Why China Will NOT Become The NEXT Japan

为什么中国不会成为下一个日本

China is facing some big challenges right now: a real estate crisis, population issues, trade tensions with the U.S., and worrying debt levels. These problems remind many people of Japan in the 1980s, sparking fears that China’s economy might slow down like Japan's did. Japan went through what's called "Japanification," where economic activity slowed, prices and wages fell, and growth potential declined.

So, will China end up like Japan with decades of stagnant growth? The answer is no.

中国目前正面临着一些严峻的挑战：房地产危机、人口问题、与美国的贸易紧张关系以及令人担忧的债务水平。

这些问题让很多人想起了上世纪80年代的日本，引发了人们对中国经济可能会步日本后尘而出现放缓的担忧。日本经历了所谓的“日本化”，经济活动放缓，物价和工资下降，增长潜力下降。

那么，中国最终会像日本一样，经历几十年的增长停滞吗？答案是否定的。

以下是各国网友的评论：

WeAretheWorld89

Because China is not evil

因为中国并不坏

taiwanstillisntacountry

JPN occupied country.

China, independent country.

日本，被占领的国家。

中国，独立的国家。

zhongguojiayou2675

Reason why China will not fail like Japan did, is simply because their economy is larger than Japan's, plus their manufacturing base, the effectiveness of China to be self sufficient, it's vast global economic clout, something which Japan did NOT have. Plus, Japan, post WW2, Japan was a pacifist country due to its defeat to America, China has a large standing military for defence, it now has nuclear deterence, hence why countries are now, scared of China, economically, & militarily, so therefore will think twice about trying anything with China.

中国不会像日本那样失败，原因很简单，因为他们的经济规模比日本庞大，加上他们的制造业基础，中国能自给自足，且有强大的全球经济影响力，这是日本没有的。

另外，日本，二战输给了美国，中国有庞大的常备军用于防御，现在又有核威慑，所以现在各国在经济上和军事上都害怕中国，在对中国采取行动之前都会三思而行。

pekinoei1042

Why should China like Japan... China has very firm economic foundation, China also has the high tech to support it's production lines and development... And China got full support from its citizens which no country has  ever had it before...

So, China will not like Japan or any country in this world...

为什么中国会成为日本？中国有非常坚实的经济基础，也有高科技发展…中国得到了国民的全力支持，这是任何国家都未曾有过的。

所以，中国不会成为下一个日本，也不会成为其他国家…

raylee5030

Japan was done in with the Plaza Accord.

《广场协议》让日本完蛋了。

charleshah4336

The population and size of landmass of China will never become the next Japan, China will be stronger than ever. Chinese are hard working and intelligent race.

考虑到中国的人口和国土面积，他们永远不会成为下一个日本，中国会比以往任何时候都更强大。中国人民勤劳聪明。

bertranbelzor9037

There's One other factor you've decided not to mention in Japan's slump. It's the fact that the US was able to dictate some of Japan's monetary policy to align with the US interest and slow down Japan's competition with the US. That, the US can never do that with China.

Since China is not under the Yankees' occupation, the latter has decided to try to manipulate the Global South against China with their narrative of OverCapacity / Overproduction. But, their Dirty manipulation can no longer work in the Global South.

日本出现经济衰退，还有一个因素是，美国能够支配日本的一些货币政策，使其与美国的利益保持一致，并减缓日本与美国的竞争。但美国永远不能对中国那样做。

由于中国不在美国佬的占领之下，美国佬已经决定用产能过剩的说法，蛊惑全球南方对抗中国。

但是，他们脏脏的伎俩，在全球南方再也行不通了。

kennedy6618

Japan is an American servant...I don't think China wants to be  another American playgrounds!  

日本是美国的仆人，我认为中国不会成为美国的下一个游乐场

namasi7070

Japan too closely tied to US. Like Germany, they sometimes do things thats good for US but not for themselves.

日本与美国关系太紧密了。就像德国，他们有时会做一些对美国有利但对自己不利的事情。

wynetsang

There are thousands of US soldiers stationing in Japan.

有成千上万的美国士兵驻扎在日本。

nsng1298

In the 1980s, the U.S. accounted for 40% of Japan's export. Therefore, Japan's economy was too dependent on the U.S. market. At the same time Japan's domestic was too small.

But the U.S. only accounts for 17% of total Chinese export and this represents less than 3% of its GDP. This percentage has been decreasing as China has increased its exports with other countries. China is the largest trading partner with over 130 countries. Moreover, China's domestic market is massive. Therefore, China's economy is less dependent on the U.S. market.

上世纪80年代，美国占日本出口的40%。当时，日本经济过于依赖美国市场。与此同时，日本的国内经济规模太小。

而美国只占中国出口总额的17%，占中国GDP的比重不到3%。随着中国对其他国家的出口增加，这一比例一直在下降。中国是世界上130多个国家的最大贸易伙伴。此外，中国国内市场规模庞大，中国经济对美国市场的依赖程度较低。

user-yc8yu8qv3q

China is a sovereign country,  japan isn't.. This is the difference.. China can make policies based on our national interest,  and will not bend to others threat..  Japan can't do same..

中国是主权国家，日本不是，这就是区别…中国可以根据国家利益制定政策，不会屈服于别人的威胁。日本却不能…

Ace1000ks19751982

Automation and robotics will reduce the need for people in the future, so population decline might not be a bad thing.

自动化和机器人技术会在未来减少对人的需求，所以人口减少可能不是一件坏事。

Who-lg9my

japans foreign, military, financial policies are essentially dictated by America.   Japanese success was capped by American when it threaten to overtake Americans.   Japan relied heavy on American and western markets.  overseas investment essentially followed Americas.

China tries to develop new markets by investment in Africa and South America and bnri .  plus china change from low level manufacturing to high tech sand green manufacturing.  also focusing on securing resources globally.

日本的外交、军事和金融政策基本上是由美国主导的。当日本威胁到美国时，美国就给他压制下去。日本严重依赖美国和西方市场。海外投资基本上跟随美国。

中国试图通过在非洲、南美和一带一路的投资，开发新市场。加上中国从低水平制造业转向高科技和绿色制造业，也在大力获取全球资源。

Mearex

China is reaching a point where manufacturing cheap goods at huge quantities alone will no longer cut it, and they must now start focusing on the quality of products, and really start to transition from a purely manufacturing based economy to a manufacturing and technology based one

中国正处于这样一个阶段，单靠大量生产廉价商品已经无法满足需求，他们现在必须开始提高产品的质量，并真正开始从纯粹以制造业为基础的经济转向以制造业和技术为基础的经济

willengel2458

Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea have something in common, they are not normal countries.

日本、德国、意大利和韩国有一些共同点，他们不是正常的国家。

user-hq3fg1wb4q

China has stop the beating by the foreigners and stood up to them, while Japan is getting use to it,

中国已经不再忍受外国殴打了，站起来反抗他们，而日本习惯挨打。

markc6140

Come on real estate again. Give me a break. How on earth can China be the next Japan and neither will be it like America. Japan is a vassal state of America. China will craft out its own path and excel further than America in next 20 to 30 years.

拜托，又是房地产，饶了我吧。中国怎么可能成为下一个日本，也不会成为美国。

日本是美国的附属国，中国会在未来20到30年内走出自己的道路，超越美国。

jimmychoi5219

Don’t forget the downfall of Japan was provided by its ally through the Plaza Accords

别忘了，日本的衰落是由它的盟友逼着签署广场协议造成的

jayyoo906

Why China should follow the colonized economy Japan?

China economy stands alone. The collective West trade is not significant from now on.

为什么中国会跟随日本殖民经济的脚步？

中国经济是独立的。从现在开始，西方的贸易并不重要。

ericwong4213

Japan: We absorbed US bonds into our economy as we are hardworking people and love to support US economy.

China: We dumped US bonds to other buyers, and cash in the rest.

Japan: Wait, we can do that?

USA: No. you can't.

日本：我们吸收了美国债券进入我们的经济，我们是勤劳的人民，喜欢支持美国经济。

中国：我们把美国债券卖给了其他买家，把剩下的换成了现金。

日本：等等，我们也能这么做?

美国：不，你不能。

matters

Learn from others' mistakes. China are trying to develop reliable airplanes, chips, and operating systems to stop rely on foreign countries.

Also need to open up immigration, reform housing and education to boost productivity without population boom.

从别人的错误中吸取教训。中国正在大力开发大飞机、芯片和操作系统，努力摆脱对外国的依赖。还需要开放移民，改革住房和教育，在人口不激增的情况下提高生产率。

truthful3777

China is self sustained country.  They have everything in the country. China now no need to  depend on other countries to survive.

中国是一个自给自足的国家。他们拥有这个国家的一切。中国的生存不需要依赖其他国家

Andy-P

Japan got rich before it got old.

日本在老龄化之前就富起来了。

mythbusterthe6749

China is not facing some big challenges or collapsing as propagate by the MSM ftom across the Pacific and West.

It is a net surplus economy with very little foreign or external debt to GDP -17.8% versus 132% for U know which nation, Japan and UK.

中国并没有像太平洋和西方的主流媒体所宣传的那样面临一些重大挑战或出现崩溃。

它是一个净盈余经济体，外债占GDP的比例非常低，为17.8%，而日本和英国的这个比例则为132%。

mikeshen9293

No comparison! You will see who is better! Chinese has every quality! Japanese doesn’t, nobody can’t stop China Going forward, Japanese everything just temporary

没有可比性！你们会看到谁更好的！没有人能阻止中国前进，日本的一切问题只是暂时的。

DK-ev9dg

Never. China having trade surplus with over 125 countries and leading and spreading in every imaginative field.

绝不会的。中国与超过125个国家保持贸易顺差，在所有领域都处于领先地位。

SathyaswamyS

india will be like next japan. Proud to be indian

印度将成为下一个日本。为自己是印度人而自豪

dexong1959

Japan is still a defacto colony

日本实际上仍然是一个殖民地

iamintibet5761

China is already ahead of Japan, don't worry

别担心，中国已经领先日本了