Why are there so many Indians that predict India' GDP will surpass China's GDP in the near future?

为什么那么多印度人预测印度的GDP很快就会超过中国？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Nanda Kumar

India will never beat China economically in next 50 years, probably never.

Reasons:

1.Low stress on education.

2.Many states with different languages and morality of politicians.

3.It is not a country, it is a subcontinent. ( Similar to Africa)

4.Caste system where higher caste consistently suppress the down trodden.

5.Only 20% of women participate in the economy, less than Saudi Arabia!

6.Uncontrolled population growth brings down the GDP not push up.

在未来50年内，印度经济绝不可能超过中国，可能也永远无法超过中国。

原因有几点：

1.对教育的重视程度不够。

2.许多邦有各自不同的语言，政客品行不一。

3.印度不像是一个国家，而是一整个次大陆(和非洲很像)。

4.印度的种姓制度，高种姓长期凌驾于受压迫阶级。

5.只有20%的印度女性参与经济建设，比沙特阿拉伯还低！

6.失控的人口增长没有推高GDP，反而拖累了GDP。

I visited India after 20 years gap and travelled 200 miles to my alma matter.. All villages on the way, are look exactly the same. Old people with poor clothing and hygiene, emaciated sitting under a tree waiting to die. Younger, I suppose left the villages looking for work. Modi has done good work in the last 10 year. Under Congress, politicians ( 60) years totally neglected and extreme corruption. It is still have corruption. It appears in the blood. Foreign tourists are aghast with the state of affairs very much. What one can do. Court system is a disaster. Shame full. They are talking about “SUPER POWER”. People are in denial. Bangladesh is doing better!

时隔20年后，我再度访问印度，跋涉200英里回到了我的母校。沿途所有的村庄还是和20年前一模一样。衣衫褴褛、浑身脏污的瘦弱老人，坐在树下等待着死亡的降临。年轻人估计都离开村子外出打工了。莫迪在过去10年里已经做得很好了。在国大党执政的60年间，政客们不负责任、极端腐败。现在印度也还是有腐败现象，这已经融入印度人的血液了。外国游客对印度的现状大为震惊。一个人能做什么呢。司法系统就是一场灾难，实在让人羞愧。印度人张口闭口都是“超级大国”，但印度人拒绝接受现实。孟加拉国现在都比印度发展得更好了！

Derek Gould

They are interpolating from population growth.

If Indians can out-reproduce Chinese, they can out-GDP them too.

他们是根据人口增长速度而作此推断的。

如果印度人的生育能力超过中国人，印度的GDP也可以超过中国人。

Satya Vaan

It’s not impossible.

Even Ray Dalio sees this next century as India’s century/millennium.

Who knows.

What we do know is we’re on a rocket ship. So the odds are great.

这也不是不可能。

就连雷·达利奥也认为下个世纪是属于印度的世纪。

谁知道呢。

我们只知道印度正在一艘高速行驶的火箭上，所以这个可能性很大。

Yausi Tamn

they are deceptive and talking shit they want to deceive desperate investors to rush into India that's why , Indians are lazy as slugs how will they generate all that ? they are under paid so how will they boost spending ? and most of their GDP will be possessed and controlled by the Jews which will be the main reason why they cannot get there , all bullshit big mouth talking

他们这是在骗人，想把投资者骗来印度。印度人像鼻涕虫一样懒，他们怎么可能创造GDP？他们的工资非常低，怎么可能促进消费？他们的大部分GDP都会被犹太人占有和控制，这就是他们无法超越中国的主要原因，这种自嗨纯属胡说八道。

Krishna Kumar Subramanian

Why not?

Because you don’t think so?

You’ll have SOME credibility if you show yourself.

Right now, you have ZERO.

And you are questioning others?

Come on out, coward!

And learn some English, for heavens’ sake! Quora Moderation had a hard time reworking your “question”.

为什么不会超过中国呢？

因为你不这么认为？

如果你敢出来露个面，你还多少有点可信度。

可现在你不敢露面。

你居然还敢质疑别人？

快点现身吧，胆小鬼！

看在上帝的份上，多少学点英语吧！Quora网站可是费了老大功夫才改好了你的“提问”。

Arch Stanton

THIS has been going on since the earlyish 2000s when the internet became international.

After interacting with these indians bragging and boasting and bragging and boasting and talking big shiitittee about "incredible! superpower! india!, one learned VERY FAST that all the big shitteetalking indians ARE UNIVERSALLY TEENAGE ADOLESCENT MALES...... IN OTHER WORDS: they are the typical ADOLESCENT BOYZ that is full of bravado and chest puffing AND VERY SHORT OF ANY REAL KNOWLEDGE OF FACTS (more on this shortly).......

自21世纪初互联网国际化以来，这种情况一直在持续。

我跟这些印度人互动过，他们不停地吹牛，吹牛，吹牛，总是高呼”印度！了不起的超级大国！”很快，人们就发现这些整天废话连篇的印度人基本上都是青少年......换句话说：他们就是典型的青春期男孩，只懂得拍胸脯说大话，对事实缺乏真正的认知(稍后会详细介绍).......

Now that 2 decades have passed, those FORMER ADOLESCENT BOYZ of 2 decades PAST are now males in their 30s and (HOPEFULLY) the REALITIES of life have "set in"...... PARTICULARLY THE REALITY THAT ALL THAT 2 DECADES AGO "incredible! superpower! india! WILL SURPASS chineee" has come nowhere remotely close and that these NOW 30something year-old MEN have to still live in the india THEY EXPECTED TO BE BUT NEVER CAME TO PASS......

现在20年过去了，20年前的那批青少年现在成了30多岁的男人，(希望)他们开始发现现实生活的真相......尤其是20年前他们高呼“了不起的超级大国会超越中国”但至今依然遥遥无期、未能实现的现实，这些30多岁的男人还生活在他们想象中的印度，但他们的期盼从未实现......

MEANWHILE: there is no shortage of new "upcoming" generation OF TEENAGE ADOLESCENT MALES THAT ARE THE NOW THOSE WHO WILL BRAG AND BOOAST AND BRAG AND BOAST AND TALK BIG SHIIITTEE ABOUT "incredible! superpower! india WILL surpass chineeee"!

THE big difference between NOW and 2 decades ago is that the "gap between China and incredible! superpower! india! IS NOW SOOOOOOOOOO WIDE that "China cannot even see incredible! superpower! india! in the rear window anymore"......

与此同时，新一代的青少年一茬又一茬地涌现，他们会继续吹嘘、吹嘘、不断吹嘘和谈论“了不起的超级大国印度将超过中国！”

现在和20年前最大的不同在于，“中国和了不起的超级大国印度的差距已经有如天堑，“中国回头望的时候连印度的影子都看不到了”......

And on that "very short of any real knowledge of facts" is VERY exemplified by a posting by some indian BOY during the 2000s that said something along the lines: "china is just a house of cards that will all collapse when one pushes the door in"..... I ALMOST FELL OVER WHEN I READ THAT!!!!...... if you don't know that is literally verbatim what adolph hitler said about invading the Soviet Union.

If YOU have NO idea what I mean by that then go look up THE END RESULTS OF HITLER AND THE NAZIS INVADING THE USSR!

至于“对事实缺乏真正的了解”这一点，有位印度男孩在二零零几年发布过一个帖子，很好地证明了这一点，他说：“中国只是一个纸牌屋，只要轻轻推门，纸牌屋就会倒塌”.....我当时看到这个帖子的时候，差点摔一跤！！！你知道吗，这是阿道夫·希特勒对入侵苏联的计划发表的言论，一字不差。

也许你还不清楚我在说什么，你去搜索一下希特勒和纳粹军队入侵苏联的最终结局吧！

Epstein Lance

These are cheap dogs who only bark at those who their Western white masters ask them to bark at. So bark at China, hate Muslims hate this and that.

If anything India has to aim for replacing the West and US not China.

这些印度人都是不要脸的走狗，只会听西方白人主子的命令，让他们冲谁叫就冲谁叫。所以他们冲着中国口吐狂言，讨厌MSL，讨厌这个讨厌那个。

印度的目标是要取代谁，那么应该是西方和美国，而非中国。

Subramaniam Duraisamy

I don't think we need to predict anything. Infact this comparison of India with China itself is a fallacy that has no foundation. This might sound controversial, but hear this out.

What is common between the two nations apart from the fact that both have a similar population and “victims” of colonialism?

Discounting the above two factors do we have *anything* at all in common with China?.

Do we follow the same religion? Are there any similarities with an Indian Tamil and a Chinese in Northeastern provinces? Do we follow the same political systems?. Do we have the same laws? Same education systems? Any shared culture? Do we have any shared history of trade like we do with Egypt or Southeast Asia?

我认为我们不需要预测任何事情。事实上，把印度和中国进行比较本身就是一个毫无依据的谬论。这个说法可能听起来存在争议，但请你们好好听清楚。

除了两国都有相似的人口规模，都是殖民*义的“受害者”之外，还有什么其他的共同之处吗？

考虑到上述两个因素，我们与中国有什么共同之处吗？

我们信仰相同的宗教吗？印度泰米尔人和中国东北部省份的人有什么相似之处吗？我们遵循同样的政治制度吗？我们有同样的法律吗？有同样的教育体系吗？有共同的文化吗？我们之间的贸易史有跟我们和埃及或东南亚一样吗？

On what basis should we compare India and China - two completely different societies in 2023, just because both attained freedom at the same time and have the same population by the virtue of being settled in and around the most fertile river basins?.

This is a futile comparison we are attempting to achieve and it's a losing proposition. Even at some point if we do overtake China, it's nothing to be proud of. GDP is a number just like your age. What matters is how objectively and subjectively the quality of lives are for people.

India has got only itself to— compare with. Are we doing better than we were in the past few decades?. The answer to that is yes. The most stringent naysayers and critics are forced to eat humble pie

印度和中国都在最肥沃的河流流域定居，同时赢得国家自由，拥有相同的人口规模，但现在是2023年，印度和中国已经发展成两个完全不同的社会了，我们应该在什么基础上进行比较呢？

这种比较是徒劳的，我们试图展开对比，但失败了。就算在未来某一天，我们真的超过了中国，也没有什么好值得骄傲的。GDP和年龄一样，只是一个数字。最重要的是人们的生活水平在客观上和主观上到达了什么样的高度。

印度只能和自己做比较。我们是不是比过去几十年做得更好了？答案是肯定的。意见最大的反对者和批评者也不得不承认这一点。

For those who do want to compare with China, I would ask the following questions

Are you willing to follow the same political system as Chinese?

Are you willing to sacrifice 70 hours per week to work in a sweatshop?. Because that is what China did 3 decades back?

Are you willing to support Chinese style laws?. Tomorrow if the government decides to arbitrarily seize your land and make way for a new factory that can provide employment to 1000 people, would you heartily part with it or protest?.

Do you have the same work ethic as Chinese ?. Or do you value “work-life balance” more than creating value to your nation?.

对于那些一心想和中国比较的人，我想问问他们下面几个问题

你愿意遵循和中国那样的政治制度吗？

你愿意每周在血汗工厂劳作70个小时吗？中国30年来就是这样做的，你可知道？

你愿意支持中国那样的法律吗？如果政府想要随意征用你的土地，为一个可以提供1000个就业岗位的新工厂让路，你会真心愿意放弃还是提出抗议？

你的职业操守和中国人一样吗？或者说相较于为国家创造价值，你更看重“工作与生活的平衡”呢？

If you just answered “No” to all the above questions, then you better not compare the GDP or any damn thing with China. You cannot achieve Chinese style growth without those sacrifices.

I have worked with actual Chinese people. Unlike some Quora authors who claim to know more about China sitting from Chennai, I have seen them work. No nation can match their work ethic and commitment and zeal.

If you want to enjoy Indian style freedom and Chinese style economic growth, you can try sakkara Pongal and vadacurry for tomorrow's breakfast.

如果你对上述所有问题的回答都是“不”，那么你最好就不要把GDP跟中国做比较了。做不到这些牺牲，你就不可能实现中国式的增长。

我和真正的中国人一起工作过。不像Quora的某些作者，人在金奈坐，自称对中国有多了解，我是真实看到中国人工作的样子。他们的职业操守、责任感和热情无人能及。

Santosh Kumar

We can predict about going to Jupyter and what not. The prediction is based on some assumptions. The assumption in question here is that systemic issues with economy can be addressed in a decade or so. We will generate enough jobs, industrialize, attract top talent innovate and blah blah. Realistically we Indians are growing at snail rate and though we do grow it is nowhere near China.

我们可以预测登陆木星之类的事情。但这个预测只是基于一些假设而已。这些假设就是，我们能在10年左右的时间里解决印度经济的系统性问题。我们可以创造足够的就业机会，实现工业化，吸引顶尖人才创新等等。但现实情况是，我们印度正在以蜗牛的速度前进，虽然我们确实有在发展，但比起中国差得远呢。

Vipul Advani

The bitter truth about our country is that the average Indian doesn't think twice before cheating or lying. They know that they can get away with it and so they do. Stories about India’s supposed successes - present or future - are mostly concocted fantasies of people who have nothing to do. I simply wish our people would only be more honest and original and work hard to achieve true glory and success.

我们国家有一个令人难以接受的社会现实，普通印度人在欺骗或撒谎之前是不会三思而后行的。他们知道自己可以逍遥法外，所以他们就只管胡说八道。关于印度所谓的成功—无论是现在还是未来—大多都是那些无所事事的人编造出来的幻想。我希望印度人能够更加诚实坦率，努力工作，赢得真正的荣誉和成功。