朝鲜和韩国有可能像东德和西德那样再次统一吗

Can North Korea and South Korea ever be reunited again just like East and West Germany?

朝鲜和韩国有可能像东德和西德那样再次统一吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Anthony M Anderson

Yes they could but it's likely it wouldn't happen in this timeline.

It could be different from the german reunification and there are reasons why it's likely reunification wouldn't happen this time around:

Both koreas are in a state of war since 1950 and have been pitting against each other ever since. Both koreas claim to be the legitimate representative of the korean peninsula as south korea claims north korea while north korea claims south korea which makes this challenging for reunification.

是的，他们是有可能统一的，但也许并不会在短期内实现。

朝鲜半岛的统一和东、西德的统一可能有所不同，这也是目前无法实现统一的原因：

自1950年以来，朝韩两国一直处于战争状态，一直相互较劲。朝韩双方都声称自己是朝鲜半岛的合法代表，韩国声称朝鲜属于韩国，而朝鲜声称韩国属于朝鲜，这对朝鲜半岛的统一来说是一个挑战。

China would do by all means to prevent it from happening as they will see an influence of refugees from the north and they don't want the european based migration crisis which in turn could cause many problems that the country is already facing. China does want the korean reunification to occur as long as there is no US military base within it's border which in turn china views as threat to it's natural security. If US bases remain in the korean peninsula during reunification then it's likely china will strongly oppose that.

The reunification could be a burden to south korea as north korea is an hermit kingdom which is fully an isolated impoverished land. South korea is one of the asian tigers which is moving fastforward and is a developed country while north korea on the otherhand is an impoverished wasteland and is lagging behind from the rest of the world which in turn could be much of the burden for the south to handle.

中国会尽一切努力来调停朝韩双方的战争，因为一旦发生战争，中国就会受到难民从北面涌入中国边境的影响，他们不想经历欧洲的移民危机，移民危机可能会给中国带来很多问题。中国确实希望朝鲜半岛实现统一，这样朝鲜半岛就不会有美国军事基地了，中国把美国的军事基地视为对其国家安全的威胁。如果美国在朝鲜半岛统一进程中继续在当地保留军事基地，那么中国很可能会提出强烈抗议。

朝鲜半岛的统一对韩国来说可能会是一种负担，因为朝鲜是一个与世隔绝的贫穷国家。韩国是亚洲四小龙之一，经济快速发展，是一个发达国家，但朝鲜依然十分贫困，落后于世界其他地区，可能会成为韩国要处理的负担。

North Korean leadership is the culprit that plays a role in preventing reunification as they don't want to have the part of the korean peninsula to be denuclearised and by all means claims that the only solution to the korean reunification is through war which could be devastating for south korea thus the US and the rest of it's allies in the region including japan and south korea itself. wouldn't want that to happen at all costs.

朝鲜领导人是阻止统一的罪魁祸首，因为他们不想让朝鲜半岛的部分地区无核化，他们不惜一切代价声称朝鲜半岛统一的唯一解决方案就是战争，这可能会对韩国造成毁灭性的打击，因此美国及其在该地区的其他盟友，包括日本和韩国本身都不希望发生这种事。

ADTV NEWS

The reunification of North Korea and South Korea is a complex issue that has been a topic of discussion for decades. While the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990 has often been cited as a model for a possible reunification of North and South Korea, the two situations are fundamentally different.

朝鲜和韩国的统一是一个复杂的问题，几十年来一直都是人们热议的话题。虽然人们常常用1990年东德和西德的统一来呼吁朝鲜和韩国尽快统一，但两者之间存在着本质的不同。

Firstly, the division of Germany was largely the result of external forces, specifically the post-World War II division of Europe into spheres of influence by the Allied powers. In contrast, the division of Korea was largely the result of internal political tensions, exacerbated by external forces such as the Cold War and the involvement of neighboring countries.

首先，德国的分裂主要是外部势力作用的结果，尤其是第二次世界大战后，同盟国将欧洲划分为若干个势力范围。但与之相反，朝鲜半岛的分裂主要是内部政治局势紧张的结果，冷战和邻国的介入等外部因素又进一步加剧了政治局势的紧张。

Secondly, the political, economic, and social differences between North and South Korea are far more pronounced than those between East and West Germany. North Korea is a highly centralized, auth rian state with a command economy, while South Korea is a de ocratic, capitalist country with a thriving economy. The two countries have vastly different cultures, languages, and social norms, which would make the reunification process more challenging.

其次，朝鲜和韩国之间在政治、经济和社会方面的差异比东德和西德之间的差异要明显得多。朝鲜是一个高度的独才国家，实行计划经济，而韩国是一个皿煮的资本主义国家，经济发达，给统一带来了更大的挑战。

Despite these challenges, there have been some efforts to promote reunification in recent years. In 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in held a historic summit. They signed a joint statement committing to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and pursuing a peace treaty to end the Korean War formally. However, progress since then has been slow, and there are many obstacles to overcome before reunification can become a reality.

One possible path to reunification is through a gradual process of economic and cultural integration, similar to what has occurred between China and Hong Kong or Taiwan. This would require cooperation and dialogue between the two countries, as well as support from the international community.

虽然存在着不少挑战，但近年来双方仍为促进统一作出了一些努力。2018年，朝鲜领导人金正恩和韩国总统文在寅举行了历史性峰会。他们签署了一份联合声明，承诺实现朝鲜半岛无核化，双方同意努力达成和平条约，正式结束朝鲜战争。但此后和平进展一直十分缓慢，在实现朝鲜半岛的统一之前，双方还有许多障碍需要逐一克服。

实现统一的一个途径可能是通过经济和文化的逐步融合，效仿中国大陆与香港地区或台湾地区之间的模式。这需要两国之间开展合作与对话，也需要国际社会的支持。

Ultimately, whether or not North and South Korea can be reunited will depend on a range of factors, including political will, economic conditions, social attitudes, and the geopolitical environment. While it is a challenging and complex issue, there is still hope that a peaceful and prosperous Korean peninsula can be achieved in the future.

最终，朝鲜半岛能否实现统一，取决于政治意愿、经济条件、社会态度和地缘政治环境等一系列因素。虽然这是一个具有挑战性的复杂问题，但未来仍然有希望实现一个和平与繁荣的朝鲜半岛。

Horizon Parking Ltd

Yes they can as long as the yanks keep their warmongering noses out

They split their country in two after creating a war, the yanks are the Bane of the world

是的，只要美国佬把他们唯恐天下不乱的手挪开，朝鲜半岛就可以统一了。

美国在朝鲜半岛挑起战争，把朝鲜一分为二，美国佬就是全世界的毒瘤祸害。

Sarra Antonovna Kozlova

Yes. One day, the Korea's *WILL* reunite. They will then attack their larger adversary and it will cause world war 3.

是的。总有一天，朝鲜半岛会重新统一的。然后他们会攻打比他们更大的对手，挑起第三次世界大战。

Haibin

Of course. When the US forces withdraw from the Western Pacific, dismantle the military bases of South Korea and Japan, and warships no longer travel in the first island chain, South Korea and North Korea will usher in the best external conditions and opportunities for reunification.

当然可以了。只要美军撤出西太平洋，拆除美军设在韩国和日本的军事基地，美军的军舰不再在第一岛链上航行，韩国和朝鲜就能迎来最好的外部局面和统一机会。

AE.jje

In fact, it's not that we haven't made efforts for unification. Although the North Korea and South Korea president took place, it seems difficult for the two Koreas to unify through general exchanges, just as the relationship between the two Koreas has shifted again. I think the background of the reunification of East and West Germany was well ‘prepared for unification’ due to exchanges and other conditions. However, the two Koreas seem to be insufficient to prepare for reunification. So, it may not be impossible, but it will take more complex research, thorough preparation for unification, and a long time for the unification of South and North Korea. - This is a highly subjective point of view.

我们并不是没有为统一做出努力。虽然朝韩双方举行了南北首脑会谈，但在南北关系再度发生改变的情况下，双方很难通过一般的交流推动南北统一。我认为，东、西德当年能够统一，是因为社会背景已经为统一做好了充分的准备。但是，南北韩似乎还没有做好统一的准备。因此，统一并非毫无可能，但需要更复杂的研究和更周密的准备，朝鲜半岛的统一需要很长时间。—这是我本人非常主观的看法。

Jay Park

I think we can…but we also want China, Russia, Japan and US do not interfere with our unification as we believe all of them really do not want us to be unified.

我认为我们能够统一，但我们也希望中国、俄罗斯、日本和美国不要干涉我们的统一，因为我们相信他们并不希望看到我们统一。

Ronald Kimmons

They certainly could, and both sides want to. The problem is that they don't agree on who would be in charge or what form of government the united Korea would have. Naturally, Li'l Kim wants to rule over all of Korea…but the folks in the South aren't so keen on that.

他们当然有可能统一，而且朝韩双方都希望统一。问题在于，他们对谁来执掌朝鲜半岛或统一的朝鲜半岛将组建什么样的政府等事情上的意见无法统一。当然，金正日想要统治整个朝鲜半岛，但韩国人民对此没有兴趣。

Nk Teck

Nothing is impossible!!!

Reasons can’t be described in short sentences. However, even both Korean some how want to be reunite but this two super power China and USA know the impact of reunited.

Interest of China and USA over not let both Korea to be reunited has been well explained in over 100 answered.

天下万事皆有可能！

至于原因，无法用简短的句子来描述。即使朝韩两国都想要统一，但中国和美国这两个超级大国都很清楚朝鲜半岛实现统一的影响。

中国和美国阻挠朝鲜半岛统一的好处已经在100多个回答中得到了很好的解释。

Shane Hughes

They will be. It's a matter of when not if. I would say before 2050.

The North Korean regime is weak. They may look strong but they are very sensitive to the outside world and as hints from the outside world seep into Pyongyang, the ordinary people will rise up.

Kim Jong Un will die. When he does, if the state hasnt been through a revolution already, it will be hard to see a peaceful transition of power.

So it's inevitable the dystopian, repressive, nightmare regime will end.

他们会统一的。他们的统一只是时间早晚而已，不是会不会的问题。我认为他们会在2050年之前实现统一。

朝鲜政权很脆弱。虽然他们看起来很强硬，但对外界局势非常敏感，一旦外界动向渗透到平壤，朝鲜民众就会奋起反抗。

金正恩总有故去的一天。如果他离世时朝鲜还没有经历过革命，政治权力就很难平稳过渡。因此，这个反乌托邦的、压抑的、噩梦般的政权将不可避免地走向终结。

So, shortly after some sort of pro de ocracy leader is chosen in North Korea there will undoubtedly be a meeting between the leaders of both Korea's and international leaders then after.

At the same time you'd have many millions of North Koreans leaving the nations. Many will go to China and even more to South Korea. Both nations would be a culture shock of unimaginable scale to the refugees but south Korea more so due to its de ocracy and western influence.

North Korea's population would fall by at least 1/3 in the short to medium term. But that's just the begng.

因此，只要朝鲜选出支持皿煮的领导人，朝韩两国和国际领导人就会很快举行会晤。

与此同时，会有数百万朝鲜人离开朝鲜。许多朝鲜人会前往中国，但会有更多朝鲜人前往韩国。这两个国家对朝鲜难民来说都拥有难以想象的巨大的文化冲击，但韩国由于其皿煮政权和西方的影响，会给朝鲜难民带来更大的文化冲击。

在中短期内，朝鲜人口将减少至少三分之一。但这只是开始。

So my bet is .. it wouldn't be a German style integration. Instead a gradual cooperation plan over 20 years. By the end of which there would be one korea. Immediate full union would not work. But a well paced integration plan, piece by piece would allow for stable integration. Symbolic unification first, official after.

But yes .. it probably will happen and within the next 30/40 years.

所以我打赌…朝鲜半岛的统一不会是东、西德式的统一，而是通过也许超过20年的渐进式合作。等到那个时候，朝鲜半岛两国会重新统一成朝鲜。当下马上全面统一是行不通的。但如果制订了一个步调合理的统一计划，一点一点地将推动平稳统一。先象征性统一，再正式统一。

但是，朝韩两国是会统一的…可能在未来30/40年内就能实现。

Grym Pruruege

Absolutely not, because if North and South Korea reunite just like what it did since the collapse of East Germany did. If Korean Reunification wins under South Korea then it would mean that China and Russia would suffer from outside interference from the west and the United States which also means U.S troops near the Sino and Russian border and how thus would be used to block Chinese and Russian expansion in which China and Russia resent this.

绝对不可能统一，因为如果朝鲜和韩国是像东德崩溃后才实现了东、西德的统一。如果朝鲜半岛被韩国统一，那么这就意味着中国和俄罗斯将遭受来自西方和美国的外部势力干涉，这也意味着美国会在中俄边境附近驻军，阻止中俄的扩张，中国和俄罗斯会对此非常不满。

Because of this reunification under South Korea would mean setting up U.S military bases there too in which the Russian Federation or the Chinese Co unist party will NEVER allow.

That is why China and Russia need North Korea as a buffer state.

如果朝鲜半岛被韩国统一，那么就意味着美国也会在朝鲜建立军事基地，而这是俄罗斯或中国绝对不允许的。

这就是中国和俄罗斯把朝鲜当做缓冲国的原因。