无法实现这一目标。目前还不清楚中国的反舰弹道导弹能否击中航空母舰这样的海上机动目标。

但这完全不重要，因为要击中一艘美国船只，他们就必须能够看到、跟踪并瞄准那艘船。美国有能力发现、跟踪和摧毁中国具备这一性能的所有武器装备。

美国拥有世界上最强大、最先进的近地空间物体跟踪系统，这可不是为了摆样子装好看的。

Andrew McGreevy

No, but for the best information on your question, go to the website of the United States Naval Institute, USNI , and the website of Andrew S. Erickson. These sites provide excellent coverage of the powers of the Chinese Navy and the United States Navy.

不知道，但针对你的问题，你可以去美国海军研究所的网站和安德鲁·S·埃里克森的网站搜搜看。这些网站详细报道了中国海军和美国海军的实力。

Ben Burnelson (GBB)

Where do you think a large number of Chinese got their technology training? In U.S. universities. Why all of sudden would we fall behind them? Besides, do you have some kind of spy apparatus that allows you to determine each country’s technological progress since that information is classified?

你知道大批中国人在哪里接受的技术培训？在美国各所大学里。为什么我们会突然落后于他们？另外，你们是不是有某种间谍设备，可以让你们发掘每个国家的技术进步？这些信息可都是高等机密啊。

Suchindranath Aiyer

China was capable of annihilating the USAnian surface fleet within 1,000 KMs of China five years ago.

They do not have domain control over the entire Pacific.

They also do not have domain control under sea beyond their sensor barriers that extends to their exclusive economic zone and disputed seas.

五年前，中国就有能力在距离中国1000公里的范围内歼灭美国水上舰队了。

他们还无法控制整个太平洋。

他们也还没有对延伸到中国专属经济区和争议海域以外海域的控制权。

Jose Bustamante

Can the Chinese Navy soon overtake and overwhelm the US Navy?

As other answers have pointed out, China is very far behind in the number of aircraft carriers. But it goes further than that. China’s one carrier has only half the capacity of a single US carrier, and it cannot launch and retrieve truly high performance aircraft. And the aircraft are yet another part of the story.

中国海军能很快赶超并打败美国海军吗？

正如其他答案所指出的，中国在航母数量上远远落后于美国，但问题远不止于此。中国一艘航母的载重量只有美国航母的一半，而且它无法实现真正高性能飞机的起降。而飞机又是另一个问题了。

As anyone could guess, the United States Air Force is the largest and most advanced air force in the world, by far. Most people think Russia has the second largest and China the third largest. Nope. The United States Navy has the second largest and most advanced air force in the world, larger than the land based air force of any country on the globe. China would have to catch up there as well.

But of course China doesn’t really want to, nor need to. China does not have aspirations to become a military superpower globally. They just want to be an economic superpower globally, and have enough military power to dominate their own sphere of influence. Both of which they have pretty much already achieved.

是个人都猜得到，截止目前，美国空军是全球规模最大、最先进的空军。大多数人认为俄罗斯是第二大国，中国是第三大国。其实不是的。美国海军就拥有全球第二大和第二先进的空军，超过世界上任何国家的陆基空军。中国在这方面也必须迎头赶上。

当然，中国并没有这个意图，也不需要这么做。中国并没有成为全球军事超级大国的野心。他们只想成为全球经济超级大国，拥有足以保护自己势力范围的军事力量。中国已经实现这两个目标了。

Asim Qureshi

Will China's technology surpass America's?

中国的科技会超过美国吗？

A couple of weeks ago Trump called former US President Jimmy Carter for the first time.

Carter asked "do you know why?"

“Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody? None. And we have stayed at war."

Carter said the US is "the most warlike nation in the history of the world".

"We have wasted, I think, $3 trillion. China has not wasted a single penny on war, and that's why they're ahead of us. In almost every way.”

几周前，特朗普第一次给美国前总统吉米·卡特打电话。

卡特问特朗普：“你知道为什么吗？”

“你知道自1979年以来，中国与其他国家打了多少次仗吗？一次也没有。而我们一直处于战争状态。”

卡特说，美国是“世界历史上最好战的国家”。

“我认为，我们已经在战争上浪费了3万亿美元，而中国一分钱都没有浪费，这就是他们领先的原因。他们几乎在各个领域都领先了。”

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