In your opinion, will China become a developed country before 2030?  Please be objective.

您认为中国能在2030年前成为发达国家吗？请客观一点。

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Gully Foyled

Define “developed country”.

The OECD is generally regarded as the club for developed countries.

The poorest members of the OECD such as Mexco have similar levels of GDP at PPP to China now.

So if you consider countries like Mexco developed then China is arguably already developed.

先定义一下何为“发达国家”。

经合组织通常被视为发达国家的俱乐部。

经合组织中最贫穷的成员国，如墨西哥，目前的购买力平价GDP水平和中国相当。

所以如果你认为墨西哥这样的国家是发达国家，那么中国也可以说是发达国家。

If however you’re using “developed country” as meaning “similar per capita income to North American or western European countries” that’s more like $50,000 per capita and at 5% per annum growth that’s take around 15 years.

This isn’t just an academic question. Under the WTO rules, develo countries get a bunch of concessions on stuff like tariffs. But there’s no formal definition of what constitutes a develo countries. Members self-identify as developed or develo countries. If China were to voluntarily give up its develo country status that would ease a bunch of trade tensions.

但如果你说的“发达国家”需要具备“和北美或西欧国家的人均收入水平”，高于人均5万美元，即便以每年5%的速度继续增长，也大概需要15年。

这不仅仅是一个学术问题。根据世贸组织的规则，发展中国家在关税等方面享受了一系列优惠。但是对发展中国家并没有正式的定义，而是成员国自我认定为发达国家或发展中国家。如果中国自愿放弃发展中国家地位，将缓解一系列贸易紧张局势。

Philip Wong

The US GDP per capita is 6.41 times greater than that of China. The US GDP growth rate is 2.5%, while China's is 5%. It will take approxmately 77 years (calculated as ln(6.41)/ln(1.05/1.025)) before China's GDP per capita matches that of the US. As China may struggle to maintain its growth rate of 5%, it is anticipated that the actual time required may be longer.

美国的人均GDP是中国的6.41倍。美国的GDP增长率为2.5%，而中国为5%。中国的人均GDP大约需要77年(按ln(6.41)/ln(1.05/1.025)计算)才能赶上美国。鉴于中国可能难以保持5%的增长率，实际所需的时间可能会拖得更长。

The US is considered a very well-developed country, yet it faces numerous challenges: economic inequality, inflation, stagnant real wages for the last forty years, costly healthcare, an expensive education system, student loan debt totaling $1.7 trillion with an average balance of $38,000, racial inequality, mass incarceration, the militarization of police, deteriorating infrastructure, housing affordability, homelessness, the opioid epidemic, and gun violence.

Let's hope that China does not face these problems as it becomes more "developed."

美国被视为高度发达的国家，但它也面临着许多挑战：经济不平等、通货膨胀、四十年来工资停滞不前、昂贵的医疗保健、昂贵的教育体系、总计1.7万亿美元的学生贷款(平均余额为3.8万美元)、种族不平等、监狱爆满、警察军事化、基础设施恶化、住房负担、流浪者、鸦片类药物流行和枪支暴力。

我们希望中国在走向“发达”国家的过程中不会面临这些问题。

Yaozhou

It's basically impossible.

If we go by purchasing power parity, China's manufactured goods, clothes and shoes, and electronic products are the cheapest in the world;

You can buy clothes and shoes for a few dollars.

It is also possible to purchase a phone, computer or television for $100.

基本上是不可能的。

如果按购买力平价计算，中国的制成品、服装鞋、电子产品是世界上最便宜的

你可以只花几美元就买到衣服和鞋子。

100美元就可以买到手机、电脑或电视。

But even so, our milk powder and beef prices are still the most expensive in the world.

Most importantly, with such a large population, our per capita educational resources are very low, and the difficulty of the entrance exam for higher education is very high.

Especially recently, with the launch of OpenAI's generative AI model Sora, Google's release of the world's strongest open source big model Gemma, Nvidia's stock price skyrocketed

但即便如此，我们的奶粉和牛肉价格仍然是全世界最贵的。

最重要的是，我们的人口这么多，人均教育资源很低，高等教育的入学考试难度很高。

尤其是近来，随着OpenAI的AI生成模型Sora的推出，谷歌发布了全球最强开源模型Gemma，英伟达的股价暴涨

Almost everyone blames the government for its incompetence, and the general consensus is that the government's rigid policies have led to the backwardness of AI and software.

Whether it's Microsoft or SAP, Autodesk, PTC Pro/ENGINEER, Siemens PLM Software, ANSYS, DCS, SCADA, Oracle, IBM Maxmo, it's still a dark cloud over China's technology sector.

Many intellectuals have already called for the abolition of the GWF and the end of its protection of domestic companies, which are hardly groundbreaking in terms of technology.

Many of  Internet giants have become giant babies.

几乎所有人都在指责政府的无能，普遍的共识是，政府的僵化政策导致了人工智能和软件的落后。

无论是微软还是SAP、Autodesk、PTC Pro/ENGINEER、西门子PLM软件、ANSYS、DCS、SCADA、甲骨文、IBM Maxmo，仍是笼罩在中国科技行业上空的乌云。

许多知识分子已经呼吁废除防火墙，结束对本土公司的保护，这些公司在技术上几乎没有突破性。

许多互联网巨头已经成了巨婴。

John Bint

According to World Bank data, China currently has a “purchasing power” GDP per capita of about $21k, broadly similar to Colombia or Iran or Libya, and notably lower than developed countries where Quora is popular, such as the USA ($76k), UK ($54k), EU (54k), Canada ($58k) and so on.

I guess the question here is, what figure would you take as a threshold for a “Developed country”. Is it $30k (Chile or Kazakhstan ) $40k (Latvia or Hungary), or what figure should we use? There doesn’t seem to be any official definition of “developed”, in PP GDP PC.

根据世界银行的数据，中国目前的人均GDP“购买力”约为2.1万美元，与哥伦比亚、伊朗或利比亚相当，明显低于Quora上主流发达国家，如美国(7.6万美元)、英国(5.4万美元)、欧盟(5.4万美元)、加拿大(5.8万美元)等。

我想问题在于你会把什么数字作为“发达国家”的门槛，是3万美元（智利或哈萨克斯坦）还是4万美元（拉脱维亚或匈牙利），或者我们应该采用哪个数字？官方似乎度么有对“发达国家”的国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值进行过定义。

For the sake of setting a low threshold, let’s pick $30k as a kind of “moderately developed” figure. To achieve this within the next 6 years, China would need to grow its Purchasing Power GPDPC by nearly 50%, or about 7-8% per year compound.

I would find it entirely credible (but less than “probable”) that China could grow its absolute GDPPC by 7% on average. But as its economy grows, the cost of goods bought by its own people will rise.

如果要设定一个较低的门槛，我们可以选择3万美元作为“中等发达国家”的门槛。若要在未来6年内实现这一目标，中国的购买力、国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值需要增长近50%，即每年复合增长约7-8%。

我认为中国绝对GDP平均增长率达到7%是完全可以接受的(但不太“可能”)。但随着中国经济的增长，中国人民购买商品的成本将会上升。

E. Garcia

Their current trajectory doesn’t seem to support China becoming a developed country by 2030. They have a good shot but now some of the structural issues are exposed. China has also been really aggressive geopolitically which is isolating them internationally and especially with their neighbors. I think with the US shifting manufacturing bases away from China will have a profound impact on their growth. If they grow at 6%, by 2030, at best they will be a middle income country.

中国目前的发展轨迹似乎无法让中国在2030年成为发达国家。他们有很好的机会，但现在有些结构性问题暴露了出来。他们在地缘政治上也非常咄咄逼人，在国际上尤其在邻国间被孤立了。我认为，随着美国逐步将制造业基地从中国转移出去，将对中国的增长产生深远的影响。如果他们的增长率达到6%，到2030年，他们最多也只能成为中等收入国家。

Toseef Malik

Predicting the future development of a country involves numerous factors and uncertainties. As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, China has been making significant economic progress and advancements. However, it's challenging to definitively state whether China will become a developed country before 2030.

预测一个国家的未来发展涉及许多因素和不确定因素。据我所知，截至2022年1月，中国已经取得了重大的经济进步和进步。但中国能否在2030年之前成为发达国家，谁也无法保证。

China faces challenges such as addressing income inequality, environmental concerns, and transitioning to a more innovation-driven economy. The outcome depends on how effectively the country manages these challenges and sustains economic growth. Continuous geopolitical, economic, and social changes can influence the trajectory of China's development.

For the most accurate and up-to-date assessment, it is recommended to refer to recent analyses and reports from economic experts and organizations.

中国面临着诸如解决收入不平等、环境问题以及向创新驱动型经济转型等挑战。结果取决于中国如何有效地应对这些挑战并保持经济增长。地缘政治、经济和社会的不断变化都会影响中国的发展轨迹。

想了解最准确和最新的评估，建议参考经济专家和组织的最新分析和报告。

Gisa Jähnichen

What do you need to be developed? If you think that it is still a poor and backward country, you are completely wrong. Please, be objective.

要成为发达国家需要什么？如果你认为中国仍然是一个贫穷落后的国家，那你就大错特错了。请客观一点。

Perception

Sure I will be Objective ,Developed country should have some sort of context like developed in sense of happiness Index or Military or GDP Per capita[average salary of a person in that country] or any other human development index checkmark . Since now we are in 2024 your question asks my opinion on china after 6 years . So there are chances of china becoming a developed country in and around 6–12 years but there are still some places were china lack which is happiness index , Press freedom , Privacy etc and the declining Demography of china is also a concern to be noticed and checked .

当然，我会客观地说，发达国家应该有一些表现因素，比如发达的幸福指数、军事或人均GDP(人均工资)或其他人类发展指数。现在是2024年，你问的是我对6年后的中国的看法。所以中国有可能在6-12年内成为发达国家，但他们仍有一些地方不足之处，比如幸福指数、新闻报道、公民隐私等方面，

中国人口的下降也是一个值得注意的问题。

China is a a very very strong military force and in few cases even surpasses that of US and those are :-

中国是一支非常非常强大的军事力量，在有些方面甚至已经超过了美国：

Military size: China has the largest military in the world, with 2.8 million soldiers, sailors, and airmen. The US military has 1.4 million serving members.

Active-duty combatants: China has the highest number of active-duty combatants in the world, with 2,185,000 members.

Navy: China's navy is the largest in East Asia and has more battle force ships than the US Navy.

军事规模：中国拥有世界上最大的军队，有280万陆海空军人。美国军队有140万现役军人。

现役战斗人员：中国拥有世界上最多的现役战斗人员，共有218.5万人。

海军：中国海军是东亚最大的海军，拥有比美国海军更多的战斗舰艇。

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles: China has more Intercontinental Ballistic Missile launchers than the US.

Nuclear warheads: China's stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to quadruple by 2035, bringing it close parity with the US.

Intelligence: China has developed a robust over-the-horizon (OTH) intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability

洲际弹道导弹：中国拥有比美国更多的洲际弹道导弹发射器。

核弹头：到2035年，中国的核弹头存量预计将翻两番，接近美国的水平。

情报：中国已经发展了强大的超视距情报、监视和侦察能力。

Manjunath123

Predicting the future development of a country, especially one as complex and dynamic as China, involves many variables and uncertainties. While China has made significant economic progress over the past few decades, whether it will achieve "developed" status by 2030 is subject to debate.

Some factors to consider:

预测一个国家—尤其是像中国—这样一个充满活力的复杂国家的未来，涉及很多变数和不确定性。虽然中国在过去几十年里取得了显著的经济进步，但中国在2030年能否达到“发达国家”水平仍存在争议。

以下是需要考虑的几点因素：

Economic Growth: China has sustained high economic growth rates for several decades, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. However, sustaining this growth at the same pace becomes increasingly challenging.

经济增长：几十年来，中国经济一直保持高速增长，带领数亿人摆脱了贫困，但保持同样的增长速度越来越难了。

Technological Advancement: China has been investing heavily in research and development, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and renewable energy. Technological innovation is crucial for transitioning to a developed economy.

Structural Reforms: China faces challenges related to its state-led economic model, such as inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises and issues with financial regulation. Implementing structural reforms to address these issues will be critical for sustained growth.

科技进步：中国一直在大力投资科技研发，尤其是在人工智能、生物技术和可再生能源等领域。科技创新对于经济体转型至关重要。

结构改革：中国面临着与国有经济模式相关的挑战，例如国有企业效率低下和金融监管问题。实施结构性改革来解决这些问题，对经济的持续增长至关重要。

Environmental Sustainability: China's rapid industrialization has led to severe environmental degradation. Addressing pollution and transitioning to a more sustainable development model will be essential for long-term prosperity.

Socioeconomic Factors: Development encompasses not just economic indicators but also factors like education, healthcare, and social welfare. China will need to continue improving in these areas.

环境可持续性：中国的快速工业化导致了严重的环境退化。解决污染问题并向更可持续的发展模式过渡，对实现长期繁荣至关重要。

社会经济因素：发展不仅包括经济指标，还包括教育、医疗保健和社会福利等因素。中国需要在这些方面继续改进。