Do Indians possess the intellectual autonomy to independently realize that India will not become a developed economy by 2047, or do they rely on validation from figures like Raghuram Rajan to understand this outcome?

印度人能否理智地意识到2047年印度依然无法成为发达经济体？他们是不是会参考拉古拉姆·拉詹等人物的意见？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Anish Bose

Apart from the elegant discipline of Economic Sciences I am an ardent fan of the English language, I would like to appreciate the person who asked this question by using such non-colloquial terms, they just made one minor error “to understand this outcome” and “independently realise” is incorrect English wrt. the question. Btw if you guys click on the details tab of the question you can find out easily who asked the question, it was asked by a fake account named Rohan Mehta, how is it fake? It's e recent account, it's extremely focused on propalestine agenda via a space and Iranian ideologies.

除了严谨的经济学学科之外，我还是英语语言的狂热爱好者，我想感谢使用晦涩术语提问这个问题的人，但他们有些个小错误，比如”理解这个结果”，”独立意识”，这不是正确的英语表达。顺便说一下，如果你们点击这个问题的标签，你可以马上找到提问者是谁，这个问题是由一个名为Rohan Mehta的虚假账户问的，为什么说它虚假？这是个刚刚注册不久的账号，只关注亲巴勒斯坦的议题和伊朗的意识形态。

Now coming to the answer of the question, a lot can change in 24 years. Russia may expand China may steal more land Pakistan might be doing better and become secular like Turkey was under Attaturk, many Historically Powerful European countries may or may not collapse, it's highly unpredictable. Just like how advanced Pakistan was in 1960s and how backward China was (but they had strong millitary).

现在来说说这个问题的答案，在24年的时间里，很多事情都会发生变化。俄罗斯可能会扩张，中国可能会窃取更多领土，巴基斯坦可能会发展得更好，变成像阿塔图尔克统治下的土耳其一样世俗化，许多历史上强大的欧洲国家可能会崩溃，也可能不会崩溃，这些都是无法预测的。就像60年代时，巴基斯坦还很先进，中国还很落后一样(但他们拥有强大的军队)。

Now about Dr. Rajan, he's not a classical Economist, he's basically an Engineer and marketer at his base although he eventually earned a PhD from MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA, Earth, Milky Way. Now his Econ degree was mostly mathematically oriented and it's impossible to predict outcomes of social sciences. His biggest achievement was predicting the 2008 Economic Crisis which originated in the USA as a result he was the head of various international economic organisations which he apply deserved but come on guys he's got a degree from a PhD MIT and IIT Delhi IIM Ahemdabad and he deserves it. Plus Rajan is not the only Economist to get degrees from the IITs, IIMs and went on to Harvard and MIT, not only that they also went on to head many international economic organisations and also won Nobles without any accurate predictions about the World Economy.

关于拉詹博士，他不是一个典型的经济学家，他基本上可以算是一个工程师和商人，虽然他在银河系行星之一的地球上的美国马萨诸塞州剑桥市麻省理工学院获得了博士学位。

现在，他的经济学学位主要是进行数学方向的研究，不可能预测社会科学的结果。

他最大的成就就是预测了2008年率先爆发于美国的经济危机，结果他成为了多个国际经济组织的负责人，这是他应得的，

但拜托，他获得了麻省理工学院和印度理工学院，印度管理学院的博士学位，这是他应得的。

此外，拉詹不是唯一一个从印度理工学院、印度管理学院获得学位，并继续去哈佛大学和麻省理工学院深造的经济学家，这些经济学家们领导了许多国际经济组织，

还在没有对世界经济做出任何准确预测的情况下获得了诺贝尔奖。

Plus I don't think India can be affected by 1% by a 1000 people like Dr. Rajan, when the British people stole Hindu money for 200 yrs their most imminent intellectuals criticised India and wanted us to fail, look at us now. We are still standing and London a Christian City can't even celebrate Easter because of ramadaaaan.

此外，我还认为印度不会被像拉詹博士那样极少数的人所影响。英国人在印度大肆奴役搜刮的200年间，他们的知识分子批评印度，希望我们一蹶不振，但现在好好看看我们吧。我们仍然昂首挺立，反倒是伦敦这座基督教城市竟然会因为斋月而无法庆祝复活节。

Subramaniam Duraisamy

That same Raghuram Rajan who said India should focus on services and not manufacturing?. That same Raghuram Rajan also said India cannot imitate China on manufacturing: World cannot afford India to follow China's manufacturing model, says Raghuram Rajan.

拉古拉姆·拉詹说，印度应该重点发展服务业，而不是制造业。拉古拉姆·拉詹还说，印度无法在制造业上效仿中国：这个世界无法承受印度效仿中国的制造业模式。

But Our KB Sir says India should focus on manufacturing

So yes- RRR has more credentials than anyone on this, so I believe India should not follow China's model.

但我们的KB先生说，印度应该专注于制造业

所以是的，拉古拉姆·拉詹在这方面比任何人都更有资格，所以我认为印度不应该效仿中国的模式。

Let's look at the facts and also some history

India is nearly $4 trillion in nominal GDP today and slated to overtake Germany and Japan by 2028. It would happen.

The global economy is slowing down and with Trump expected to return we can see America and the west getting more protectionist and isolationist.

UK and Europe is still reeling under inflation Inflation remains sticky in Europe, with core prices cooling less than expected

Japan is already ageing and companies are looking to diversify from China.

Under the circumstances - which nation can offer a competitive environment for businesses and has a large workforce to absorb the money?. Yep our Vishwaguru Bharat only.

让我们看看事实和历史

今天印度的名义GDP接近4万亿美元，预计2028年就能超过德国和日本。这是一定会实现的。

全球经济正在放缓，特朗普有望重返白宫，美国和西方可能会越来越倾向于保护主义和孤立主义。

英国和欧洲仍在通胀之下挣扎，欧洲的通胀仍然十分棘手，商品价格的回落幅度低于预期

日本已经全面老龄化，中国的企业希望扩大经营范围。

在这种情况下，哪个国家可以为企业提供富有竞争力的环境，并有大量的劳动力来吸收资金？是的，只有我们印度了。

Raghuram Rajan says India need to invest in education and skilling workforce than investing in chip design. And what does Rajan propose to do for investments once we have the skilled workforce ready?. Does Rajan have secret reserves of cash or assets he can invest here?

Indian engineers were not skilled in 1995 when we allowed IBM inside. Today we have the 3rd largest startup ecosystem.

拉古拉姆·拉詹表示，印度需要投资教育、培养劳动力，而非投资芯片设计。如果印度具备了熟练的劳动力，拉詹有没有针对投资方面给出建议？难道拉詹有神秘现金或资产可以在印度投资吗？

1995年，印度批准IBM进入印度市场时，印度工程师也并不熟练。现如今，我们已经拥有全球第三大创业生态系统。

Rajan is correct that India cannot emulate the China model. Because in 1990s there was a wave of globalisation. Today there is a wave of protectionism. Moreover the west would not want India to become too powerful like another China. They will not make that mistake again.

However we need to have investments in chip design and semiconductors too which is the future. A skilled workforce gets ready only through experience and money.

拉詹说得对，印度无法效仿中国模式。因为20世纪90年代掀起了一股全球化浪潮。而如今又出现了一波保护主义浪潮。此外，西方也不希望印度像中国一样强大。他们不会再犯那样的错误了。

但是我们还是需要对芯片设计和半导体进行投资，这就是未来的大势所趋。只有经验和资金才能造就熟练的劳动力。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

Look

The term DEVELOPED ECONOMY or DEVELOG ECONOMY are both coined by Western agencies and they have very murky qualifications

So if India sucks up to the USA and becomes a slavish lackey to the US and it's friends, then it's very possible that the IMF may declare India as a developed economy as early as 2035 despite it being a Gutter economy

看

发达经济体和发展中经济体这两个词都是西方创造的，定义非常模糊

所以，如果印度巴结美国，甘当美国及其盟友的走狗，那么国际货币基金组织很可能会在2035年宣布印度为发达经济体，尽管事实上它还是一个糟糕的经济体

Likewise if India stands up to the West, practices dignified self respecting foreign policy and supports a Multipolar world then it's very possible that even if India astounds everybody with some fantastic development, it could still be declared a third world economy on verge of collapse

同样，如果印度与西方对抗，推行自尊自重的外交政策，支持多极化世界，那么即便印度取得了令人震惊的成就，仍然有可能被西方判定为濒临崩溃的第三世界经济体

Raghuram Rajan says India is a house of cards

That's his summary in a nutshell

That Indias growth is an illusion

The talk of 2047 is merely conjecture at this stage

拉古拉姆·拉詹说，印度是一个纸牌屋

这就是他的个人总结

印度的增长是一种幻觉

在目前这个阶段讨论2047年，只是纯属猜测

Do Indians possess the Intellectual Autonomy to realize India is a falling house of cards?

A Basic 101 in economics will tell you the following :-

Our Nation has a 26% National Illiteracy. This means almost 36.4 Crore people who CANNOT EVEN READ AND WRITE. That's nearly the entire US Population.

Our Nation has a Fiscal Deficit of 6% with an Economy Size of $ 3.8 Trillion. This means this year we are short of almost $ 212 Billion between our Revenue and Expenditure and need to borrow this sum.

45% of our Revenue goes in paying Burden on Interest.

We have 9% Women in our Skilled Workforce

印度人是否意识到印度是一个摇摇欲坠的纸牌屋？

基本的经济学基础会告诉你以下几个事实：

印度的文盲率达26%，这意味着有近3.64亿印度人是目不识丁的文盲。这几乎已经等同于美国的全部人口了。

印度的财政赤字达6%，经济规模为3.8万亿美元。这意味着今年我们的收支缺口达到将近2120亿美元，需要通过借款补缺。

印度45%的收入用于支付借款利息。

印度的熟练劳动力中，女性只占到9%。

Thus the key priorities for India need to be :-

More Affordable Education

More Social Spending

More Investments in Manufacturing and not Assembly and Packaging

More prevention of Brain Drain

Not opening IIMs in Sambalpur or Gurdaspur

因此，印度的首要任务应该是：

提供合理学费的教育服务

加大对社会福利的支出

加大对制造业的投资，不要只满足于组装和包装

加强人才流失的预防措施

别在萨姆巴尔普尔或古达斯珀开设印度管理学院

Modi believes you need a Dumbledore wand and you can miraculously create an economy

Or spending all that borrowed money on Infrastructure

That's typical A 5th Standard Pass Brain thinking of instant solutions

It's like

If (a+b) ² = a²+b²+2ab

Then (a+b) ³ must be a³+b³+3ab

Rather than analyzing how the equation is derived, blindly change 2 into 3 and vomit out a false answer

Thats the Indian style, Modi ISHSTYLE of doing things

莫迪认为，挥舞邓布利多的魔杖就可以奇迹般地创造经济

或者把所有借来的钱都花在基础设施上

这是典型的5年级考试及格水平的人能一拍脑袋想出来的解决方案

这就好比

如果(a+b)²= a²+b²+2ab

那么(a+b)³一定是a³+b³+3ab

与其具体解析方程是如何推导出来的，不如直接把2改成3，抛出一个错误的答案

这就是印度的风格，莫迪的做事风格

Rajan believes the Fundamentals must change

That India must change the diseased layers like the Poor education system, the High cost of tuition for the average Indian , the Inequality, the Reservations and the Corruption

Plus imbibe a work culture that helps us rather than keeps us poor

Only then can India Really Grow

拉詹认为，必须改变印度的基本面

印度必须改变沉疴积重的社会问题，比如糟糕的教育体系、超出民众承受能力的高昂学费、社会不平等、预留制和腐败等。

此外，要引入一种有助于印度发展、不让我们继续贫困的工作文化

只有这样，印度才能得到真正的发展

The Average Indian is like Modi

They like INSTANT RESULTS

How to do something in 2 days

How to become a billionaire in 2 years?

They would of course worship Modis grandiose dreams

Rajan would be irritating to them because they hate and despite patience and hard work

普通印度人就像莫迪一样

他们喜欢即可生效的魔法效果

如何在两天内完成一件事？

如何在两年内成为亿万富翁？

所以他们自然会崇拜莫迪的宏伟梦想

而拉詹只会让他们愤怒，因为他们讨厌和鄙视耐心和努力的工作

We are a country where our countrymen with a majority of 3000:1 spent 8 hours a day with a rope tied to our legs and moving them all day so that THE BRITISHERS COULD BE COOL

Yet we slave and kowtow in the same way and have an orgasm when a Indian Origin guy who is obviously British born and raised becomes the British Prime Minister

我们是这样一个国家，我们有很多很多同胞会把绳子绑在腿上，每天8小时不停地摇动绳子，给英国人摇扇子送凉爽。

而当一个显然是在英国出生并长大的印度裔成为英国首相时，我们又以同样的方式卑躬屈膝，极度兴奋。

So 90% of Indians and Intellectual Autonomy are both mutually exclusive

It needs brains to think and reflect

It needs no brains to yell Allahu Akbar or Jai Shri Ram blindly. That's the same as a Cockatoo capable of generating sounds.

所以90%的印度人和理智是完全不搭边的

理智需要大脑来思考和反思

但振臂高呼“罗摩万岁”是不需要脑子的。这和鹦鹉能够发出声音是一样的。

PMGowindan Nampoothiri

If India can become 5 th largest economy in 10 years, it is common sense that India can be a developed economy in another 20years. No Reghuram Rajan is needed. Shri RR may have his own politics rather than Economics

如果印度能在10年内成为第5大经济体，那么再过20年，印度就能成为发达经济体，这是常识。不需要瑞古拉姆·拉詹。Shri RR可能有他自己的政治而不是经济

Siva Kumar Bachoti

Indians excel in innovative original thinking. You just have to look at so many Indians heading prestigious global entities. What is missing? Political sagacity/wisdom to give a direction to the country. All parties play games with India.

印度人擅长创造性思维。看看全球知名企业中有多少印度人就知道了。我们缺少什么？我们缺少为国家发展指明方向的政治智慧。