What will happen now to Putin and his regime after the shooting in the Moscow concert hall?

莫斯科音乐厅枪击案发生后，普京和俄罗斯政府会采取什么行动？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Thomas Brown

Nobody knows.

But there will be a not insignificant minority of Russians who realize that Putin has made Russia so weak that 3rd-rate barbarians like ISIS pose a threat in Moscow. ISIS has history in Russia, has been attacking for years but this is big and demonstrates an appalling lack of security in Russia. Many Russians will line up for service after this, just as many Muscovites lined the streets the morning after for a chance to donate blood for the survivors.

没有人能知道他们会做些什么。

但不少俄罗斯人会意识到，普京执掌的俄罗斯竟然已经如此软弱，连这种不入流的野蛮人都对莫斯科构成了威胁。他们的活动在俄罗斯已经有些历史了，多年来一直在发动袭击，但这次的袭击规模之大，证明俄罗斯严重缺乏安全保障。许多俄罗斯人会在这起事件后踊跃报名参军，就像许多莫斯科人在事件发生后的次日清晨就在街头排期长队，希望能为伤员献血一样。

Many Russians will listen to Putin’s garbage about Ukraine and the West being responsible for this; they will deny the evidence of their eyes and ears and bloodied neighbors, the Dear Leader has spoken. No small number of them will join the services as well, to kill Ukrainians—not ISIS. For some reason, they will be supported in their delusions by a disturbingly large minority of Western morons who just refuse to accept ISIS’ declaration of responsibility for the attack, and their promise to carry out more.

许多俄罗斯人会收听普京发表的垃圾声明，把这起事件归咎于乌克兰和西方国家。他们不会接受自己亲眼见证、亲耳听闻和邻居受伤流血的事实。他们中有很多人会选择参军，目标直指乌克兰人。出于某种原因，他们的妄想会得到西方白痴们的支持，这些人拒绝接受YSL国对此次袭击负责的声明，也拒绝接受他们实施更多袭击的宣言。

Similar to Hamas, so weird. Fucking mass-murdering lunatics film themselves performing heinous atrocities, post it online and explicitly take credit, promise to conduct more such attacks, and these useful idiots will still deny it. They don’t care about the victims, they don’t care about the murderers, they just want to feel self-righteous and blame America, the West, capitalism, whatever. Facts be damned.

这简直就和哈马斯一样，非常古怪。这帮该死的大屠杀疯子拍下了自己犯下的滔天罪行，发布到网上，直截了当地承认自己的行为，并宣告还会进行更多类似袭击，但这些白痴依然不相信。他们不关心受害者，也不关心凶手，他们自以为是地指责美国、西方、zb主义等等。至于事实真相如何，统统见鬼去吧。

So what will happen to Putin? He’s already scared, he will be more so now. Muscovites in particular, but Russians in general, will share a bit of that fear. Mistakes will be more likely politically, and socially Russia will grow even more tense and unpredictable. Putin is rapidly running out of options, he’s feeling the squeeze of a stalemated war in the west and growing internal unrest on multiple fronts, plus a shit economy that stalled out years ago and the sanctions/war have only made worse. But there is still no challenger, no successor, no mass movement to replace him, and no real secessionist threats from the provinces yet. It’s more than likely that Putin will be fine for a while longer yet.

普京会怎么做呢？普京本就害怕，现在只会更加害怕。莫斯科人尤为害怕，但总体而言，俄罗斯人都会有一点担忧。政治上犯错的可能性会更大，俄罗斯社会将变得更加紧张、变化莫测。普京正在迅速失去选择的空间，他感受到了西方陷入战争僵局的压力，以及多条战线上日益加剧的内部动荡，再加上多年来停滞不前的糟糕经济，制裁/战争只会让局势越来越糟糕。但是现在俄罗斯国内没有反对者，没有继任者，没有群众运动来推番普京的地位，也没有真正的分裂主义的威胁。普京近期内也许还能继续维持统治。

Steven

Putin will be happy. Very happy.

As a it is essential he has a terrifying enemy he can fight to defend his people from. That way they will never depose him.

He already has created adversaries in Ukraine and NATO but they are unconvincing as dangerous enemies. Many Russians see through his lies there.

But ISIS are an excellent enemy. They are cruel and barbaric. They kill kids. They are sneaky and run away when confronted. They are very dangerous.

This gives Putin another solid reason to demand the public love and support.

普京会高兴的。非常非常高兴。

他必须要有一个可怕的对手，才可以发动战争来保护他的子民。这样俄罗斯民众就永远不会废黜他了。

他已经把乌克兰和北约竖立成了敌对方，但他们并不是危险的敌人。许多俄罗斯人都看穿了他的谎言。

但YSL国是一个优秀的对手。他们既残忍又野蛮。他们甚至连孩子都不放过。他们行动鬼祟，一旦交战就立刻逃跑。他们真的非常危险。

这就又给了普京一个要求公众爱戴和支持他的坚实理由。

Bill Chen

The Russians are a stoic people. There was a live stream of the theater surroundings in the aftermath of the attack. It showed emergency personnel going about their business, without panic or chaos, despite the massive casualty, and the surreal nature of the event.

I repeat. There was no panic, no fear, just calm professionalism to put out the fire, render first aid, establish perimeter security, and of course, sweep the building and make arrests.

俄罗斯人是一个坚忍的民族。袭击发生后，现场直播了剧院周围的情况。视频显示，虽然袭击造成了大量伤亡，紧急救援人员没有出现恐慌或混乱，继续镇定工作。

我再说一遍。现场的人员没有恐慌，没有害怕，他们用镇定冷静的专业精神来扑灭大火，提供急救，维持安保工作，当然，还搜查大楼，进行逮捕。

Burning the roof sends a clear message that this was a made-for-tv special to embarrass the Kremlin. The Italians call it falò delle vanità, or the bonfires of vanities, except this time, the sin is indeed one of vanity.

“Look what I did, mama.”

焚烧屋顶发出了一个明确的信息，这是一个为了电视报道而特别安排的节目，目的就是让克里姆林宫难堪。意大利人称之为falò delle vanità，或《虚荣的篝火》，但这一次，这起罪恶行径归根到底就是虚荣心作祟。

“看我都做了什么，妈妈。”

If this was the work of religious fanatics, they would have tried to maxmize the taking of life, rather that stage instagram-worthy capture. But they evidently had world-class training in small unit action, and had intimate knowledge of the target and its surroundings. Deep pockets and networks.

The Russians have significant state security resources. They will get to the bottom of this and hold those responsible accountable.

There will be hell to pay.

如果这是宗教狂热分子的手笔，他们会竭尽全力地夺走更多人的生命。但他们显然在小型部队行动方面受过世界一流水平的训练，对目标及周围环境了如指掌。而且拥有雄厚的财力和人脉。

俄罗斯人拥有大量的国家安全资源。他们将彻查此事，并追究相关责任人的责任。

罪犯们将会付出惨痛的代价。

Alexey Zetovich

I would rather reformulate the question:

What will happen to zelensky and his nazi regime in the so-called “ukraine”?

Because, based on the preliminary testimony of the detained terrorists, they received half the amount of their fee and went to ukraine for the remaining half.

我想重新整理一下这个问题的问法：

泽连斯基和他所谓的“乌克兰”纳粹政权会怎么做？

因为，根据被拘留的恐怖分子的初步证词，他们已经收了一半费用，要去乌克兰收剩下一半的费用。

Mitch Mitchel

Nuttin Honey. The conspiricy theory’s abound and everybody’s got one, especially in the kremlin. They’ll find the terrorists responsible, make no mistake whether they were or they weren’t, they’ll find them and make them responsible and things will quiet down for a minute and another big bang will happen.

亲爱的，什么都不会发生。现在阴谋论四处蔓延，每个人都有自己的猜测，尤其是克林姆林宫。他们会把责任推导恐怖分子身上，不管是不是恐怖分子干的，他们都会让恐怖分子负责，局势会暂时安静一小段时间，然后再次发生爆炸袭击。

Shun Bot

Almost 24 hours have passed, and still the Russian authorities have yet to formally name a culprit.

The shooters who have been captured (about 3 of them so far I believe) all hail from Central Asian, not the Middle East and not Ukraine. They do not appear to have any connection to ISIS as that organization has very little presence in Central Asian countries like Tajikistan.

Russian authorities are making the claim that the shooters fled towards the Ukraine border, but what that means exactly is hard to say, and the Russians have stopped short of accusing Ukraine outright.

24小时就要过去了，俄罗斯当局仍然没有正式公布罪犯的名字。

被抓获的凶手(我相信到目前为止可能有3名凶手)都来自中亚，而非中东和乌克兰。他们似乎与YSL国没有任何联系，因为该组织在塔吉克斯坦等中亚国家几乎并不存在。

俄罗斯当局声称，凶手逃往乌克兰边境，但这到底意味着什么还很难说，俄罗斯人还没有直接将矛头指向乌克兰。

So those are the facts so far. Now let’s do some speculation.

I think it is fair to say at this point that this was not some simple jihadi attack. Jihadis fight to the death whenever they do one of these mass shootings. These men all fled the scene, or at least tried to. They also weren’t found with any of the usual paraphernalia of jihadis . The one ISIS flag discovered so far was poorly drawn on piece of cardboard.

What is clear is that the US and UK want Russia to believe this is an ISIS attack. They keep insisting on it non-stop and this is how the attack is being reported in every single Western media outlet.

以上就是目前的事实。现在我们来推测一下。

我认为目前可以判断，这不是什么简单的圣战袭击。圣战分子但凡发动大规模枪击事件，肯定要战斗到死。但这些凶手都逃离了现场，或者至少试图逃离现场。俄罗斯也没有发现任何圣战分子的日常用品。迄今为止发现的一面YSL国的旗帜只是潦草地画在纸板上的。

很明显，美国和英国都希望俄罗斯相信这是YSL国发动的袭击。他们坚持这个说法，每家西方媒体都在报道这起袭击事件。

If I had to guess, I’d say that this was a CIA operation where Central Asian mercenaries were disguised as jihadis to commit this massacre, then a supposedly ISIS generic internet source would take responsibility. The CIA’s aim here seems to be to divert Russian attention away from Ukraine and back towards Central Asia.

This strategy will backfire catastrophically.

如果一定要我猜的话，我会说这是美国中情局的手笔，中亚雇佣兵伪装成圣战分子来实施大屠杀，然后用一条所谓的YSL国的互联网消息宣布对此事件负责。美国中情局的目标似乎是要把俄罗斯的注意力从乌克兰转移回中亚。

这种策略将会产生灾难性的后果。

SInce the start of this war, Russian media has framed this war as a “brother war”, an unfortunate but necessary fratricide to rid Ukraine of Western influence. The Russian people, even two years into the war and with hundreds of thousands of casualties, still do not harbor bad blood against the Ukrainians as a people. At worst they loathe the Kiev regime as traitors to eastern Slavdom.

If Russian media does go ahead and place the blame for this attack on the heads of Ukraine and the CIA, then the “brother war” narrative will evolve into something far darker. Putin has already declared the Kiev regime to be controlled by Neo-Nazis, so this would expand that characterization to the rest of Ukraine. The average Russian soldier’s view of his Ukrainian counterpart will also shift quite dramatically.

自乌克兰战争爆发以来，俄罗斯媒体将这场战争描述为”兄弟间的战争”，这是一场虽然不幸但不可避免的自相残杀，目的是帮助乌克兰摆脱西方国家的影响。俄罗斯人民即便在战争持续了两年事件、伤亡数十万人的情况下，也还是没有对乌克兰人怀有敌意。他们只是憎恨基辅政权，认为它是东方斯拉夫民族的叛徒。

如果俄罗斯媒体真的把这次袭击的责任推给乌克兰和美国中情局，那么”兄弟战争”的局势会继续恶化。普京已经宣布基辅政权落入了新纳粹控制，会殃及乌克兰其他地区。俄罗斯普通士兵对乌克兰士兵的看法也将发生巨大转变。

On Mar 22, 2024, Dimitry Peskov announced the Russia was officially at war. This is not merely a rhetorical device. It opens the way for a formal declaration of war against Ukraine, such a declaration would have enormous ramifications, and give Putin far reaching powers of mobilization, industrial nationalization, and troop deployment (Russian conscripts would then be legally allowed to enter the war on Ukrainian soil).

2024年3月22日，德米特里·佩斯科夫宣布俄罗斯正式进入战备状态。这不仅仅是口头表态，也为正式对乌克兰宣战铺平了道路，这样的宣战将产生巨大的影响，赋予普京进行全国动员、工业国有化和部署军队的权力(随后俄罗斯应征士兵就会得到允许，在乌克兰领土上参加战争)。

Larry Nutter

It is entirely likely the Islamic State attacked the concert hall because of Russian imperialism in a Muslim country. No matter what, terrorism is 100% wrong. America contacted Russia prior to the attack and warned them of the pending attack. Apparently our intelligence network knew there was going to be an attack on a large event. We told Russia to not have big events.

很有可能是YSL国袭击了音乐厅，因为俄罗斯在一个国家实施了扩张主义。无论如何，恐怖主义绝对是无法接受的行为。美国在袭击前与俄罗斯取得了联系，并警告俄罗斯应对即将发生的袭击。显然，我们的情报网络知道一场针对大型活动的袭击即将发生。我们告诉俄罗斯预防重大事件的发生。

The only effect of a mass terrorism event is the people will be to gather around their government and become more patriotic and supportive. Look back to 9/11 and you will see what will happen to Putin and his regime. America supported our country 100%. There were American flags hanging in everyone’s front yards. The same will be true with the Moscow terrorism event. The same will be true for Putin. There will just be calls for revenge by the Russian government against the Islamic State.

大规模恐怖主义事件的唯一影响是人民会更紧密地凝聚在政府周围，变得更加爱国，更加支持自己的祖国。回顾911事件，你就会知道普京和他的国家会怎么样了。当时美国人100%支持我们的祖国。每个人都在前院悬挂美国国旗。莫斯科恐怖主义事件也会如此。普京也一样会得到民众的支持。俄罗斯政府会对YSL国进行打击报复。