In your opinion, will China become a developed country before 2030?  Please be objective.

您认为中国能在2030年前成为发达国家吗？请客观一点。

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Sharma RS

Beiing classifies itself as a "develo" country in the WTO. However, the World Bank and U.N. Development Program classify China as an "upper middle income" country, while the IMF calls the country an "emerging and develo economy."

Its economy has grown at an average of 9.8 percent since 1978, making it the fourth largest economy in the world.

中国在世贸组织中将自己定位为“发展中”国家。但世界银行和联合国开发计划署将中国归入了“中高收入”国家，国际货币基金组织称中国为“新兴和发展中经济体”。

1978年以来，中国经济的年均增长速度为9.8%，中国已成为世界第四大经济体。

Michael X

No, China has more population than all the developed countries combined + another 300 million. There isn't enough profitable industries to feed it, unless it takes them from other developed countries and turning other developed countries into develo countries. Currently China owns 33% of the world industrial production by value, that number had to reach over 50% in order for China to become a developed country. In other words, lifting another 500 million people to middle class is needed. There will never be another developed country without another round of industrial revolution, unless their population is small.

不，中国的人口比所有发达国家的人口总和还要多3亿。中国没有足够赚钱的产业来养活庞大的人口，除非能把赚钱的产业从其他发达国家引入中国，把其他发达国家降级成发展中国家。目前，中国的工业产值占全球总产值的的33%，中国若想成为发达国家，工业产值占全球总产值的占比必须达到50%以上。换而言之，中国还要再把5亿人口提升到中产阶级。如果没有经历新一轮工业革命，这个世界不会再出现新的发达国家，除非这个国家的人口很少。

UniQ TECH

China has taken critical steps in monetary development and advancement throughout the course of recent many years, lifting a huge number of individuals out of neediness and turning into the world's second-biggest economy. Notwithstanding, whether it will accomplish created country status by 2030 relies upon a few elements, including its capacity to address difficulties like pay imbalance, ecological supportability, development, mechanical headway, and international strains.

While it has gained exceptional headway, it actually wrestles with issues, for example, an extending abundance hole, ecological debasement, segment shifts, and underlying changes in its economy. Moreover, China's development direction might be impacted by international elements, exchange relations, and worldwide monetary patterns.

近年来，中国在经济发展和进步方面迈出了关键的一步，大量人口摆脱了贫困，中国跃升世界第二大经济体。尽管如此，中国能否在2030年之前取得发达国家的地位，取决于几个因素，其中包括了解决收入差距、生态可持续性、发展、机械升级和国际压力等问题的能力。

尽管中国取得了非凡的进展，但也仍在努力解决一些问题，例如不断扩大的资源缺口、生态退化、产业转移以及经济中的潜在变化。此外，中国的发展还可能受到国际因素、汇率关系和世界货币格局的影响。

The chinese has illustrated aggressive objectives in its improvement plans, including accomplishing "moderate flourishing" by 2020 and turning into a "completely modernized co unist country" by 2049. These objectives envelop different parts of advancement, including financial development, social government assistance, ecological security, and mechanical development.

Whether China can accomplish created country status by 2030 is unsure and relies heavily on how really it tends to its difficulties and executes changes. While China can possibly proceed with its monetary development and advancement direction, accomplishing created country status inside the following ten years might require supported endeavors and changes across different areas.

中国在发展规划中制定了激进的目标，比如到2020年要实现“适度繁荣”，到2049年实现“完全现代化的国家”。这些目标涵盖了在包括金融发展、社会政府援助、生态安全和机械升级等方面的提升。

中国能否在2030年之前实现发达国家，目前无法确定，在很大程度上取决于它如何真正地面对困难并推动变革。虽然中国有可能继续延续货币发展和前进方向，但在接下来的十年里，想要跻身发达国家，可能需要不同领域的支持和改变。

Tracey Obrien

Judging by your question you have never visited cities such as Shanghai or Beiing. They put many North American and European cities to shame!

Most micro chips and technology comes from China. Even my HP computer is made in China!

从你提出的问题来看，你肯定没去过上海或北京这样的城市。这些城市让许多北美和欧洲城市都相形见绌！

大多数微芯片和技术都来自中国。就连我的惠普电脑也是中国制造的！

Pradip Kumar Das

Predicting whether China will become a developed country before 2030 requires a complex analysis of various factors such as economic growth, political stability, technological advancement, and social development. It is important to consider that development is a multifaceted process and can be measured in different ways. Some experts believe that China is on track to become a developed country by 2030, while others argue that there are challenges and obstacles that may hinder its progress. It's essential to objectively examine all relevant factors to make an informed assessment.

预测中国能否在2030年前成为发达国家，需要对经济增长、政治稳定、技术进步和社会发展等各种因素进行复杂的分析。很重要的一点是我们要考虑到，发展是一个多方面的进程，可以用不同的方式来衡量。一些专家认为，中国有望在2030年成为发达国家，而另一些专家则认为，中国面临着阻碍发展的挑战和障碍。客观地检查所有相关因素，做出明智的评估是至关重要的。

A Mohamed Basheer

The economists now predict China's GDP growth to be 3.5% in 2030 and close to 1% by 2050, lower than previous projections.

Beiing classifies itself as a "develo" country in the WTO. However, the World Bank and U.N. Development Program classify China as an "upper middle income" country, while the IMF calls the country an "emerging and develo economy."

The issue here is that a developed country implies not only developed infrastructure, but also access to “developed” goods and services at all levels of society. This implies the industries and even the people themselves must be “developed”, and there's no shortcut for this.

经济学家们现在预测，2030年中国的GDP增长率将达到3.5%，2050年将至1%左右，低于此前的预测。

中国在世贸组织中将自己定位为“发展中”国家。但世界银行和联合国开发计划署将中国归入了“中高收入”国家，国际货币基金组织称中国为“新兴和发展中经济体”。

比较关键的点在于，一个发达国家不仅意味着发达的基础设施，而且意味着在社会的各个层面都能获得先进的商品和服务。这意味着各个行业乃至民众自身都必须“成熟”起来，这是没有捷径可以走的。

MicrowavedBurrito 微波的墨西哥卷饼

It certainly depends

If the leadership continues investing in technology, living conditions, develo countries, environment, etc….Sure, that can be a possible outcome

这肯定要视情况而定了

如果领导层继续在科技，生活条件，发展国力，环境等方面持续投资....当然有可能实现

Aozao Zhou

Let's start with a conclusion. I don't think so.

Although there is no uniform standard for developed countries, the baseline for developed countries in my mind should be a per capita GDP of $20,000 and an HDI of 0.85 or more.

China's current GDP per capita is about $12,000, and the HDI is 0.768, which is obviously a big gap with the developed countries. Considering that China's current annual growth can only be about 5%, it will be at least 10 years before it reaches 20,000 dollars.

让我们先说说结论。我不认同你的观点。

虽然发达国家并没有统一的标准，但在我看来，发达国家的基准应该是人均GDP达到2万美元，人类发展指数达到0.85以上。

中国目前的人均GDP约为1.2万美元，人类发展指数为0.768，与发达国家的差距明显较大。考虑到中国目前的年增长率只能在5%左右，达到2万美元至少需要10年的时间。

China once announced in the 1980s that it would reach the level of a medium-developed country by 2049, and according to China's current size and speed of development, it will reach the threshold of a developed country around 2035, and by 2049, it should indeed be able to reach the level of a medium-developed country such as Spain or Italy. From this point of view, China's forecast is very accurate.

中国曾在上世纪80年代宣布，将在2049年达到中等发达国家的水平，按照中国目前的规模和发展速度，可以在2035年前后达到发达国家的门槛，到2049年，中国应该能够达到西班牙、意大利等中等发达国家的水平。从这个角度来看，中国自己的判断还是非常准确的。

Gully Foyled

Define “developed country”.

The OECD is generally regarded as the club for developed countries.

The poorest members of the OECD such as Mexco have similar levels of GDP at PPP to China now.

So if you consider countries like Mexco developed then China is arguably already developed.

首先，我们要定义一下何为“发达国家”。

经济合作与发展组织被视为发达国家俱乐部。

经合组织中最贫穷的成员国，如墨西哥，目前的购买力平价GDP水平与中国相当。

所以如果你觉得墨西哥等国是发达国家，那么中国也可以视为发达国家。

If however you’re using “developed country” as meaning “similar per capita income to North American or western European countries” that’s more like $50,000 per capita and at 5% per annum growth that’s take around 15 years. Of course, the developed economies will also have grown so say 20 years.

This isn’t just an academic question. Under the WTO rules, develo countries get a bunch of concessions on stuff like tariffs. But there’s no formal definition of what constitutes a develo countries. Members self-identify as developed or develo countries. If China were to voluntarily give up its develo country status that would ease a bunch of trade tensions.

但如果你认为“发达国家”的标准是人均收入达到“北美或西欧国家的水平”，即人均5万美元，那么如果保持每年5%的增长速度，大约也需要15年。当然了，发达经济体也会继续增长。

这不仅仅是一个学术问题。根据世贸组织的规则，发展中国家在关税等方面享受了一系列优惠。但是发展中国家并没有正式的定义。世贸成员国究竟是发达国家还是发展中国家，都是自己说了算。如果中国自愿放弃发展中国家地位，就可以缓解一系列贸易紧张局势。

Philip Wong

The US GDP per capita is 6.41 times greater than that of China. The US GDP growth rate is 2.5%, while China's is 5%. It will take approxmately 77 years (calculated as ln(6.41)/ln(1.05/1.025)) before China's GDP per capita matches that of the US. As China may struggle to maintain its growth rate of 5%, it is anticipated that the actual time required may be longer.

美国的人均GDP是中国的6.41倍。美国的GDP增长率为2.5%，中国的GDP增长率为5%。中国的人均GDP大约需要77年(按ln(6.41)/ln(1.05/1.025)计算)才能赶上美国的人均GDP水平。但事实是中国可能很难保持5%的增长率，实际所需的时间可能会更长。

The US is considered a very well-developed country, yet it faces numerous challenges: economic inequality, inflation, stagnant real wages for the last forty years, costly healthcare, an expensive education system, student loan debt totaling $1.7 trillion with an average balance of $38,000, racial inequality, mass incarceration, the militarization of police, deteriorating infrastructure, housing affordability, homelessness, the opioid epidemic, and gun violence.

Let's hope that China does not face these problems as it becomes more "developed."

美国是一个非常发达的国家，但它也面临着许多挑战：经济不平等、通货膨胀、过去四十年停滞不前的工资、昂贵的医疗保健、昂贵的教育系统、总计1.7万亿美元的学生贷款(平均余额为3.8万美元)、种族歧视、监狱爆满、警察军事化、基础设施恶化、住房负担沉重、流浪汉、阿片类药物失控和枪支暴力等等。

我们希望中国在走向“发达国家”的过程中不会面临这些问题。

Yaozhou

It's basically impossible.

If we go by purchasing power parity, China's manufactured goods, clothes and shoes, and electronic products are the cheapest in the world;

You can buy clothes and shoes for a few dollars.

It is also possible to purchase a phone, computer or television for $100.

But even so, our milk powder and beef prices are still the most expensive in the world.

Most importantly, with such a large population, our per capita educational resources are very low, and the difficulty of the entrance exam for higher education is very high.

基本上是不可能的。

如果按购买力平价计算，中国的制成品、服装鞋、电子产品是全球最便宜的；

你花几美元就能买到衣服和鞋子。

花100美元就可以买到手机、电脑或电视。

但即便如此，中国的奶粉和牛肉价格仍然是全球最高的。

最重要的是，中国人口过于庞大，人均教育资源匮乏，高考难度极高。

Especially recently, with the launch of OpenAI's generative AI model Sora, Google's release of the world's strongest open source big model Gemma, Nvidia's stock price skyrocketed

Almost everyone blames the for its incompetence, and the general consensus is that the 's rigid policies have led to the backwardness of AI and software.

尤其是最近，随着OpenAI的生成式AI模型Sora的推出，谷歌发布全球最强开源大模型Gemma，英伟达股价应声暴涨

几乎所有人都在指责无能，大家的普遍共识是，僵化政策导致了人工智能和软件的落后。

Whether it's Microsoft or SAP, Autodesk, PTC Pro/ENGINEER, Siemens PLM Software, ANSYS, DCS, SCADA, Oracle, IBM Maxmo, it's still a dark cloud over China's technology sector.

Many of China's Internet giants have become giant babies.

无论是微软还是SAP、欧特克、PTC Pro/ENGINEER、西门子PLM软件、ANSYS、DCS、SCADA、甲骨文、IBM Maxmo，都是笼罩在中国科技行业上空的乌云。

许多中国互联网巨头已经成为长不大的巨婴。

E. Garcia

I think with the US shifting manufacturing bases away from China will have a profound impact on their growth. If they grow at 6%, by 2030, at best they will be a middle income country.

我认为，美国制造业撤出中国对中国的增长产生了极大的影响。如果中国维持6%的增长率，到2030年最多也只能算是中等收入国家。