Japan says that it will help Taiwan if attacked.  What do you think?

日本表示，若台湾受到攻击，日方愿意支援。大家怎么看

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Lightning

I give you a logical answer. Most likely Japan will only give moral help. Japan is in no way is going to send troops to fight for Taiwan knowing full well the millions of innocent nanking citizens massacred in China cannot be forgotten in history.

Whereas america knows that the moment US troops or even US weapons are send to Taiwan, it amounts to starting a war with China.

Russia and north korea will only be too happy to see that day to happen. This is result Russia, north korea and China automatically forming a military alliance to fight america at its own shores.

我来给你一个合乎逻辑的答案吧。日本很可能只会提供道义上的帮助。但日本绝对不会派兵为台湾而战的，因为日本也非常清楚，被日本无情屠杀的数百万无辜南京公民是不会被历史遗忘的。

而美国知道，一旦美国将军队甚至军火送往台湾，就等于宣告与中国大陆开战。

俄罗斯和朝鲜则会非常高兴地看到这一天的到来。这是俄罗斯、朝鲜和中国组成军事联盟，在美国自己的海岸线与美国作战的结果。

Lei Robin

I know that many people in Taiwan believe that the United States and japan will protect Taiwan. However, as of now, there is no written agreement on this protection. It is not even recognized by the ruling party. Any country that protects another country has to pay a price, so what do they want to gain? Protecting Taiwan means going to war with China. I believe that with China’s current military capabilities, no country can easily defeat it, including the United States. Do you think you'd lose a hand for ice cream?

我知道很多台湾相信美国和日本会保护台湾。但截至目前，他们之间并未就这种保护签订过书面协议。甚至连执政党都不承认这一点。任何一个国家想要保护另一个地方，都是要付出代价的，他们这么做是想要得到什么回报呢？协防台湾就意味着与中国大陆开战。我相信，以中国大陆目前的军事实力，任何国家都不可能轻易打败中国大陆的，美国也一样。你觉得你愿意为冰淇淋失去一只手吗？

Eric Lee

If Japan want to help (and without the help from their papa USA), I think China will be very happy.

This may end up China and certain fraction in Taiwan form a united front against Japan.

如果日本想帮忙（而且是在缺少美国爸爸援助的情况下），我认为中国会非常高兴。

这可能导致中国大陆和台湾地区的某些群体形成抗日统一战线。

Chen Zhi Hao (Chen Chih-Hao)

I do not want Japan to help Taiwan.

Our issues are ours to solve. If Japan tries to invade Chinese territory, I will advocate the KMT and work together in another united front to take down Japan.

KMT fought the Japanese once. We can do it again.

我不希望日本帮助台弯。

我们的问题应该留给我们自己解决。如果日本试图入侵中国领土，我会提议两党在再次组成统一战线，共同击败日本。

国民党和日本打过一次。我们大可以再打一次。

US We

I think at the most, Japan would provide logistical support in hel Taiwanese escape the island, and places for them to take temporarily refuge.

It’s not likely Japan would actually fight China, if that’s the help people are thinking.

For many many many reasons, some which have been listed extensively here on quora.

我认为，日本最多只会提供后勤支持，帮助台弯人逃离该岛，并为他们提供临时避难所。

日本不太可能真的攻打中国大陆的，如果这是人们想象中的帮助的话。

背后的原因有很多，已经有人在quora上列举出来了。

Ben Lu

My take is China would not need to attack Taiwan but just need to enforce sovoreignty over Taiwan control access to Taiwan from undesired foreign forces. Any other country trying intervene by force is an act of war against China.

我的观点是，中国大陆不需要攻打台湾地区，只需要对台弯实施主权，阻止不受欢迎的外国军队进入台弯地区。任何国家试图武力干涉台弯，都等同于对中国大陆宣战。

Victor Sum

As a diplomatic term, "help" is open to a wide range of interpretations. For example, humanitarian aid, providing food and medicine to civilians affected by war.

But if it escalates to sending armed forces to intervene in the Taiwan Strait war, then I think the Japanese government will be under tremendous pressure from China and Japan.

I have always believed that even if China loses the war, as long as the regime does not collapse, China will have the power to retaliate against other countries that intervened in the war other than the United States. At this point, China has nothing to lose. Even if for unify the country, revenge is necessary.

作为一个外交术语，“帮助”有各种各样的解释。例如，提供人道主义援助，为受到战争影响的平民提供食品和药品。

但如果日本的帮助是派遣军队干预台海战争，那么我认为日本政府就会同时面对来自中国和日本的巨大压力。

我一直认为，就算中国大陆输掉了战争，但只要国家不崩溃，中国就有能力对美国以外的其他参战国进行报复。

在这一点上，中国没有什么可顾虑的。即便是为了统一国家，也是必须进行复仇的。

Arthur Zhang

We Chinese are very glad to see it. It is the high time for revenge. Actually, if it is just reunification war, ,less than 50% of Chinese would not have the interest because it is just a civil war. But if Japanese help Taiwan, 99% of Chinese will support the war against the previous invader.

我们中国人对此感到非常高兴。这是我们复仇的时候了。事实上，如果这只是统一战争，感兴趣的中国人估计不会超过50%，因为这只是一场内战而已。但如果日本出手帮助台弯，99%的中国人都会支持中国对抗日本这个历史侵略者。

Tetsuya

As a Japanese, I don’t believe the Japanese government said that it would help Taiwan since Japanese law clearly says that Japan Self Defence Forces can not use any physical power for any country except only protecting Japan.

Only thing Japan can do is to support Taiwan in financial aspect or help those who escape from Taiwan.

作为一个日本人，我不相信日本政府真的说过要帮助台弯，因为日本法律明文规定，日本自卫队只能保护日本，不能为了其他任何地区而使用武力。

日本唯一能做的就是在经济上支持台弯，或者帮助那些逃离台弯岛的人。

Tim Cheng

Well, i wish Japan have balls and not eat its words .A lot of Chinese will be very excited if Japan help Taiwan in the mainland’s Uniting-Taiwan war.Because thus it is a very very very rare ,precious and rightous oppertunity for China and Chinese people to carry out a war towards japan and with the aim to not only defeat Japan in the battlefield but also completely destroy the whole Japan.

好吧，那我倒是希望日本是真的有胆，不要食言。如果日本在中国武统时帮助台弯，很多中国人都会兴奋不已。因为中国和中国人民可以对日本发动战争，不仅要在战场上打败日本，更要彻底消灭整个日本，这是一个非常非常难得的、宝贵的、正当的机会。

What the Chinese people had not done towards Japan in 1945 after the japan surrender unconditionly , we could do it in this war, by now. What the Japanese did to China and Chinese people during the 1870–1945, China and Chinese people are very excited to repay in the same way.

There is an old Chinese saying : is it ok to carry out a revenge after 9 generations’ time ? At last ,again ,i wish Japan have balls and really will do what it claims now.

1945年日本无条件投降后，中国人民没有对日本发起复仇，现在就可以在这场战争中完成了。日本人在1870-1945年间对中国和中国人民都犯下过什么滔天大罪，中国和中国人民会非常激愤地用同样的方式进行报复。

中国有句古话：君子报仇，十年不晚。

最后，我再说一次，我希望日本真的有种，说到做到。

Alan Johnson

Nobody directly attacks a nuclear country. Not even other nuclear countries.

Even just sending battle ships to help defend Taiwan would be risky.

At most they could sell tech to Taiwan, or offer aid (of the food, resources, and money kind)

没有人会直接攻击一个有核武器的国家。其他有核核武器的国家也不敢轻举妄动。

就算只是派出军舰帮助台弯进行防御，也是有风险的。

他们最多只能对台弯出售技术，或者提供援助，比如食物、资源和金钱

And really, unless something strange happens, China will not attack Taiwan, because it knows that due to Taiwan’s position as a producer of chips for “everything important”, the US can’t afford to let China have Taiwan right now.

Maintaining the status quo is better for everyone.

事实上，除非发生意外，否则中国大陆不会攻打台弯地区，因为中国很清楚一点，台湾是”非常重要”的芯片生产地区，美国现在不会让中国收复台弯的。

维持现状对大家都是好事。

Andy C

japan wont help taiwan , even US dare not to send troops to ukraine …. and china military budget and men power are much higher than russia. Russia was ranked as # 2 military because it has most nuclear weapons in the world. conventiional war wise, china is much stronger than russia

Even US wont dare to send troops to taiwan let alone japan , a much weaker country

日本不会帮助台弯，就连美国也不敢派兵帮助乌克兰....中国的军事预算和兵力比俄罗斯高多了。俄罗斯在军事实力上排名第二，是因为它拥有全球最多的核武器。但就常规战争而言，中国的作战实力比俄罗斯强大得多。

美国都不敢派兵到台弯，更不用说日本这么一个弱鸡国家了。

Ty Homes

Live to see that happen. Then good luck to the survival of the Japanese.

我一定要活到见证这一幕的时候。祝日本人可以逃过一劫。

Lynn

The Chinese will get very excited and then seize the opportunity to take revenge

中国人会非常兴奋，一定会抓住机会报复的

Shun Bot

I’ve said it before in other answers, Japanese participation will be crucial in determining the outcome of a war over Taiwan. If the Japanese are willing to fully commit their air, naval and ground forces to the defense of Taiwan, then the job of the PLA will become extremely difficult.

我以前在其他答案中说过，日本参战与否，就是决定台海战争结果的关键。

Wumaos tend to underestimate the strength of the Japanese navy. While it is certainly not the world-class naval power it once was, the JMSDF still has more major surface combatants than the US does on this side of the Pacific at any given time. The Japanese air force also has hundreds of 4th gen fighters based in the islands near Taiwan.

一些人常常低估了日本海军的实力。虽然它现在肯定不是曾经的世界顶级海军了，但日本海上自卫队在太平洋的战斗人员仍然比美国多。日本空军还在台弯附近的岛屿上部署了数百架第四代战斗机。

And now that Luzon (the main northern island of the Philippines) is in play as a giant American naval and air base, this means that the PLA will need to fight on THREE fronts:

The Okinawa northern front

The Taiwan central front

The Luzon southern front

现在，吕宋岛(菲律宾北部的主要岛屿)已成为美国海军和空军的大型基地，这意味着解放军需要应对三条战线的战斗：

冲绳北线

台弯中央战线

吕宋岛南线

Now, to be clear, I still think that a PLA victory under this worst case scenario is possible. It will just require the full commitment of all Chinese military and civilian resources. Beiing needs to put on its big boy pants and aggressively bombard American bases in Okinawa, Kyushu and Luzon. It cannot hold back (which China historically loves to do in wars).

现在，我仍然认为，即便是在这种最不利的情况下，解放军仍然有可能取得胜利。中国只需要动员所有的军事和民用资源就可以了。中国必须态度强硬，大胆轰炸美军在冲绳、九州和吕宋岛的基地。中国绝不能退缩（历史上，中国在战争中经常这样）。

There is one more scenario that is even worse than what I described above and that would be the participation of South Korea. The South Korean navy is actually more potent than the Japanese one, even if it is a little smaller. Because South Korea is not hobbled by Article 9 restrictions, its navy has far stronger offensive capabilities.

The reasons why I don’t think a Korean intervention is very likely are:

North Korea will use the opportunity to strike, and South Korea prioritizes its northern front more than Taiwan.

还有一种情况比我上面描述的更糟糕，那就是韩国也参与进来。事实上，虽然韩国海军比日本海军规模略小，但实力更为强大。这是因为韩国没有受到第9条的限制，韩国海军的进攻能力要强大得多。

我认为韩国不太可能卷入战局的原因是：

朝鲜会利用这个机会进行打击，韩国会重点考虑北部战线，而非台湾。