The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?

中国的崛起与美国的衰落：权力转移与战争，还是和平更替?

The near consensus that China is a rising power, and the United States is experiencing relative decline has led both scholars and policymakers to think carefully about how this dynamic might play out in the near future. The power transition school offers a dire prognosis that a great power war between China and the United States is serious possibility. I will explain the power transition school and why they believe war between China and the United States is a distant possibility. I will also examine a body of literature that looks at peaceful change as a way of accommodating changes in the distribution of power without the mechanism of Great Power War. In this regard, the paper will consider two very different bodies of literature on one of the most pressing issues of the time; namely, the rise of China and what this means for international order in the twenty-first century.

中国是一个正在崛起的大国，而美国正相对衰落，这一共识促使学者和政策制定者仔细思考这种动态在不久的将来会如何发展。

权力转移学派提出了一种可怕的预测，即中美之间极有可能爆发大国战争。

另一学派将和平更替视为在没有大国战争机制的情况下适应权力分配变化的一种方式。

解释权力转移学派，以及为什么他们认为中美可能爆发战争，中国的崛起及其对21世纪国际秩序的影响。

以下是外国网友的评论：

Zerpentsa6598

US was in decline even if China had not developed as it did. China did not cause the decline.  Rather the US was suffering a malaise of its own making.

即使中国没有崛起，美国也在衰落。中国并不是造成美国衰退的原因。其实，美国的衰退是自作自受的。

jimlopez5992

China did all these without firing a single shot.

中国不费一枪一弹就做到了这一切。

qinisogcabashe5956

We are tired of US, from Africa

我们厌倦了美国

--非洲

joepup8348

China has never gone around colonizing and conquering other countries or peoples even when it was at its most powerful. Instead, it has traded with them. When you make stuff people want (silk, porcelain, teas, etc) you can just sell that to get the stuff you want.

This was true even during China's great age of exploration, during the 1400s when it sailed huge fleets across the Indian Ocean to Africa numerous times. It never took an acre of land. It simply traded with the African peoples.

即使在最强大的时候，中国也从来没有四处殖民，征服其他国家或民族。相反，中国与他们进行贸易，出口丝绸、瓷器、茶叶等，进行易货交易

即使在中国伟大的探险时代也是如此，在15世纪，中国派出庞大的舰队多次穿越印度洋前往非洲。从不占用人家一亩地，只是与非洲人民进行贸易。

supergroovy8346

As a South Asian, I used to love American supremacy and western liberalism because I thought it came with a lot of freedoms, like free press etc. But the JennySide in Gaza has completely blown me out of my dream state or hypnosis. All of that was just smart manipulation by a group of elite capitalist. Even the ordinary American is in some kind of bondage where they can't escape. The elite class manipulates you, gas lights you and steals from you. Its like being in a relationship with a psychopath that constantly lies and steals from you and physically harms you and makes you think its your own fault.

作为一个南亚人，我曾经喜欢美国的霸权和西方的自由主义，我当时认为它带来了很多自由，比如新闻自由等。

但是加沙已经完全把我从梦中或催眠状态中叫醒了。所有这一切都是一群精英资本家的巧妙操纵。即使是普通的美国人也处于某种无法逃脱的束缚之中。

NCee

If you have good understanding of China's values, culture, history and philosophies, you will know that the theory of power satisfaction does not apply.

Further, this set of theories are basically western world view, which is narrow minded.

如果你对中国的价值观、文化、历史和哲学很了解，你就会知道权力满足理论对他们并不适用。这套理论基本上是西方的世界观，是狭隘的。

desmondho9567

During the Qing dynasty, they made the biggest mistake of not building up its military mights. That's why those Imperial Colonial pirates have taken the opportunity to push opium and used it military to try to break up China, after the opium war, China has to lease Hong Kong and Macau for 99 years. China deem it as century of humiliation. Built more weapons to deter these Imperial Colonial pirates.

清朝犯了最大的错误，没有建立自己的军事力量。造成那些帝国殖民强盗抓住机会，肆无忌惮倾销鸦片，试图分裂中国。中国视之为百年耻辱。建造更多的武器，阻止这些帝国殖民强盗。

alexpan8138

As a Chinese, it seems like we are okay to stay under the current world order, as long as USA doesn’t push us too much(which they already did) and containment military encirclement etc. Because we THRIVE in the current world order, we out-compete everybody else without a fight, we are smart, hardworking and have long term panning and very efficient at executing. We don’t need a war to go to the Top.

我是中国人，我认为只要美国不要把我们逼得太紧（他们已经这么做了），不要对我们进行遏制和军事包围，我们可以继续维持目前的世界秩序。毕竟在当前的世界秩序中，我们经济也是繁荣富强的，我们毫不费力地超过其他人，我们聪明、勤奋、有长期规划、执行效率很高，我们不需要战争就能登上顶峰。

tonyyin8524

Who said de ocracies were peaceful nations? As far back as Sparta v Athens, the Spartans felt de ocracy was aggressive and warlike, not peaceful.

谁说敏煮国家是爱好和平的国家？早在斯巴达vs雅典时，斯巴达人就认为敏煮是侵略性的、好战的，不是和平的。

theinfralink6598

I stopped as soon as he mentioned that the rise of China has implications for regional countries such as Philippines and Vietnam because I know he is up to no good. By mentioning only the two countries having disputes with China, he is disguising all the beneficial aspects of China’s rise with neighboring countries particularly in economic development.

当他提到中国的崛起对菲律宾和越南等地区国家有影响时，我就听不下去了，他不怀好意。他只提到与中国有争端的两个国家，掩盖了中国的崛起给邻国带来的好处，特别是经济发展方面。

michaelto2813

It is quite obvious the current instability is not due to China demanding a huge change to the current globalization situation. Rather the current instability comes from the current dominant power’s sense of insecurity of it top position and its agitations from that insecurity. Hence it is not the dominate power that is satisfied of the current situation. The dominant power’s insecurity is the real source of instability. The world must convince the dominant power that its own insecurity and agitation will cause more harm and it is self inflicted.

很明显，当前的不稳定并不是因为中国要求对当前的全球化形势做出巨大改变。其实，当前的不稳定来自当前主导大国对可能失去霸权的不安全感，以及这种不安全感带来的躁动。

对现状感到不满意的是占主导地位的霸主。这个国家的不安全感是造成不稳定的真正根源。

世界必须说服这个霸权国家，它自己的不安全感是自作自受，是他们自己造成的。

emanian99

China has publicly said over and over again that it will not use nuclear weapons first.  

Which country has used nuclear bombs  unnecessarily in the past?

中国多次公开表示不首先使用核武器。

哪个国家过去使用过核弹？

user-fo2uh4rm5c

In June 2024, 1400000000 of  the People's Republic of CHINA stand firm with the coast guards and the Liberation Army of CHINA defend  the South China Sea against foreign troublemakers according to the laws of the country and the will of the people.

14亿中国人民同中国海警和解放军站在一起，坚决捍卫南海，反对外国滋事者。

physika

I stopped watching after 3mins when he said Australia is nervous over a rising China. For the past 20yrs, China has been overtaking the G7 members one by one but the US didn't behave like today.

他说澳大利亚对崛起的中国感到紧张，我就不看了。在过去的20年里，中国在一个接一个地超越G7成员国，但美国不行了。

LunarGlow92

Chinas military budget  % of gdp, has not increased intentionally, it is there gdp that has grown. They have a very modest military budget of 1.7 percent, less than required of nato countries (2%) and half of what US spends 3.4%. Their purchasing power is also significantly better being that everything is made in china and have invested so much in optimizing manufacturing (automated cruise missile factories capable of making 1000 a day).

中国的军事预算占GDP的百分比并不是有意增加的，而是因为GDP在增长。他们的军事预算非常适中，只占GDP的1.7%，低于北约国家(2%)，是美国3.4%的一半。

他们的购买力也明显更高，一切都是中国制造，并且在优化制造方面投入了大量资金。自动化巡航导弹工厂每天能生产1000枚

siewkonsum7291

All Empires come & go.

No exception.

帝国崛起衰落，无一例外。

narupun3480

PRC is not hawkish, warmonger, aggressive and bully but intend to accumulate enormous wealth diving in international trade which worldwide  people like and China would like to avoid war in any cost.

中国不是鹰派，也不是战争贩子、不侵略、不霸凌，他们在国际贸易中积累了庞大的财富，这是全世界人民喜欢的，中国愿意不惜一切代价避免战争。

chuckt6381

Are u sure u know China?

Please take a long look at China history before giving a lecture relating to China.

你确定你了解中国吗？

在做有关中国的讲座之前，请先好好看看中国的历史。

hannadhalyeey7048

As an African man i would choose China over US 10/10 because I believe under Chinese hegemony peace would prevail, and i hope the develo would rallies behind China as long as they don’t preach and be fair.

作为一个非洲人，我100%会选择中国而不是美国，我相信在中国主导的情况下，和平会占上风，我希望发展中国家团结起来支持中国，他们不说教而且公平。

chriswong9158

Henry Kissinger Quote: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”

亨利·基辛格：“成为美国的敌人可能是危险的，但成为美国的朋友是致命的。”

balajivs69

This theory assumes so many things.

That's why it is far from reality.

这个理论假设了很多东西，与现实相去甚远。

ricotheman8139

For the vast minority of human history, China has always been THE most powerful country on the planet. It’s not China’s rise that you need to study, it’s China’s rejuvenation.

在人类历史上，中国一直是这个星球上最强大的国家。你们需要研究的不是中国的崛起，而是中国的复兴。

Ace1000ks19751982

China isn't trying to be number one. China is more interested in develo its economy, and forming trade networks around the world.

Chinese history has never been about annexng other countries, and taking all their resources. China had a tributary system, it is kind of like trade relations with other countries.

中国并没有想着成为第一。中国更感兴趣的是发展经济，在世界各地建立贸易网络。自古以来，中国不吞并其他国家，不掠夺别国的资源。中国有一个朝贡体系，有点像与其他国家的贸易关系。

eastafrika728

The Chinese understand respect, something western Europeans don't have

中国人懂得尊重，这是西欧人所不具备的

colgategilbert8067

If the US is in Decline, how come its GDP has gone from 2.3 trillion USD in 1950 to 23.2 trillion USD in 2023?  Rather, it is in with drawl on its terms from Globalization.  And China is completely dependent on the Globalization the US created and has protected for its rise.

如果美国在衰落，为什么它的GDP从1950年的2.3万亿美元增长到2023年的23.2万亿美元？它正在从全球化中吸取教训。中国的的崛起完全依赖于美国所创造并维持的全球化。

swapansinha5717

Western countries main problem is believed in capitalism. If capitalism exsts de ocracy doesn't work properly. Because all parties are working as capitalist society says.....as for example India is multi party de ocracy. All parties are as capitalist lobby...

西方国家的主要问题是信奉资 本主义。如果zb主义存在，民*就无法正常运作。所有政党都是一路货色。例如，印度是多党国家。所有政党都是资 本主义游说集团…