US Naval Blockade Against China Won't Work

美国海军对中国的封锁不会起作用

We examine the impact on the Chinese war economy from a US naval blockade of the Strait of Malacca, and how China might respond to mitigate the impact.

研究美国海军封锁马六甲海峡对中国战时经济的影响，以及中国会如何应对以减轻这种影响。

以下是外国网友的评论：

precipice65

US seem to think all their enemies will just sit back and let them do whatever they want.

美国以为他们所有的敌人都会坐视不管，会让他们为所欲为。

filipzietek5146

Even if the US fleet was capable of intercepting the Chinese missles they would simply run out of interceptors really quickly.

即使美国舰队有能力拦截中国导弹，拦截器很快也会用光。

xnyiquan666

most of oil is  from Russia and iran,   russia send oil to china by pi,  and iran can send oil by  train or road  directly from parkistan and rail to china, also china is building pi from iran directly to china  via  Pakistan ,   china does not even need  ship  via the sea,  also , china has huge reserve of its own oil too,  china imports  lots of oil , but china itself is also big producer of oil in last  60 years, it store most of oil as reserve,  also china economy is now using more green engery, it is reducing oil using,

大多数的石油来自俄罗斯和伊朗。俄罗斯通过管道向中国输送石油，伊朗石油可以通过火车或直接从巴基斯坦的公路和铁路送到中国。中国甚至不需要通过海运。

中国也有庞大的石油储备，中国进口大量的石油，但中国本身也是大石油生产国，60年来储存了很多石油。

此外，中国经济逐渐加大使用绿色能源，正在减少石油的消耗。

lifeisgood141

According to an article on Asia Times by David Goldman, China has more than enough anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles to target all U.S. surface warships and their missile defense. Plus, China's advanced, AI manufacturing capacity can produce thousands of missiles and other military hardware per week.

根据大卫·戈德曼在《亚洲时报》上的一篇文章，中国有足够多的反舰导弹、弹道导弹，瞄准所有美国水面战舰及其导弹防御系统。

此外，中国先进的人工智能制造能力，每周可以生产数千枚导弹和其他军事硬件。

fatdoi003

decoupling with china is crazy.... declaring war with china is madness to say the least..

和中国脱钩是疯狂的，向中国宣战也是疯狂的…

nostradamus2642

US DDG attempting blockade can't dodge Mach-10 DF-27, DF26 in the Indian Ocean, SCS or in the Pacific.

在印度洋、南海或太平洋，美国驱逐舰如果进行封锁，就无法避开速度10马赫的东风-27和东风- 26。

usermk99

Perhaps you missed a point about alternates,  One is Gwader Port in Pakistan.   That's another alternate / backup route for China's trade / oil supplies if Malacca is blocked or war happens.   This port is at mouth of persian gulf, all middle east oil passes right in front of it.   There is already a land route connection (highway) from Gwader port straight to China.     Russia will be primary oil supplier and then there are other alternates.  Malacca was relevant 20 years ago.  Today it's blockage will not hurt China as much.    Secondly,  China has enough Naval power & missile power to deter any blockage at first place.

也许你忽略了替代方案，一个是巴基斯坦的瓜达尔港。一旦爆发战争， 如果马六甲被封锁，这是中国贸易/石油供应的另一条备用路线。

这个港口是波斯湾的出海口，所有的中东石油都要经过这里。

从瓜达尔港到中国已经有一条陆路连接(公路)。

俄罗斯是主要的石油供应国，然后还有其他替代选择。

20年前封锁马六甲，影响是是很严重的。

但今天的封锁不会对中国造成那么大的伤害。

其次，中国有足够的海军力量和导弹力量，打破一切封锁。

ooikk8458

The Chinese will rain down missiles on the naval blockade. No body knows how many missiles are on store in China. Judging by Russia endless flow of missiles in Ukraine, i believe China might have the same capacity as Russia.

中国能大量发射导弹，打破海上封锁线。没有人知道中国储备了多少导弹。

从俄罗斯向乌克兰源源不断发射导弹来看，我相信中国可能有和俄罗斯一样的能力。

WeiPan88

China will just sit back and let that happen ?  Childish !!!

中国会坐以待毙吗？幼稚！

xnyiquan666

also china will  block every merchant ship to US too,   china can also send land force and enter Alaska  via russia ,  another thing is china can supply all big gears to  alll those groups such as Houthi movement , they will block  entire  gulf  for any shipment to US and EU,  also china can send air force taking off from iran or parkistan  to  block entire gulf  region for any shipment to US   , also china has way more navy warships  to dispatch to gulf region than US navy

中国也会封锁所有驶往美国的商船，中国也可以派遣陆军通过俄罗斯进入阿拉斯加，另外中国可以向胡塞等武装组织提供武器，他们会封锁整个海湾地区运往美国和欧盟的任何货物，中国也可以从伊朗或巴基斯坦派遣空军起飞，封锁整个海湾地区运往美国的任何货物，而且中国有比美国海军更多的军舰派遣到海湾地区。

oboknb1oboknb147

Don't need 30 minutes to explain. Common sense dictate that you would need a vastly superior navy to make it work.

不需要用30分钟来解释。常识告诉我们，你需要一支强大得多的海军才能封锁马六甲海峡。

brianliew5901

US naval blockade of China? The Americans must be really tired of living.

美国海军封锁中国？美国人一定是活腻了。

COLINJELY

Indonesia and Malaysia border the Straits of Malacca. Both these countries do extensive trade with China. They might not be too receptive to the USN disrupting that trade. USN ships could find themselves under attack, also unable to resupply and refuel

印度尼西亚和马来西亚毗邻马六甲海峡。这两个国家都与中国有广泛的贸易往来。他们可能不会太接受美国海军破坏这种贸易。美国海军舰艇可能会受到攻击，也无法补给和加油。

dyong888

Conducting a naval blockade requires massive logistics - ship and crew rotations, resupply missions, not to mention similar missions for aviation. Just look at what is happening off the coast of Yemen. Even the yankee navy cannot sustain it indefinitely.

Besides these will be vulnerable to attack. Naval blockades only work against an enemy of inferior sea and air power. The PLA can easily destroy amerikan naval and air assets within the first island chain and amerikan ships at sea. To execute the blockade, the yankees will need to divert ships and concentrate them presumably in the Straits of Malacca. And that's when the PLA can strike. After its ships are lost, how will amerika conduct a war against China? Its a catch 22 for the yankee war mongers.

进行海上封锁需要大量的后勤保障——军舰和船员的轮换，补给，更不用说空中支持了。看看也门海岸发生的事情就知道了。

即使是美国海军也不能无限期地维持下去。

海军封锁只对海空力量较弱的敌人有效。

解放军可以轻易摧毁第一岛链内的美国海军和空军资产以及海上的美国军舰。

为了实施封锁，美国人需要转移军舰，并将它们集中在马六甲海峡，这就是解放军可以发动攻击的时候。

在失去舰船后，美国如何对中国发动战争？

洋基佬战争贩子面临两难选择。

sportingusa

China can bypass malacca straits by using the Pakistan and Cambodia ports and then use land transport in event of a blockade.  Malacca straits is bordered by Indonesia and Malaysia and the oil is the life line of the Middle East.  Will all these countries stand idly by.

中国可以通过巴基斯坦和柬埔寨的港口绕过马六甲海峡，一旦海上被封锁，可以使用陆路运输。

马六甲海峡与印度尼西亚和马来西亚接壤，石油是中东的生命线。这些国家会袖手旁观吗?

phils4634

This is how the US caused their Pearl Harbour incident - by blockading Japanese imports, so as usual the US was the aggressor. The Chinese Brass know this very well, and so "mitigation" of such an attempt will be a very high priority.

这就是美国造成日本偷袭珍珠港事件的原因——他们封锁日本进口，所以像往常一样，美国是侵略者。中国高层非常清楚这一点，因此“缓和”这种企图是关键

xnyiquan666

china has way bigger iron ore reserve than australia,  only thing it does not produce much of its own its grade is not very high for those iron ore, but it only add cost to refine , , also china has most of granite and magnets and other metal reserve,   which are crucial for all weapnoary and electronics and  batteries,    china will block all these supply to US,  that will shut down every industry in US and EU,  plus 99% rare earth is from china

中国的铁矿石储量比澳大利亚大得多，唯一的问题是它自己生产的不多，这些铁矿石的等级不是很高，提炼成本大，而且中国拥有大部分花岗岩、磁铁和其他金属储备，这些对生产武器、电子产品和电池都至关重要，中国将封锁所有这些对美国的供应，导致美国和欧盟的所有行业关闭，此外加上99%的稀土来自中国。

TingTong-mh6ns

What would toiletless country, US poodle lapdog do ??

那个缺厕所的国家，美国贵宾哈巴狗会怎么做?

marvinfok65

An old fleet going to blockade a new fleet??? US fleet average age of their warships were 35 years old while the Chinese were 15! This is not to mention that the Chinese is still adding new ships to their navy!

Not to mention China had very long-distance hypersonic missiles which the US don't have and US can't intercept hypersonic missiles at current stage!

老舰队要封锁新舰队？美国军舰的平均服役年龄是35年，而中国是15年！

更不用说中国还在为他们的海军增加新军舰了！更不用说中国有超远程的高超音速导弹，而美国没有，而且美国目前还无法拦截高超音速导弹!

tonyyin8524

US naval blockade against China would result in quick suspension of consumer, commercial, and military exports America require to run its economy and its military. Since government and private consumption is more than 70% of the US economy, which it has no short-term alternatives to Chinese imports either directly or through third-party nations, US economy would grind to a halt faster than Chinese economy because while you could print endless dollars, you can't print manufactured products. Also, economies of US vassal states like Japan, RoK, and Philippines would implode just as quickly.

美国对中国进行海上封锁，将导致美国经济和军事运行所需的消费、商业和军事出口迅速暂停。

由于政府和私人消费占美国经济的70%以上，短期内无法通过第三方国家替代中国进口商品，美国经济会比中国经济更快地陷入停顿，你可以无限制地印美元，但你凭空变不出来成品

此外，日本、韩国和菲律宾等美国附属国的经济也会迅速崩溃。

sportingusa

You miss out South America.  China is importing wheat and other food as well as iron ore from Brazil.  As well as oil from Venezuela.

你忽略了南美。中国正在从巴西进口小麦和其他食品以及铁矿石。还有委内瑞拉的石油。

networm78

How much is the US willing to lose to hold the blockade?

为了维持封锁，美国愿意付出多大的代价?

mingpoyang

If China loses, Russia would be alone to face the US next. Russia has to make sure China is well supplied.

如果中国输了，下一个面对美国的会是俄罗斯。俄罗斯必须确保中国供应充足。

MASMIWA

Keep in mind that China is reducing its need for oil and gas by increasing its nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro sources.  Especially nuclear,  China will have the world's largest nuclear power fleet in the world by 2035.

As for bypassing the Malacca Straits, there are also routes to China via Pakistan, Myanmar, and Cambodia.  And, if the Kra Canal becomes reality, another route to bypass the Malacca Straits will exst.

请记住，中国正在增加核能、太阳能、风能和水力资源，减少对石油和天然气的需求。特别是核电，到2035年，中国将拥有世界上最庞大的核电机队。

至于绕过马六甲海峡，也有途经巴基斯坦、缅甸和柬埔寨到中国的路线。而且，如果克拉运河成为现实，另一条绕过马六甲海峡的路线将会出现。

mejust8392

They are most welcome to try. It seems someone is clueless as to the simple fact that the largest supplier of China oil is also the closest to it, just to the north of its northern coast.

非常欢迎他们尝试。似乎有人忽略了一点，即中国最大的石油供应国也是离中国最近的，就在中国北部海岸的北部。

elmohead

Even if the Malacca strait is blocked, can just use Sunda strait... Or any of the waters in Indonesia. Whats usa gonna do? Block all of Indonesia's waters inside Indonesia?

即使马六甲海峡被封锁，也可以利用巽他海峡，或者印尼的其他水域。我们该怎么办？封锁印尼境内的所有水域？

yopyop3241

Note that the overwhelming majority of Russian resources are transported to China via the Indian Ocean and Malacca. When China loses access to the Persian Gulf, it will also lose access to the overwhelming majority of Russian resources, too.

Also note that the great circle arc from China to anywhere in the Western Hemisphere runs along the US West Coast, up by the Aleutians, and down past the main Japanese islands. Ship from the New World is easily interdicted.

请注意，绝大多数俄罗斯资源都是通过印度洋和马六甲运往中国的。一旦失去通往波斯湾的通道，中国也就无法获得俄罗斯绝大多数资源

还要注意的是，从中国到西半球任何地方，沿着美国西海岸，向上经过阿留申群岛，向下经过日本主要岛屿。来自新大陆的船只很容易被封锁。

gelinrefira

It is also possible to move oil through the Indonesian archipelago from the Indian ocean if push comes to shove. Remember that China is now one of west Asian countries biggest customers for their oil. Any blockade will cause huge losses for all of them, and there are also a lot of incentives for Indonesia to help facilitate trade with China.

如果事态严重，从印度洋，穿过印尼群岛运输石油，也是可能的。请记住，中国现在是西亚国家最大的石油客户之一。任何封锁都会给大家造成严重损失，印尼也有很多措施促进与中国的贸易。

williesaw1213

it is very stupid idea to have blockage to China. how will it affect to Middel eastern countries? who they can sell the oil beside China?

封锁中国是愚蠢之举。对中东国家有何影响？除卖给了中国，他们还能把石油卖给谁？