Swagatam Basu, lives in India
No matter what economists say, one has to be a realist and form his/her own opinion about predictive statements.
It is true that China and India are two of the fastest growing economies in the world. But what we should ask first is what do you mean by surpassing China? Is one purely talking about GDP of India or perhaps military might or dominance in the region as well as across the world.
What is probably the most widely accepted indicator of country and citizen wealth is the per capita GDP.
无论经济学家怎么说，每个人都必须是现实主义者，并形成自己对预测性陈述的看法。
的确，中国和印度是世界上增长最快的两个经济体。但我们首先要问的是，你说的超越中国是什么意思?是在说印度的GDP，或许是军事实力，或者是在该地区乃至世界的主导地位。
人均GDP可能是衡量国家和公民财富最广泛接受的指标。
Let's take a look at the per capita GDP of a few countries:
As you can clearly see, China's per capita GDP is 4.5 times that of India. So clearly India is definitely a long way behind.
让我们看看一些国家的人均国内生产总值:
中国的人均GDP是印度的4.5倍。所以很明显，印度肯定远远落后。
Going by these facts it is highly unlikely that India will surpass China anytime in the near future.
Of course I must say that these opinions are my own and I have not taken into consideration probable macroeconomic developments in the world. The greatest hindrance to India's development in the future is probably going to be the uncontrollable increase in her population.
The country is not growing as fast as it needs to sustain its population.
从这些事实来看，印度在不久的将来不太可能超越中国。
当然，我必须说，这些意见是我自己的，我没有考虑到世界上可能出现的宏观经济发展。印度未来发展的最大障碍可能是其人口不可控制的增长。
这个国家的发展速度还未达到维持其人口的需要。
Gary Sands, Lived in Shanghai 2006-2012, lives in Vietnam, written several articles on China
Maybe because India has more potential to grow given a low infrastructure base when compared to China’s vast number of airports, ports, subways, roads and highways. If India was successful in building airports, ports, subways, roads and highways, its GDP growth could surpass China’s GDP as infrastructure spending directly contributes to GDP and also helps other sectors grow like manufacturing for export.
也许是因为印度的基础设施较中国的机场、港口、地铁、公路和高速公路基础设施薄弱，因此印度有更大的增长潜力。如果印度在建设机场、港口、地铁、公路和高速公路方面取得成功，其国内生产总值增速可能会超过中国，因为基础设施支出直接贡献了GDP，同时也帮助其它行业增长，比如出口制造业。
Dimitar-Esperanto Berberu, Data Specialist at Berberu Alanytics (2001-present)
Surpass in what?
Economy is not GDP. By GDP PPP China has surpassed USa and will surpass it in nominal GDP.
在哪方面超越?
经济不仅仅是国内生产总值。按GDP购买力平价计算，中国已经超过美国，名义GDP也将超过美国。
Indians don’t even understand each other by using bad English instead of develo own standard language (like the Arab countries).
India used to be more powerful before the colonisation. It’s not united like China.
China used to be a big power
印度人甚至不能通过蹩脚的英语而不是发展自己的标准语言(比如阿拉伯国家)来理解对方。
在殖民统治之前，印度曾经更加强大。但它不像中国那样团结。
中国曾经是一个大国
The world is changing quickly, & China is getting more confident with the HUMAN CAPITAL, while the economist are confusing themselves with GPD (outdated measure used during WW2 for producing weapons productivity). By 2030 they plan to lead research & AI.
Soon we have to learn Chinese - or better, I believe that the world will need to adopt Esperanto as neutral communication CLEAR language.
China is the most active in the world with Esperanto Commerce centre.
世界瞬息万变，中国对人力资本越来越有信心，而《经济学人》却对GPD(二战期间用于生产武器生产力的过时指标)感到困惑。到2030年，他们计划领导研究和人工智能。
很快我们就要学习中文了——或者更好，我相信世界将需要采用世界语作为中立的明确的交流语言。
中国是世界上最活跃的世界语贸易中心。
T.A. Aadithya, works at Students
Population.
The one major factor. India adds about 20 million people an year to its population. China adds about 6 million every year owing to its one child policy. So by 2023 India is poised to become the most populated country in the world. By 2050 , there will be 1.6 billion Indians, while China's population will shrink. The more the people, the more GDP is generated assuming the Indian govt pulls it's shit together. Although still poor by world standard , India's sheer population makes it the third largest economy by purchasing power.
人口。
一个主要的因素。印度每年新增人口约2000万。由于实行独生子女政策，中国每年新增人口约600万。因此，到2023年，印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家。到2050年，印度人口将达到16亿，而中国的人口将会减少。人口越多，GDP就会越高。尽管按世界标准来看仍很贫穷，但印度的绝对人口使其成为按购买力计算的第三大经济体。
Demographics.
The other factor . India has a young population. The average Chinese is a decade older than the average indian . So there is an excess 100 to 200 million more people in China's workface than India. Most of India's youth are still studying or just started their careers to make a noticeable impact in the GDP. Also China's women are more involved in the professional world than India. Indeed there is a lot of untapped talent of millions of Indian women that if used properly can transform India to an economic powerhouse and can double per capita incomes. A lot of Indian women sacrifice their careers for family and husbands and this contributes nothing economically to the country. Per capita incomes of India will only rise if both the genders work and contribute equally.
人口统计数据。
另一个因素。印度人口年轻。中国人比印度人平均年龄大10岁。因此，中国的工人数量比印度多出1亿到2亿。大多数印度年轻人仍在学习，或刚刚开始他们的职业生涯，以对GDP产生显著影响。此外，中国女性在职业领域的参与度比印度高。事实上，数百万印度女性中有许多尚未开发的人才，如果使用得当，这些人才可以把印度变成一个经济强国，并使人均收入翻一番。许多印度妇女为了家庭和丈夫牺牲了自己的事业，这对国家没有任何经济贡献。印度的人均收入只有在男女平等的前提下才能提高。
Victor Tan, studied at Heriot-Watt University
I wonder why are Indians so obsessed nowadays to talk about India surpassing China rather than aspiring to surpass the US?
These flashy tables and statistics while making arguments look compelling is a pcs of waffle with very little meaning and has ignored the fundamental problems that impede Indian’s development.
India as it is today was a creation of british colonialism. It is so diverse and does not have a common lineage nor langauage, rendering impossible for any Indian leader to address this so called world biggest de ocracy in Hindi or any other language and be understood by the entire nation.
我想知道，为什么如今印度人如此痴迷于谈论印度超越中国，而不是渴望超越美国?
这些华而不实的表格和统计数据，虽然看起来很有说服力，但却毫无意义，而且忽略了阻碍印度发展的根本问题。
今天的印度是英国殖民*义的产物。它是如此多样化，没有共同的血统和语言，任何印度领导人都不可能用印地语或任何其他语言来向印度这个所谓的世界最大民*国家说话，并被整个国家所理解。
China, despite also experiencing diversity was already a unified country with common language since Qin Shih Huang Di (the emperor known for building the great wall of China) emerged as its ruler more than 2 thousand years ago.
What makes a nation great hinges on its population composition.
The caste system (though may have been constitutionally outlawed during the days of mahatma Gandhi) remained deeply entrenched in Indian’s society. This adversely impede the diaspora of the smartest or brightest genes within Indian society.
中国，尽管也经历过多样性，但自2000多年前统治中国的秦始皇起(修建中国的长城的皇帝)，中国已经成了统一的国家，使用通用的语言。
一个国家的伟大之处在于它的人口构成。
种姓制度(尽管在圣雄甘地时期可能被宪法禁止)在印度社会中根深蒂固。这反而阻碍了印度社会中最聪明或最好的基因的传播。
The Indian smartest and brightest often seek greener pastures outside India (like the Silicon Valley or Wall Street). Conversely it is also true the world brightest would chose not to come to India.
This explains why US despite only having around a third of either India or Chinese population remains world super power till date.
Being the world most populous country in time to come means nothing if birth of duds remains uncontrolled.
印度最聪明的人通常会在印度以外寻找更好的发展空间(比如硅谷或华尔街)。反过来，最聪明的人也不会选择来印度。
这就解释了为什么美国虽然只有印度或中国人口的三分之一左右，但迄今仍是世界超级大国。
如果低端人口的出生无法控制的话，那么在未来成为世界上人口最多的国家也毫无意义。
In essence you need quality population to generate quality growth.
China being the most populous nation since history of mankind did not make them perpetual superpower. The humiliation by more industrious (smaller) countries (notably Great Britain) for more than one and a half century since 1840 opium wars can attest.
Indian society in many facets remains extremely left skewed till this day compared to Chinese society.
India has never eclipsed china historically. For the above reasons I put forward, it never will.
本质上，你需要高质量的人口来产生高质量的增长。
中国是人类历史上人口最多的国家，但这并没有使他们成为永远的超级大国。自1840年鸦片战争以来的一个半世纪以来，中国被更勤奋(更小)的国家(尤其是英国)的羞辱足可以证明这一点。
与中国社会相比，印度社会在许多方面仍然极端左倾。
历史上，印度从未超越过中国。基于我提出的以上原因，它永远不会。
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