What do you think about Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Minister of State for Electronics and IT, stating that India will be "significantly ahead" of China in semiconductor design, research, and manufacturing in the next decade or so?

电子和信息技术国务部长拉杰夫·钱德拉塞卡尔称，未来十年内印度将在半导体设计、研究和制造方面“大幅领先”中国，你怎么看？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Hussain Rizwan

It's certainly an ambitious vision put forth by Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar. The semiconductor industry is crucial for technological advancement and national competitiveness. While India has made strides in various sectors, catching up with China's semiconductor prowess will require substantial investment, infrastructure development, and a highly skilled workforce. If India can strategically focus its efforts and foster innovation through collaboration between government, academia, and industry, there's potential to realize significant progress in semiconductor design, research, and manufacturing. However, achieving a position significantly ahead of China within a decade will undoubtedly be a formidable challenge requiring sustained commitment and execution.

这肯定只能算是拉杰夫·钱德拉塞卡尔部长的雄心壮志啦。半导体产业是技术进步和国家竞争力的核心。虽然印度在各个领域都取得了长足的进步，但若想赶超中国的半导体实力，还需要大量的投资、基础设施建设和高技能的劳动力。如果印度能够战略性地集中精力，通过政府、学术界和工业界之间的合作来促进创新，就有可能在半导体设计、研究和制造方面取得重大进展。但要在十年内远超中国，无疑将是一项艰巨的挑战，需要持续的投入和执行。

Aaron Joseph

It’s a worthy ambition. India certainly has the talent. The problem has always been the enormous levels of corruption. Chipmaking is a very particular kind of business, which tends to have low margins. If the government can adopt a hands-off approach it is possible.

这是一个远大的目标。印度当然有半导体人才，但问题在于长期的严重腐败。芯片制造是一种非常特殊的业务，利润率往往不高。如果政府不干涉其中，这个目标是有可能实现的。

William Mays

I first noticed the scholarly work of Indian authors in the ‘Proceedings of the IRE’ in 1961 and then in the publications of the IEEE after merger of IRE & AIEE to form the IEEE.

This demonstrates the long history of relevant research and development in India. The predicted success is entirely plausable.

China has made huge investments, since the ‘Great Leap Forward’, in education and industry; they should not be ignored as a competitor.

我在1961年的《印度电气学会学报》上第一次看到印度作者的学术报告，后来又在电气与电子工程师协会的出版物上看到过印度作者的文章。

这表明印度很早就开始从事相关研究和开发了。印度是极有可能取得成功的。

自从“”以来，中国在教育和工业方面进行了巨大的投资；他们是印度的竞争对手，不容小觑。

Geoffrey Mak

When Chinese back then came out to announce the goals & targets for “Made in China 2025” in 2015, it talked about the goals & targets, that the country is committed to achieve Industrialization 4.0+, a level currently US, Germany, Japan are in, in specific industries such as semi-conductor & energy….etc. We just stepped into 2024 & there are many industries already surpassed the goal. This can only be made possible with government driving it with massive investments, not by any single sector, company or individual.

在2015年，时任中国宣布“中国制造2025”的目标时，谈到了中国正致力于实现工业化4.0+，要达到美国、德国、日本目前在半导体和能源等特定行业所处的水平……我们现在刚刚踏入2024年，但许多行业都已经提前完成了这个目标。要想实现这一目标，不能依靠某个行业、公司或个人，只有通过政府进行大规模投资，才有可能取得成功。

To be leading in the semi-conductor industry, you need to have capabilities in many areas such as:

Chip Design

Software

Production Process

High End Raw Materials

DUV/ EV Machines

要在半导体行业处于领先地位，您需要在许多领域具备能力，例如：

芯片设计

软件

生产过程

高端原材料

DUV/ EV机器

When China mastered Chip Design (Huawei), & develo its 12nm manufacturing process (World leading TSMC was at 7nm moving to 5nm or lower), US slapped sanctions to Huawei without reasons (i.e. Huawei has done nothing wrong) & arrested their CFO, daughter of founder Ren Zhengfei in 2018. Its slowed down China for 2 years but now they have achieved breakthrough in 2, 3 & some breakthrough in 4 & 5.

当中国掌握了芯片设计(华为)并研发出12纳米制造工艺(世界第一的台积电已经从7纳米升级到5纳米甚至更高精度)时，美国毫无理由地对华为实施制裁(华为并没有做错任何事)，还在2018年扣押了华为的首席财务官。制裁让中国的芯片设计进度放缓了2年，但现在他们在2-3年内就取得了技术突破，并会在4-5年内继续取得一些突破。

Has India government pledged such commitment with specific targets & goals?

Does India has such “base” in terms of capital market, government policy, top rated talent to achieve & exceed what China has achieved, in last 10 years?

Do you think US would invest & support India to climb up the ladder? If so, how? Any historical references on US directly supporting another country to build their high tech industry?

Have you seen US forcing TSMC to India to setup factory, all the while they already pushed them to move to US, & even US lack the skilled labour to operate the factory?

印度政府有制定过明确的目标吗？

在资本市场、政府政策、顶尖人才方面，印度拥有追平甚至超越中国过去10年内所取得的成就的“基础”吗？

你觉得美国会为印度投资，支持印度进步吗？如果会，美国会怎么做？你在历史上看到过美国直接支持其他国家打造高科技产业的事例吗？

美国有逼迫台积电到印度建工厂吗？他们倒是一直要求台积电搬到美国，难道美国也缺乏熟练工人来运营工厂吗？

From my limited observations, the answers to above questions are No.

以我有限的见识来看，以上问题的答案都是否定的。

Albert Dye

Not if they hold on to the American coattails - the American elite will never allow India to get strong enough to challenge them. The American elite just want to use India against China.

如果他们追上美国，美国的精英绝不会允许印度强大到威胁自己的地位。美国精英只想利用印度对付中国。

LS Ganapati

There are very positive indications that what our leaned minister has stated will be seen in reality as the investments are meticulously laid out after considerable deliberations. Forget about the negative voices from opposition and scared quarters.

有非常积极的迹象表明，我们部长所描绘的未来将会变成现实，因为政府是经过深思熟虑后才进行投资的。别在意反对派和胆小者的负面评论。

Mark Christie

Where will they get the resources from? Semiconductors produce huge amounts of waste water India does not have. Where is the energy infrastructure? Chips are ruined by a millisecond of power disruption. Also where is the supply chains and logistic infrastructure? Think about the problems associated with the project, fix those problems then start thinking about the project.

他们要从哪里获得资源呢？半导体生产会产生大量废水，而印度没有水资源。能源基础设施在哪里？电力中断一毫秒，就足以毁掉芯片。此外，供应链和物流基础设施又在哪里？你们思考一下和项目相关的问题，解决这些问题，然后再开始考虑项目实施吧。

Saleem Shaikh

I will answer your question in two parts.

Comparison between India and China:

The only comparison between India and China at this point in time is with regards to their population. On all other aspects of progress, development, economy, scientific prowess, average national IQ, quality of leadership, patent rights, manufacturing, production, R & D, defense, per capita income, GDP, foreign exchange reserves, global influence, etc. etc. China is much ahead. Now those are well established facts. India does not compare to China which is much ahead and the gap in increasing every day.

我要分成两个部分来回答你的问题。

印度和中国的比较：

目前，印度和中国之间唯一可以比较的就是人口。在社会进步、发展、经济、科学实力、国民平均智商、领导素质、专利权、制造、生产、研发、国防、人均收入、GDP、外汇储备、全球影响力等所有其他方面，中国都遥遥领先，这都是不容置喙的事实。印度无法和中国相提并论，中国领先太多了，而且两国差距还在一直扩大。

About the Indian Minister’s statement:

These days Indian leaders often make unrealistic promises to their people to grab votes and win elections. Their promises have no basis, facts or figures, logic, reasoning, rational, etc. All goody goody things according to them will happen in the distant future but people must vote for them right now based on those hollow future promises. Things are not achieved merely by spelling them out. It needs capable leadership, plan of action, resource commitment, infrastructure, budget allocations, road maps, expertise, R & D, conducive environment, etc. etc. that has to be put in place to walk the talk. To me that statement is stupid, delusional, irresponsible and embarrassing at best.

关于印度部长的发言：

印度领导人经常向印度民众做出不切实际的承诺，希望换取民众的选票来赢得选举。他们的承诺没有依据、事实或数据、逻辑、推理、合理性等。根据他们的说法，一切美好的事都会在遥远的未来实现，但印度人现在就得为了这些空洞的承诺为他们投票。事情不可能动动嘴皮子就自己完成了。它需要有能力的领导、行动计划、资源保障、基础设施、预算分配、路线图、专业知识、研发、良好的环境等等，这些都必须先落实到位，才能做到“言必行，行必果”。在我看来，部长的言论不但愚蠢、虚妄，还不负责任、令人尴尬。

In conclusion, those statements are mere rhetoric for domestic consumption. India has a long way to go before dreaming of being ‘significantly ahead’ of China which is not possible in the foreseeable future except in terms of population numbers. China is miles ahead and getting further ahead with time.

总而言之，这些言论就是为了讨好印度民众的花言巧语。在痴心妄想着“大幅领先”中国之前，印度还有很长的路要走，但在可预见的未来，这个梦想是不可能实现的，印度能“大幅领先”中国的只有人口数量。中国遥遥领先着印度，而且随着时间的推移，差距会越拉越大。

Amanda Chen

How can India boast of surpassing China when even its most basic infrastructural capabilities are not up to China's level. China is already at the forefront of the world in many areas.

印度连最基本的基础设施都无法赶超中国，怎么敢这么厚颜无耻地吹嘘自己领先中国呢。中国在许多领域已经走在世界前列了。

Nathaniel

It is possible but how much RnD is India investing at the moment.

Politians can say what they want. I generally prefer to look at something I can track. Words cost nothing. Follow the money if you want to find out what will happen.

只能说有可能，但印度目前投入了多少研发资金呢？

政客们想说什么就说什么。我一般更喜欢有凭有证的东西。毕竟张嘴说话不花钱嘛。如果你想知道未来会怎样，那就关注钱的动向。

Alvin Lee

If you have worked with Indians before, you will understand what’s the meaning of “talk is cheap”.

India has had very good start and in much better position than China to achieve what China had achieved today. Why the next decade? Unless China has involved in warfare in the next decade or so or unless all the Chinese scientists suddenly become much lazier than the Indians. Do you think it’s possible? You tell me.

如果你跟印度人一起工作过，你就会明白“空谈误国”是什么意思。

印度曾经也有过不错的开局，可以比中国更容易获得如今中国所取得的成就。为什么说10年内？除非中国在此期间卷入战争，或者中国科学家都突然摆烂。但你觉得有可能吗？你自己想。

Michael Salvador

India is already ahead of China in IT, design, research and manufacturing of semi conductors and electronics. Many overseas firms moving away from China to India. Including Apple and others.

印度在半导体和电子产品的信息技术、设计、研究和制造方面已经领先于中国了。许多海外公司从中国迁往印度，包括苹果。

Thomas Choi

Just stop fooling around from some BS political scumbags. India will only be a mediocre country as long as no genuine Cultural Revolution within India, period.

别再被这些政治渣滓忽悠了。只要印度国内没有爆发真正的文 化大革命，印度就只会是一个平庸的国家。

Krishnamurthi Menon

India will never get ahead of China because China is not pre occupied with getting ahead of India. China is more concerned with what China should do to get ahead and to do what is best for China in the present and in the long term.

India has no plans or objectives that are focused on India’s long term economic needs or its scientific and industrial needs and growth objectives. Getting ahead of one’s neighbour is of itself not an objective.

印度永远不可能超过中国，因为中国根本没有把印度放在眼里。中国更关心的是中国要怎么做才能处于领先地位，怎么做对中国的现在和未来才是最好的。

印度并没有针对长期经济需求或科学和工业需求及增长目标制定计划。超越邻国，并不能算是一个目标。

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