如果中国对美元和美国经济整体失去信心，收回对美国的借款，会有什么后果

If the Chinese lost confidence in the USD and US economy as a whole, then called in their loans to the US, what might the consequences be?

如果中国对美元和美国经济整体失去信心，收回对美国的借款，会有什么后果？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Jim Robert

The question is faulty. China does not “loan” the United States money.

China holds US treasury notes, which to China are a type of US dollars. The so-called “national debt” is nothing like personal debt or business debt. It has never been “paid off” since the 1830s, and it never has to be paid off. No one, including China, can “call it in”. US taxpayers do not really even pay interest on it. Since the interest rate, on average, on all of that the so-called debt is usually approxmately equal to the yearly inflation rate and the yearly deficit always exceeds the total interest it is fair to say that the interest paid is part of the deficit and not paid by taxpayers.

这个问题是错误的。中国并没有向美国提供“借款”。

中国持有美国国债，对中国来说，美国国债就是一种美元。所谓的“国债”与个人债或企业债完全不同。自19世纪30年代以来，美国从未被”还清”过，也从来不需要被还清过。没有人，包括中国，可以“收回”这些国债。美国纳税人甚至都不需要为此支付利息。这些国债的利率通常约等于年度通胀率，而年度赤字总是超过总利息，所以公平地说，支付的利息是赤字的一部分，而不是纳税人支付的。

The “national debt” is best looked at as the part of the money supply that represents reserves, or savings, held in dollars. The debt is actually a type of money, to the holders, like China, it is dollars that don't shrink because of inflation.

It's not like the USA owes China money that it couldn't pay. The “debt” could be replaced by cash money in a second, the fed and the treasury controls the money supply. This won't happen, but it could.

So… China holds treasuries, which are interest bearing US dollars. They would have a lot to lose if those dollars lost value because of something they did.

“美国国债”被视为货币供应中代表储备或储蓄的部分，以美元的形式存在。美国国债实际上就是一种货币，对于像中国这样的持有者来说，美国国债是不会因为通胀而缩水的美元资产。

美国并没有欠中国的钱，无力偿还。“美国国债”随时都可以用现金来替换，美联储和财政部控制着美元的货币供应。这种情况不会发生，但也是有可能的。

所以……中国持有美国国债，这些国债是有利息的美元。如果这些美元因为他们的所作所为而贬值，他们将损失惨重。

Sandy J

Can a bank call in its home loan to you because it has lost confidence in you despite you making payments on time? If it can’t, neither can China.

银行会因为你按时还款而对你失去信心，取消发放给你的住房借款吗？如果银行不行，中国也不行。

Nigel Baker

China has never loaned the US anything. The Chinese central bank has bought US treasuries on the open market, as a US treasury bond is the pinnacle of stability. If they wanted to close out their position they'd have to find something better to invest in. And since that's impossible the only reason they'd ever sell SOME treasuries is to raise dollars. Central banks, just like any corporation, need to raise foregn currency from time to time. Conceivably a big enough reallocation by China could have a noticeable effect of Treasuries.

中国从未为美国提供过任何借款。中国央行在公开市场上购买了美国国债，因为美国国债是最稳定的资产。如果他们想平仓，就必须先找到更好的投资对象。但这是不可能的，他们出售美国国债的唯一目的就是筹集美元。中央银行和所有公司一样，都需要不时筹集外汇。可以想象，中国如果重新进行巨额配置，可能会对美国国债产生明显的影响。

Bill Sze

What loan? They hold US bonds, they can sell them on the open market, but there is no loan to call in. What is the consequence of China selling all of its dollar holdings? China holds less than 4% of total US national debt. There will be a small drop in the bond market due to supply and demand and due to psychological shock to the uninitiated. Things will go on as usual. The problem is not foreigners holding of US debts, the problem is how do US curb its deficit spending.

什么借款？他们持有美国债券，可以在公开市场上出售，但并不等于赎回借款。中国抛售所有美元资产的后果是什么？中国持有的美国国债还不到美国国债总额的4%。受供求关系和对外行的心理冲击影响，债券市场会出现小幅下跌。但随后一切照旧。问题不在于外国人持有美国国债，问题在于美国要如何遏制赤字支出。

Days

There's no need. We're already using dollars. The construction of overseas infrastructure has spent all of them, which is the reason why China has a huge trade surplus in recent years and the US dollar foreign exchange has not increased. I must say that it is unrealistic to destroy the American economy in this way.

没有必要。我们已经在使用美元了。海外基础设施的建设把这些美元都花光了，这也是中国近年来贸易顺差巨大、但美元外汇并未增加的原因。我必须说，想通过这种方式破坏美国经济是不现实的。

On Hiatus

There is a widespread belief that China can somehow “call in it's loans" and screw the US. This is wrong in many ways, but the two biggest are:

人们普遍认为，中国可以以某种方式“收回借款”，然后让美国吃不了兜着走。这种想法在很多方面都是错误的，但最大的两个问题在于：

China owns Treasury Bonds and Notes. It can't force early payment on these. They can sell all their holdings, but that would cause them to lose tons of money and wouldn't hurt the US much because US debt to China is small compared to our total debt, the size of our economy, and demand for US debt securities. If China sold off ALL of it's US debt, it would take about three months for US debt markets to stabilize. The money China lost by dum all of our debt would have a considerably greater lasting impact on China than the temporary disequilibrium would have on the US.

中国拥有美国国债和票据，但不能强制提前偿还。他们可以抛售中国持有的所有美国国债，此举会导致他们遭受大量资金损失，但并不会对美国造成太大伤害，因为美国的国债总额、经济规模和对美国国债证券的需求相比，中国持有的美国国债规模很小。如果中国抛售持有的所有美国国债，美国国债市场大概需要三个月的时间才能稳定下来。中国因抛售所有的美国国债而损失的资金，对中国造成的持久影响比美国国债市场暂时失衡对美国造成的影响大多了。

John Biles

Bonds can’t be redeemed until the time of the bond comes up.

For US bonds, that’s 30 years.

China could stop buying new bonds, but someone else would just buy the new bonds and very slowly, China’s holdings would turn into dollars.

So China ends up with dollars anyway.

在国债到期之前，是不能赎回的。

对于美国国债来说，这个期限是30年。

中国可以不再购买新国债，但其他人会购买，中国持有的美国国债会慢慢地变成美元。

所以中国最终还是会持有美元。

Sandy Squ

I honestly think it would be a complete country wide economic crash . I also think it would cause a complete uprise of the citizens of the United States ! I think crime rates would fallow in a very bad way complete kaos . I do not know about economics or anything like it so I would also , like to know some feedback from someone that is schooled in this area.

老实说，我认为此举会造成全国性的经济崩溃。同时，还会引起美国公民的全面起义！我认为犯罪率会大幅升高。我不懂经济学之类的专业知识，所以我也想知道在这个领域受过教育的人有什么看法。

Yves Larrousse-Lacou

They can’t do that. All they can is sell their US treasury bonds and stop buying them. Treasury bonds have a defined term and interest. You can’t call them before that term. All you can do is sell them on the market if you find some buyers and risk losing some money.

他们做不到。他们能做的就是出售美国国债，停止购买新的美国国债。美国国债有固定的期限和利息，在到期之前是无法赎回的。你所能做的就是，在市场上物色一些买家，冒着损失资金的风险出售美国国债。

Jeffrey Cohen

They can’t call in their loans. US debt is paid in the form of bonds. They pay out interest at a fixed schedule, then they mature at a predetermined time. Bond holders can sell the remainder of those payments on the open market, but they cannot demand payment ahead of schedule.

他们无法收回借款。美国国债是以债券的形式交易的，按固定的时间表来支付利息，在预定的时间到期赎回。债券持有人可以在公开市场上出售剩余价值，但无法要求提前赎回。

Anonymous

That is not how bonds work.

If they want to dump them, they are welcome to do so at market rates or even to deliberately lose $100 Billion dollars.

We do not care.

债券的交易规则并非如此。

如果他们想要抛售这些债券，他们可以按照市场利率出售，甚至可能承担1000亿美元的损失。

我们不在乎。

David Garcia

ok, lets say the US prints the bills and ship them over to china, what do u think will happen?

the inflation will destroy the global economy, and make the dollar worthless

short answer, don’t want to make it complicated!

好吧，假设美国开动印钞机并把纸币运到中国，你认为会发生什么？

通货膨胀会摧毁全球经济，美元也会一文不值。

简而言之，别把事情搞得太复杂！

Susan N.

Hypothetically if China were to ask for all the money we owe them, it would make sense for the US to come up with a RUNNING tally of how much America spent on curtailing financial disaster, saving lives in hospitals, and paying American’s relief checks for the debacle China caused the country by not quarantining the corona virus quickly within their own borders, etc., etc. Final costs TBD. We would then deduct all those costs with projections from future outbreaks (should they occur), from what we owe China.

Needless to say, the debt to China would be significantly reduced, if not eliminated.

假设中国要求我们还清欠下的钱，美国就有理由列出美国在遏制金融灾难、拯救病人性命、为中国没能在自己境内迅速隔离新冠病毒而给美国造成的灾难而支付的救济支票等方面的支出。最终成本有待确定。然后，我们还可以根据对未来疫情(万一发生)的预测，从我们欠中国的费用中全部扣除。

毋庸置疑，美国欠中国的债务将大幅减少，甚至可能完全消除。

Martin Brilliant

“No way. You bought Treasury securities with fixed redemption dates. You agreed that we would redeem those securities on their redemption dates and not a day sooner. If you want your money, you can sell the securities on the open market.”

What would happen if China asked the USA to pay all the debt it owes it?

“想多了。你们购买的是有固定赎回日期的国债。你们同意我们在赎回日赎回这些债券，一天都不能提前。如果你们想要拿回你们的钱，可以在公开市场上出售这些债券。”

如果中国要求美国偿还欠下的所有债务，会发生什么？

Karen Stepeck

Well I guess we would have to ask all the countries that owe us money to pay it back. Then we could pay the Chinese and have money left over!

我想我们必须要求所有欠我们钱的国家都赶紧还钱。这样我们就可以把钱还给中国人，手头还能有结余！

Danny Auyeung

It won't be a good idea for China to call the loans. Even if China calls the loans the damage can be contained but China will have incurred losses as well. The U.S. public institutions and individuals and U.S. allies can easily absorb the T bills held by China which amounted to about 4% of outstanding national debt.

对中国而言，收回借款并不是一个好主意。就算中国要求偿还借款，中国也会遭受极大损失。美国的公共机构和个人以及美国的盟友可以轻松地吸收中国持有的美国国债（占待支付的美国国债总额的4%左右）。

Gary Goodell

Indirectly they could, by dum all of their now $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries to other buyers immediately. This would not eliminate the debt, it would only transfer the debt to the new buyer(s). However, it WOULD show the world that China no longer has faith and trust on the US government in paying the money back…at any time, regardless of just when the maturity dates of those bonds would be.

他们可以立即将目前持有的1.2万亿美元美国国债全部抛售给其他买家，间接地实现这一目标。这个做法并不会让债务消失，只是把债务转移给新的买家。但此举可以向世界表明，无论这些国债的到期日是何时，中国都不相信美国政府会偿还这些资金。

Buddha Buck

Can China call in the United States debt?

No.

The US Debt is in the form of bonds, each of which is a contract, specifying exactly when, and how much, each interest and principal payment is. The bondholder cannot change that schedule, nor can the US government.

China buys US bonds on the open market, and when they want cash instead of bonds, they sell it on the open market.

中国能收回美国国债吗？

不能。

美国国债是以债券形式存在的，每一份国债都是一份合同，明确规定了每次利息和本金的支付时间和金额。债券持有人无法改变还款日期，美国政府也不能。

中国在公开市场上购买美国国债，如果他们需要现金时，他们可以在公开市场上出售美国国债。