China conducts first public test launch of intercontinental ballistic missile

中国首次公开试射洲际弹道导弹

China has announced the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the “high seas” of the Pacific Ocean, flying over the northern point of the Philippines in what is believed to be the first such test since the early 1980s.

中国宣布向太平洋“公海”发射一枚洲际弹道导弹，飞越菲律宾北角。这是中国自上世纪80年代初以来首次进行此类试射。

The launch of the missile, which the defence ministry said was carrying a dummy warhead, comes at a time of growing international scrutiny of the country’s nuclear arsenal, and prompted statements of concern from several nations.

国防部表示，这枚导弹携带的是一枚模拟弹头。发射这枚导弹正值国际社会对该国核武库的审查日益严格之际，并促使几个国家发表了担忧声明。

The ICBM was launched by the People’s Liberation Army rocket force (PLARF) at 8:44am Beiing time on Wednesday. The Chinese defence ministry said the launch was part of a “routine arrangement in our annual training plan”, and the missile “fell into expected sea areas”. It did not provide further details except to say that the launch was not directed at any specific country or target.

北京时间周三上午8点44分，中国人民解放军火箭部队发射了这枚洲际弹道导弹。中国国防部表示，此次发射是“年度训练计划例行安排”的一部分，导弹“落入了预期海域”。但没有提供进一步的细节，仅表示此次发射不针对任何特定的国家或目标。

A separate report by the state mouthpiece inhua said China had notified the “concerned” country or countries in advance, but did not say which ones.

新华社的一篇报道称，中国已提前通知了“相关”国家，但未透露是哪些国家。

The Guardian has confirmed with the Philippines authorities that two Notams – sea and air navigational warnings – for areas to the country’s north-west and north-east were issued on Monday and were “related to the launch”. The Notams specifically cited special operations “conducted by China” but it wasn’t clear the Philippines were informed the operation was an ICBM launch.

《卫报》向菲律宾当局证实，周一菲律宾向该国西北部和东北部地区发布了两份“与此次发射有关”的海上和空中航行警告，特别提到了“中国进行的”特别行动，但不清楚菲律宾是否被告知这次行动是一次洲际弹道导弹发射。

以下是美国reddit网友的评论

Some points

This is not China's first ICBM to the Pacific; the last one was a DF-5 launched 44 years ago. However, the range of this missile is much longer

The news was announced almost immediately after launch

Today marks exactly 12 years since Liaoning was commissioned, and the carrier group is currently in the Philippine Sea, where the missile likely flew over

Large scale exercises in the Bohai Sea coincided with this launch

China's 75th National Day is coming up on October 1

几个点：

这不是中国第一次向太平洋发射洲际弹道导弹，上一次是44年前发射的东风-5。然而，这次导弹的射程要远得多

这一消息几乎是在发射后立即宣布的

今天正好是辽宁舰服役12周年，该航母战斗群目前正在菲律宾海，导弹很可能飞越了那里

在渤海进行的大规模演习与此次发射同时进行

10月1日是中国的第75个国庆节

TheOnesReddit

As an aside, a couple of weeks ago there was a panel with John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, and Sachs repeatedly talked about how close we are to nuclear war. I find it interesting how the timings worked out

说句题外话，几周前约翰·米尔斯海默和杰弗里·萨克斯参加了一个小组讨论，萨克斯反复谈到我们离核战争有多近。我觉得时间安排得很有意思。

u/Lianzuoshou avatar

The world's nuclear forces need to be balanced again to help maintain world peace.

Yes, I mean that China should build one or two thousand nuclear warheads to suppress panic. LAMO

世界核力量需要再次平衡，以维护世界和平。

我的意思是中国应该制造一两千枚核弹头，震慑对手，哈哈

Anallysis

Peace Through Parity

Feels like it could be a slogan.

平等实现和平，感觉就是一句口号。

WillitsThrockmorton

"Ukraine should have never given up nukes!"

乌克兰不该放弃核武器。

Lianzuoshou

Launch site in Hainan, thick smoke, it's a mobile solid missile, probably a DF41.

Chinese domestic netizens estimated it to be a DF31AG and the launch direction was toward Peru.

Pictures are coming in and it is confirmed to be the DF31AG.

This time the missile crossed the Qiongzhou Strait and was launched in China's southernmost province, verifying the mobility and reliability of the system, which is a big step forward, and in the future this type of test launch will become the norm.

发射地点在海南，浓烟弥漫，这是一枚移动式固体导弹，可能是东风-41。

中国网友估计为东风-31AG，发射方向为秘鲁。

图片来了，被证实是东风-31AG。

这次导弹越过琼州海峡，在中国最南端的省份发射，验证了该系统的机动性和可靠性，这是向前迈出的一大步，未来这种类型的试射会成为常态。

barath_s

Civil aviation notifications issued prior to the launch suggested the warhead—fired from the southern Chinese province of Hainan—splashed down north of Tahiti in French Polynesia, some 7,400 miles away.

So the pacific is pretty large and if you draw a line from hainan to the NOTAM area especially at the high end and extend it, it will point roughly to [but not exactly] to Peru ..

发射前发布的民航通知显示，这枚弹头从中国南部省份海南省发射，溅落在法属波利尼西亚塔希提岛以北，距离约7400英里。

太平洋是相当大的，如果你画一条线从海南到航行通告地区，并延伸这条线，会发现大致指向（但不完全是）秘鲁。

heliumagency

Usually, Russian and Chinese ICBM tests are within their borders, they fire it on a really high trajectory and you can map it using ballistic physics to estimate range.

The last time China had a missile test that didn't stay completely within its borders was that FOBS test (which missed the target by 20km).

The fact that this test is not completely within its borders makes me think that they were explicitly testing something like decoy deployment or maneuvering.

通常，俄罗斯和中国的洲际弹道导弹测试是在他们的边界内进行的，在一个非常高的轨道上发射，可以用弹道物理学来绘出估计射程。

中国上一次导弹试射没有完全在其境内是FOBS试验(偏离目标20公里)。

这次测试并没有完全在其境内进行，我认为他们在测试诸如诱饵部署或机动之类的东西。

Delicious_Lab_8304

That test circled the globe, hence the “O” in FOBS meaning ‘orbital’. You could never test such a system wholly within your own borders.

It also launched another object (possibly a weapon) and no one knows what the target actually was or if there was a target - China said it was a reusable space vehicle (hence it should be landing somewhere and not hitting a target). And there are no reports on where the 2nd object ended up.

那次测试环绕地球飞行，FOBS中的“O”就是“轨道”的意思。你永远不可能完全在你自己的境内测试这样一个系统。

它还发射了另一个物体(可能是武器)，没有人知道目标到底是什么，或者是否有目标——中国说这是一个可重复使用的太空飞行器(因此它应该降落在某个地方，而不是击中目标)。也没有关于第二个物体下落的报告。

KE-VO5

Showing Russia how it’s done

让那个俄罗斯看看如何发射成功

MagnesiumOvercast

They don't do one for 40 years and then they very publicly do one a week after the Russians beclown themselves. I feel like these things are planned too far in advance for that to be anything other a coincidence, but lol, lmao, etc.

他们有40年没做这种测试了，俄罗斯的萨尔玛特导弹试射失败后一周，中国公开地试射洲际战略导弹。我觉得这些事情都是提前计划好的，不可能是巧合，哈哈哈哈。

Lianzuoshou

The range of the missile was estimated to be around 11,500 kilometers, based on the location of China's aerospace survey ship, the Yuanwang 5.

A finely calibrated ground projection of the trajectory.

Blue line: May 18, 1980, Mission 580-A, range 9,089 kilometers.

Red line: September 25, 2024, DF-31AG, range 11,698 kilometers.

导弹的射程估计大约11500公里，基于中国航天测量船远望5号的位置。精确校准地面轨迹投影。蓝线：1980年5月18日，580-A任务，射程9089公里。红线：2024年9月25日，东风- 31ag，射程11698公里。

DysphoriaGML

That should be enough to reach the USA, especially if fired by a boat

应该足以打到美国，特别是如果从军舰上发射的话

Lianzuoshou

There is no need to launch from a ship. As long as it is launched in Northeast China, it can cover the entire United States.

However, the ballistic trajectory has to pass through Alaska and Canada, which will greatly increase the risk of interception, which will test the missile's penetration capability.

The best option is something like a suborbital bomber.

没有必要从军舰上发射。只要在中国东北发射，就可以覆盖整个美国。

然而，弹道轨迹必须经过阿拉斯加和加拿大，这会大大增加被拦截的风险，非常考验导弹的突防能力。最好的选择是亚轨道轰炸机。

Lianzuoshou

It could also be launched from northwestern China and take an arctic trajectory, bypassing Alaska and passing through eastern Canada to cover the east-central part of the United States.

也可以从中国西北部发射，沿着北极轨道，绕过阿拉斯加，穿过加拿大东部，打击美国中东部地区。

WZNGT

I heard that the Japanese netizens are getting mad because the US, Australia and even New Zealand all got notified prior to the launch but not Japan lol

我听说日本网民很生气，因为美国、澳大利亚甚至新西兰都在发射前收到了通知，而日本没有提前收到通知，哈哈

u/Temstar avatar

It's not just netizen, the complaint was from Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi

He should realize that PLARF does not require ICBM to strike Japan, shorter range ballistic missiles would do.

不仅仅是网友，内阁官房长官林芳正也发出了这样的抱怨

他应该明白，中国空军不需要用洲际弹道导弹打击日本，短程弹道导弹就够了。

CureLegend

but it doesn't even went over japan. Not even taiwan and philipines

没有飞过日本上空啊，甚至没有飞过台湾地区和菲律宾

nicobackfromthedead4

On the other hand, France is effectively maintaining nuclear deterrence capability.

The US did a show over the summer as well.

The US has conducted back-to-back tests of its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to validate its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

The first test, which occurred on June 4, involved an unarmed ICBM being launched from the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The activity was reportedly meant to demonstrate that America’s nuclear deterrent is reliable and effective to deter modern threats.

法国实际上保持着核威慑能力。今年夏天，美国也做了一场秀。美国对民兵-3型洲际弹道导弹(ICBM)进行了测试，以验证核威慑能力。第一次试验在6月4日，从加州范登堡太空基地发射了一枚洲际弹道导弹。据报道，该测试旨在证明美国的核威慑力量是可靠和有效的，可遏制他国的威胁。

NuclearHeterodoxy

There were 155 successful Trident launches in a row at one point.  It's an excellent missile, recent UK failings aside.

三叉戟导弹连续成功发射了155次。撇开英国最近的失败不谈，这是一款出色的导弹。