Why do most economists believe that India will surpass China in the future?
为什么大多数经济学家相信印度会在将来超越中国？
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来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/45956.html 译者：Joyceliu
外文链接：https://www.quora.com/Why-do-most-economists-believe-that-India-will-surpass-China-in-the-future
Gunjan Das, What would you like to know?
I think. They ("most economist") have invented some device that will streamline the flow of black money from swiss bank accounts directly to Indian banks. And unfortunately that device will be marked as "made in China", this might be the relation.
我认为，他们(“大多数经济学家”)发明了某种装置，可以使从瑞士银行账户直接流向印度银行的黑钱流动变得更加顺畅。不幸的是，这个设备将贴着“中国制造”的标签，这可能就是关系。
Stephen Marydas, works at The Hindu
Most Economist? I don't think so. Somewhere in the future maybe. Not in near future. India has a very young population compared to many economic giants. That's a good thing. But still a lot to catch up....
大多数经济学家?我不这么想。也许在未来的某个时候。在不久的将来。与许多经济大国相比，印度的人口非常年轻。这是一件好事。但是仍然有很大的进步空间....
Sandeep Uppuluri, lived in India
Maybe in population, but we won't surpass china economically. Not in our life time.
也许在人口方面会，但我们在经济上不会超过中国。在我们的有生之年是不可能的。
Terin Rajan, Voice of Free India
Nobody believes this nonsense.
没有人相信这种无稽之谈。
Raj Iyre-Chatterjee, Democrazy at its finest!
Predicting thebfuture is a joke. We’d need to change our culture ENORMOUSLY to become a wealthy AND happy nation. Individualism and enterprise NEEDS to rise!
预测未来是个笑话。我们需要极大地改变我们的文化，才能成为一个富有和幸福的国家。个人主义和企业需要崛起!
Sushma Gutta
I do not think so. China will remain the number 1 economy. China is a manufacturing giant. And there is very less scope for India to replicate that due to various factors.
我不这么认为。中国仍将是世界第一大经济体。中国是制造业巨头。由于各种因素，印度复制这一模式的空间非常小。
Aditi Verma
There are hardly economists who believed this. India requires a lot of improvement to surpass China in the future.
几乎没有经济学家相信这一点。要想在未来超越中国，印度需要做很多改进。
Anonymous
Generally speaking, the argument is based on China’s demographic trap. It’s simply not possible for a baby boom of any size in China to alter the rapid aging — and even numerical decline — of its population; even a massive baby boom would simply slow the process.
Regardless, as the frequency of advancements in and real-world application of automation and machine learning dramatically increases, the rising view is that out-sized populations may become not only less and less relevant to national economic power — they may even become a liability.
If so, the United States may be poised to retain its position at the front of the economic order rather than becoming one of three global leaders. America’s primary challenges remain in the realms of the fiscal and military.
总的来说，这个论点是基于中国的人口陷阱。在中国，任何规模的婴儿潮都不可能改变人口的迅速老龄化——甚至会出现人口数量的下降；即使是大规模的婴儿潮也会减缓这一进程。
无论如何，随着自动化和机器学习在现实世界的应用的频率显著增加，越来越多的人认为，人口规模过大不仅会越来越少地与国家经济实力相关，甚至可能成为一种负担。
如果是这样，美国可能会保持其在经济秩序前沿的地位，而不是成为全球三大领导人之一。美国面临的主要挑战仍然是财政和军事领域。
Nitin Bhamvani, Born an Indian
Their main arguments are related to India's more youthful population and the fact that, as a de ocracy, it has already been established for over 67 years.
Nothing is guaranteed, however, and India still has a mountain to climb before anyone will accept it as the 'real deal'.
他们的主要论点与印度更年轻的人口以及印度作为一个民*国家已经建立超过67年的事实有关。
然而，没有什么是一定的，在任何人接受这一“事实”之前，印度还有一座大山要翻越。
Deepak S Fernandes, works at Infosys
My opinion is that predicting the future beyond 15 to 20 years is no better than a random guess.
India may surpass China only in terms of population in the next 20 years.
India is expanding fast economically, but China is not standing still — even if China does stop growing, it still has a tremendous lead. So both in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, India will not surpass China in the next 20 years.
Militarily I would argue they are close to being on par (though that could be Indian chauvanism on my part)
Soft power - China leads in this respect, but India is trying to catch up and may
我的观点是，预测未来超过15到20年的事并不比随机猜测好多少。
在未来20年里，印度的人口可能只会超过中国。
印度经济正在快速扩张，但中国并没有停滞不前——即使中国确实停止了增长，它仍有巨大的领先优势。因此，无论从GDP还是人均GDP来看，印度都不会在未来20年超过中国。
在军事上，我认为他们接近于平等(尽管我认为这可能是印度沙文主义)
软实力——中国在这方面领先，但印度正试图迎头赶上
Amit Sharma, Telling what I know by self or others experinece.
On the heels of China posting its lowest GDP growth rate in almost 25 years, the International Monetary Fund released an update to its World Economic Outlook report predicting that India’s economy will overtake China in terms of its annual growth rate by 2016. The IMF released estimates predict that India’s economy will grow at 6.3 and 6.5 percent respectively over the next two years. This puts India’s projected growth in 2016 ahead of the organization’s estimates for China (which stand at 6.8 and 6.3 percent for 2015 and 2016, respectively), leaving India the fastest growing major emerging economy in the world. The IMF’s projections represent a substantial increase from the actual growth rates of the Indian economy in 2013 and 2014, when the economy grew by 5 and 5.8 percent respectively. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global economic growth at 3.5 and 3.7 percent in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
在中国公布了近25年来最低的GDP增速之后，国际货币基金组织发布了最新的《世界经济展望》报告，预测到2016年，印度经济的年增长率将超过中国。国际货币基金组织公布的估计数字预计，印度经济在未来两年内将分别增长6.3%和6.5%。这使得印度在2016年的增长预期超过了该组织对中国的估计(2015年和2016年分别为6.8%和6.3%)，使印度成为世界上增长最快的主要新兴经济体。国际货币基金组织的预测显示，印度经济在2013年和2014年的实际增长率大幅上升，当时印度经济分别增长了5%和5.8%。国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》预测，2015年和2016年全球经济增长率分别为3.5%和3.7%。
Mathew Cherian, I watch China as they drive the World Economy
I am not sure why this should be an issue among anyone let alone economists. Ultimate goal of econo.ics is to eradicate all dark forces, which include greed. Competition beyond ones need is greed. Then why should economists of all the people worry about India competing with China in this regard. Confusian China and Vedic India the yester world has more wisdom than just think of wasting their valuable times downgrading coherence. Unless J.M. Keynes was wrong in fixng the final state of every economic endeavour nations undertake as their ethical route to exst.
我不知道为什么这应该成为任何人的问题，更不用说经济学家了。经济的终极目标是旨在根除包括贪婪在内的所有黑暗势力。超越个人需要的竞争是贪婪。那么，为什么所有国家的经济学家都要担心印度在这方面与中国竞争。除非凯恩斯在修正每一个经济努力的最终状态时是错的，否则各国都将其作为生存的道德之路。
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