Does it hold true that India must wait another seven decades to achieve a level of development similar to that of present-day China?

印度必须再过70年才能达到中国如今的发展水平，这个说法是真的吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Kancheepuram Narasimhan

Never never India will / can come near China in next 10000 years

就算把时间拉长到未来一万年，印度也绝无可能接近中国的发展水平。

1.  Filthy Indians have Congress/ BJP/SP/ BSP/ TMC/ SS/ NCP/ DMK/ ADMK/ CPI/ CPM/ JMM/ RJD etc etc. Filthy Indians like elect filthy corrupt to rule them!

2.Filthy Indian politicians are greedy- not greedy- avaricious. Politicians ( almost all) have amassed lacs of crore ( each one). Even petty Tehsildar / Income tax officer has amassed 1000s of crores! Corruption in China may be 1%, but in India it is 100% in state/ central Govt contracts.

1. 印度人有国大党、人民党、社会民*党、大众社会党、印度草根国民大会、湿婆军、民族大会党、达罗毗荼进步联盟、全印达罗毗荼进步联盟、印度、左翼政党、贾坎德解放阵线、全国人民党等等。印度人就喜欢投票给卑鄙无耻的腐败分子来统治自己！

2.卑鄙无耻的印度政客十分贪婪—哦，已经不是贪婪了—是贪得无厌。政客们(几乎所有政客)都积攒了大量财富。就连小小的征税官/所得税官员也能贪得几百亿卢比！中国的腐败率可能只有1%，但在印度，各邦/中央政府的承包工程中，腐败率可达100%。

3.Productivity: An employee in Western Europe/ USA/ Canada/ Japan / China works 8 hrs a day but an Indian in govt/ PSU just works 1 hr/ 2 hr in 8 hrs. Rest 6 hrs, he gossips/ plays card in office canteen. or does shop around.

4.Filthy indian wants to get his job done easily by bribing. He wants to get job by getting fraud SC certificate. Not only he but filthy leaders who still continue reservation in jobs are to be blamed.

5.CASTE: TN alone has 600 + castes. And enmity among the castes. in CHINA/ Japan- there is no caste. As long as caste is supported by rulers- India will never prosper

3. 生产力：西欧/美国/加拿大/日本/中国的员工每天工作8小时，而印度政府/ 国有企业的员工在每天的8小时工作时间里只会工作1小时/ 2小时。休息6小时，他在办公室食堂里闲聊/打牌，或者外出购物。

4. 印度人只想通过贿赂来走捷径。他只想通过获得伪造预定种姓证书来获得工作岗位。不仅是他本人，那些采纳预留制的卑鄙领导人们也都应该受到指责。

5. 种姓：仅泰米尔纳德邦就有600多个种姓。种姓之间的敌意从未消弭。在中国和日本，根本就没有种姓制度。只要种姓制度还得到统治者的支持，印度就永远不可能实现繁荣。

Arch Stanton

NO.

IF incredible! superpower! india! WERE to ever MIRACULOUSLY reach the development of present 2023 China: IT WILL BE SOOOOOOO FAR IN THE FUTURE THAT EVERYONE AND ANYONE ALIVE RIGHT NOW WILL BE LOOOOOONNNNNNNNGGGGGGGG DEAD AND GONE BY THEN.

不。

了不起的超级大国印度若能奇迹般地达到中国在2023年的发展水平：那肯定也是在非常非常非常遥远的未来了，没有人能活着见证那个时刻。

Dravidian Model

Seven decades is a little bit of an exaggeration.

The truth is India’s current economic situation is similar to China’s in 2007.

七十年是有点夸张了。

事实是，印度目前的经济状况与中国2007年的情况类似。

GDP

China’s GDP in 2007 - ₹3.55 lakh crores

India’s GDP in 2021 - ₹3.18 lakh crores

Also, in 2007

41% of China's labor force worked in agriculture

27% in industry

32% in services.

国内生产总值

中国2007年的GDP - 3.55万亿卢比

印度2021年的GDP - 3.18万亿卢比

此外，在2007年

中国有41%的劳动力从事农业活动

有27%的劳动力从事工业活动

有32%的劳动力从事服务业活动。

In comparison, for India in 2021,

44% in agriculture

25% in industry

31% in services.

对比2021年的印度，

有44%的人口从事农业活动

有25%的劳动力从事工业活动

有31%的劳动力从事服务业活动。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

Look

India has a lot of problems that it needs to handle

你得意识到

印度还有很多问题需要解决

First is Agriculture

China has 1.43 Billion people and only 9% of it's land is Arable. A Lot of the land has been industrialized and despite this Chinas net deficit of all foodgrains is only -10.93% in 2023

This means China consumes 1.11 times what it produces

India has 1.439 Billion people and a whop 54.2% of it's land is Arable. Yet Indias net surplus of all foodgrains is a mere +8.28% in 2023

This means India consumes 91.72% of what it produces today

首先是农业

中国有14.3亿人口，只有9%的土地是可耕地。许多土地已经工业化，单尽管如此，2023年中国所有粮食的净赤字仅为-10.93%

这意味着中国的粮食消耗量是粮食产量的1.11倍

印度有14.39亿人口，高达54.2%的土地都是可耕地。但2023年，印度所有粮食的净盈余仅为+8.28%

这意味着印度消耗了粮食产量的91.72%

If India decides to undertake a mere 15% of Chinas Industrial Expansion and convert 10% of it's Arable land to Industrial Land

With growing population, that would change India from a Food Surplus Country to a 21.39% Food Deficit Country

This means if we decided to expand our Industrial Output to 15% of Chinas, we would be producing only 78.61% of the total foodgrains we would be consuming

If we decide to touch 25% of Chinas Industrialization, we would be a 33.45% deficit state which means we would be producing only 66.55% of the Total Foodgrains we would be consuming

如果印度决定将工业规模扩大到中国的15%，将10%的耕地转化为工业用地

那么随着印度人口的增长，印度就会从一个粮食盈余国变成一个粮食缺口高达21.39%的国家。

这就是说，如果我们决定把工业生产规模扩大到中国的15%，我们的粮食产量只够满足粮食消耗总量的78.61%。

如果我们要把工业生产规模达到中国的25%，粮食缺口就会进一步升到33.45%，也就是说，我们的粮食产量只够满足粮食消耗总量的66.55%。

We laugh at China for it's apparent demographic collapse but in a way they have lesser mouths to feed and old people don't need as many calories

India has a growing population and young people average 2100 calories a day

We would be very badly at the mercy of Global Food Supply Chain

Are we doing anything about it?

Nopes

我们嘲笑中国的人口断崖式下降，但在某种程度上，中国需要养活的人口变少了，老年人不需要那么多卡路里摄入

而印度人口不断增长，年轻人平均每天需要摄入2100卡路里

我们会严重受制于全球食品供应链

印度对此采取了什么措施吗？

完全没有。

More Flats built, More Lakes drained, More Condos, More Residential Layouts

The day we Industrially produce a fourth of Chinas output, we would depend on imports for 33% of our total foodgrains

China at this same stage produced 1.27 times the food it consumed

More than DOUBLE of India

The West can make India dance bhangra for food imports

我们建造了更多的公寓，我们抽干了更多的湖泊，更多的房子，更多的住宅。

如果印度的工业产量达到中国的四分之一，印度就会有33%的粮食需要依赖进口

而届时中国的粮食产量将达到消耗总量的1.27倍

是印度的两倍还多

为了粮食进口，西方可以对印度发号施令，颐指气使。

Second is Water

China has 2916 Cubic Kilometers of Fresh Water and it's Utilization is a mere 52.3%

其次是水

中国有2916立方千米的淡水，目前的利用率仅为52.3%

This means China still has almost half the freshwater that it can utilize at a later date

Industrialization needs HUGE QUANTITIES OF WATER

It is estimated that it needs 4427 Litres of Water to manufacture a car

It is estimated that it needs 373.61 Liters of Water for a single stack of Chips

India has 1899 Cubic Kilometers of Freshwater, of which a whop 76.8% is it's utilization

This means India barely has 23.2% of it's freshwater left to Utilize

这意味着中国仍有近一半的淡水可供未来使用

工业化生产需要大量的水

据估算，制造一辆汽车需要4427升水

据估算，加工一堆薯片需要373.61升水

印度只有1899立方千米的淡水，利用率达到76.8%

这意味着印度只有23.2%的淡水可供未来使用

If India gets to 15% of Chinas Industrial Output , we would be water deficient by 7.24% and 25% would take us to nearly 14% deficiency

Thus at a fourth of Chinas level Industrially , we would be consuming 1.14 times more water than our rivers can give us today

In a mere 25 years, we would drain all our ground water reserves and face major water crises

Are we doing anything about it?

Nopes

如果印度的工业产量达到中国的15%，我们将面临7.24%的淡水资源缺口，如果达到中国的25%，淡水资源缺口更是会攀升到14%。

因此，如果我们的工业水平达到中国的四分之一，我们需要消耗的水量比今天印度河流所能提供的水量还多1.14倍。

在短短25年内，我们就将耗尽所有的地下水储备，并面临重大的水源危机。

我们对此采取了什么措施呢？

不，完全没有。

No Canal construction at record pace, No major Groundwater harvest, No Major Desalination operations, No major water pipelines from other surplus users

China stores 66.11% of it's rain water

India stores exactly 3.94% as in 2021

You know the first thing LKY did after Singapore gained independence?

He signed a water deal with Malaysia to buy their surplus water at 3 cents per 4500 Litres

India???

印度并没有全力推动运河建设，没有进行大规模的地下水开采，也没有大规模的海水淡化工程，更没有铺设连接其他水源富裕国家的供水管道。

中国储存了66.11%的雨水。

2021年印度只储存了3.94%。

你知道李光耀在新加坡独立后做的第一件事是什么吗？

他跟马来西亚签署了一项水资源协议，以每4500升3美分的价格购买马来西亚过剩的水资源。

印度呢？？

Next is Energy

When China began their Industrial growth, they had 61% of their Oil domestically

They produced 3.3 Million Barrels a day out of 5.5 Million Barrels

India?

We import 95.6% of our Oil today

Thus today our domestic reserves of Oil stand at around 8% of what China had when they began their Industrial growth.

接着再来说说能源

当中国开始发展工业时，消耗的石油有61%产自中国国内。

他们每天生产550万桶中的330万桶。

但印度呢？

我们现在进口的石油占到了消耗总量的95.6%。

我们国内的石油储备只有中国开始工业化时的8%左右。

Any Long term deals?

Nopes

We buy off the market

So imagine we are manufacturing for the whole world and suddenly Oil prices rise 30%?

We would be bankrupt or forced to rise costs by 45% overnight

End of any long term manufacturing contracts

我们签订了长期石油供应协议吗？

不

我们都是从市场购买石油。

所以想象一下，如果我们要为全世界制造商品，但油价突然上涨了30%会出现什么情况？

我们可能很快就破产了，或者不得不在一夜之间将成本提高45%。

那么长期制造订单就都得泡汤了。

So Food, Water and Energy

Not in a single area does India have sufficient numbers to sacrifice 20% land to Industries, 20% water to Industries and sufficient long term deals in Oil and Gas to ensure zero vagaries

Russia offered us 30 years of Safe Oil but our Insane Stupidity and Irrational Ego just because we have to settle in Yuan stopped us

所以食物，水和能源

印度没有哪个地区有足够的资源，可以为工业牺牲20%的土地和20%的水源，也没有签订石油和天然气的长期采购协议来避免价格的波动。

俄罗斯曾提出可以为我们提供30年的稳定的石油供应，但因为必须用人民币结算，我们疯狂的愚蠢的荒唐的自尊拒绝了俄罗斯的橄榄枝。

So as you can see

Stop Daydreaming and WORK !!!!!

Work on rapid improvement of Agriculture and not the looney tunes version of the farm laws

Work on rapid improvement of water conservation and availability

Work on technology, harvesters, combines, land aggregation

Work on signing 20/30/40 year deals on Oil and Gas even if you have to pay in Yuan

The Middle East is booked and committed to China & Europe

Only Canada can give us oil and Modi has to go hat in hand to a grng Trudeau for that

So sign a deal in Yuan for gods sake

Without this, India thinking even of Industrial Manufacturing on a sixth of Chinas scale would break us completely

如你所见

别再做白日梦了，踏踏实实做点实事吧！！！

努力实现农业的快速发展，别再对农业法律删删改改了

努力快速改善水资源的保护和供给吧

努力在科技、收割机、联合收割机、土地整合方面有所作为吧

努力签订20/30/40年的石油和天然气协议，就算必须用人民币结算也接受吧

中东的石油产量已经被中国和欧洲预订光了

现在只有加拿大能为我们供应石油，莫迪只能谄笑地讨好特鲁多

看在上帝的份上，赶紧用人民币签订合同吧

如果这一点得不到保证，印度想把制造业规模提高到中国的六分之一，也只能是空想。

Subhash Mathur

If we continue at this pace then yes from 3.5 to 18 trillion . But if India steps up with swee reforms and adjustments then perhaps 3 decades.

Our industrial base is too small . We produce simple goods and most of them are shoddy and not fit for export market .

Indian agricultural too unproductive with too many people being occupied with insufficient work and productivity.

And India lacks Indian funds for investments on a large scale

These are the top three issues blocking rapid progress.

如果我们继续保持这个速度，那么是的，我们需要70年才能从3.5万亿发展到18万亿。但如果印度加快全面改革，那么可能就只需要30年了。

我们的工业基础太小了。我们只能生产简单的商品，其中大部分还都是劣质商品，不适合出口其他国家。

印度的农业生产力太低，太多的人口的工作和生产力不够饱和。

而且印度缺乏大规模投资所需的资金。

以上就是阻碍印度经济快速发展的三大难题。