印度GDP将在2050年超过美国GDP? 美国可能阻止这种情况发生吗?

It is predicted that India’s GDP will overtake USA’s GDP in the year 2050? Are there any chances that America can prevent this from happening?

据预测，印度GDP将在2050年超过美国GDP。美国有可能阻止这种情况的发生吗?

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Quora评论翻译：

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45960.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://www.quora.com/It-is-predicted-that-India-s-GDP-will-overtake-USA-s-GDP-in-the-year-2050-Are-there-any-chances-that-America-can-prevent-this-from-happening

Sree Venkateswarlu Vemulapati, B Tech Engineering

I am not an Economist . But based on whatever I have learnt & understood , reports of this nature are to be seen as those hinting at the Potential based on some assumptions

With all the respect for the intellectual capital India accumulates every year , the possibility of India overtaking GDP of US in nominal terms or PPP terms is rather very remote

Sheer logic dictates that after attaining a level of GDP , even with the best of skilled people , Productivity etc , sustenance of growth rates of 6 % plus are difficult.

India is still decades behind US in Technology Development. Without achieving Technology Leadership close to US levels , is it possible to achieve higher GDP ???

India is not fortunate enough to have similar per Capita levels of Natural Resources

India also can not match US in people increasing their spend year on year , even with borrowing , to increase their quality of living

US is also fortunate that USD is the Currency used all over world and people /Govt all over the world wanting to buy US /USD bonds viz willing to finance the needs of US at a very low interest rate

As regards the specific question , the answer is

“ US I believe is not so much bothered about some other Country crossing their GDP , why should they care ? , but they will be more bothered about

how it impacts their interests viz , if it enables India to import a lot from US , if US market gets cheaper goods/services from India , if India pays through its nose to get new Defence gadgets , new technologies etc , if Indians enrich their Universities with Fee and academic standards etc

US will always calibrate their Protectionism in terms of taking in talent , allowing technology Transfer as suited to maxmise US interests

So issue is not preventing India from increasing their GDP but more of maxmising US Interests even if India’s GDP crosses that of US ?

If somebody is thinking whether it will diminish the Position of US in Geo-Economic - Financial- Technological Power Equations , the answer is the world is already learning to deal with multi polar , diverse power centres as per needed context

我不是经济学家。但根据我所了解到的情况，这只是基于假设的潜能。

恕我直言，以名义GDP或购买力平价衡量，印度赶超美国的可能性非常小；

在GDP达到某一水平后，即使拥有最优秀的技术人员、生产率等，维持6%以上的增长率也很困难；

在技术发展方面，印度仍落后美国几十年。如果技术水平不能赶上美国，GDP是否有可能超过美国???

不幸的是，印度拥的人均自然资源水平低于美国；

美国人每年都在增加开支，甚至通过借债来提高生活质量，在这方面印度也无法和美国相比；

美国也很幸运，美元是全世界都在使用的货币，世界各地的人/政府都想购买美国或美元债券，即愿意以很低的利率为美国提供资金；

关于这一问题，我的回答是：

我认为，美国不太在意其它国家超过其GDP，他们为什么要在意呢?，但他们会更担心以下方面：

这将如何影响他们的利益，即这是否将使印度从美国进口很多，是否能让美国市场从印度获得更便宜的商品及服务，印度是否会花大价钱购买新的国防设备、新技术；

美国将始终以吸纳人才为标准来衡量它们的保护主义，允许技术转移，以使美国利益最大化。

所以问题不在于阻止印度GDP增长，而在于让美国利益最大化，即使印度的GDP超过美国。

如果有人在想，这是否会削弱美国在地缘经济、金融和技术力量方面的地位，答案是：世界已经在学习如何根据形势应对多极、多样化的权力中心。

Ram Krishnaswamy

Highly unlikely. In fact, the US may increase the gap in absolute terms, given our present growth rate, taken as an average of the last 10 or 15 years to smooth things out.

Lets assume the following.

Present GDP. US - 20 Trillion, India - 1.40 Trillion dollars (approx).

200 GDP. US - 40 Trillion, India - 40 Trillion dollars (approx).

To achieve that, US needs to grow at around 2.2% compounded annually, while India needs to grow at over 11% every single year for 32 long years.

Given our population drag (not the demographic dividend we hoped for) and increasingly severe resource crunch and given the possible technological breakthroughs that are possible from the US (which will act as an accelerator for their GDP growth), we should fall further behind.

几乎不可能。事实上，考虑到美国目前的经济增长率，以过去10年或15年的平均增速计算，美国可能会增加绝对增速差距。

我们来做如下假设：

目前GDP：美国约为20万亿，印度约为 1.4万亿。

2050年GDP：美国约为40万亿，印度约为40万亿。

为了实现这一目标，美国需要以每年2.2%左右的速度增长，而印度需要在32年里以每年超过11%的速度增长。

考虑到我们的人口拖累(不是我们希望的人口红利)和日益严重的资源短缺，以及美国可能实现的技术突破(这将加速美国的GDP增长)，我们应该会更加落后于美国。

Taran Singh, studied at University of Jammu

Firstly it is very unlikely, for us to have even a slight chance of overtaking US economy , our GDP would have to grow at a pace of 8%+ for the next 30 years and that too assuming it does not slowdown which is highly probable. Also US would grow too between 1.5–3.0% .

Secondly if US wanted it could shut all our trading routes. No imports or exports by sea and most importantly no oil , our country would starve out of energy. Plus we have a trade surplus with them, if they decide to ditch our goods we would face a bigger loss.

Patriotism is fine and all but people need to realistic US isn't going anywhere this century, it will stay the strongest nation on the planet for a long ,long time.

首先，我们几乎不可能超越美国经济，我们的GDP在未来30年里必须以8%以上的速度增长，而且这也是在假设经济不会放缓的情况下，但经济放缓是非常有可能的。而且美国的增长率也会在1.5-3.0%之间。

其次，如果美国想阻止印度，它可以关闭我们所有的贸易路线。没有海上进口或出口，最重要的是没有石油，我们的国家将缺乏能源。另外，我们对美国有贸易顺差，如果他们决定抛弃我们的货物，我们将面临更大的损失。

爱国主义是好的，但人们需要认清现实。本世纪美国将在全球最强大国家这个位置上停留很长很长一段时间。

Kevin Donohue, B.A. Economics and Mathematics, Boston University

Assuming India adopts the appropriate institutions and policies to reach a level of living standards/GDP per capita close to that of developed nations, it will have a larger GDP purely by virtue of it’s large population, and there is nothing that can be done of it short of bringing in one billion immigrants or having one billion babies

假设印度采取适当的制度和政策来实现接近发达国家的人均生活水平及人均GDP，其GDP会凭借人口众多而变得更大，除了吸引10亿移民或生育10亿婴儿之外，基本无计可施。

Bharat Nadhani, former Ex Mg Director

It is expected that relationship between USA and India will be better.

Because, The Geo political situation is important to USA to counter with .

The animity with for USa is for the following reasons:

1.It wants to cature the South Sea.

2.They Copied the Fighter Aircraft of USA and other inteelct roperties of USA.

3.The Trade deficit with is large and growing.

on the other hand the position with India is not, nor India exports too much and Economies are more open to them.

So I think growth of both will be complementray and not competitive or frictionery.

India may be nearer but can not exceed the US Economy.

预计美国和印度的关系将会变得更好。

因为印度的地缘政治形势对美国来说很重要，可以与抗衡。

美国对的敌意有以下几个原因:

1.它想要占领南海。

2.他们抄袭了美国的战斗机和其它知识产权。

3.美国对的贸易逆差很大，而且还在不断扩大。

而印度的处境则不同，印度的出口不太多，经济也对美国更加开放。

所以我认为两者的增长都是互补的，而不是竞争或摩擦。

印度经济可能会进一步接近美国经济，但不可能超过他们。